COMMENT
Oil. Discovery of a tremendously huge deposit in the Gulf of Mexico. Doesn't change anything since there won't be meaningful production until 2016-2017. In the meantime, there is a 7%-8% decline rate, which means we are under the gun to replace 4 to 5 million barrels a day.
Unknown
TOP PICK
Very oil weighted. Likes the balance sheet and has a diversified portfolio of international assets. About 70% of the cash flow is generated from outside of Canada. Low payout and expects the distribution to be very solid and will continue after 2011. With the sale of Verenex (VNX-T) there are some good opportunities looking forward.
oil / gas
TOP PICK
Daylight Energy Ltd
Becoming increasingly positive on gas. Struggled a little with leverage over the last couple of years but have assembled an excellent land base in western Alberta and are chasing some pretty large gas targets that will give them a substantial drilling inventory. Some pretty good hedging. Acquiring Highpine (HPX-T) giving them a cash flow generating, oil weighted asset.
oil / gas
TOP PICK
NAL Energy Corp
Over the last couple of years have brought a little bit of sizzle into the mix with the acquisition of some Talisman’s (TLM-T) wells giving some high exploration potentially high impact drilling. Excited about the acquisition and continued growth of a land position in Alberta. Horizontal drilling is opening this play up.
oil / gas
STRONG BUY
A commanding presence in the Bakken play. Acquired a number of companies over the years. Recently converted to a Corp. and maintained the same cash flow, which is a net positive. Have about 1600-1800 drilling locations ahead of them and a considerable inventory of un-fractured stimulated wells. 7.6% dividend is sustainable for the medium term.
oil / gas
DON'T BUY
Obsidian Energy
Excellent resource base with some very promising properties including Seal. Running against a pretty steep decline curve, so every year have to replace about 40,000 barrels a day of production. Trying to do it with the balance sheet, which is fairly stretched.
oil / gas
BUY ON WEAKNESS
For a company of its size, it is fairly unique in that it has very visible production growth of probably 180,000 barrels going forward. Besides being the largest oil producer they are the second largest producer of natural gas. Would buy below $70.
oil / gas
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Bankers Petroleum
Very technically oriented team with a great track record. Have an operated access to 2 key heavy oil fields in Albania, one of which has total oil in place of about 4.7 billion barrels and a very low recovery factor to date. A lot of visible growth to come.
oil / gas
DON'T BUY
Opti Canada Inc.
Has been trial by fire. Did a fairly poor job of getting the SAGD project up and running. Time will tell if upgrader will function at full rates. Layered in a lot of debt. Surface issues in terms of water treatment and ability to generate steam. Just received a covenant waiver, which will probably buy time into the 1st quarter of 2010. Very little wiggle room.
integrated oils
COMMENT
Nexen Inc
NXY Cheap stock as execution has been particularly disappointing. There have been reserved write-downs in the Gulf of Mexico and a host of other problems including an 80% cost overrun on the Long Lake asset. Would Buy on deep pullbacks and sell on the rumours of a takeout.
oil / gas
COMMENT
Guide Exploration
Fairly mixed production between gas and oil. Views Puskwa oil portion as a sort of sustaining kind of asset with a cash flow that will ultimately be devoted to developing the eastern Montney assets. Considerable drilling inventory ahead of them. Always cheap because of the perennially high leverage and history of missing production targets. He is considering buying.
oil / gas
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Breaker Energy Ltd.
19 quarters of consecutive production growth but Q3 might break this. Likes the flexibility they have because of their asset base. As commodity conditions and prices dictate, they can toggle between oil and gas.
oil / gas
COMMENT
Blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average. Chart shows a head and shoulders formation with a neckline at around 9000 so he is expecting a pullback to this mark and then going up to 1100-11500.
Unknown
COMMENT
S&P 500. Expecting a decline by as much as 10%. Head and shoulders bottom formation has been forming for several months. Neckline of 900 has been broken which typically results in a pullback. This lines up with a seasonal pullback. Markets are a little overbought. Resistance is at 1300 and once head/shoulders is completed he thinks it can get there.
Unknown
DON'T BUY
50 day moving average is very compressed against the 200 and the momentum seems to be falling. Chart looks pretty flat and is not something that would excite him.
banks