TOP PICK
BlackBerry
(A Top Pick June 16/08. Down 36.96%.) Stopped out last summer at about $120, which would've made him down 16.78%. Bought back in mid-$50's in March and is still buying. Currently a lot of restocking because of lower inventories. Secondly, cost of phone parts are falling. Reporting earnings this week and he is guessing that gross margins could expand more than expected. Winning market share globally.
electrical / electronic
TOP PICK
Suncor Energy Inc
Likes their long life assets. Has lots of upside to production. Assuming they get the PetroCan (PCA-T) deal done, it becomes a much better company. They end up with very strong cash flows to fund future growth. Probably take $300-$400 million out of their costs SG&A as well as capital costs. Makes it a lower risk play with a very good balance sheet. You could buy PetroCan but if the deal doesn't go through there probably would be more downside on it.
integrated oils
TOP PICK
Very diversified revenue stream. Of the big infrastructure companies they probably have the least concentration in energy/energy services. Good pipeline of potential deals coming in front of it. Also gives global exposure.
contractors
PAST TOP PICK
Monsanto Company
(A Top Pick June 16/08. Down 36.85%.) Got stopped out of this. Now seeing competition in their Round Up product with cheaper alternatives creating some risk to their revenue lines. Farmers in general are being a little more careful with the money they spend.
agriculture
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick June 16/08. Down 65.55%.) Got out of all his energies in July/08.
oil / gas
BUY
Vale S.A.
Likes basic materials and particularly metals. Stocks he owns bottomed Oct/Nov/Dec well before the indices. Historically these are where smart money gets invested. Thinks ore prices will continue to strengthen.
other mines
BUY
Likes basic materials and particularly metals. Stocks he owns bottomed Oct/Nov/Dec well before the indices. Historically these are where smart money gets invested. Thinks ore prices will continue to strengthen.
precious metals
DON'T BUY
Frontline Ltd
Transport sector continues to have some challenges. Bulk shippers are very volatile. You have to be an active investor when you look at these companies. There is a fair bit of leverage in the business model.
Transportation
DON'T BUY
Dryships
A lot of risk in them at this point. Transport sector continues to have some challenges. Bulk shippers are very volatile. You have to be an active investor when you look at these companies.
Transportation
DON'T BUY
Dividend is probably sustainable. His focus is on market leadership. There is some challenge in telecoms. Would avoid the group. Relative strength has been falling through this rally.
telephone utilities
DON'T BUY
American Express
Has no exposure to credit card companies. There is a case to be made for global growth with either Visa (V-N) or American Express (AXP-N) but with savings rates rising, there could be a bit of a challenge from an earnings standpoint. Would prefer asset managers that could participate from a fee standpoint, or a custodian such as State Street (STT-N).
investment companies / funds
DON'T BUY
Visa Inc.
Has no exposure to credit card companies. There is a case to be made for global growth with either Visa (V-N) or American Express (AXP-N) but with savings rates rising, there could be a bit of a challenge from an earnings standpoint. Would prefer asset managers that could participate from a fee standpoint, or a custodian such as State Street (STT-N).
other services
COMMENT
US 10 Year Bonds: There is a debate going on in the bond market. Is rise in bond yields being driven by concerns around inflation or is it simply money rotating back into risky assets? Thinks we will see increases in long-term credit costs and the trend for yields would be higher. He has no US government bonds.
Unknown
DON'T BUY
Wonderful company and if you really want to own wireless, this would be a name to own in Canada. Thinks the bloom is off the rose in wireless at this point. Would stay away from this sector.
Cable
COMMENT
Palm Inc.
The launch they did has been quite successful so far. Not a threat to Research in Motion (RIM-T) or Apple (AAPL-Q) but do have a market opportunity. Don't have the backend to drive significant support for a lot of distribution channels. More of a momentum trade than anything.
electrical / electronic