Latest Expert Opinions

Opinions
Today :
5
Recent
experts :
Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 20, 2019
The market has bounced back quickly. He's surprised. It's like the last gasp; we've seen this before prior to past downturns. We had a sudden downdraft (December 2018), then a bounce (January-present), then things hit reality. Reality is tthere's a disconnect between high markets and economic realties around the world, particularly amid trade wars. Economists are lowering expectations for global growth. Be very cautious by holding more cash than usual, be careful what you invest in, and take profits. He expects no move by the U.S. Fed today, not in this market.
General Market Comment
March 20, 2019
The market has bounced back quickly. He's surprised. It's like the last gasp; we've seen this before prior to past downturns. We had a sudden downdraft (December 2018), then a bounce (January-present), then things hit reality. Reality is tthere's a disconnect between high markets and economic realties around the world, particularly amid trade wars. Economists are lowering expectations for global growth. Be very cautious by holding more cash than usual, be careful what you invest in, and take profits. He expects no move by the U.S. Fed today, not in this market.
Michael Sprung
President, Sprung Investment Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 20, 2019
Worth buying preferred shares? Be very short in the curve with preferreds. He wouldn't look at perpetual preferreds. Most preferreds are issued at a base price of $25, but they are extremely sensitive to interest rates. Look at reset-rate preferreds; they will roll their dividends up in the coming years. If they are called, they'd be called at the $25 price. Caveat: if a company runs into trouble and their dividends become questionable, yes, they may continue to be paid, but he's seen $25 prefers selling for $15--be very, very cautious. Example: Bombardier's preferreds have been all over the map.
General Market Comment
March 20, 2019
Worth buying preferred shares? Be very short in the curve with preferreds. He wouldn't look at perpetual preferreds. Most preferreds are issued at a base price of $25, but they are extremely sensitive to interest rates. Look at reset-rate preferreds; they will roll their dividends up in the coming years. If they are called, they'd be called at the $25 price. Caveat: if a company runs into trouble and their dividends become questionable, yes, they may continue to be paid, but he's seen $25 prefers selling for $15--be very, very cautious. Example: Bombardier's preferreds have been all over the map.
Michael Sprung
President, Sprung Investment Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 20, 2019
The market before today's U.S. Fed announcement was down, then it bumped up. Everyone was expecting one rate hike for 2019, but the Fed today announced none, and only one in 2020. When the dust settled, the only negative was in banks--fundamentally this new is not great for the banks, because they need higher interest rates--the yield curve is flat. The stock market liked the Fed announcement today. Yes, global growth is slowing, but it is still growing. REITs, utilities and consumer discretionary did quite well today. The U.S. and Canadian 10-year bond spread has never been wider because the U.S. has massive budget deficits. The past six years have reversed the norm where Canada's interest rates are higher than America's. Canada is in good financial shape vs. the U.S. and predicts this outperformance for the next 12 months. This flies against common thinking. Also, oil is reaching for a new recent high while Canadian oil companies have reduced costs to be more efficient. The oil patch won't ramp up, but be stable. Overall, he's not negative Canada like so many. He's bullish.
General Market Comment
March 20, 2019
The market before today's U.S. Fed announcement was down, then it bumped up. Everyone was expecting one rate hike for 2019, but the Fed today announced none, and only one in 2020. When the dust settled, the only negative was in banks--fundamentally this new is not great for the banks, because they need higher interest rates--the yield curve is flat. The stock market liked the Fed announcement today. Yes, global growth is slowing, but it is still growing. REITs, utilities and consumer discretionary did quite well today. The U.S. and Canadian 10-year bond spread has never been wider because the U.S. has massive budget deficits. The past six years have reversed the norm where Canada's interest rates are higher than America's. Canada is in good financial shape vs. the U.S. and predicts this outperformance for the next 12 months. This flies against common thinking. Also, oil is reaching for a new recent high while Canadian oil companies have reduced costs to be more efficient. The oil patch won't ramp up, but be stable. Overall, he's not negative Canada like so many. He's bullish.
Paul Gardner, CFA
Partner and Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 20, 2019
Housing measure introduced in yesterday's federal budget designed to help first-time buyers. Ottawa spent two years slowing down the hot real estate market and now it's trying to reverse it in a targeted way. Why not let the market do its thing? It shows confusion. Real estate lobbyists are problem at work here.
General Market Comment
March 20, 2019
Housing measure introduced in yesterday's federal budget designed to help first-time buyers. Ottawa spent two years slowing down the hot real estate market and now it's trying to reverse it in a targeted way. Why not let the market do its thing? It shows confusion. Real estate lobbyists are problem at work here.
Paul Gardner, CFA
Partner and Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Management
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 20, 2019
Extended duration treasuries. These are 30-40-year treasuries, which were affordable last year, but expensive now. He'd hesistate buying them, because the U.S. government is creating a massive deficit, so any downturn will get passed onto any treasuries. He's far more bullish in Canadian debt than American. Also, he doesn't see inflation coming back. Too risky to buy. Avoid.
General Market Comment
March 20, 2019
Extended duration treasuries. These are 30-40-year treasuries, which were affordable last year, but expensive now. He'd hesistate buying them, because the U.S. government is creating a massive deficit, so any downturn will get passed onto any treasuries. He's far more bullish in Canadian debt than American. Also, he doesn't see inflation coming back. Too risky to buy. Avoid.
Paul Gardner, CFA
Partner and Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Management