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Educational Segment Table


Signal Opinion Expert

2017-11-13

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Bitcoin: He thinks it is speculative.  It is a crypto currency.  It is money:  a store of value, a unit of account and a medium of exchange (the definition of money).  The intrinsic value of Bitcoin is nothing.  It is more likely to be zero than anything else.  GBTC-N is a fund that trades in Bitcoin as the underlying asset.  From a risk perspective, it is the highest risk category you could imagine.  GBTC-N trades at a 49% premium to the underlying currency.  Expect volatile ups and down.  He is negative on the outlook.  It could keep going up for years but it is a speculative vehicle and you should leave it alone unless you are a big risk taker as you are not owning the underlying technology.  It has no underlying value.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-11-06

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Volume on ETFs.  Consider ZEB-T which is high volume.  The underlying stocks each trade way more volume and especially the value.  ZJN-T is low volume, about 3k shares a day.  The top volume stocks in its holdings trade at quite large volumes in comparison.  If an ETF provider creates a unit, it is priced according to what it costs them to go out and buy all the stocks within it.  This concept is not well understood by the investing public.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-10-30

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  The Canadian Dollar.  It has been on a roller coaster ride this year.  The 2 year spread between US and Canadian is the highest correlation to the Canadian dollar.  Our bonds usually yield more than the US.  But back in 2015 that changed.  Short term this is a negative factor.  In the futures market, speculators in the Canadian dollar shorted this year but now are net long.  That potentially has some downside for the dollar.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-10-23

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Seasonality.  The seasonal pattern has not worked this year (Sell in May and Go Away).  There was no market correction in Sept./Oct.  Since we did not get a correction you might say we will not get much of a seasonal impact for the rest of the year.  He looked into history and over 30 years in years where we did not get that seasonal correction, the market just continued up and the seasonality in November December is even stronger, although sometimes the correction is just later in the year.  Seasonality is just one factor to incorporate into your investing decisions.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-10-16

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Richard Thaler won a Nobel price.  He is the best behavioral economist.  He spends a lot of time trying to get through to viewers and teach them how to make a better investment decision.  Richard is best known for the endowment effect where you value something overly when you already own.  You are reluctant to sell it below what you bought it at.  Even utility bills are giving you little nudges to help you make better decisions in the use of your energy. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-10-02

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  4. The Independent.  A lot of behavioral learning has been incorporated into the body of knowledge.  The independent is a BNN watcher, reads the paper and is interested in being involved in the investing.  These investors are susceptible to a self attribution bias – they take credit if it works and blame the other guy if it doesn’t.  It causes portfolios to be concentrated.  They should focus on diversification. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-09-25

BUY
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Fang Stocks ETF Recommendation.  FNG-N.  See his educational segment today.  When we go into ‘Risk Off’ you will see a lot of profit taking happening.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: Unknown

2017-09-25

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  3. The Follower.  Typically are interested in markets but don’t know a lot and are most interested in looking for a ‘tip’.  Their portfolios don’t have a lot of construction or diversification.  They suffer from regret aversion and hindsight bias.  They won’t make a lot of their own decisions.  The FANG stocks have a lot of these.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-09-18

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  2. The Preserver / Conservative.  They have typically done well in their business or career and have always been conservative.  As they get older they get TOO conservative.  They tend to have more fixed income.  Over the last 30 years they would get 6-7% returns.  Over the next 10 years you are looking at a return of 2.5% before fees with higher risk.  He does not think you can re-think what kind of investor you are. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-09-11

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?: 1. The Accumulator.  They have a confidence bias in what they do, but make common mistakes in investing because they believe they can control the outcome of the markets.  If you are a growth investor and focused on maximizing returns, you have to be aware you will have challenges.  E.g. AMZN-Q.  A compounded return of 37.5%.  When you look at all the ups and downs, look at the amounts.  You have to assume more volatility during corrections.  You have to ask if it is appreciate for you as an investor.  You have to be willing to sit tight every couple of years with a 30-50% correction.  You can’t get in and out repeatedly.  You have to understand what your emotional response will be.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-08-28

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Where Equity Markets Returns have come from.  Going back to 1970, real return has been 6.3%.  Breaking that down, dividends have been 3.4% points.  Margin and multiple expansion have been 0.5% and 0.1% percentage points.  But in the last 7 years those last two factors have been the most significant.  A 7-year forecast shows a loss of 3.9 on US large caps vs. a gain of 2.9% on emerging markets.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-08-21

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Financial Astrology.  A study that went back to look for correlation between solar eclipses and stock market performance said that there is none.  There are all kinds of financial astrologers.  One newsletter makes market calls off astrology and he does not give it weight.  There are all kinds of academic studies. The more sun there is the better markets do. There is correlation, but not causation.  That is the ultimate question. There is a guy who correlates full moons to markets with the idea of disproving any and correlation he could not disprove it. Gold tends to either change or accelerate in a full moon.  He recommends you don’t pay attention to it. Markets like wheat and corn are influenced by weather which is influenced by tides and those by the moon, so you have to be careful of that.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-07-31

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  How to Play the Canadian Dollar in Coming Months.  People are paying more and more attention to currencies.  In early 2015 Canada surprised us by lowering interest rates.  Now they have raised them.  It has had a meaningful impact on the Canadian dollar.  There are three factors for currency decisions:  (a) Oil prices (inverse); (b) Interest rate differential between CAD and US 2 year rate; (c) Net speculative positions in the Canadian dollar.  Oil could potentially move us up if it went up, but there are only a couple of months of potential increases left in this year.  We have probably seen the high end of the Canadian dollar last week.  It should settle into $.77.  He is playing it as a being in a new trading range.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-07-24

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational segment.  How to Play Earnings Season.  Next week is the big week.  Looking at Canada’s top 60 TSX companies, earnings should be up 11.3%, 47 should report higher earnings.  Base metals and energy are expecting the biggest percentage gains.  Look for those that had a loss last year at this time and report a profit this year.  The banks are expected to have robust earnings coming into this quarter.  The key in gold is how they calculate their future asset base. 

Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA & EquityClock.COM

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-07-17

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational segment.  The VIX.  It often rises in the summer, connected to a correction in the markets.  This year it could be a problem in Korea or a problem in the congress of the US.  Not everything goes down when you have a spike in the VIX.  Gold.  When the VIX spikes in July to October, so does gold.  We are seeing early signs of XGD-T bottoming.  Momentum indicators are starting to turn higher.  Stocks are moving off their 20 day moving averages.  There are early signs that gold has bottomed.  Look at bullion and stocks and pick the one that is performing the best.  It looks like gold stocks are the way to play the seasonal trade this year.

Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA & EquityClock.COM

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-06-26

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Robots.  A lot of boring jobs were replaced by computers and so a lot of jobs have gone away.  Amazon is breaking every space.  They could have cost a million jobs by now.  They are only going to get bigger and bigger in this space.  He feels there will be social problems coming.  From the mid-70s to today, the bottom 50% of people have seen no real growth in their incomes.  The next 40% have seen only a marginal growth.  The top 10% are all doing well.  BOTZ-Q and ROBO-Q are ETFs for robots and they have outperformed the world.  He will love them once we get a market correction.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-06-12

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  The US Yield Curve.  There have been three rate hikes: Dec/15, Dec/16 and then Mar/17.  The yield curve is the difference between the two year rate and the 10 year rate in the US.  We have seen a flattening of the curve following each rate hike.  Short term rates are rising while long term rates are falling somewhat.  This historically means that the market is anticipating a slowdown in the economy.  He would be shocked if we did not get a rate hike this week, but that should be it for this year.  Longer term rates will continue to fall.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-06-05

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Chart shown of Market Capitalization of the MSCI world metals and mining index vs. capitalization of GOOGL.  GOOGL is now worth more than the base metals sector of the entire world.  The metals and mining index has been coming down with a lot of it being the Chinese growth story tailing off.  Chinese growth is 100% fueled by Chinese debt.  China is the real catalyst for the next global downturn.  He has been watching Dim Sum Bonds.  It is the worst performing bond index in the world.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-06-05

BUY
Markst Vectors Steel Index E.T.F. (SLX-N)

See his educational segment.  The bump we saw in China is over.  China will grow at a much lower rate than the last couple of years.  He is playing SLX-N as the best infrastructure play as it is steel in the US.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $36.500
Owned: Yes

2017-06-05

DON'T BUY
BMO S&P/TSX Base Metals ETF (ZMT-T)

See his educational segment.  It is not a good buy.  The bump we saw in China is over.  China will grow at a much lower rate than the last couple of years.  He is playing SLX-N as the best infrastructure play as it is steel in the US.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $9.320
Owned: Unknown

2017-05-29

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Demographics. You have two natural drivers of growth:  Growth from population growth and growth from productivity growth.  From the sum of the two we get about 1.3% growth in the world.  We have a growth problem, despite all the money being spent in the world.  We are in a low growth world.  The vast majority of the growth in the world is from China, India and Africa.  But China is near finished growing.  AFK-N and INDA-N are ETFs he likes.  Buy on pullbacks.

Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-05-15

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment. He gets a lot of questions on hedging, and this is to show you his favourite indicators, and what are quite popular on the street for figuring out where the Cdn$ might go. A upper part of the chart showed the traded value of the Cdn$ over a two-year span. When it was going up, it indicated the dollar was weakening. The bottom part showed the interest rate differential 2-year US and 2-year Canada. As the differential was rising, the spread to US interest rates, the US yields more than Canada. Money tends to flow towards the higher yielding currency on average. With that in mind, the Fed is likely going to keep raising rates, which is a bit of a negative. However, compared to where the spread was when we were back at the extremes, we are now at the same level spread wise. The chart also showed the correlation of oil to the Cdn$, which pretty much followed. The chart also showed the speculative position in the futures market. Currently, we are at the highest level in terms of net speculative Shorts in the last couple of weeks. That tells him that there is an imbalance in the market. The loonie might be close to a bottom for at least the next 6-12 months. Going out to the end of 2020 on the futures curve on a crude oil chart, we are looking at pretty stable oil prices in and around $50 looking out 4 years.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-05-08

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  When you invest globally, currency is the most important consideration.  It makes a huge difference to your return.  He showed a chart of long term returns of international ETFs with and without currency hedges.  Currency explains about 70% of the difference in returns.  It is the biggest factor over the years.  This is not the best time to get into Europe except with a currency hedged, covered call ETF.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-05-01

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  The Fed in their meeting will debate this week how to reduce the debt. He thinks we are in a liquidity trap.  He does not think we can get back to 3% growth and they can’t raise interest rates much.  Looking at quarterly GDP going back 20 years, the chart has been falling constantly for decades.  The 34 quarters since the Lehman moment have seen us running at 1.5%.  Interest rates first fell dramatically in 2000.  The fed is thinking 3% is what we can get back to.  He does not think so.  The US yield curve 10 years compared to 2 years.  The curve is not saying there will be a recession.  Since they started raising rates the curve has been flattening, so the economy is not handling it.  Look at the fed balance sheet.  It has been flat since QE3 ended in 2014.  The annual GDP was last growing without deficits in 2000.  So the economy is very, very weak. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-04-24

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  US Government Shutdowns.  Valuations are high and this is a ‘risk-off’.  You want to be defensive if you can.  There have been 22 government shutdowns in history.  The most recent two had a small impact on GDP (0.1%).  The market historically gets nervous before a shut down and then is fine afterwards.  From a markets point of view it is a case of buying dips.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-04-17

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Hedging the Canadian Dollar.  Currency explains about 70% of the difference in returns between markets.  In Canada, the US$ is key.  Currency differences are caused by imports, exports and interest rate differentials.  We are range bound to 70-80 cents for the next few years.  You want to hedge when the Canadian dollar is at the low end of the scale (.73 or below).

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-04-10

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Why Long Bonds are the Best Way to Diversify your Portfolio.  You have to look at risk and return.  Long bonds have the same or less risk as equities.  You get a better yield from long bonds than from equities based on risk.  Long bonds are the most negatively correlated to equities.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: Unknown

2017-04-03

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  The French election is coming up at the end of April and is not priced into the markets.  There were two elections last year that did not go the way the pollsters predicted.  This is a market risk.  VT-N dropped as we got into the US election last year.  It went 5% below peak.  The Brexit decline was similar.  If we go to an Anti EU government in France it will be very negative for the markets.  ZWE-T is the way to play this.  He buys into dips, but is underweight.  If it gets back down to $19.40 you should get back into it.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-03-27

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  It is the 10th year anniversary of the show.  He often gets the comment that he is always bearish.  But he thinks he is optimistic.  He looks at the risk side before the returns side of investing.  Beta is the sensitivity to the market risk.  When he is considering buying anything he thinks about the risk index.  ZEB-T graph compared to the world index looked at the weekly return and then he finds the trend.  The slope of .65 tells him the sensitivity to the world index.  At this level about 50% is related to sector risk.  He decides how much of the decision relates to the world, or to sector or to the specific stock.  XEG-T is the Canadian energy sector, compared to the world it is more sloped, meaning it is more risky.  He needs to weigh the macro factors more in this case.  SU-T has a lower correlation to the energy sector because there is less risk and that is because of their refining business.  Energy is starting to look interesting now.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-03-20

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment: Long-Term Investing. This is on geopolitical and global macro, because a lot of global hedge funds macro views and look for themes in markets. This week, Canada has their budget. Global investors look at things like this and look for what is diverging and what is different, and is it good or bad compared to others. The US is cutting taxes, both corporate and personal, while Canada is raising taxes. Global money follows the flow of funds. Canada has net outflows on capital account, net outflows on current account, so we run trade deficits. There is less money coming into Canada so the global investors see that Canada is vulnerable and if they Short Canada as well as the currency, will the Bank of Canada raise rates? Investing in Canada has a lot to do with oil, and as oil goes, so goes the TSX.

If the budget is as bad as he thinks it is going to be, in terms of taxing capital and savings, you use inverse ETF’s. HBP 60 Inverse ETF (HIX-T) is an inverse play on the TSX 60. While Canada is somewhat cheap this year, it is only going to grow at 1.5% a year over the next 5 years, and only because they are borrowing money.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-03-13

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment: Market Drawdowns. What he calls “market noise” is a 5% correction or less. He looked at the peaks and the lowest lows in a 4-year business cycle since 1920. Looking at the drawdowns over the years, you can see the great depression, where 86% was the drawdown in US large caps. We’ve had several in the 50% range. However, the average surprisingly was 13.4%, and the average was only 10 months long. You tend to get a 5%-13% correction at least once a year, so it is pretty normal to get volatility in the markets. Drawing down a little further, he has a one-year version, which shows that we get more frequent declines. The interesting thing is, if we are down 13.4% from the previous peak, and we look out one year knowing that the bear decline is about 10 months, this is the time to start investing, to get aggressive once the markets are down. Your forward returns go up exponentially from a low point, compared to putting money to work at a high point. We are probably due for a downturn that is going to be about 24% at some point in the next year or 2, so he is playing defence because of that. Once we are down 13.4%, he’ll be thinking about buying.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-03-06

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Long Term Investor Psychology.  Per unit of gain in a portfolio, the psychological value diminishes as you get more.  The more money you start to lose, the more you increase your unhappiness per unit of loss.  When we get complacent after a period of gains, this is our biggest point of risk. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-02-27

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Diverging tax policy in the US and Canada and how to take advantage of it.  Trump is addressing a joint session of congress tomorrow night.  Trump is going to talk about tax, including border tax.  They may not have agreement about tax reform until Q4 this year or even early 2018.  They want the tax reforms to be revenue neutral.  He is far more bullish in his outlook for the US than Canada.  The Canadian dollar could get weaker.  PSU-T is a high interest savings account, but you would also make money on the drop of the CAD$ relative to the US$.  For more aggressive types you could play it with small caps in the US and an inverse position in Canada.  There is volatility ahead with ambitious estimates for earnings growth possibly not happening.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-02-13

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment. Using Stops. The value approach looks for a range of support and how you buy into it.  Anchoring is a behaviour where you want to try to get your money back.  That is the wrong way to think about it.  You should think about where you should put the money in a losing stock.  Get out of a position if it is not working.  You should have a plan on when to get out.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-02-06

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Measuring Risk and Reward.  Within 20 years the vast majority of money in the world will be run by computers.  The traditional portfolio manager will be gone.  E.g. SU-T, 25% of the sector, a big player.  Going back 10 years it has made nobody any money for 10 years.  It is up less than the dividend.  Buy it when it is cheap relative to the benchmark and the markets.  Figure out how much you need in your portfolio.  The price of oil is the most important factor in the stock price.  Looking at the 5 year chart it is incredibly overvalued.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-01-30

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Smart Factor ETFs.  Reducing portfolio risk.  The trend between actively managed mutual funds compared to what capital is going into ETFs show money is moving that way.  You can do asset allocation with ETFs and that is by far the most important consideration.  The bigger companies dominate the NASDAQ.  Three sectors make up half the index.  It is very concentrated and heavily weighted into a few stocks.  All smart factor ETFs beat the index.  They all have different volatilities.  You should use all of the indexing strategies in your portfolio. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-01-23

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Stop Losses.  Using stops in portfolios is a certain kind of style for people who do not understand diversification and are pure momentum players.  It is fine.  But the vast majority of guests on BNN are portfolio managers and have a long term horizon.  Being stopped out can be silly in that case.  He is going to do a series on them in his educational segment in the future. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-01-23

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Smart Factor ETFs.  Research affiliates.  He showed a graphic depicting smart factors that look at momentum, volatility, liquidity, profitability, etc.  If you calculate excess returns, on average over history about 40 years you average about 2.4% in excess return.  The average volatility is mostly less than the index.  A second graphic looked at cross correlation of factor returns.  If you put two together in a portfolio you get diversification. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-01-16

BUY
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Smart Beta ETFs.  Sustainable yield.  High dividend stocks can’t usually sustain the high dividends.  Sphere’s strategy aims to offer sustainable dividends.  You have to eliminate stocks from an ETF that can’t sustain high dividends.  They have a screen for these companies.  You lose a little yield, but greatly reduce volatility.  SHC-T is a Canadian sustainable high yield ETF.  They have US, Europe, Asian etc as well.  It is not always about the MERs. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2017-01-09

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  How to play the market if you are risk adverse in 2017.  Are Trump policies coming in or not?  Over the last 10 years the marginal tax rate for corporations has come down from 50% in 1955 to 35% recently.  Analysts expect 22% earnings growth from the S&P.  The PE of the S&P is 21 times.  It is a 23% world GDP economy.  The banks have been the big leader since the election.  It’s going to take a lot of interest rate hike to get the banks back to where they should be with interest rate spreads.  There is a new president, first term, new party.  The average pattern has half a percent gain.  We have already exceeded that.  The inauguration is pretty much the high point for the year.  Get into options late in the market cycle. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2016-12-19

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  When Stocks are Overbought or Oversold.  Look at the percentage of stocks above and below their 50 day moving average.  Below 20% (30% in Canada) is a buying opportunity and above 80% is a selling opportunity.  These give you signs of the market preparing to sell off or to go up after buying.  He suggests you hold off until inauguration day and then you have a good opportunity to take money off the table.

Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA & EquityClock.COM

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2016-12-12

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  How to Use Stop Losses.  It is part of risk management.  Look at your position sizing.  Do you have too much in one stock because it has done so well.  Knowing when to sell is a hard thing.  Look at the beta of your portfolio.  To exit, you could use a volatility stop (VSTOP – Google it).  ‘VSTOP’ is a calculated stop loss point that incorporates the volatility in the stock.  Look at moving averages.  You might sell if it breaks the 10 day.

Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI

Chief Portfolio Manager & Founder, Castlemoore Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2016-12-05

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Why the TSX outperforms in the early part of the year.  The Canadian market outperforms the US from December to the end of February.  It has to do with commodity prices, which move higher.  Crude oil is at the end of its seasonal weakness after which it moves higher.  Silver moves higher from December into March.  Copper moves higher from now until April.  Gasoline goes up from now until the beginning of March. 

Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA & EquityClock.COM

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2016-11-21

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Momentum and value in smart beta ETFs.  Vanguard has a couple of smart strategies.  They think smart indexing is an active strategy.  They debate Larry in disagreeing it is active in that it is a set of rules.  The Momentum strategy is benefiting from a behavioral bias in the market place where investors are slow to react.  The Liquidity strategy focuses on companies that are smaller and don’t trade as much, aren’t in the news as much and so may be undervalued.  Investors overpay for liquidity in the market place.  Less liquid names, also have more risk.  A quarter of Vanguards assets under management are actively managed.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2016-11-14

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Smart Beta ETFs.  First asset’s approach is to work with morning start.  They have been working on quantitative modeling with dates going back to the 1980s.  They created a screen.  They look for companies that are trading below net asset value and have growth potential.  They screen for companies with price momentum as well as earnings momentum while having value.  These two strategies since inception have extracted some of the better companies.  Over 2 years the two strategies together outperform 90% of the time and 100% of the time over 4 years.  VRX-T was in the momentum portion and was rebalanced on a quarterly basis and got trimmed back.  You could equal weight the strategies.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2016-11-07

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Smart ETFs - Multi-factor products.  iShares has a forecast on where things are going.  They see $1 Trillion US$ by 2020 and 2.5 by 2025 in these products.   There are two factors suggesting these forecasts:  They has the potential to disrupt active management; and the have the potential to address the challenges investors are facing in today’s market.  What is new about mult- factor investing is the technology. It is based on long term proven drivers of return.  Their approach of combining factors means you don’t have to forecast which is the winning factor of the future.  Value, size, quality and momentum are the four factors they combine into one investment solution.  If you look at F-class (compensation component of cost is removed) mutual funds they have a cost of just below 1%.  iShares multi-factor ETFs are 45 basis points.  It is more affordable.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2016-10-31

BUY
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Fundamental Indexing.  Market Cap indexes are the traditional way to do indexes and fundamental indexing looks at cash flow, profitability, dividend sustainability and so on.  It is a rules based approach that focuses on the strength of the underlying companies.  Market weight is a popularity contest.  E.g. Nortel.  It went from 3% to 30% of the TSX index.  It represents a key flaw of market weight investing.  You would have ridden it all the way back down.  VRX-T did something similar being 9% of the TSX 60 at its height.  Returns are better in fundamental indexing rather than market cap indexing.  It will not win over every part of the cycle but long term it wins.  Larry’s guest runs his screen once per year.  Running it more often incurs trading costs and so on.  Research shows you only run it once a year.  These funds have a few basis points more MER and are worth it.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: Yes

2016-10-24

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Smart Beta ETFs.  They are smart indexing products.  Low beta or volatility strategies address investor outcomes using Beta.  They look for low beta.  If you weight beta and ensure diversification across the market place, you get less risk.  Low beta is not expensive but in line with the market place.   There is also a ‘quality’ based set of ETFs.  They look at debt to equity to reduce volatility.  These ETFs are managed by computer and not actively managed by a portfolio manager.  You pay a bit more than a non-smart ETF.  The low volatility and higher quality strategies have historically done better through history.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2016-10-17

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  ‘Smart’ ETFs.  A Beta of 1 means ‘market’. They researched factors back to the 1950s and if you screen for these factors you can do better than market weighted portfolios.  You can pay a bit more, but you get a slightly better return.  Smart ETFs are rule based rather than actively managed.  This is the fastest growing area in ETFs.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2016-10-03

COMMENT
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Today's educational segment was pre-empted by an announcement by the federal government on housing.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: Unknown

2016-09-26

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Currency effects on your portfolio.  Over the next decade, average returns are going to be lower.  When you invest globally, currency is the most important consideration.  When the CAD$ is getting weaker, you are making money. However, when it gets weaker, it reduces profits.  With ETFs you can control the currency.  Currency explains about 70% of the difference in returns when investing globally. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2016-09-19

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  The market thinks the likelihood is 18% for a rate hike.  He thinks they will go for it this week, however.  They have not unexpectedly raised rates since 1994.  ’94 was the worse bond market we had for a generation.  This will not be similar.  It is all about the psychology of how they do it.  We will almost certainly get another recession in the next couple of years and Canada and the US will have to go to negative interest rates.  Economic numbers are getting worse, but the market has not reacted. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2016-09-12

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Increased Volatility Coming to the Markets.  There are lots of ways to measure it.  One way is to use the Bollinger bands.  It uses 20 days, or about a month.  The spread got down to below 2% for the longest period in decades recently.  We had ultra low volatility.  In history all the times it has fallen below 2%, we are in for a period of a market correction.  It does not help us to know how long the correction will be.  He believes it will be at least a couple of months.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2016-08-29

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  The US$.  The market changed dramatically after the Fed said the rates were to go up September and December both.  The Euro is 57.6% of the US dollar index, so it matters what Europe does.  The notion that currency doesn’t matter is wrong.  It is the most important factor when investing.  A rate hike will put downward pressure on commodities and upward pressure on the US$.  He thinks we re-test the Brexit lows over the next couple of months.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2016-08-22

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Why rates can rise and what to do to take advantage.  Bernanke has used this week’s speech in the past to change things.  Last week we had the minutes from the July meeting causing the market to see no raised rates.  Since then a number of Fed speakers have said it could change.  There is still only a 26% chance they raise rates in September.  He thinks the Fed are not considering the election in making interest rate increase decisions.  He thinks there is a much higher chance that rates go up in September.  He recommends sitting in US cash and make 3-4% while you wait.  DLR-T and PSU.U-T and SHV-N play the US dollar as well.  

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2016-08-15

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment – Fewer and fewer stocks are lifting the markets and this should concern investors.  Market breadth is an important concept.  He looks at stocks making new 52 week highs.  100 or more stocks is a lot of stocks to make 52 week highs.  The top 10 holdings in the S&P are 18% of the market and can lift it.  He showed a chart of the number of stocks making new highs over time.  The market is going up and the percentage of stocks making new highs is low compared to 2013-2015.  This is not a broad based rally but late cycle.  There are big risks for downgrades in the fourth quarter.  He compared the consumer cyclical and retailing.  The latter is not doing well but the big names are doing well and lifting the index.  You should look at what the whole market is doing.  It is not a robust trend 8 years into a bull market.  It is not a broad based rally so don’t chase it.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2016-07-25

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Concerns about the weekend’s G20 meeting.  They are agreeing to continue spending and not worrying about who is going to pay for it.  We need the growth pickup in the world, but the problem is the debt getting bigger.  150% of the world’s GDP has come from debt since the Lehman moment.  You can’t stimulate by weakening your currency, but that is what they are doing.  Infrastructure ETFs are very expensive right now.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2016-07-18

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Crisis for Savers.  In Europe in asset classes, there will be negative real returns.  They expect 4.3% in emerging markets.  The buy and hold world is going to be challenged for the next number of years.  Fixed income and treasuries are looking negative.  Small caps are looking like zero returns.  Higher volatility investments will have higher returns.  Most returns come from the currency of the country. 

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2016-07-11

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Earnings Season.  Brexit and so on will get pushed to the back burner temporarily.  The focus will be on earnings.  Revenue is important.  The S&P is expected to decline in earnings for the 5th quarter in a row.  It is expected to be down 0.8%.  Next year the expectation is that revenue growth comes back.  Technology and financials are expected to be bad for Q2/16, but to grow a lot in 2017.  Price to sales ratio.  In ’98 to ’00, markets doubled.  The price of the S&P vs. its revenue got to a little over 2.  We don’t have that same economic tailwind now.  The current ratio is 1.9.  When the price to sales ratio is this extreme, companies miss all the time in earnings.  There is a risk of a 10 to 15% correction.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

2016-07-04

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Is Italy Too Big to Fail?  Italian vs. European banks:  all banks across Europe are underperforming.  In Italy, 20% of all outstanding loans are non-performing.  The Spanish banking index has been dropping since 2014.  It is by no means free and clear for Europe.  This is a big challenge and it is not over by a long shot.  Markets are going to stay volatile for a long time yet.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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