Educational Segment | StockChase

Educational Segment Table


Signal Opinion Expert
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General Market Comment 

January 15, 2018

Educational Segment.  US$ exposure in your portfolio.  There is a perfect storm brewing: What the BOC will do, NAFTA, oil prices.  There is Canadian dollar risk.  He is fully exposed to the US$ at $0.80.  There is an 85% change they will raise rates in Canada on Wednesday.  The NAFTA agreement will allow Trump to cause a lot of problems without ripping it up.  He will use this against Mexico because he wants his wall.  There is a housing risk in Canada with the new rules combining with higher interest rates.  The Canadian dollar should be weaker rather than stronger.  Oil prices are being driven by the weaker US$.  He thinks they will pull back into the mid-$50s.  Go unhedged in ETFs for the next 6 months.

Educational Segment.  US$ exposure in your portfolio.  There is a perfect storm brewing: What the BOC will do, NAFTA, oil prices.  There is Canadian dollar risk.  He is fully exposed to the US$ at $0.80.  There is an 85% change they will raise rates in Canada on Wednesday.  The NAFTA agreement will allow Trump to cause a lot of problems without ripping it up.  He will use this against Mexico because he wants his wall.  There is a housing risk in Canada with the new rules combining with higher interest rates.  The Canadian dollar should be weaker rather than stronger.  Oil prices are being driven by the weaker US$.  He thinks they will pull back into the mid-$50s.  Go unhedged in ETFs for the next 6 months.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
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N/A
General Market Comment 

January 8, 2018

Educational Segment.  The ‘Melt Up’.  We are probably in the past phase of the market cycle and the market will probably ‘melt up’.  The final phase of the acceleration up before a bubble takes 3 to 3.5 years to play out and you get a proportional decline.  The start of this melt up was the election of Trump.  The S&P within 9 months to two years will peak out in 3400 – 3700 range and will end the ‘melt up’.  The change from previous market cycles is the amount of money in ETFs which affects advance decline lines.  He thinks caution prevails rather than chasing the market higher.

Educational Segment.  The ‘Melt Up’.  We are probably in the past phase of the market cycle and the market will probably ‘melt up’.  The final phase of the acceleration up before a bubble takes 3 to 3.5 years to play out and you get a proportional decline.  The start of this melt up was the election of Trump.  The S&P within 9 months to two years will peak out in 3400 – 3700 range and will end the ‘melt up’.  The change from previous market cycles is the amount of money in ETFs which affects advance decline lines.  He thinks caution prevails rather than chasing the market higher.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

December 18, 2017

Educational Segment.  Forecasts for 2018.  Looking back on 2017, he was looking for a disappointment, but the market has not been.  He has been running portfolios very defensively.  His global dividend strategy is almost 9%, which is not bad.  He focuses on better risk adjusted returns.  Should we step on the gas now with the US tax bill.  No, 8 years into a bull market he will remain defensive.  In the last couple of months we saw a dramatic downturn in the western Canadian select oil compared to WTI.  Pipelines are not getting enough oil down to the US, so all of a sudden we can’t get enough our landlocked oil to Asia, due to a lack of east/west pipelines.  Canada should underperform next year.  The housing market and rising interest rates will start to cool, which was the biggest contributor to GDP.  He does not think we get a recession next year.  2775 is his target for the S&P, a 4 to 6% return, and less for Canada.  You should focus on dividend strategies for next year.  He expects a 5-10% pull back next year.  We are in for some bumpier markets in the next couple of years.

Educational Segment.  Forecasts for 2018.  Looking back on 2017, he was looking for a disappointment, but the market has not been.  He has been running portfolios very defensively.  His global dividend strategy is almost 9%, which is not bad.  He focuses on better risk adjusted returns.  Should we step on the gas now with the US tax bill.  No, 8 years into a bull market he will remain defensive.  In the last couple of months we saw a dramatic downturn in the western Canadian select oil compared to WTI.  Pipelines are not getting enough oil down to the US, so all of a sudden we can’t get enough our landlocked oil to Asia, due to a lack of east/west pipelines.  Canada should underperform next year.  The housing market and rising interest rates will start to cool, which was the biggest contributor to GDP.  He does not think we get a recession next year.  2775 is his target for the S&P, a 4 to 6% return, and less for Canada.  You should focus on dividend strategies for next year.  He expects a 5-10% pull back next year.  We are in for some bumpier markets in the next couple of years.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

BUY
General Market Comment 

December 11, 2017

Gold.  He is a value investor and has been nibbling away on gold.  Don’t make it all of your portfolio.  See his educational segment.

Gold.  He is a value investor and has been nibbling away on gold.  Don’t make it all of your portfolio.  See his educational segment.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

N/A
General Market Comment 

December 11, 2017

Educational Segment.  Bitcoin vs. Gold.  Bitcoin was seen as possibly a gold disrupter.  The biggest cost of investing is the volatility in order to take the position.  Is Bitcoin appropriate?  He thinks it is a bubble that will break because it is worth nothing.  If you want to add it to your portfolio you have to understand if it will help you or hurt you.  Gold does not do the same thing as equities do.  It gives you a diversifying effect.  If you adjust it for risk and then compare to Bitcoin, there is a daily volatility to Bitcoin of 10% and so it is hard to add this to your portfolio and improve your chances of an increase to its return.  If you can stomach the ups and down, then maybe Bitcoin is appropriate for you.  He thinks Bitcoin is close to zero in value and it is just a bubble.  Block chain is a different story and has no relation to an investment in Bitcoin.  Don’t trade futures in Bitcoin because of the leverage.  Leave it to the professionals.

Educational Segment.  Bitcoin vs. Gold.  Bitcoin was seen as possibly a gold disrupter.  The biggest cost of investing is the volatility in order to take the position.  Is Bitcoin appropriate?  He thinks it is a bubble that will break because it is worth nothing.  If you want to add it to your portfolio you have to understand if it will help you or hurt you.  Gold does not do the same thing as equities do.  It gives you a diversifying effect.  If you adjust it for risk and then compare to Bitcoin, there is a daily volatility to Bitcoin of 10% and so it is hard to add this to your portfolio and improve your chances of an increase to its return.  If you can stomach the ups and down, then maybe Bitcoin is appropriate for you.  He thinks Bitcoin is close to zero in value and it is just a bubble.  Block chain is a different story and has no relation to an investment in Bitcoin.  Don’t trade futures in Bitcoin because of the leverage.  Leave it to the professionals.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

December 4, 2017

Educational Segment.  Are all the benefits of a tax reform package in the US priced into the US market?  He does not think this tax bill will help the people who voted for Trump.  After the 10 years are up, the top 1 and 0.1% income earners will get the benefits of this package.  The rest get almost nothing.  Trailing earnings and expected earnings for the S&P will increase 20% and 10% per year in earnings growth after the package.  There is a lot of good news priced into the market today.  There will be a sell-the-news effect when it is signed.  See his blog entry for today.

Educational Segment.  Are all the benefits of a tax reform package in the US priced into the US market?  He does not think this tax bill will help the people who voted for Trump.  After the 10 years are up, the top 1 and 0.1% income earners will get the benefits of this package.  The rest get almost nothing.  Trailing earnings and expected earnings for the S&P will increase 20% and 10% per year in earnings growth after the package.  There is a lot of good news priced into the market today.  There will be a sell-the-news effect when it is signed.  See his blog entry for today.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

November 27, 2017

Educational Segment.  Financial Literacy – Robotic Advisors.  Currently, the human advisor has to talk to the client and get to know them.  They propose solutions, implement them and then constantly monitor and adjust strategy.  Robotic advising services bring costs down.  The first step is best done with a human.  You need a trusted goto person.  It is hard to trust something you can’t look in the eyes.  The constant monitoring is best for the computers but explaining complex concepts or guiding the investor through difficult times still requires an advisor.  The advisor industry will be disrupted over the next decade by robot advisors.

Educational Segment.  Financial Literacy – Robotic Advisors.  Currently, the human advisor has to talk to the client and get to know them.  They propose solutions, implement them and then constantly monitor and adjust strategy.  Robotic advising services bring costs down.  The first step is best done with a human.  You need a trusted goto person.  It is hard to trust something you can’t look in the eyes.  The constant monitoring is best for the computers but explaining complex concepts or guiding the investor through difficult times still requires an advisor.  The advisor industry will be disrupted over the next decade by robot advisors.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

November 13, 2017

Educational Segment.  Bitcoin: He thinks it is speculative.  It is a crypto currency.  It is money:  a store of value, a unit of account and a medium of exchange (the definition of money).  The intrinsic value of Bitcoin is nothing.  It is more likely to be zero than anything else.  GBTC-N is a fund that trades in Bitcoin as the underlying asset.  From a risk perspective, it is the highest risk category you could imagine.  GBTC-N trades at a 49% premium to the underlying currency.  Expect volatile ups and down.  He is negative on the outlook.  It could keep going up for years but it is a speculative vehicle and you should leave it alone unless you are a big risk taker as you are not owning the underlying technology.  It has no underlying value.

Educational Segment.  Bitcoin: He thinks it is speculative.  It is a crypto currency.  It is money:  a store of value, a unit of account and a medium of exchange (the definition of money).  The intrinsic value of Bitcoin is nothing.  It is more likely to be zero than anything else.  GBTC-N is a fund that trades in Bitcoin as the underlying asset.  From a risk perspective, it is the highest risk category you could imagine.  GBTC-N trades at a 49% premium to the underlying currency.  Expect volatile ups and down.  He is negative on the outlook.  It could keep going up for years but it is a speculative vehicle and you should leave it alone unless you are a big risk taker as you are not owning the underlying technology.  It has no underlying value.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

November 6, 2017

Educational Segment.  Volume on ETFs.  Consider ZEB-T which is high volume.  The underlying stocks each trade way more volume and especially the value.  ZJN-T is low volume, about 3k shares a day.  The top volume stocks in its holdings trade at quite large volumes in comparison.  If an ETF provider creates a unit, it is priced according to what it costs them to go out and buy all the stocks within it.  This concept is not well understood by the investing public.

Educational Segment.  Volume on ETFs.  Consider ZEB-T which is high volume.  The underlying stocks each trade way more volume and especially the value.  ZJN-T is low volume, about 3k shares a day.  The top volume stocks in its holdings trade at quite large volumes in comparison.  If an ETF provider creates a unit, it is priced according to what it costs them to go out and buy all the stocks within it.  This concept is not well understood by the investing public.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

October 30, 2017

Educational Segment.  The Canadian Dollar.  It has been on a roller coaster ride this year.  The 2 year spread between US and Canadian is the highest correlation to the Canadian dollar.  Our bonds usually yield more than the US.  But back in 2015 that changed.  Short term this is a negative factor.  In the futures market, speculators in the Canadian dollar shorted this year but now are net long.  That potentially has some downside for the dollar.

Educational Segment.  The Canadian Dollar.  It has been on a roller coaster ride this year.  The 2 year spread between US and Canadian is the highest correlation to the Canadian dollar.  Our bonds usually yield more than the US.  But back in 2015 that changed.  Short term this is a negative factor.  In the futures market, speculators in the Canadian dollar shorted this year but now are net long.  That potentially has some downside for the dollar.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

October 23, 2017

Educational Segment.  Seasonality.  The seasonal pattern has not worked this year (Sell in May and Go Away).  There was no market correction in Sept./Oct.  Since we did not get a correction you might say we will not get much of a seasonal impact for the rest of the year.  He looked into history and over 30 years in years where we did not get that seasonal correction, the market just continued up and the seasonality in November December is even stronger, although sometimes the correction is just later in the year.  Seasonality is just one factor to incorporate into your investing decisions.

Educational Segment.  Seasonality.  The seasonal pattern has not worked this year (Sell in May and Go Away).  There was no market correction in Sept./Oct.  Since we did not get a correction you might say we will not get much of a seasonal impact for the rest of the year.  He looked into history and over 30 years in years where we did not get that seasonal correction, the market just continued up and the seasonality in November December is even stronger, although sometimes the correction is just later in the year.  Seasonality is just one factor to incorporate into your investing decisions.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

October 16, 2017

Educational Segment.  Richard Thaler won a Nobel price.  He is the best behavioral economist.  He spends a lot of time trying to get through to viewers and teach them how to make a better investment decision.  Richard is best known for the endowment effect where you value something overly when you already own.  You are reluctant to sell it below what you bought it at.  Even utility bills are giving you little nudges to help you make better decisions in the use of your energy. 

Educational Segment.  Richard Thaler won a Nobel price.  He is the best behavioral economist.  He spends a lot of time trying to get through to viewers and teach them how to make a better investment decision.  Richard is best known for the endowment effect where you value something overly when you already own.  You are reluctant to sell it below what you bought it at.  Even utility bills are giving you little nudges to help you make better decisions in the use of your energy. 

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

October 2, 2017

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  4. The Independent.  A lot of behavioral learning has been incorporated into the body of knowledge.  The independent is a BNN watcher, reads the paper and is interested in being involved in the investing.  These investors are susceptible to a self attribution bias – they take credit if it works and blame the other guy if it doesn’t.  It causes portfolios to be concentrated.  They should focus on diversification. 

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  4. The Independent.  A lot of behavioral learning has been incorporated into the body of knowledge.  The independent is a BNN watcher, reads the paper and is interested in being involved in the investing.  These investors are susceptible to a self attribution bias – they take credit if it works and blame the other guy if it doesn’t.  It causes portfolios to be concentrated.  They should focus on diversification. 

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

BUY
General Market Comment 

September 25, 2017

Fang Stocks ETF Recommendation.  FNG-N.  See his educational segment today.  When we go into ‘Risk Off’ you will see a lot of profit taking happening.

Fang Stocks ETF Recommendation.  FNG-N.  See his educational segment today.  When we go into ‘Risk Off’ you will see a lot of profit taking happening.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

N/A
General Market Comment 

September 25, 2017

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  3. The Follower.  Typically are interested in markets but don’t know a lot and are most interested in looking for a ‘tip’.  Their portfolios don’t have a lot of construction or diversification.  They suffer from regret aversion and hindsight bias.  They won’t make a lot of their own decisions.  The FANG stocks have a lot of these.

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  3. The Follower.  Typically are interested in markets but don’t know a lot and are most interested in looking for a ‘tip’.  Their portfolios don’t have a lot of construction or diversification.  They suffer from regret aversion and hindsight bias.  They won’t make a lot of their own decisions.  The FANG stocks have a lot of these.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

September 18, 2017

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  2. The Preserver / Conservative.  They have typically done well in their business or career and have always been conservative.  As they get older they get TOO conservative.  They tend to have more fixed income.  Over the last 30 years they would get 6-7% returns.  Over the next 10 years you are looking at a return of 2.5% before fees with higher risk.  He does not think you can re-think what kind of investor you are. 

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?:  2. The Preserver / Conservative.  They have typically done well in their business or career and have always been conservative.  As they get older they get TOO conservative.  They tend to have more fixed income.  Over the last 30 years they would get 6-7% returns.  Over the next 10 years you are looking at a return of 2.5% before fees with higher risk.  He does not think you can re-think what kind of investor you are. 

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

September 11, 2017

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?: 1. The Accumulator.  They have a confidence bias in what they do, but make common mistakes in investing because they believe they can control the outcome of the markets.  If you are a growth investor and focused on maximizing returns, you have to be aware you will have challenges.  E.g. AMZN-Q.  A compounded return of 37.5%.  When you look at all the ups and downs, look at the amounts.  You have to assume more volatility during corrections.  You have to ask if it is appreciate for you as an investor.  You have to be willing to sit tight every couple of years with a 30-50% correction.  You can’t get in and out repeatedly.  You have to understand what your emotional response will be.

Educational Segment.  (weekly series) What Investor Personality Are You?: 1. The Accumulator.  They have a confidence bias in what they do, but make common mistakes in investing because they believe they can control the outcome of the markets.  If you are a growth investor and focused on maximizing returns, you have to be aware you will have challenges.  E.g. AMZN-Q.  A compounded return of 37.5%.  When you look at all the ups and downs, look at the amounts.  You have to assume more volatility during corrections.  You have to ask if it is appreciate for you as an investor.  You have to be willing to sit tight every couple of years with a 30-50% correction.  You can’t get in and out repeatedly.  You have to understand what your emotional response will be.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

August 28, 2017

Educational Segment.  Where Equity Markets Returns have come from.  Going back to 1970, real return has been 6.3%.  Breaking that down, dividends have been 3.4% points.  Margin and multiple expansion have been 0.5% and 0.1% percentage points.  But in the last 7 years those last two factors have been the most significant.  A 7-year forecast shows a loss of 3.9 on US large caps vs. a gain of 2.9% on emerging markets.

Educational Segment.  Where Equity Markets Returns have come from.  Going back to 1970, real return has been 6.3%.  Breaking that down, dividends have been 3.4% points.  Margin and multiple expansion have been 0.5% and 0.1% percentage points.  But in the last 7 years those last two factors have been the most significant.  A 7-year forecast shows a loss of 3.9 on US large caps vs. a gain of 2.9% on emerging markets.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

August 21, 2017

Educational Segment.  Financial Astrology.  A study that went back to look for correlation between solar eclipses and stock market performance said that there is none.  There are all kinds of financial astrologers.  One newsletter makes market calls off astrology and he does not give it weight.  There are all kinds of academic studies. The more sun there is the better markets do. There is correlation, but not causation.  That is the ultimate question. There is a guy who correlates full moons to markets with the idea of disproving any and correlation he could not disprove it. Gold tends to either change or accelerate in a full moon.  He recommends you don’t pay attention to it. Markets like wheat and corn are influenced by weather which is influenced by tides and those by the moon, so you have to be careful of that.

Educational Segment.  Financial Astrology.  A study that went back to look for correlation between solar eclipses and stock market performance said that there is none.  There are all kinds of financial astrologers.  One newsletter makes market calls off astrology and he does not give it weight.  There are all kinds of academic studies. The more sun there is the better markets do. There is correlation, but not causation.  That is the ultimate question. There is a guy who correlates full moons to markets with the idea of disproving any and correlation he could not disprove it. Gold tends to either change or accelerate in a full moon.  He recommends you don’t pay attention to it. Markets like wheat and corn are influenced by weather which is influenced by tides and those by the moon, so you have to be careful of that.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

July 31, 2017

Educational Segment.  How to Play the Canadian Dollar in Coming Months.  People are paying more and more attention to currencies.  In early 2015 Canada surprised us by lowering interest rates.  Now they have raised them.  It has had a meaningful impact on the Canadian dollar.  There are three factors for currency decisions:  (a) Oil prices (inverse); (b) Interest rate differential between CAD and US 2 year rate; (c) Net speculative positions in the Canadian dollar.  Oil could potentially move us up if it went up, but there are only a couple of months of potential increases left in this year.  We have probably seen the high end of the Canadian dollar last week.  It should settle into $.77.  He is playing it as a being in a new trading range.

Educational Segment.  How to Play the Canadian Dollar in Coming Months.  People are paying more and more attention to currencies.  In early 2015 Canada surprised us by lowering interest rates.  Now they have raised them.  It has had a meaningful impact on the Canadian dollar.  There are three factors for currency decisions:  (a) Oil prices (inverse); (b) Interest rate differential between CAD and US 2 year rate; (c) Net speculative positions in the Canadian dollar.  Oil could potentially move us up if it went up, but there are only a couple of months of potential increases left in this year.  We have probably seen the high end of the Canadian dollar last week.  It should settle into $.77.  He is playing it as a being in a new trading range.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

July 24, 2017

Educational segment.  How to Play Earnings Season.  Next week is the big week.  Looking at Canada’s top 60 TSX companies, earnings should be up 11.3%, 47 should report higher earnings.  Base metals and energy are expecting the biggest percentage gains.  Look for those that had a loss last year at this time and report a profit this year.  The banks are expected to have robust earnings coming into this quarter.  The key in gold is how they calculate their future asset base. 

Educational segment.  How to Play Earnings Season.  Next week is the big week.  Looking at Canada’s top 60 TSX companies, earnings should be up 11.3%, 47 should report higher earnings.  Base metals and energy are expecting the biggest percentage gains.  Look for those that had a loss last year at this time and report a profit this year.  The banks are expected to have robust earnings coming into this quarter.  The key in gold is how they calculate their future asset base. 

Unknown
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA &...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

July 17, 2017

Educational segment.  The VIX.  It often rises in the summer, connected to a correction in the markets.  This year it could be a problem in Korea or a problem in the congress of the US.  Not everything goes down when you have a spike in the VIX.  Gold.  When the VIX spikes in July to October, so does gold.  We are seeing early signs of XGD-T bottoming.  Momentum indicators are starting to turn higher.  Stocks are moving off their 20 day moving averages.  There are early signs that gold has bottomed.  Look at bullion and stocks and pick the one that is performing the best.  It looks like gold stocks are the way to play the seasonal trade this year.

Educational segment.  The VIX.  It often rises in the summer, connected to a correction in the markets.  This year it could be a problem in Korea or a problem in the congress of the US.  Not everything goes down when you have a spike in the VIX.  Gold.  When the VIX spikes in July to October, so does gold.  We are seeing early signs of XGD-T bottoming.  Momentum indicators are starting to turn higher.  Stocks are moving off their 20 day moving averages.  There are early signs that gold has bottomed.  Look at bullion and stocks and pick the one that is performing the best.  It looks like gold stocks are the way to play the seasonal trade this year.

Unknown
Don Vialoux

Research Analyst, TimingTheMarket.CA &...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

June 26, 2017

Educational Segment.  Robots.  A lot of boring jobs were replaced by computers and so a lot of jobs have gone away.  Amazon is breaking every space.  They could have cost a million jobs by now.  They are only going to get bigger and bigger in this space.  He feels there will be social problems coming.  From the mid-70s to today, the bottom 50% of people have seen no real growth in their incomes.  The next 40% have seen only a marginal growth.  The top 10% are all doing well.  BOTZ-Q and ROBO-Q are ETFs for robots and they have outperformed the world.  He will love them once we get a market correction.

Educational Segment.  Robots.  A lot of boring jobs were replaced by computers and so a lot of jobs have gone away.  Amazon is breaking every space.  They could have cost a million jobs by now.  They are only going to get bigger and bigger in this space.  He feels there will be social problems coming.  From the mid-70s to today, the bottom 50% of people have seen no real growth in their incomes.  The next 40% have seen only a marginal growth.  The top 10% are all doing well.  BOTZ-Q and ROBO-Q are ETFs for robots and they have outperformed the world.  He will love them once we get a market correction.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

June 12, 2017

Educational Segment.  The US Yield Curve.  There have been three rate hikes: Dec/15, Dec/16 and then Mar/17.  The yield curve is the difference between the two year rate and the 10 year rate in the US.  We have seen a flattening of the curve following each rate hike.  Short term rates are rising while long term rates are falling somewhat.  This historically means that the market is anticipating a slowdown in the economy.  He would be shocked if we did not get a rate hike this week, but that should be it for this year.  Longer term rates will continue to fall.

Educational Segment.  The US Yield Curve.  There have been three rate hikes: Dec/15, Dec/16 and then Mar/17.  The yield curve is the difference between the two year rate and the 10 year rate in the US.  We have seen a flattening of the curve following each rate hike.  Short term rates are rising while long term rates are falling somewhat.  This historically means that the market is anticipating a slowdown in the economy.  He would be shocked if we did not get a rate hike this week, but that should be it for this year.  Longer term rates will continue to fall.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

June 5, 2017

Educational Segment.  Chart shown of Market Capitalization of the MSCI world metals and mining index vs. capitalization of GOOGL.  GOOGL is now worth more than the base metals sector of the entire world.  The metals and mining index has been coming down with a lot of it being the Chinese growth story tailing off.  Chinese growth is 100% fueled by Chinese debt.  China is the real catalyst for the next global downturn.  He has been watching Dim Sum Bonds.  It is the worst performing bond index in the world.

Educational Segment.  Chart shown of Market Capitalization of the MSCI world metals and mining index vs. capitalization of GOOGL.  GOOGL is now worth more than the base metals sector of the entire world.  The metals and mining index has been coming down with a lot of it being the Chinese growth story tailing off.  Chinese growth is 100% fueled by Chinese debt.  China is the real catalyst for the next global downturn.  He has been watching Dim Sum Bonds.  It is the worst performing bond index in the world.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

BUY

See his educational segment.  The bump we saw in China is over.  China will grow at a much lower rate than the last couple of years.  He is playing SLX-N as the best infrastructure play as it is steel in the US.

E.T.F.'s

See his educational segment.  The bump we saw in China is over.  China will grow at a much lower rate than the last couple of years.  He is playing SLX-N as the best infrastructure play as it is steel in the US.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$36.500
Owned Owned
Yes

DON'T BUY

See his educational segment.  It is not a good buy.  The bump we saw in China is over.  China will grow at a much lower rate than the last couple of years.  He is playing SLX-N as the best infrastructure play as it is steel in the US.

E.T.F.'s

See his educational segment.  It is not a good buy.  The bump we saw in China is over.  China will grow at a much lower rate than the last couple of years.  He is playing SLX-N as the best infrastructure play as it is steel in the US.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$9.320
Owned Owned
Unknown

N/A
General Market Comment 

May 29, 2017

Educational Segment.  Demographics. You have two natural drivers of growth:  Growth from population growth and growth from productivity growth.  From the sum of the two we get about 1.3% growth in the world.  We have a growth problem, despite all the money being spent in the world.  We are in a low growth world.  The vast majority of the growth in the world is from China, India and Africa.  But China is near finished growing.  AFK-N and INDA-N are ETFs he likes.  Buy on pullbacks.

Educational Segment.  Demographics. You have two natural drivers of growth:  Growth from population growth and growth from productivity growth.  From the sum of the two we get about 1.3% growth in the world.  We have a growth problem, despite all the money being spent in the world.  We are in a low growth world.  The vast majority of the growth in the world is from China, India and Africa.  But China is near finished growing.  AFK-N and INDA-N are ETFs he likes.  Buy on pullbacks.

Unknown
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Managemen...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

May 15, 2017

Educational Segment. He gets a lot of questions on hedging, and this is to show you his favourite indicators, and what are quite popular on the street for figuring out where the Cdn$ might go. A upper part of the chart showed the traded value of the Cdn$ over a two-year span. When it was going up, it indicated the dollar was weakening. The bottom part showed the interest rate differential 2-year US and 2-year Canada. As the differential was rising, the spread to US interest rates, the US yields more than Canada. Money tends to flow towards the higher yielding currency on average. With that in mind, the Fed is likely going to keep raising rates, which is a bit of a negative. However, compared to where the spread was when we were back at the extremes, we are now at the same level spread wise. The chart also showed the correlation of oil to the Cdn$, which pretty much followed. The chart also showed the speculative position in the futures market. Currently, we are at the highest level in terms of net speculative Shorts in the last couple of weeks. That tells him that there is an imbalance in the market. The loonie might be close to a bottom for at least the next 6-12 months. Going out to the end of 2020 on the futures curve on a crude oil chart, we are looking at pretty stable oil prices in and around $50 looking out 4 years.

Educational Segment. He gets a lot of questions on hedging, and this is to show you his favourite indicators, and what are quite popular on the street for figuring out where the Cdn$ might go. A upper part of the chart showed the traded value of the Cdn$ over a two-year span. When it was going up, it indicated the dollar was weakening. The bottom part showed the interest rate differential 2-year US and 2-year Canada. As the differential was rising, the spread to US interest rates, the US yields more than Canada. Money tends to flow towards the higher yielding currency on average. With that in mind, the Fed is likely going to keep raising rates, which is a bit of a negative. However, compared to where the spread was when we were back at the extremes, we are now at the same level spread wise. The chart also showed the correlation of oil to the Cdn$, which pretty much followed. The chart also showed the speculative position in the futures market. Currently, we are at the highest level in terms of net speculative Shorts in the last couple of weeks. That tells him that there is an imbalance in the market. The loonie might be close to a bottom for at least the next 6-12 months. Going out to the end of 2020 on the futures curve on a crude oil chart, we are looking at pretty stable oil prices in and around $50 looking out 4 years.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A

Educational Segment.  When you invest globally, currency is the most important consideration.  It makes a huge difference to your return.  He showed a chart of long term returns of international ETFs with and without currency hedges.  Currency explains about 70% of the difference in returns.  It is the biggest factor over the years.  This is not the best time to get into Europe except with a currency hedged, covered call ETF.

Educational Segment.  When you invest globally, currency is the most important consideration.  It makes a huge difference to your return.  He showed a chart of long term returns of international ETFs with and without currency hedges.  Currency explains about 70% of the difference in returns.  It is the biggest factor over the years.  This is not the best time to get into Europe except with a currency hedged, covered call ETF.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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