Educational Segment | StockChase

Educational Segment Table


Signal Opinion Expert
N/A
General Market Comment 

July 9, 2018

Educational Segment.  How to assess revenue and earnings outlook.  The market is going put trade issues in the rear view mirror.  Revenue and earnings growth are going to be spectacular this quarter.  He always likes to look at revenue growth as a qualifier to earnings gains.  Buy-backs boost earnings per share.  About 50% of revenues come from foreign companies so US$ currency is a factor.  Energy, Tech and Materials should be the top sectors for revenue growth during FY 2018 as well as Q2/18.  If the markets don't make new highs over the next 2 to 3 months then the tops are in in the markets.

Educational Segment.  How to assess revenue and earnings outlook.  The market is going put trade issues in the rear view mirror.  Revenue and earnings growth are going to be spectacular this quarter.  He always likes to look at revenue growth as a qualifier to earnings gains.  Buy-backs boost earnings per share.  About 50% of revenues come from foreign companies so US$ currency is a factor.  Energy, Tech and Materials should be the top sectors for revenue growth during FY 2018 as well as Q2/18.  If the markets don't make new highs over the next 2 to 3 months then the tops are in in the markets.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

June 25, 2018

Educational Segment.  The Best Market Return Indicator.  The percentage of three asset classes that are part of the household assets.  The value of your real estate, value of your portfolio and all liabilities.  When everyone is in and have a high percentage of their household assets invested in markets, usually for the next 10 years, it is just less than 4% annualized.  We are in a period now where a high percentage of household assets are in the market.  This indicator has a 91% correlation to returns.  This indicates we are late in the cycle.

Educational Segment.  The Best Market Return Indicator.  The percentage of three asset classes that are part of the household assets.  The value of your real estate, value of your portfolio and all liabilities.  When everyone is in and have a high percentage of their household assets invested in markets, usually for the next 10 years, it is just less than 4% annualized.  We are in a period now where a high percentage of household assets are in the market.  This indicator has a 91% correlation to returns.  This indicates we are late in the cycle.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

June 18, 2018

Educational Segment.  Bitcoin.  It is not sustainable because of the energy consumption.  There are 4 thousand crypto currencies.  Half of a percent of all the electricity in the world today is consumed in making crypto currency.  He thinks eventually governments will control all digital currencies as they can more easily track transactions to tax them.  In the end he feels Bitcoin is worth nothing although it's energy cost is a couple of thousand.

Educational Segment.  Bitcoin.  It is not sustainable because of the energy consumption.  There are 4 thousand crypto currencies.  Half of a percent of all the electricity in the world today is consumed in making crypto currency.  He thinks eventually governments will control all digital currencies as they can more easily track transactions to tax them.  In the end he feels Bitcoin is worth nothing although it's energy cost is a couple of thousand.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

June 11, 2018

Educational Segment.  Bond Supply and Unwinding Quantitative Easing.  Part of the equity market anxiety earlier this year was related to volatility.  Inflation pressures are still building.  The Fed is unwinding the balance sheet and the ECB may announce they are doing the same thing later this week.  There is a VIX for everything.  He showed a chart of the VIX on 10 year bonds.  It has been declining for a number of years since 2010.  He thinks we will see bond volatility spike up again but not to the '08/'09 levels.  It will cause anxiety in the equity markets, however.  If we see equity markets weaken after 1 pm today then the supply of bonds will be a problem.  The ECB is probably not going to put net new supply into the market until 2020 but the question is who is going buy the Italian bonds.  He thinks it will be a big problem at some point.  The markets are underplaying the risks.  Corporate balance sheets everywhere are not in good shape.  S&P companies have never been more leveraged compared to revenues before.  There is probably going to be stresses in fixed income and equities as well, and at the same time.  It is not as simple as going into a balanced fund.

Educational Segment.  Bond Supply and Unwinding Quantitative Easing.  Part of the equity market anxiety earlier this year was related to volatility.  Inflation pressures are still building.  The Fed is unwinding the balance sheet and the ECB may announce they are doing the same thing later this week.  There is a VIX for everything.  He showed a chart of the VIX on 10 year bonds.  It has been declining for a number of years since 2010.  He thinks we will see bond volatility spike up again but not to the '08/'09 levels.  It will cause anxiety in the equity markets, however.  If we see equity markets weaken after 1 pm today then the supply of bonds will be a problem.  The ECB is probably not going to put net new supply into the market until 2020 but the question is who is going buy the Italian bonds.  He thinks it will be a big problem at some point.  The markets are underplaying the risks.  Corporate balance sheets everywhere are not in good shape.  S&P companies have never been more leveraged compared to revenues before.  There is probably going to be stresses in fixed income and equities as well, and at the same time.  It is not as simple as going into a balanced fund.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

June 4, 2018

Educational Segment.  Chinese 'A' share markets.  It's always been a closed market.  A couple of years ago some ETFs gave you exposure to these shares.  They are now getting into the MSCI emerging markets index.  This is going to become a bigger and bigger part of international markets.  It will add some volatility as well.  ASHR-N is the first Chinese 'A' share ETF.  In 2015 there was this big run-up in that market and then it collapsed back down again.  In the next number of months if the 'A' share market gets back into its range it will look attractive.

Educational Segment.  Chinese 'A' share markets.  It's always been a closed market.  A couple of years ago some ETFs gave you exposure to these shares.  They are now getting into the MSCI emerging markets index.  This is going to become a bigger and bigger part of international markets.  It will add some volatility as well.  ASHR-N is the first Chinese 'A' share ETF.  In 2015 there was this big run-up in that market and then it collapsed back down again.  In the next number of months if the 'A' share market gets back into its range it will look attractive.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

May 28, 2018

Educational Segment.  Hedging Credit Risk.  He is concerned about the level of debt in the world.  A high yield instrument involves taking the worst quality corporations out there.  When the economy turns, and we are getting close to that, these things can get pretty nasty.  In 2009 about a third of the high quality bonds were rated triple 'B'.  Today it is almost 50%.  Corporations have put their balance sheets in a place of high risk.  In '08 government bonds did very well and corporate bonds did not.  He is concerned now about corporate bonds.  You can make money when bonds come off by being in the right fund, such as the SJB fund, which is an inverse ETF.

Educational Segment.  Hedging Credit Risk.  He is concerned about the level of debt in the world.  A high yield instrument involves taking the worst quality corporations out there.  When the economy turns, and we are getting close to that, these things can get pretty nasty.  In 2009 about a third of the high quality bonds were rated triple 'B'.  Today it is almost 50%.  Corporations have put their balance sheets in a place of high risk.  In '08 government bonds did very well and corporate bonds did not.  He is concerned now about corporate bonds.  You can make money when bonds come off by being in the right fund, such as the SJB fund, which is an inverse ETF.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

May 14, 2018

Market.  It looks like the extreme populous Italian movement and the national front party in Italy are coming together to form a government.  This was thought to be the worst case scenario.  It looks like it will be negative and the bond market pressure could ignite again.  Spreads out of Italy are starting to widen.  It will play out over the next couple of weeks.  We could see an important technical level breached – see Educational Segment today.  This could be as disruptive as Greece several years ago.  Germany and France are not big enough to write a cheque for Italy.  If this Italian government forms they will want a lot of freedoms that they don’t have in terms of austerity.  NAFTA looks like it is in the final innings.  Best case is that they agree on something new but it looks like we will not get anything, which adds uncertainty to the markets.

Market.  It looks like the extreme populous Italian movement and the national front party in Italy are coming together to form a government.  This was thought to be the worst case scenario.  It looks like it will be negative and the bond market pressure could ignite again.  Spreads out of Italy are starting to widen.  It will play out over the next couple of weeks.  We could see an important technical level breached – see Educational Segment today.  This could be as disruptive as Greece several years ago.  Germany and France are not big enough to write a cheque for Italy.  If this Italian government forms they will want a lot of freedoms that they don’t have in terms of austerity.  NAFTA looks like it is in the final innings.  Best case is that they agree on something new but it looks like we will not get anything, which adds uncertainty to the markets.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

May 14, 2018

Educational Segment.  The Bull Market in Bonds.  The double bottom has one of the most efficacies of all.  In the last couple of years we have gone down to the low single digit yields and experienced a double bottom in 2011/12 and then again in the last couple of years.  4.72% is the price target for 10 year bonds to go to.  He thinks the world would fall apart of it ever got there.  The world cannot handle higher interest rates in his opinion.  He thinks 3.5% is the top.  Late 2019 or 2020 the yield curve inversion is signaling a recession.  As an alternative, he can see the bull market in bonds continuing as interest rates continue the previous down trend.

Educational Segment.  The Bull Market in Bonds.  The double bottom has one of the most efficacies of all.  In the last couple of years we have gone down to the low single digit yields and experienced a double bottom in 2011/12 and then again in the last couple of years.  4.72% is the price target for 10 year bonds to go to.  He thinks the world would fall apart of it ever got there.  The world cannot handle higher interest rates in his opinion.  He thinks 3.5% is the top.  Late 2019 or 2020 the yield curve inversion is signaling a recession.  As an alternative, he can see the bull market in bonds continuing as interest rates continue the previous down trend.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A

Educational Segment.  The 200 Day Market Moving Average.  We have a very interesting chart pattern in the broad US Markets.  We came down to the 200 day moving average last week.  We tested the 200 day and held.  The number of stocks above the 200 day is turning positive and the number of stocks below their 200 day are down.  The suggestion is that we go up before we go down.  Some of the other market breadth indicators are more positive also.  He thinks we will trade higher before we trade lower.

Educational Segment.  The 200 Day Market Moving Average.  We have a very interesting chart pattern in the broad US Markets.  We came down to the 200 day moving average last week.  We tested the 200 day and held.  The number of stocks above the 200 day is turning positive and the number of stocks below their 200 day are down.  The suggestion is that we go up before we go down.  Some of the other market breadth indicators are more positive also.  He thinks we will trade higher before we trade lower.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

April 30, 2018

Educational Segment.  Currency risk.  Over 20-50 years it will cancel out but short that that, they will trend.  Between 4.0 and 5.5% each year, currency either hurts or helps your performance regarding US dollar investments.  With ETFs you can hedge and non-hedge currencies.  With some other currencies in the world the effect can approach 9-11% either way.

Educational Segment.  Currency risk.  Over 20-50 years it will cancel out but short that that, they will trend.  Between 4.0 and 5.5% each year, currency either hurts or helps your performance regarding US dollar investments.  With ETFs you can hedge and non-hedge currencies.  With some other currencies in the world the effect can approach 9-11% either way.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

April 23, 2018

Educational Segment.  Digital Currency.  In Sweden in the 1660s they were the first to issue paper currency.  They are likely to be the first in the world to issue crypto currencies – a foreign, crypto backed digital currency.  He thinks central banks will control it.  The demand for paper currency went up after the financial crisis.  Crypto currency solves the problem with negative interest rates. 

Educational Segment.  Digital Currency.  In Sweden in the 1660s they were the first to issue paper currency.  They are likely to be the first in the world to issue crypto currencies – a foreign, crypto backed digital currency.  He thinks central banks will control it.  The demand for paper currency went up after the financial crisis.  Crypto currency solves the problem with negative interest rates. 

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

April 16, 2018

Educational Segment.  The yield curve.  The bond market is probably our best predictor of economic conditions to come.  Short term rates are coming up because the Fed controls the short term part of the yield curve.  They expect to raise rates more.  They are unwinding the size of their balance sheet and should increase longer term rates, but in recent weeks we have seen more pressure on the front end of the curve but the economic data is coming in weaker and the yield curve is flattening.  The yield curve inverts about 6 months before a recession.  As the Fed raises interest rates even more then we can expect the economy to slow.  We can buy into the dips at present, however.

Educational Segment.  The yield curve.  The bond market is probably our best predictor of economic conditions to come.  Short term rates are coming up because the Fed controls the short term part of the yield curve.  They expect to raise rates more.  They are unwinding the size of their balance sheet and should increase longer term rates, but in recent weeks we have seen more pressure on the front end of the curve but the economic data is coming in weaker and the yield curve is flattening.  The yield curve inverts about 6 months before a recession.  As the Fed raises interest rates even more then we can expect the economy to slow.  We can buy into the dips at present, however.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

April 9, 2018

Educational Segment.  Earnings Season.  The US is 52% f the world.  For the first time in memory, we have seen earnings expectations NOT come down much during the quarter. It means that what is going on in the markets is not what is not what is happening in earnings expectations.  It’s going to take a couple of quarters to see what effect current events will have on earnings.  We are probably going to see disappointments in the net interest margins of US banks.

Educational Segment.  Earnings Season.  The US is 52% f the world.  For the first time in memory, we have seen earnings expectations NOT come down much during the quarter. It means that what is going on in the markets is not what is not what is happening in earnings expectations.  It’s going to take a couple of quarters to see what effect current events will have on earnings.  We are probably going to see disappointments in the net interest margins of US banks.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

April 2, 2018

Educational Segment.  Will the FANG stocks take the Market Down.  Markets are a sum of the parts.  You have to look at the parts to know what it will do.  He focusing on FANG.  The FANG ETF plays the Internet and Tech.  There have been no net gains in a year.  You are not seeing higher highs.  50% of the NASDAQ is the FANG stocks.  Trump is pretty aggressive against AMZN-Q.  The trend is not broken on the QQQs.  We have to test the February low before this market can gain re-leadership and run (150 level on the QQQ).  AMZN-Q has had an unbelievable run.  When it breaks it is most likely to find support at the 2017 highs.  FB-Q can fall 15-20% more.  This could do a lot of damage and Trump will do that if he has his way.  AAPL-Q has already rolled over.  It has pretty important support at $150.  If it breaks it goes to $135.  GOOGL-Q may be a target also of regulators, failed to make a new high and broke to new lows.  But it would just be a correction in a longer term trend.  FB-Q has already rolled over.  $127.40 is the highs from 2017 to $106 is somewhere that it will find strong support.  It is a big question mark for the market.  If we get below the $150 on QQQ it would take us back to $145.  The FANG group is 15% of the S&P500 and would take it back to the lows and possibly under cut it.  The vast majority of earnings growth will come from Tech.

Educational Segment.  Will the FANG stocks take the Market Down.  Markets are a sum of the parts.  You have to look at the parts to know what it will do.  He focusing on FANG.  The FANG ETF plays the Internet and Tech.  There have been no net gains in a year.  You are not seeing higher highs.  50% of the NASDAQ is the FANG stocks.  Trump is pretty aggressive against AMZN-Q.  The trend is not broken on the QQQs.  We have to test the February low before this market can gain re-leadership and run (150 level on the QQQ).  AMZN-Q has had an unbelievable run.  When it breaks it is most likely to find support at the 2017 highs.  FB-Q can fall 15-20% more.  This could do a lot of damage and Trump will do that if he has his way.  AAPL-Q has already rolled over.  It has pretty important support at $150.  If it breaks it goes to $135.  GOOGL-Q may be a target also of regulators, failed to make a new high and broke to new lows.  But it would just be a correction in a longer term trend.  FB-Q has already rolled over.  $127.40 is the highs from 2017 to $106 is somewhere that it will find strong support.  It is a big question mark for the market.  If we get below the $150 on QQQ it would take us back to $145.  The FANG group is 15% of the S&P500 and would take it back to the lows and possibly under cut it.  The vast majority of earnings growth will come from Tech.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

COMMENT
General Market Comment 

March 26, 2018

Educational Segment. Should market similarities with 1987 have us worried?  Last week he saw a lot of technical comparisons being made to 1987, prior to the crash.  The recent corrections do look like the pre-crash period.  There were similar trade tensions and trends toward Central Bank tightening.  Despite this, he is predicting a pending crash.  Wrong policy decisions on trade by the Trump Administration could cause problems, however.   The crash in October 1987 caused a 40% retracement back to where the market started the year.  It took about three years for the market to recover back to the previous high – an annual return of about 14%.  There was a lot or market noise in between, but good returns in between.  He is concerned about the next recession, where he thinks there could be a market drop of 35-40%, when earnings fall and market multiples fall to below normal.  He is getting concerned about 2019, when he sees many fundamentals pointing to headwinds and greater risk of the next major recession.

Educational Segment. Should market similarities with 1987 have us worried?  Last week he saw a lot of technical comparisons being made to 1987, prior to the crash.  The recent corrections do look like the pre-crash period.  There were similar trade tensions and trends toward Central Bank tightening.  Despite this, he is predicting a pending crash.  Wrong policy decisions on trade by the Trump Administration could cause problems, however.   The crash in October 1987 caused a 40% retracement back to where the market started the year.  It took about three years for the market to recover back to the previous high – an annual return of about 14%.  There was a lot or market noise in between, but good returns in between.  He is concerned about the next recession, where he thinks there could be a market drop of 35-40%, when earnings fall and market multiples fall to below normal.  He is getting concerned about 2019, when he sees many fundamentals pointing to headwinds and greater risk of the next major recession.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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