Educational Segment
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Educational Segment Table


Signal Opinion Expert
N/A
General Market Comment 

September 17, 2018

Educational Segment.  The Longest Bull Market?  It depends on how you measure it.  If you measure it on a close to close basis we have not had a 20% decline since the bottom in 2009.  But if you measure it on a peak to trough basis, we had a 20%+ decline in 2011.  When you buy and sell, what you buy and sell is critical.  We are definitely late in the cycle.  He thinks you need to be cautious.

Educational Segment.  The Longest Bull Market?  It depends on how you measure it.  If you measure it on a close to close basis we have not had a 20% decline since the bottom in 2009.  But if you measure it on a peak to trough basis, we had a 20%+ decline in 2011.  When you buy and sell, what you buy and sell is critical.  We are definitely late in the cycle.  He thinks you need to be cautious.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

N/A
General Market Comment 

September 10, 2018

Educational Segment.  Breadth, lack thereof, and what it means to you.  It is terrible.  There are various ways to measure it.  He is talking about the US market being one of the only ones around the world to be in positive territory.  Canada has gone negative for the year as has much of the rest of the world.  Emerging markets seem a good buy because they are terribly cheap, but ACWX on London shows how world markets are going down.  The S&P index has been going up, but is marginally positive if you take out the top 5 stocks.  The markets tend to get narrower and narrower until some major event takes place.  Either US markets have to go down or emerging markets have to go back up.  Most likely it is the US market that will go down.  Stay away from emerging markets.  Consumer staples will do well in the fall.  The Canadian dollar does well compared to the US as we approach Christmas.

Educational Segment.  Breadth, lack thereof, and what it means to you.  It is terrible.  There are various ways to measure it.  He is talking about the US market being one of the only ones around the world to be in positive territory.  Canada has gone negative for the year as has much of the rest of the world.  Emerging markets seem a good buy because they are terribly cheap, but ACWX on London shows how world markets are going down.  The S&P index has been going up, but is marginally positive if you take out the top 5 stocks.  The markets tend to get narrower and narrower until some major event takes place.  Either US markets have to go down or emerging markets have to go back up.  Most likely it is the US market that will go down.  Stay away from emerging markets.  Consumer staples will do well in the fall.  The Canadian dollar does well compared to the US as we approach Christmas.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

August 27, 2018

Educational Segment.  Currencies matter.  Trade deals impact currencies.  After 1970 the US went off the gold standard and floated more freely.  In Canada/US, the average annual change is 5.39%.  Most years, currency is the single biggest item that defines your returns.  We are much weaker against the US dollar than we were in the '70s.  Against Germany, 70% of the return between Germany and the US was the currency.  ETFs allow us to hedge or not hedge and that is another reason he loves them.

Educational Segment.  Currencies matter.  Trade deals impact currencies.  After 1970 the US went off the gold standard and floated more freely.  In Canada/US, the average annual change is 5.39%.  Most years, currency is the single biggest item that defines your returns.  We are much weaker against the US dollar than we were in the '70s.  Against Germany, 70% of the return between Germany and the US was the currency.  ETFs allow us to hedge or not hedge and that is another reason he loves them.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

COMMENT
General Market Comment 

August 20, 2018

Educational segment: Long-term U.S. interest rates & the yield curve: A week ago, JP Morgan predicted 10-year rates would rise to 5%. Larry fell off his chair laughing. Jamie Diamond, CEO at JPM, is wildly bullish; he must believe that the American economy will be wildly robust to handle such high rates. The 10-year is 2.80% now. If it rose 100 points, the American mortgage and housing market would collapse. He doesn't think the economy is strong, because there's double the debt since the Recession. Larry feels we'll be in a low-rate environment for decades. Over the weekend, there was a lot of talking of shorting the 10-year. In fact, the net short 10-year futures contract has never seen a larger position since inception. It's massive now. There's talk of a big short squeeze with rates decreasing, not rising. Secondly, he expects the Fed to raise the flat yield curve in a year's time; the yield curve will invert by mid-2019, based on data from the New York Fed. Today, the chance of recession is 14%, but 25% is a warning level. Equity markets historically peak around 8 months before a recession starts. By the time a markets bottom--and when the Fed declared it a recession--the damage has been done, with a 29% drop in the markets. When the yield curve inverts, the market is within a quarter of the market peaking. So, the yield curve is the best indicator of a recession.

Educational segment: Long-term U.S. interest rates & the yield curve: A week ago, JP Morgan predicted 10-year rates would rise to 5%. Larry fell off his chair laughing. Jamie Diamond, CEO at JPM, is wildly bullish; he must believe that the American economy will be wildly robust to handle such high rates. The 10-year is 2.80% now. If it rose 100 points, the American mortgage and housing market would collapse. He doesn't think the economy is strong, because there's double the debt since the Recession. Larry feels we'll be in a low-rate environment for decades. Over the weekend, there was a lot of talking of shorting the 10-year. In fact, the net short 10-year futures contract has never seen a larger position since inception. It's massive now. There's talk of a big short squeeze with rates decreasing, not rising. Secondly, he expects the Fed to raise the flat yield curve in a year's time; the yield curve will invert by mid-2019, based on data from the New York Fed. Today, the chance of recession is 14%, but 25% is a warning level. Equity markets historically peak around 8 months before a recession starts. By the time a markets bottom--and when the Fed declared it a recession--the damage has been done, with a 29% drop in the markets. When the yield curve inverts, the market is within a quarter of the market peaking. So, the yield curve is the best indicator of a recession.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

COMMENT
General Market Comment 

August 13, 2018

Educational segment. NAFTA and the Canadian dollar. Looks like US wants a bilateral trade agreement. Thinks there will be a deal with Mexico before November. If Canada doesn’t take a deal, that adds to uncertainty. Trump will put the screws to us, and not sure there’s a lot we can do about it. A tariff changes supply and demand, and forces up the US dollar. When Trump got elected, he talked the dollar down. But once he started tariffs, the US dollar went on a tear, which is likely to continue. For the Canadian dollar, it’s been getting weaker since 2012. Around 1.38 (or 72.5 cents) is the downside risk for the Canadian dollar, wherever NAFTA ultimately gets settled. Energy will underperform, and Canada along with it. Doesn’t see it getting much weaker than that unless Trudeau government completely botches the trade negotiations.

Educational segment. NAFTA and the Canadian dollar. Looks like US wants a bilateral trade agreement. Thinks there will be a deal with Mexico before November. If Canada doesn’t take a deal, that adds to uncertainty. Trump will put the screws to us, and not sure there’s a lot we can do about it. A tariff changes supply and demand, and forces up the US dollar. When Trump got elected, he talked the dollar down. But once he started tariffs, the US dollar went on a tear, which is likely to continue. For the Canadian dollar, it’s been getting weaker since 2012. Around 1.38 (or 72.5 cents) is the downside risk for the Canadian dollar, wherever NAFTA ultimately gets settled. Energy will underperform, and Canada along with it. Doesn’t see it getting much weaker than that unless Trudeau government completely botches the trade negotiations.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

July 30, 2018

Educational Segment.  The Future of Economic Growth is Fake News.  Larry does not believe what the US government is saying to the media about maintaining growth rates of 3+-4%.  1950-1973 were the golden years with massive growth in productivity.  Today when the government spends money, you don’t get the same bang for the buck.  Getting 1.9% growth in the US would come from a deficit.

Educational Segment.  The Future of Economic Growth is Fake News.  Larry does not believe what the US government is saying to the media about maintaining growth rates of 3+-4%.  1950-1973 were the golden years with massive growth in productivity.  Today when the government spends money, you don’t get the same bang for the buck.  Getting 1.9% growth in the US would come from a deficit.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

July 23, 2018

Educational Segment.  Market Breadth.  Everyone knows earnings are expected to be good.  What matters most is what people actually do with their money, not reports.  He likes to look at the S&P 500 and its 200 day moving average.  We are getting close to the highs from earlier this year.  The return to risk ratio is not looking so good.  He then looks at the percentage of stocks that are trending above their 200 day moving average.  We are at 62% but were at 70-80% back last year when the markets were robust.  How many stocks are making new highs?  Last year the trend was robust and increasing.  It peaked in January.  This year the percentage is on the decline.  You currently have only a few stocks lifting the markets.  The S&P-500 absent the FANGs is not even up this year.

Educational Segment.  Market Breadth.  Everyone knows earnings are expected to be good.  What matters most is what people actually do with their money, not reports.  He likes to look at the S&P 500 and its 200 day moving average.  We are getting close to the highs from earlier this year.  The return to risk ratio is not looking so good.  He then looks at the percentage of stocks that are trending above their 200 day moving average.  We are at 62% but were at 70-80% back last year when the markets were robust.  How many stocks are making new highs?  Last year the trend was robust and increasing.  It peaked in January.  This year the percentage is on the decline.  You currently have only a few stocks lifting the markets.  The S&P-500 absent the FANGs is not even up this year.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

July 9, 2018

Educational Segment.  How to assess revenue and earnings outlook.  The market is going put trade issues in the rear view mirror.  Revenue and earnings growth are going to be spectacular this quarter.  He always likes to look at revenue growth as a qualifier to earnings gains.  Buy-backs boost earnings per share.  About 50% of revenues come from foreign companies so US$ currency is a factor.  Energy, Tech and Materials should be the top sectors for revenue growth during FY 2018 as well as Q2/18.  If the markets don't make new highs over the next 2 to 3 months then the tops are in in the markets.

Educational Segment.  How to assess revenue and earnings outlook.  The market is going put trade issues in the rear view mirror.  Revenue and earnings growth are going to be spectacular this quarter.  He always likes to look at revenue growth as a qualifier to earnings gains.  Buy-backs boost earnings per share.  About 50% of revenues come from foreign companies so US$ currency is a factor.  Energy, Tech and Materials should be the top sectors for revenue growth during FY 2018 as well as Q2/18.  If the markets don't make new highs over the next 2 to 3 months then the tops are in in the markets.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

June 25, 2018

Educational Segment.  The Best Market Return Indicator.  The percentage of three asset classes that are part of the household assets.  The value of your real estate, value of your portfolio and all liabilities.  When everyone is in and have a high percentage of their household assets invested in markets, usually for the next 10 years, it is just less than 4% annualized.  We are in a period now where a high percentage of household assets are in the market.  This indicator has a 91% correlation to returns.  This indicates we are late in the cycle.

Educational Segment.  The Best Market Return Indicator.  The percentage of three asset classes that are part of the household assets.  The value of your real estate, value of your portfolio and all liabilities.  When everyone is in and have a high percentage of their household assets invested in markets, usually for the next 10 years, it is just less than 4% annualized.  We are in a period now where a high percentage of household assets are in the market.  This indicator has a 91% correlation to returns.  This indicates we are late in the cycle.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

June 18, 2018

Educational Segment.  Bitcoin.  It is not sustainable because of the energy consumption.  There are 4 thousand crypto currencies.  Half of a percent of all the electricity in the world today is consumed in making crypto currency.  He thinks eventually governments will control all digital currencies as they can more easily track transactions to tax them.  In the end he feels Bitcoin is worth nothing although it's energy cost is a couple of thousand.

Educational Segment.  Bitcoin.  It is not sustainable because of the energy consumption.  There are 4 thousand crypto currencies.  Half of a percent of all the electricity in the world today is consumed in making crypto currency.  He thinks eventually governments will control all digital currencies as they can more easily track transactions to tax them.  In the end he feels Bitcoin is worth nothing although it's energy cost is a couple of thousand.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

June 11, 2018

Educational Segment.  Bond Supply and Unwinding Quantitative Easing.  Part of the equity market anxiety earlier this year was related to volatility.  Inflation pressures are still building.  The Fed is unwinding the balance sheet and the ECB may announce they are doing the same thing later this week.  There is a VIX for everything.  He showed a chart of the VIX on 10 year bonds.  It has been declining for a number of years since 2010.  He thinks we will see bond volatility spike up again but not to the '08/'09 levels.  It will cause anxiety in the equity markets, however.  If we see equity markets weaken after 1 pm today then the supply of bonds will be a problem.  The ECB is probably not going to put net new supply into the market until 2020 but the question is who is going buy the Italian bonds.  He thinks it will be a big problem at some point.  The markets are underplaying the risks.  Corporate balance sheets everywhere are not in good shape.  S&P companies have never been more leveraged compared to revenues before.  There is probably going to be stresses in fixed income and equities as well, and at the same time.  It is not as simple as going into a balanced fund.

Educational Segment.  Bond Supply and Unwinding Quantitative Easing.  Part of the equity market anxiety earlier this year was related to volatility.  Inflation pressures are still building.  The Fed is unwinding the balance sheet and the ECB may announce they are doing the same thing later this week.  There is a VIX for everything.  He showed a chart of the VIX on 10 year bonds.  It has been declining for a number of years since 2010.  He thinks we will see bond volatility spike up again but not to the '08/'09 levels.  It will cause anxiety in the equity markets, however.  If we see equity markets weaken after 1 pm today then the supply of bonds will be a problem.  The ECB is probably not going to put net new supply into the market until 2020 but the question is who is going buy the Italian bonds.  He thinks it will be a big problem at some point.  The markets are underplaying the risks.  Corporate balance sheets everywhere are not in good shape.  S&P companies have never been more leveraged compared to revenues before.  There is probably going to be stresses in fixed income and equities as well, and at the same time.  It is not as simple as going into a balanced fund.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

June 4, 2018

Educational Segment.  Chinese 'A' share markets.  It's always been a closed market.  A couple of years ago some ETFs gave you exposure to these shares.  They are now getting into the MSCI emerging markets index.  This is going to become a bigger and bigger part of international markets.  It will add some volatility as well.  ASHR-N is the first Chinese 'A' share ETF.  In 2015 there was this big run-up in that market and then it collapsed back down again.  In the next number of months if the 'A' share market gets back into its range it will look attractive.

Educational Segment.  Chinese 'A' share markets.  It's always been a closed market.  A couple of years ago some ETFs gave you exposure to these shares.  They are now getting into the MSCI emerging markets index.  This is going to become a bigger and bigger part of international markets.  It will add some volatility as well.  ASHR-N is the first Chinese 'A' share ETF.  In 2015 there was this big run-up in that market and then it collapsed back down again.  In the next number of months if the 'A' share market gets back into its range it will look attractive.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

May 28, 2018

Educational Segment.  Hedging Credit Risk.  He is concerned about the level of debt in the world.  A high yield instrument involves taking the worst quality corporations out there.  When the economy turns, and we are getting close to that, these things can get pretty nasty.  In 2009 about a third of the high quality bonds were rated triple 'B'.  Today it is almost 50%.  Corporations have put their balance sheets in a place of high risk.  In '08 government bonds did very well and corporate bonds did not.  He is concerned now about corporate bonds.  You can make money when bonds come off by being in the right fund, such as the SJB fund, which is an inverse ETF.

Educational Segment.  Hedging Credit Risk.  He is concerned about the level of debt in the world.  A high yield instrument involves taking the worst quality corporations out there.  When the economy turns, and we are getting close to that, these things can get pretty nasty.  In 2009 about a third of the high quality bonds were rated triple 'B'.  Today it is almost 50%.  Corporations have put their balance sheets in a place of high risk.  In '08 government bonds did very well and corporate bonds did not.  He is concerned now about corporate bonds.  You can make money when bonds come off by being in the right fund, such as the SJB fund, which is an inverse ETF.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

May 14, 2018

Market.  It looks like the extreme populous Italian movement and the national front party in Italy are coming together to form a government.  This was thought to be the worst case scenario.  It looks like it will be negative and the bond market pressure could ignite again.  Spreads out of Italy are starting to widen.  It will play out over the next couple of weeks.  We could see an important technical level breached – see Educational Segment today.  This could be as disruptive as Greece several years ago.  Germany and France are not big enough to write a cheque for Italy.  If this Italian government forms they will want a lot of freedoms that they don’t have in terms of austerity.  NAFTA looks like it is in the final innings.  Best case is that they agree on something new but it looks like we will not get anything, which adds uncertainty to the markets.

Market.  It looks like the extreme populous Italian movement and the national front party in Italy are coming together to form a government.  This was thought to be the worst case scenario.  It looks like it will be negative and the bond market pressure could ignite again.  Spreads out of Italy are starting to widen.  It will play out over the next couple of weeks.  We could see an important technical level breached – see Educational Segment today.  This could be as disruptive as Greece several years ago.  Germany and France are not big enough to write a cheque for Italy.  If this Italian government forms they will want a lot of freedoms that they don’t have in terms of austerity.  NAFTA looks like it is in the final innings.  Best case is that they agree on something new but it looks like we will not get anything, which adds uncertainty to the markets.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

May 14, 2018

Educational Segment.  The Bull Market in Bonds.  The double bottom has one of the most efficacies of all.  In the last couple of years we have gone down to the low single digit yields and experienced a double bottom in 2011/12 and then again in the last couple of years.  4.72% is the price target for 10 year bonds to go to.  He thinks the world would fall apart of it ever got there.  The world cannot handle higher interest rates in his opinion.  He thinks 3.5% is the top.  Late 2019 or 2020 the yield curve inversion is signaling a recession.  As an alternative, he can see the bull market in bonds continuing as interest rates continue the previous down trend.

Educational Segment.  The Bull Market in Bonds.  The double bottom has one of the most efficacies of all.  In the last couple of years we have gone down to the low single digit yields and experienced a double bottom in 2011/12 and then again in the last couple of years.  4.72% is the price target for 10 year bonds to go to.  He thinks the world would fall apart of it ever got there.  The world cannot handle higher interest rates in his opinion.  He thinks 3.5% is the top.  Late 2019 or 2020 the yield curve inversion is signaling a recession.  As an alternative, he can see the bull market in bonds continuing as interest rates continue the previous down trend.

Unknown
Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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