Educational Segment | StockChase

Educational Segment Table


Signal Opinion Expert
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General Market Comment 

May 14, 2018

Market.  It looks like the extreme populous Italian movement and the national front party in Italy are coming together to form a government.  This was thought to be the worst case scenario.  It looks like it will be negative and the bond market pressure could ignite again.  Spreads out of Italy are starting to widen.  It will play out over the next couple of weeks.  We could see an important technical level breached – see Educational Segment today.  This could be as disruptive as Greece several years ago.  Germany and France are not big enough to write a cheque for Italy.  If this Italian government forms they will want a lot of freedoms that they don’t have in terms of austerity.  NAFTA looks like it is in the final innings.  Best case is that they agree on something new but it looks like we will not get anything, which adds uncertainty to the markets.

Market.  It looks like the extreme populous Italian movement and the national front party in Italy are coming together to form a government.  This was thought to be the worst case scenario.  It looks like it will be negative and the bond market pressure could ignite again.  Spreads out of Italy are starting to widen.  It will play out over the next couple of weeks.  We could see an important technical level breached – see Educational Segment today.  This could be as disruptive as Greece several years ago.  Germany and France are not big enough to write a cheque for Italy.  If this Italian government forms they will want a lot of freedoms that they don’t have in terms of austerity.  NAFTA looks like it is in the final innings.  Best case is that they agree on something new but it looks like we will not get anything, which adds uncertainty to the markets.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

May 14, 2018

Educational Segment.  The Bull Market in Bonds.  The double bottom has one of the most efficacies of all.  In the last couple of years we have gone down to the low single digit yields and experienced a double bottom in 2011/12 and then again in the last couple of years.  4.72% is the price target for 10 year bonds to go to.  He thinks the world would fall apart of it ever got there.  The world cannot handle higher interest rates in his opinion.  He thinks 3.5% is the top.  Late 2019 or 2020 the yield curve inversion is signaling a recession.  As an alternative, he can see the bull market in bonds continuing as interest rates continue the previous down trend.

Educational Segment.  The Bull Market in Bonds.  The double bottom has one of the most efficacies of all.  In the last couple of years we have gone down to the low single digit yields and experienced a double bottom in 2011/12 and then again in the last couple of years.  4.72% is the price target for 10 year bonds to go to.  He thinks the world would fall apart of it ever got there.  The world cannot handle higher interest rates in his opinion.  He thinks 3.5% is the top.  Late 2019 or 2020 the yield curve inversion is signaling a recession.  As an alternative, he can see the bull market in bonds continuing as interest rates continue the previous down trend.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A

Educational Segment.  The 200 Day Market Moving Average.  We have a very interesting chart pattern in the broad US Markets.  We came down to the 200 day moving average last week.  We tested the 200 day and held.  The number of stocks above the 200 day is turning positive and the number of stocks below their 200 day are down.  The suggestion is that we go up before we go down.  Some of the other market breadth indicators are more positive also.  He thinks we will trade higher before we trade lower.

Educational Segment.  The 200 Day Market Moving Average.  We have a very interesting chart pattern in the broad US Markets.  We came down to the 200 day moving average last week.  We tested the 200 day and held.  The number of stocks above the 200 day is turning positive and the number of stocks below their 200 day are down.  The suggestion is that we go up before we go down.  Some of the other market breadth indicators are more positive also.  He thinks we will trade higher before we trade lower.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

April 30, 2018

Educational Segment.  Currency risk.  Over 20-50 years it will cancel out but short that that, they will trend.  Between 4.0 and 5.5% each year, currency either hurts or helps your performance regarding US dollar investments.  With ETFs you can hedge and non-hedge currencies.  With some other currencies in the world the effect can approach 9-11% either way.

Educational Segment.  Currency risk.  Over 20-50 years it will cancel out but short that that, they will trend.  Between 4.0 and 5.5% each year, currency either hurts or helps your performance regarding US dollar investments.  With ETFs you can hedge and non-hedge currencies.  With some other currencies in the world the effect can approach 9-11% either way.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

April 23, 2018

Educational Segment.  Digital Currency.  In Sweden in the 1660s they were the first to issue paper currency.  They are likely to be the first in the world to issue crypto currencies – a foreign, crypto backed digital currency.  He thinks central banks will control it.  The demand for paper currency went up after the financial crisis.  Crypto currency solves the problem with negative interest rates. 

Educational Segment.  Digital Currency.  In Sweden in the 1660s they were the first to issue paper currency.  They are likely to be the first in the world to issue crypto currencies – a foreign, crypto backed digital currency.  He thinks central banks will control it.  The demand for paper currency went up after the financial crisis.  Crypto currency solves the problem with negative interest rates. 

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

April 16, 2018

Educational Segment.  The yield curve.  The bond market is probably our best predictor of economic conditions to come.  Short term rates are coming up because the Fed controls the short term part of the yield curve.  They expect to raise rates more.  They are unwinding the size of their balance sheet and should increase longer term rates, but in recent weeks we have seen more pressure on the front end of the curve but the economic data is coming in weaker and the yield curve is flattening.  The yield curve inverts about 6 months before a recession.  As the Fed raises interest rates even more then we can expect the economy to slow.  We can buy into the dips at present, however.

Educational Segment.  The yield curve.  The bond market is probably our best predictor of economic conditions to come.  Short term rates are coming up because the Fed controls the short term part of the yield curve.  They expect to raise rates more.  They are unwinding the size of their balance sheet and should increase longer term rates, but in recent weeks we have seen more pressure on the front end of the curve but the economic data is coming in weaker and the yield curve is flattening.  The yield curve inverts about 6 months before a recession.  As the Fed raises interest rates even more then we can expect the economy to slow.  We can buy into the dips at present, however.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

April 9, 2018

Educational Segment.  Earnings Season.  The US is 52% f the world.  For the first time in memory, we have seen earnings expectations NOT come down much during the quarter. It means that what is going on in the markets is not what is not what is happening in earnings expectations.  It’s going to take a couple of quarters to see what effect current events will have on earnings.  We are probably going to see disappointments in the net interest margins of US banks.

Educational Segment.  Earnings Season.  The US is 52% f the world.  For the first time in memory, we have seen earnings expectations NOT come down much during the quarter. It means that what is going on in the markets is not what is not what is happening in earnings expectations.  It’s going to take a couple of quarters to see what effect current events will have on earnings.  We are probably going to see disappointments in the net interest margins of US banks.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

April 2, 2018

Educational Segment.  Will the FANG stocks take the Market Down.  Markets are a sum of the parts.  You have to look at the parts to know what it will do.  He focusing on FANG.  The FANG ETF plays the Internet and Tech.  There have been no net gains in a year.  You are not seeing higher highs.  50% of the NASDAQ is the FANG stocks.  Trump is pretty aggressive against AMZN-Q.  The trend is not broken on the QQQs.  We have to test the February low before this market can gain re-leadership and run (150 level on the QQQ).  AMZN-Q has had an unbelievable run.  When it breaks it is most likely to find support at the 2017 highs.  FB-Q can fall 15-20% more.  This could do a lot of damage and Trump will do that if he has his way.  AAPL-Q has already rolled over.  It has pretty important support at $150.  If it breaks it goes to $135.  GOOGL-Q may be a target also of regulators, failed to make a new high and broke to new lows.  But it would just be a correction in a longer term trend.  FB-Q has already rolled over.  $127.40 is the highs from 2017 to $106 is somewhere that it will find strong support.  It is a big question mark for the market.  If we get below the $150 on QQQ it would take us back to $145.  The FANG group is 15% of the S&P500 and would take it back to the lows and possibly under cut it.  The vast majority of earnings growth will come from Tech.

Educational Segment.  Will the FANG stocks take the Market Down.  Markets are a sum of the parts.  You have to look at the parts to know what it will do.  He focusing on FANG.  The FANG ETF plays the Internet and Tech.  There have been no net gains in a year.  You are not seeing higher highs.  50% of the NASDAQ is the FANG stocks.  Trump is pretty aggressive against AMZN-Q.  The trend is not broken on the QQQs.  We have to test the February low before this market can gain re-leadership and run (150 level on the QQQ).  AMZN-Q has had an unbelievable run.  When it breaks it is most likely to find support at the 2017 highs.  FB-Q can fall 15-20% more.  This could do a lot of damage and Trump will do that if he has his way.  AAPL-Q has already rolled over.  It has pretty important support at $150.  If it breaks it goes to $135.  GOOGL-Q may be a target also of regulators, failed to make a new high and broke to new lows.  But it would just be a correction in a longer term trend.  FB-Q has already rolled over.  $127.40 is the highs from 2017 to $106 is somewhere that it will find strong support.  It is a big question mark for the market.  If we get below the $150 on QQQ it would take us back to $145.  The FANG group is 15% of the S&P500 and would take it back to the lows and possibly under cut it.  The vast majority of earnings growth will come from Tech.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

COMMENT
General Market Comment 

March 26, 2018

Educational Segment. Should market similarities with 1987 have us worried?  Last week he saw a lot of technical comparisons being made to 1987, prior to the crash.  The recent corrections do look like the pre-crash period.  There were similar trade tensions and trends toward Central Bank tightening.  Despite this, he is predicting a pending crash.  Wrong policy decisions on trade by the Trump Administration could cause problems, however.   The crash in October 1987 caused a 40% retracement back to where the market started the year.  It took about three years for the market to recover back to the previous high – an annual return of about 14%.  There was a lot or market noise in between, but good returns in between.  He is concerned about the next recession, where he thinks there could be a market drop of 35-40%, when earnings fall and market multiples fall to below normal.  He is getting concerned about 2019, when he sees many fundamentals pointing to headwinds and greater risk of the next major recession.

Educational Segment. Should market similarities with 1987 have us worried?  Last week he saw a lot of technical comparisons being made to 1987, prior to the crash.  The recent corrections do look like the pre-crash period.  There were similar trade tensions and trends toward Central Bank tightening.  Despite this, he is predicting a pending crash.  Wrong policy decisions on trade by the Trump Administration could cause problems, however.   The crash in October 1987 caused a 40% retracement back to where the market started the year.  It took about three years for the market to recover back to the previous high – an annual return of about 14%.  There was a lot or market noise in between, but good returns in between.  He is concerned about the next recession, where he thinks there could be a market drop of 35-40%, when earnings fall and market multiples fall to below normal.  He is getting concerned about 2019, when he sees many fundamentals pointing to headwinds and greater risk of the next major recession.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

COMMENT
General Market Comment 

March 19, 2018

Educational Segment. Richard Arms, technical expert passing.  He was a legendary mentor for technicians.  The Arms Index was designed by him.  It looks at the number of stocks advancing and declining relative to their trading volume in a ratio.  When the Index exceeds 1 it implies more selling volume.  The current market action is telling us we are getting selling into strength.  He applied candlestick patterns to trading volume -- the width of the candlestick shows significance based on volume.  The sell-off of the S&P in early February indicated a potential reversal pattern.  Now, the sell-offs on recent highs are confirming we are seeing more selling into the up-tick rather than buying into the pullbacks.

Educational Segment. Richard Arms, technical expert passing.  He was a legendary mentor for technicians.  The Arms Index was designed by him.  It looks at the number of stocks advancing and declining relative to their trading volume in a ratio.  When the Index exceeds 1 it implies more selling volume.  The current market action is telling us we are getting selling into strength.  He applied candlestick patterns to trading volume -- the width of the candlestick shows significance based on volume.  The sell-off of the S&P in early February indicated a potential reversal pattern.  Now, the sell-offs on recent highs are confirming we are seeing more selling into the up-tick rather than buying into the pullbacks.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

March 12, 2018

Educational Segment.  Guest Tim O’Brian from DBRS.  Credit ratings try to look at the most likely scenarios.  They also stress test.  They try to get a reading on what the fundamental business strengths and challenges are plus financial risk profile.  From this they come up with ratings.  A stock can go up based on fundamentals but the credit rating may not change.  You can go to their web site to see all of their press releases on credit rates of companies.

Educational Segment.  Guest Tim O’Brian from DBRS.  Credit ratings try to look at the most likely scenarios.  They also stress test.  They try to get a reading on what the fundamental business strengths and challenges are plus financial risk profile.  From this they come up with ratings.  A stock can go up based on fundamentals but the credit rating may not change.  You can go to their web site to see all of their press releases on credit rates of companies.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

March 5, 2018

Educational Segment.  Volatility and uncertainty in political events around the world.  The commentary on the Italian elections was all about uncertainty.  The key test is whether the market can make a new high in the next few months.  We still have the risk of more volatility and of retesting the recent lows.  There is not a strong reason to price in a recession right now.

Educational Segment.  Volatility and uncertainty in political events around the world.  The commentary on the Italian elections was all about uncertainty.  The key test is whether the market can make a new high in the next few months.  We still have the risk of more volatility and of retesting the recent lows.  There is not a strong reason to price in a recession right now.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

February 26, 2018

Educational Segment.  Economic scenarios most likely in the coming year.  Interest rates will most likely rise.  Earnings may go up or may not.  The recession probability forecast from the Fed is not high at the moment.  So don’t price in a recession.  Inflation concerns are building.  Hourly wages have ticked up to the highest point since 2009.  The Fed may be increasing their tolerance for inflation.  You need increasing yields and price protection.  Horizons have a bunch of ETFs to address this.  Floating rate ETFs hold bonds that give a higher payout as interest rates move up.  They are good to have.  Floating rate notes give you a stable return.  You want to be more conservative on the fixed income side.

Educational Segment.  Economic scenarios most likely in the coming year.  Interest rates will most likely rise.  Earnings may go up or may not.  The recession probability forecast from the Fed is not high at the moment.  So don’t price in a recession.  Inflation concerns are building.  Hourly wages have ticked up to the highest point since 2009.  The Fed may be increasing their tolerance for inflation.  You need increasing yields and price protection.  Horizons have a bunch of ETFs to address this.  Floating rate ETFs hold bonds that give a higher payout as interest rates move up.  They are good to have.  Floating rate notes give you a stable return.  You want to be more conservative on the fixed income side.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

February 12, 2018

Educational Segment.  Last week was quit challenging.  The average correction is 5% or more.  It was 13% last week.  We are seeing an oversold condition on the broad market and a bottom.  We tested the 200 day moving average.  It is typically a good buying opportunity when it happens in a rising market.  If we get above the interim high it will go up but if we don’t take out the highs of last month the bears will win out.  He thinks you can trade the market on a rally.

Educational Segment.  Last week was quit challenging.  The average correction is 5% or more.  It was 13% last week.  We are seeing an oversold condition on the broad market and a bottom.  We tested the 200 day moving average.  It is typically a good buying opportunity when it happens in a rising market.  If we get above the interim high it will go up but if we don’t take out the highs of last month the bears will win out.  He thinks you can trade the market on a rally.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

N/A
General Market Comment 

February 5, 2018

Educational Segment.  What The US 10 Year Bond Market says about the Economy.  When the yield rises it becomes more expensive to borrow and cuts down on growth.  Both the S&P and Bond yields have been going up rapidly recently, which is not normal.  Now investors are concerned the bond yield moved up too far too fast.  We have to be cautious here.

Educational Segment.  What The US 10 Year Bond Market says about the Economy.  When the yield rises it becomes more expensive to borrow and cuts down on growth.  Both the S&P and Bond yields have been going up rapidly recently, which is not normal.  Now investors are concerned the bond yield moved up too far too fast.  We have to be cautious here.

Unknown
Brooke Thackray

President, Jov Investment Manag...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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