HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

EPS of $2.31 missed estimates of $2.60; revenue of $315.9M beat estimates of $311M. Raymond James  lowered its target from $121 to $108. The dividend was raised by 4%. The miss relates to larger provisions for credit losses as the company is taken a conservative approach to the economy. Non-interest revenue was also lower than expected. The outlook for the second half has deteriorated a bit. While disappointing, not overly surprising here. The stock's very low valuation (8X earnings) we think reflects the situation.
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Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

Consistent Compounder & Lessons Learned: Apple Inc.

Market cap: US$3.1 trillion. YTD return: about -17 per cent. One-year: eight per cent. Five-year: 161 per cent. Twenty-year: 15,325 per cent.

In 1986, lots of investors bought Apple shares at less than 10 cents a share (price adjusted for splits). If you bought then and still own shares your return would have been — wait for it — 240,609 per cent. Apple succeeded for many reasons but essentially it revolutionized technology with the iPhone, iPad and services, achieving massive sales and recurring revenue. But it also had huge success simply branding its products. Often its products were not much better than competitors’, such as the iPod versus an MP3 player. But the company’s marketing convinced consumers that its brand has status. With product success the company then shifted to higher-margin services, which investors value more highly.

Lessons learned: Create products that people love and invest in your brand as much as you invest in technology.
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What was President Trump thinking when he raised tariffs on the entire world at once? Did he believe that energy would come to make everything fine and dandy? Or retailers would say their lot in life is to make less money? For certain, he knows inflation will go higher, because prices are rising in every aspect of your life. Why would retailers eat the cost of tariffs when they have such thin margins? Retailers have all said that higher prices are coming. He wants higher tariffs to punish China.

DON'T BUY

It reports Monday. Trades at 11x PE and pays a 4% dividend, but gross margins have been squeezed due to higher costs--from tariffs. Meanwhile, the weight-loss drugs make you feel full, another headwind.

DON'T BUY

It reports Wednesday. How much longer can they put a lid on prices, driven up by tariffs? That said, he expect a good quarter, because they got a lot of merchandise before tariffs. But he's worried about guidance--they may need to raise prices.

DON'T BUY

It reports Wednesday. How much longer can they put a lid on prices, driven up by tariffs? That said, he expect a good quarter, because they got a lot of merchandise before tariffs. But he's worried about guidance--they may need to raise prices.

DON'T BUY

It reports Wednesday. How much longer can they put a lid on prices, driven up by tariffs? That said, he expect a good quarter, because they got a lot of merchandise before tariffs. But he's worried about guidance--they may need to raise prices.

BUY

It reports Tuesday. We just had 3 cybersecurity companies report weak quarters. CRWD shares are above the last quarter when it missed and slumped. But he believes in it--if they survive that massage outage, you should own this. 

DON'T BUY

It reports Thursday. Liquor hasn't bottomed due to the weight-loss drugs and many young people about their health. Also, BF's prices won't come down.

BUY

Many food companies have seen their earnings pop recently. CBRL has value, and the CEO is doing a good job.

BUY

It reports Thursday. He expects it to be great, because software is getting great margins.

BUY

It reports Thursday. Are doing a ton of  business in China. Shares are too cheap now.

COMMENT

The government has been unfair to them.

BUY

Pays a 7% dividend. Something good must be coming out of their Seagen acquisition. The pipeline looks promising.

BUY

Shares popped over 2% after reporting a solid quarter last Wednesday .