Things seem to be going well. The rails are such a bellwether on goods, manufacturing, and broader economy. Volume growth in mid-single digits in Q1, company says those volumes have accelerated in April and May. Noted strength in bulks (such as Canadian grain and fertilizer). Autos were steady, which is comforting. Cost and revenue synergies from the KSU integration.
Company hopes that JV with shipping companies will drive more volume growth. His firm thinks there's more rerating potential in trucking, but this name is an outperformer through the cycles. 10-year total compound shareholder return of 11%, versus 9% for the TSX. High single-digit growth rate. Yield is ~2%.
A rather mysterious and opaque company. Well held, well owned, and people hold onto it for dear life. Massive compounder of 36,000% since the IPO in 2006. Acquires mission-critical, vertical market (narrow of scope -- such as an operating management system for a vet clinic or daycare or golf course) software companies.
Tuck-in acquisitions are usually founder-led, mom & pop software companies. They keep the incumbent management team and equip them with operating efficiencies. Hundreds of acquisitions a year. Compound EPS growth at 24% over the last decade. Stock's richly valued as always at 40x PE. Fair combination of value and growth. Can't quarrel with the track record. Yield is 0.11%.
Secularly advantaged by climate change. Manufacture and distribute HVAC equipment (both heating and cooling). Big player in US, a bit up in Canada. Well-articulated plan to improve operating margins over the coming few years.
In US, new environmental regulation came into effect this year that phases out a particular refrigerant. This is positively impacting the business. He sees a good, visible path to high single-digit or low double-digit compounding of earnings in coming years. Yield is 0.91%, which has grown at 12% over the last decade.
Likes footprint in US since the Bank of the West deal. Third-biggest bank in Canada, one of the top 15 in US. Great Canadian wealth management, and great NA capital markets business. Pretty good, but smaller, insurance business. Management presented a pretty credible plan to drive ROE back to mid-teens.
Trading around 1.3x book value, scope for that to rerate higher as they get the bulk of credit loss provisioning behind them this quarter or next (may even already be behind them). After that, earnings growth can start to reaccelerate. Yield is 4.45%.
CASY is $16B market cap, up 12% this year and up 32% over 52 weeks. P/E is 31X, dividend 0.45%. Debt is about 2.5X cash flow but cash flow is good, and growing. EPS has nearly tripled since 2019. It is a well-run business and the stock is up nearly 400% in the past decade. The last quarter was solid and ahead of estimates. Same store sales rose 3.7%, though gasoline sales declined, largely due to pricing. We would be quite comfortable owning this.
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We would be comfortable buying today; We would look for perhaps $525, but it is not really a stock to try to catch a perfect price on. It is up 10,079% in 20 years. But markets look to decline at the open today.
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Shares are down after an official in the Federal Housing Finance Administration made comments about the agencies push to a two-tier credit score from a three-tier in a bid to lower overall mortgage costs. This would certainly hurt FICO's growth if implemented, but the materiality of it may not be as much as the stock drop indicates. Still, it has changed sentiment and we are generally cautious stepping into these 'falling knife' situations, and here, with valuation at 58X earnings, we would see waiting (not buying) as the best option.
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Investing 101: Think in terms of years, not months or quarters
This one is so important and probably the one that gets ignored most often by investors. No one wants to wait 5 or 10 years to see their portfolio providegainss. We want it all now. Unfortunately, patience is key in a portfolio. Set up a structure that makes sense for the long-term and don't change it unless your situation sees a material change (or if it was inappropriate to begin with).
Markets take time to generate returns and compounding takes decades to have the true power of compounding returns felt. It will be worth it though.
Similarly, companies do not execute a strategy in three month periods. It takes years to change a large company and for its strategy to be fully rolled-out, so an investment in a company should in-turn be viewed in a matter of years and not quarters.
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Probably warrants a fresh look in the wake of its merger with CWB, a fantastic and very synergistic deal. Makes it a scale player nationally with lots of cross-selling opportunities. Capital markets business is excellent. Reports mid-week next week. Small business in Cambodia has been tricky, but not enough to move the needle. Continue to own comfortably.