US valuations are too high. Remove the Magnificent 7 from the S&P 500 and you discover those 493 stocks are trading 3-4 multiple turns lower than the S&P headline number. Financials and select healthcare and energy are good sectors to go. He is slightly underweight the Mag 7; he holds 20 stocks at an average weighting of 5%. 2025 will be a stockpicker's market, not for passive investors.
The US has become the swing producer and less reliant on OPEC. Oil prices are tepid, given China being weak among other factors. Oil companies have reduced operational costs, so they are now more profitable and producing more cash. Yields are higher. He sees the opportunity for higher profits if oil prices rise. He owns no oil stocks now.
He bought this and other homebuilders in 2009 during the crisis and still owns them. They remain great performers. The US remains 5 million housing units short, unable to keep up with immigration. However, labour is about to get very tough, if Trump follows through with expelling undocumented workers, many of who work in this sector.
The entire US health insurance group is embroiled in a controversy that was unfortunately set off by the murder of UNH, specifically talk about how claims are treated at UNH. These stocks are falling, but hang on and let this pass and see how different parties react. There will always be a place for health insurance companies in the US.
See UNH comments. The whole US health insurance industry is in turmoil. The industry itself admits there's a problem with how claims are processed and need to be fixed. These companies are necessary in the US health system, and they are for-profit. ELV hasn't traded at this low a valuation since 2013. Hold on.
The new US administration is talking tough about health cost controls, certainly more extreme than in the past. MRK's Keytruda is a blockbuster drug that has a few years to go before the patent ends. Healthcare has been out of favour the past year, but he recommends holding on.
They were blowing away expectations is recent quarters, but this raised the bar so high that disappointment is inevitable. Shares have returned to levels of last July, but so has the Magnificent 7. The Mag 7 has run up so much, that they need a rest. Also, competition will inevitably limit margins and revenues.