Advertising
COMMENT
Today's 1% BOC rate hike. BOC wants to take an aggressive approach to get ahead of this inflation scourge. Sets the table for the Fed to consider 100 bps, especially given the 9.1% CPI print, though they don't usually pay that much attention to the BOC. 75 bps is cemented for the Fed's next hike.
Unknown
COMMENT
BOC wants to "front-load" rate hikes. The 100 bps move signals that this is what they're doing. How do they, and all central banks, wrestle inflation without driving too much of a stake into the growth story and choking things off for an extended time? His firm expects a shallow, short recession. It's a balancing act.
Unknown
WEAK BUY
Strong management. Aggressive growth. How much excess capital can they return to shareholders as well as deleverage? Focus is on building up the asset base, going from 11K to 22K barrels a day by 2024. Good free cashflow, but much of it's probably earmarked for buying land and M&A.
oil / gas
WAIT
Great asset in Newfoundland & Labrador. Unlikely to be a target of M&A. In "sleepy" mode, so there's elevated execution risk. Costs are higher than he likes, but still profitable at today's gold prices.
Mining
BUY
Good name. Nice dividend, anticipates it will grow. Good job integrating Husky. They can enjoy the fruits of their labour with higher oil prices that give them more free cashflow, higher ROC to shareholders, and faster debt repayment. Adding Asian gas component was timely.
oil / gas
BUY
Will grow aggressively. Shifting from M&A to more organic growth. Targeting 50% of free cashflow of around 20% to go to shareholders, a very healthy buyback. Yield around 3%.
oil / gas
DON'T BUY
Sadly, 5th fatality since 2021. Needs to be a real change in culture to improve safety, which is creating a disconnect from what underlying commodities are doing. Shareholder activism has produced good returns. Near-term challenges.
integrated oils