Latest Expert Opinions

Signal
Opinion
Expert
BUY
BUY
January 9, 2019
One of Canada's largest tech companies. Continues to like it. Valuation has crept up, trades at 18x earnings, but is quite profitable returning high teens ROE. Rose quickly and consistently, with 9% compound growth rate. "Untech" tech stock. Shook off huge rotation from growth to value in the summer. Unloved because organic growth rate is tepid. Tuck-in acquisition strategy working nicely. IP30 strategy is margin accretive. Would be a buyer here. Despite lack of respect from the street, has gone up 10 years in a row.
CGI Group (A) (GIB.A-T)
January 9, 2019
One of Canada's largest tech companies. Continues to like it. Valuation has crept up, trades at 18x earnings, but is quite profitable returning high teens ROE. Rose quickly and consistently, with 9% compound growth rate. "Untech" tech stock. Shook off huge rotation from growth to value in the summer. Unloved because organic growth rate is tepid. Tuck-in acquisition strategy working nicely. IP30 strategy is margin accretive. Would be a buyer here. Despite lack of respect from the street, has gone up 10 years in a row.
Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
Price
$85.240
Owned
Yes
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
January 9, 2019
Core part of his portfolio. Weak housing in Canada is a risk. Though lower house prices affect the mortgage books of banks, and this will be a headwind, TD isn't a one-trick pony. Good commercial loan book, plus significant business in US in commercial and personal banking. Also nice wealth management business, which is going gangbusters. Below 10x earnings. Buy the dips on Canadian banks.
Toronto Dominion (TD-T)
January 9, 2019
Core part of his portfolio. Weak housing in Canada is a risk. Though lower house prices affect the mortgage books of banks, and this will be a headwind, TD isn't a one-trick pony. Good commercial loan book, plus significant business in US in commercial and personal banking. Also nice wealth management business, which is going gangbusters. Below 10x earnings. Buy the dips on Canadian banks.
Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
Price
$68.140
Owned
Yes
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 9, 2019
A good bank, but he questions if it's best in breed. Best in breed involves dominant industry position, sustainable competitive advantage, very strong management, high margins and ROC. There are better examples in the banking industry. Not very diversified geographically. Wealth management, insurance, and capital markets are voids in its portfolio.
A good bank, but he questions if it's best in breed. Best in breed involves dominant industry position, sustainable competitive advantage, very strong management, high margins and ROC. There are better examples in the banking industry. Not very diversified geographically. Wealth management, insurance, and capital markets are voids in its portfolio.
Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
Price
$28.300
Owned
No
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 9, 2019
Because Canada runs a well-regulated banking oligopoly, he has no doubt that in due time, it will be a 150B company. But it's not worth this now. It's grown up, and is now playing in the big boys sandbox. They've accomplished a lot over the last 10 years. Most importantly, they've improved their ROE, the primary driver of valuation for a bank, and the market has recognized and rewarded this already. Prefers larger, more diversified banks.
Because Canada runs a well-regulated banking oligopoly, he has no doubt that in due time, it will be a 150B company. But it's not worth this now. It's grown up, and is now playing in the big boys sandbox. They've accomplished a lot over the last 10 years. Most importantly, they've improved their ROE, the primary driver of valuation for a bank, and the market has recognized and rewarded this already. Prefers larger, more diversified banks.
Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
Price
$58.690
Owned
No
WATCH
WATCH
January 9, 2019
A controversial stock. Has performed badly, after being a market darling. Under secular threat, as people flock to streaming. Is trying to reinvent itself, pivoting to new revenue sources such as liquor and the "Rec Room." Tapping into digitization. Likes the strategy, but it's too early. Look for signs that share price is turning around, such as earnings momentum and beating forecasts. Beware the dead cat bounce.
Cineplex Inc (CGX-T)
January 9, 2019
A controversial stock. Has performed badly, after being a market darling. Under secular threat, as people flock to streaming. Is trying to reinvent itself, pivoting to new revenue sources such as liquor and the "Rec Room." Tapping into digitization. Likes the strategy, but it's too early. Look for signs that share price is turning around, such as earnings momentum and beating forecasts. Beware the dead cat bounce.
Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
Price
$26.330
Owned
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 9, 2019
Rail is not the preferred way to move oil, because it's expensive. One of the best long-term stewards of capital. Reluctant to put money into rail cars, which will be obsolete as soon as pipelines get built. Some upside to this stock from crude by rail, but not overly material.
Rail is not the preferred way to move oil, because it's expensive. One of the best long-term stewards of capital. Reluctant to put money into rail cars, which will be obsolete as soon as pipelines get built. Some upside to this stock from crude by rail, but not overly material.
Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
Price
$104.970
Owned
Unknown
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 9, 2019
(A Top Pick Jan 17/18, Up 38%) Exited this trade in July when it was even higher, as they were de-risking portfolios. The valuation was high, and some concern about churn in the customer base.
Shopify Inc. (SHOP-T)
January 9, 2019
(A Top Pick Jan 17/18, Up 38%) Exited this trade in July when it was even higher, as they were de-risking portfolios. The valuation was high, and some concern about churn in the customer base.
Brian Madden
Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment Council
Price
$196.360
Owned
No