Latest Expert Opinions

Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 18, 2012

A big lumbering company that struggles to replace production every year. However, some of the things they are doing in terms of enhanced oil recovery are going to benefit them down the road but at the same time he thinks the company is struggling with a debt level that is higher than he likes, at about 3.5X cash flow. Also, believes they have an internal mandate to sell assets to the tune of $1.5 billion, which he thinks has a lot to do with fixing up the balance sheet.

Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
September 18, 2012

A big lumbering company that struggles to replace production every year. However, some of the things they are doing in terms of enhanced oil recovery are going to benefit them down the road but at the same time he thinks the company is struggling with a debt level that is higher than he likes, at about 3.5X cash flow. Also, believes they have an internal mandate to sell assets to the tune of $1.5 billion, which he thinks has a lot to do with fixing up the balance sheet.

Mason Granger
Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$15.250
Owned
No
BUY
BUY
September 18, 2012

His opinion on this company has changed to the positive. Will do a good job of working themselves out of the penalty box. Last year, finding costs were terrible. Had trouble meeting production numbers. Debt levels are a little bit high but some of their drilling results are going to impress the market. This is on his short list of stocks that he is looking at.

His opinion on this company has changed to the positive. Will do a good job of working themselves out of the penalty box. Last year, finding costs were terrible. Had trouble meeting production numbers. Debt levels are a little bit high but some of their drilling results are going to impress the market. This is on his short list of stocks that he is looking at.

Mason Granger
Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$7.490
Owned
No
BUY
BUY
September 18, 2012

Holds this management out consistently as excellent capital allocators in Calgary. Have a very lengthy record of creating value for shareholders. They raise capital judiciously. The holy grail of increasing production per share, while at the same time paying a consistent and growing dividend stream.

Bonterra Energy Corp (BNE-T)
September 18, 2012

Holds this management out consistently as excellent capital allocators in Calgary. Have a very lengthy record of creating value for shareholders. They raise capital judiciously. The holy grail of increasing production per share, while at the same time paying a consistent and growing dividend stream.

Mason Granger
Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$45.940
Owned
Yes
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 18, 2012

Has been for sale for quite a while. The strategic alternative process was dragging on. Was announced late in 2011. It became apparent that the list of potential suitors was not lined up to Buy in Spite of it being light oil in SW Saskatchewan. Ultimately they are ending up merging with Guide Exploration (GO-T). Thinks there is still some horse trading of assets to come.

Long Run Exploration (LRE-T)
September 18, 2012

Has been for sale for quite a while. The strategic alternative process was dragging on. Was announced late in 2011. It became apparent that the list of potential suitors was not lined up to Buy in Spite of it being light oil in SW Saskatchewan. Ultimately they are ending up merging with Guide Exploration (GO-T). Thinks there is still some horse trading of assets to come.

Mason Granger
Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$4.070
Owned
No
HOLD
HOLD
September 18, 2012

Would place management team in the absolute top quartile of Calgary companies. About 60% gas and have struggled with the challenging gas environment. Market has traded the stock as though the dividend is at risk but management has indicated they are doing a number of other things before they would consider trimming the dividend. Recently did a strategic acquisition of some assets from Fairborne (FEL-T) and at the same time they raised about $345 million of equity, which should shore up the balance sheet and put the company in a stronger position.

Bonavista Energy Corp (BNP-T)
September 18, 2012

Would place management team in the absolute top quartile of Calgary companies. About 60% gas and have struggled with the challenging gas environment. Market has traded the stock as though the dividend is at risk but management has indicated they are doing a number of other things before they would consider trimming the dividend. Recently did a strategic acquisition of some assets from Fairborne (FEL-T) and at the same time they raised about $345 million of equity, which should shore up the balance sheet and put the company in a stronger position.

Mason Granger
Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$16.520
Owned
Yes
COMMENT
COMMENT
September 18, 2012

(Owns their convertible debentures.) Some pretty good strategic potential as a takeout at some point down the road. Have substantially completed the McKay project and did it on time and pretty close to budget. Well-positioned for growth and cash flow over the next year or two as they wrap up that construction project. There is a little bit of risk if oil pulled back to $70 or so for a company like this.

(Owns their convertible debentures.) Some pretty good strategic potential as a takeout at some point down the road. Have substantially completed the McKay project and did it on time and pretty close to budget. Well-positioned for growth and cash flow over the next year or two as they wrap up that construction project. There is a little bit of risk if oil pulled back to $70 or so for a company like this.

Mason Granger
Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$1.460
Owned
Yes
BUY
BUY
September 18, 2012

Just announced a $25 million financing. Was in a pretty strong financial position before this. Had expected them to exit 2012 with a net debt of about $30 million on a credit facility of about $50 million. Raising equity at this point allows them to accelerate their program. He is particularly excited about their Cardium position at Lockend. They’ve exceeded their type curve wells (?) and there is some additional upside down the road from a new Dunvegan oil play. Good potential from here.

TriOil Resources (TOL-X)
September 18, 2012

Just announced a $25 million financing. Was in a pretty strong financial position before this. Had expected them to exit 2012 with a net debt of about $30 million on a credit facility of about $50 million. Raising equity at this point allows them to accelerate their program. He is particularly excited about their Cardium position at Lockend. They’ve exceeded their type curve wells (?) and there is some additional upside down the road from a new Dunvegan oil play. Good potential from here.

Mason Granger
Portfolio Manager, Sentry Investments
Price
$2.520
Owned
Yes