Opinions by David Burrows | StockChase
4273
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jun 2001

Barometer Capital Management

4273
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jun 2001

Barometer Capital Management


Opinions by David Burrows


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General Market Comment 

December 13, 2017

Market. Believes we began a re-evaluation of the equity asset class in 2013. 2013 was when we took out the highs of the bull market of the 1990s, and it was the first major global developed market to take out all time highs. That was and has been the leader ever since. Bull markets tend to last 15-18 years with interruptions. Since 2013, multiples have steadily been improving since people became more comfortable with the future. We had the first serious correction in 2015 and beginning of 2016, and that was a reset starting a 2nd cyclical rally. We’re about 2 years into that and probably have another year in front of us in the cyclical rally. The secular re-evaluation of the equities goes on for another 10-12 years. Earnings are going up, so we pay for that. The quality of the earnings is getting better. We have revenue growth as opposed to just cost cutting. The average company in the S&P 500 is yielding just over 6% on its capital, so you are getting paid about 3% excess return to buy stocks, compared to bonds. You're getting paid well to take risks. Expects that a year from now we will get a significant correction, but we have another year to get pretty significant returns before it happens. Once you have that correction out of the way, then you have another 3-4 years in front of you.

Market. Believes we began a re-evaluation of the equity asset class in 2013. 2013 was when we took out the highs of the bull market of the 1990s, and it was the first major global developed market to take out all time highs. That was and has been the leader ever since. Bull markets tend to last 15-18 years with interruptions. Since 2013, multiples have steadily been improving since people became more comfortable with the future. We had the first serious correction in 2015 and beginning of 2016, and that was a reset starting a 2nd cyclical rally. We’re about 2 years into that and probably have another year in front of us in the cyclical rally. The secular re-evaluation of the equities goes on for another 10-12 years. Earnings are going up, so we pay for that. The quality of the earnings is getting better. We have revenue growth as opposed to just cost cutting. The average company in the S&P 500 is yielding just over 6% on its capital, so you are getting paid about 3% excess return to buy stocks, compared to bonds. You're getting paid well to take risks. Expects that a year from now we will get a significant correction, but we have another year to get pretty significant returns before it happens. Once you have that correction out of the way, then you have another 3-4 years in front of you.

Unknown
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

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General Market Comment 

December 13, 2017

Bitcoins. He looked at this from an interest standpoint 4 or 5 years ago in the early stages, and has done a fair bit of work on blockchain, but who would've known that there would have been this kind of parabolic move. Anecdotally, some people are saying that when they go to sell their Bitcoins, it can be hard to actually realize the cash. The plumbing is really very early stage, but is slowly being built and he will see what it will build into. Blockchain technology, as it applies to a whole bunch of different industries, might be really, really interesting.

Bitcoins. He looked at this from an interest standpoint 4 or 5 years ago in the early stages, and has done a fair bit of work on blockchain, but who would've known that there would have been this kind of parabolic move. Anecdotally, some people are saying that when they go to sell their Bitcoins, it can be hard to actually realize the cash. The plumbing is really very early stage, but is slowly being built and he will see what it will build into. Blockchain technology, as it applies to a whole bunch of different industries, might be really, really interesting.

Unknown
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

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General Market Comment 

December 13, 2017

Lighten up on ETF fang stocks to put more into US financials? There is a question as to whether we are seeing money rotate from tech into some financials, which are a beneficiary of rising rates. We are in a reflationary cycle that benefits banks and the banks have a long path in front of them for revaluation. You want to own both. It is a great pairing to have the growth attached to the fangs, and at the same time have a significant position in the financials.

Lighten up on ETF fang stocks to put more into US financials? There is a question as to whether we are seeing money rotate from tech into some financials, which are a beneficiary of rising rates. We are in a reflationary cycle that benefits banks and the banks have a long path in front of them for revaluation. You want to own both. It is a great pairing to have the growth attached to the fangs, and at the same time have a significant position in the financials.

Unknown
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

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BUY
Alibaba Group Holding(BABA-N) 

December 13, 2017

This is right in the heart of e-commerce alongside of Amazon (AMZN-Q). It really is a juggernaut, growing at a tremendous rate. The most recent quarter revenues were up 63% and earnings were up 65%. The Internet stocks have had a tremendous year, especially Internet retail as a whole. It’s one you could have a little piece of to participate in the very important structural theme, which is not slowing down at all.

This is right in the heart of e-commerce alongside of Amazon (AMZN-Q). It really is a juggernaut, growing at a tremendous rate. The most recent quarter revenues were up 63% and earnings were up 65%. The Internet stocks have had a tremendous year, especially Internet retail as a whole. It’s one you could have a little piece of to participate in the very important structural theme, which is not slowing down at all.

0
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$176.470
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
BCE Inc.(BCE-T) 

December 13, 2017

There are some structural challenges in wire line telecoms, which historically get tied to interest rates. We have seen the secular long-term low in interest rates in June 2016, and we are unlikely to revisit them. Expect that rates move higher from here. This is not the #1 company he would choose in the group. Prefers Telus (T-T).

telephone utilities

There are some structural challenges in wire line telecoms, which historically get tied to interest rates. We have seen the secular long-term low in interest rates in June 2016, and we are unlikely to revisit them. Expect that rates move higher from here. This is not the #1 company he would choose in the group. Prefers Telus (T-T).

telephone utilities
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$62.800
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Unknown

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COMMENT
Blackstone Group LP(BX-N) 

December 13, 2017

This is really focused in private equity. He prefers to invest in companies that are in public securities. In 2000, when the stock market rolled over, investors slowly stopped investing in public markets and started making private equity investments because they weren't priced every day, and were not subject to the same kind of compliance and regulations that you were in public companies. In 2013, we began a new bull market in public market equities, so he would rather invest in companies that manage public market equities rather than private equities.

investment companies/funds

This is really focused in private equity. He prefers to invest in companies that are in public securities. In 2000, when the stock market rolled over, investors slowly stopped investing in public markets and started making private equity investments because they weren't priced every day, and were not subject to the same kind of compliance and regulations that you were in public companies. In 2013, we began a new bull market in public market equities, so he would rather invest in companies that manage public market equities rather than private equities.

investment companies/funds
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$31.990
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Unknown

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DON'T BUY

(Market Call Minute.) The media group has been very tricky and is one he would avoid right now.

entertainment services

(Market Call Minute.) The media group has been very tricky and is one he would avoid right now.

entertainment services
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$11.630
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Cargojet Inc(CJT-T) 

December 13, 2017

He really likes the transport sector as a whole. This company is a great business moving cargo for Air Canada (AC-T). Technically, the stock just recently broke out after having consolidated back to October 2015.

Transportation & Environmental Services

He really likes the transport sector as a whole. This company is a great business moving cargo for Air Canada (AC-T). Technically, the stock just recently broke out after having consolidated back to October 2015.

Transportation & Environmental Services
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$55.900
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Comerica Inc(CMA-N) 

December 13, 2017

This is a $70 billion regional bank. Next year, the CCAR limit will rise up to $200 billion, so this bank will not have to go through that very expensive process. Compliance costs for them are coming down if deregulation hits. This is a big beneficiary of lower tax rates. There is improved commercial lending going on in the US and they benefit from that. 90% of their loans our floating rate loans. Dividend yield of 1.4%. (Analysts' price target is $83.)

banks

This is a $70 billion regional bank. Next year, the CCAR limit will rise up to $200 billion, so this bank will not have to go through that very expensive process. Compliance costs for them are coming down if deregulation hits. This is a big beneficiary of lower tax rates. There is improved commercial lending going on in the US and they benefit from that. 90% of their loans our floating rate loans. Dividend yield of 1.4%. (Analysts' price target is $83.)

banks
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$84.810
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Canadian Natural Rsrcs(CNQ-T) 

December 13, 2017

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) or Suncor (SU-T) for a longer outlook for gains? They are almost interchangeable. They are the 2 quality companies in the Canadian oil patch, and the 2 that have been able to purchase assets at good prices, while other companies were down. He owns both, and it is a coin toss as to which would do better in the next couple of years. He would be a buyer of both.

oil/gas

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) or Suncor (SU-T) for a longer outlook for gains? They are almost interchangeable. They are the 2 quality companies in the Canadian oil patch, and the 2 that have been able to purchase assets at good prices, while other companies were down. He owns both, and it is a coin toss as to which would do better in the next couple of years. He would be a buyer of both.

oil/gas
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$43.400
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT

Energy has been a sloppy sector this year, and this has not been one of the stronger holdings. He doesn't like this as an investment. However, it is under pressure with tax loss selling. If he were going to do something with it, he would probably get through year end and see how it begins to trade at the beginning of the year. There will be some bottom fishing at the beginning of the year with people looking for things that were under pressure from tax loss selling. The energy sector can improve a little here. Longer-term, he would be a seller of this.

oil/gas

Energy has been a sloppy sector this year, and this has not been one of the stronger holdings. He doesn't like this as an investment. However, it is under pressure with tax loss selling. If he were going to do something with it, he would probably get through year end and see how it begins to trade at the beginning of the year. There will be some bottom fishing at the beginning of the year with people looking for things that were under pressure from tax loss selling. The energy sector can improve a little here. Longer-term, he would be a seller of this.

oil/gas
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$8.700
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Credit Suisse Group(CS-N) 

December 13, 2017

He is very favourable on banks. He has been more focused in the US than in Europe, but money has been moving into the European market all year long. This was with the view that if the global economy is getting better, there is a little more leverage in the European markets. This bank is performing well. It broke out technically at $16. He believes we are in early stages of reflation around the world. This one is a great brand, and will participate.

Financial Services

He is very favourable on banks. He has been more focused in the US than in Europe, but money has been moving into the European market all year long. This was with the view that if the global economy is getting better, there is a little more leverage in the European markets. This bank is performing well. It broke out technically at $16. He believes we are in early stages of reflation around the world. This one is a great brand, and will participate.

Financial Services
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$17.510
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Unknown

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BUY
Cisco(CSCO-Q) 

December 13, 2017

(Market Call Minute.) The chart on this looks great and it is in the right theme. Capital spending will be the name of the game next year. This is one he would buy.

electrical/electronic

(Market Call Minute.) The chart on this looks great and it is in the right theme. Capital spending will be the name of the game next year. This is one he would buy.

electrical/electronic
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$38.150
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Descartes(DSG-T) 

December 13, 2017

This is in the logistics business. It has been a very strong performer over the last few years, but has come under pressure over the last few weeks, but pulled right back into the 150-day moving average. Technically it is still okay. He likes the long-term theme. If it broke the 150-day moving average, he would be gone. In the near term, it provides a pretty good entry point.

computer software/processing

This is in the logistics business. It has been a very strong performer over the last few years, but has come under pressure over the last few weeks, but pulled right back into the 150-day moving average. Technically it is still okay. He likes the long-term theme. If it broke the 150-day moving average, he would be gone. In the near term, it provides a pretty good entry point.

computer software/processing
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$36.270
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
DowDuPont Inc.(DWDP-N) 

December 13, 2017

(A Top Pick Feb 14/17. Up 6%.) He bought this because it was going through this reorganization. They are putting the 2 companies together and then they are going to break them up into 3 pieces. With relatively low feed-cost stocks and an improving economy, the opportunity to grow is there.

chemicals

(A Top Pick Feb 14/17. Up 6%.) He bought this because it was going through this reorganization. They are putting the 2 companies together and then they are going to break them up into 3 pieces. With relatively low feed-cost stocks and an improving economy, the opportunity to grow is there.

chemicals
David Burrows

President & Chief Investment Strategist, Barometer Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$70.560
Owned Owned
Yes

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