Opinions by David Cockfield | StockChase
2921
David Cockfield

Managing Director

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Apr 2001

Northland Wealth Management

2921
David Cockfield

Managing Director

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Apr 2001

Northland Wealth Management


Opinions by David Cockfield


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General Market Comment 

December 14, 2017

Market. The market is sort of trading sideways, but he expects we will still have a US Santa Claus rally. There is nothing wrong with the background, and with the tax bill passing in the US, that will encourage their markets. However, we still have NAFTA hanging over us and low oil prices that are holding our market back. Things are not quite as bad as some equity managers think. There has been a fair migration of funds out of Canada into emerging markets.

Market. The market is sort of trading sideways, but he expects we will still have a US Santa Claus rally. There is nothing wrong with the background, and with the tax bill passing in the US, that will encourage their markets. However, we still have NAFTA hanging over us and low oil prices that are holding our market back. Things are not quite as bad as some equity managers think. There has been a fair migration of funds out of Canada into emerging markets.

Unknown
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

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General Market Comment 

December 14, 2017

REITs? This sector is one you have to be a little careful about these days. Specifically, the kind of investments they are in. The mall sector is one you have to be concerned about. Look for one with a residential aspect or industrial storage.

REITs? This sector is one you have to be a little careful about these days. Specifically, the kind of investments they are in. The mall sector is one you have to be concerned about. Look for one with a residential aspect or industrial storage.

Unknown
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

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General Market Comment 

December 14, 2017

Are Canadian banks safe? He likes TD (TD-T) for its growing US exposure. Thinks they are going to get better results and the dividends are all safe. Bank of Montréal (BMO-T) is the 3rd on his list that he owns, and they are expanding their US exposure as well. Also has the Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) which gives you an entry into central America and Chile, giving you offshore banking. These would give you a diversification that really reduces the risk in the event the Canadian situation turns a bit sour.

Are Canadian banks safe? He likes TD (TD-T) for its growing US exposure. Thinks they are going to get better results and the dividends are all safe. Bank of Montréal (BMO-T) is the 3rd on his list that he owns, and they are expanding their US exposure as well. Also has the Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) which gives you an entry into central America and Chile, giving you offshore banking. These would give you a diversification that really reduces the risk in the event the Canadian situation turns a bit sour.

Unknown
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

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General Market Comment 

December 14, 2017

How do you assess the NAFTA agreement if the US pulls out? This is a very political situation. One of the main themes of Pres. Trump was to tear up NAFTA. So far, he’s followed through on just about anything he said he was going to do. Doesn't feel he can tear up NAFTA, but can set the scene if negotiations fail, which he thinks is going to happen. What happens after that is critical. If we pull back to the old Canadian/US free trade deal, we are almost back to square one, i.e., we don't really get hurt that much. From a market standpoint, if NAFTA gets washed out we could see our markets get hit from a psychological standpoint. That would be a buying opportunity, because when the dust settles, Trump's real target is Mexico, not Canada. He can't believe Trump would blow a hole in the US automotive industry just to satisfy a political promise.

How do you assess the NAFTA agreement if the US pulls out? This is a very political situation. One of the main themes of Pres. Trump was to tear up NAFTA. So far, he’s followed through on just about anything he said he was going to do. Doesn't feel he can tear up NAFTA, but can set the scene if negotiations fail, which he thinks is going to happen. What happens after that is critical. If we pull back to the old Canadian/US free trade deal, we are almost back to square one, i.e., we don't really get hurt that much. From a market standpoint, if NAFTA gets washed out we could see our markets get hit from a psychological standpoint. That would be a buying opportunity, because when the dust settles, Trump's real target is Mexico, not Canada. He can't believe Trump would blow a hole in the US automotive industry just to satisfy a political promise.

Unknown
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

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BUY
BCE Inc.(BCE-T) 

December 14, 2017

Doesn't tend to be a super exciting stock, but the yield is fantastic. Has it in his portfolios to generate a steady cash flow and increases in the dividend over time. The dominant telco in Canada. They continue to show imagination in the things they do. This is a "buy and hold" situation.

telephone utilities

Doesn't tend to be a super exciting stock, but the yield is fantastic. Has it in his portfolios to generate a steady cash flow and increases in the dividend over time. The dominant telco in Canada. They continue to show imagination in the things they do. This is a "buy and hold" situation.

telephone utilities
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$61.690
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Yes

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WAIT
Walt Disney(DIS-N) 

December 14, 2017

Watching this with interest. Sold his holdings not too long ago, as it seemed to be drifting down. The Fox acquisition may change the equation. It did very well for him until it started going sideways in the last year or so. The jury is out and we are going to have to wait and see. Thinks they are going to be head to head with Netflix as soon as the dust settles.

entertainment services

Watching this with interest. Sold his holdings not too long ago, as it seemed to be drifting down. The Fox acquisition may change the equation. It did very well for him until it started going sideways in the last year or so. The jury is out and we are going to have to wait and see. Thinks they are going to be head to head with Netflix as soon as the dust settles.

entertainment services
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$110.570
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No

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WAIT
Empire Company (A)(EMP.A-T) 

December 14, 2017

This has been acting quite well recently, and doesn't know if this is a bottom or a top. It’s a good company. They made a mess of their acquisition in Alberta and have a plan to fix things. The multiple is extremely high. There’s been a lot of anticipation that this turnaround is going to happen more quickly than he thinks is possible. Looking into 2018 the stock looks fully priced. He isn’t a fan of the grocery business. Wait to see how well they do in turning things around in Alberta.

food stores

This has been acting quite well recently, and doesn't know if this is a bottom or a top. It’s a good company. They made a mess of their acquisition in Alberta and have a plan to fix things. The multiple is extremely high. There’s been a lot of anticipation that this turnaround is going to happen more quickly than he thinks is possible. Looking into 2018 the stock looks fully priced. He isn’t a fan of the grocery business. Wait to see how well they do in turning things around in Alberta.

food stores
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$23.830
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Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Enbridge(ENB-T) 

December 14, 2017

Why is there such a disconnect between the flat earnings trend in the last 4 years, the high rising debt levels, and that they have an extremely generous dividend policy? A lot of people are asking the same question. This one is not on his "favourites" list at all. The political situation for this company and TransCanada (TRP-T) is that the politics of the world have become very negative for large pipelines. He thought this company's Northern Gateway was doomed from the start. They are not paying enough attention to the political aspects and the political environment. He would not recommend this.

oil/gas pipelines

Why is there such a disconnect between the flat earnings trend in the last 4 years, the high rising debt levels, and that they have an extremely generous dividend policy? A lot of people are asking the same question. This one is not on his "favourites" list at all. The political situation for this company and TransCanada (TRP-T) is that the politics of the world have become very negative for large pipelines. He thought this company's Northern Gateway was doomed from the start. They are not paying enough attention to the political aspects and the political environment. He would not recommend this.

oil/gas pipelines
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

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$49.320
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Unknown

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COMMENT

Very dubious about the whole marijuana sector. It's an area where you can sort of put your sign up saying we are now in the marijuana business, and away you go. There are some big legitimate companies that are going to do well, but we really don't know exactly how well they are going to do. He is not sure they will be very profitable.

E.T.F.'s

Very dubious about the whole marijuana sector. It's an area where you can sort of put your sign up saying we are now in the marijuana business, and away you go. There are some big legitimate companies that are going to do well, but we really don't know exactly how well they are going to do. He is not sure they will be very profitable.

E.T.F.'s
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

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$15.210
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No

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BUY

This has been a great performer. He's gotten a little worried about it because it has done so well, and has taken some profits here and there. If you want to get into that area in a diversified way, this has all the Fang stocks and has done exceptionally well. The US economy looks in pretty good shape. The industry, as a whole, will continue to do well as long as the US economy is perking along, and will tend to do better than other segments. Not a bad place to put your money, but he wouldn't overweight it at the present. There might be a further correction sometime in January that will offer a better opportunity.

E.T.F.'s

This has been a great performer. He's gotten a little worried about it because it has done so well, and has taken some profits here and there. If you want to get into that area in a diversified way, this has all the Fang stocks and has done exceptionally well. The US economy looks in pretty good shape. The industry, as a whole, will continue to do well as long as the US economy is perking along, and will tend to do better than other segments. Not a bad place to put your money, but he wouldn't overweight it at the present. There might be a further correction sometime in January that will offer a better opportunity.

E.T.F.'s
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$168.800
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Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Inter Pipeline(IPL-T) 

December 14, 2017

(A Top Pick Feb 3/17. Down 1%.) The whole sector is suffering from the view that somehow energy is going to disappear in the next couple of years, which he doesn't believe at all. The dividend seems to be relatively safe. Has added to his positions.

oil pipelines

(A Top Pick Feb 3/17. Down 1%.) The whole sector is suffering from the view that somehow energy is going to disappear in the next couple of years, which he doesn't believe at all. The dividend seems to be relatively safe. Has added to his positions.

oil pipelines
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$27.270
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Yes

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TOP PICK
Norbord Inc(OSB-T) 

December 14, 2017

Oriented strand board. He’s looking for ways to get a piece of the action in US housing, which still has a decade of catching up to do. Their big problem is getting people who know how to nail a board together. The industry is really short of skilled labour, and there is a shortage of new houses and new construction. A company like this, which produces a product very similar to plywood, is very good. Sees a rising dividend in this. Dividend yield of 5.7%. (Analysts' price target is $50.50.)

household goods

Oriented strand board. He’s looking for ways to get a piece of the action in US housing, which still has a decade of catching up to do. Their big problem is getting people who know how to nail a board together. The industry is really short of skilled labour, and there is a shortage of new houses and new construction. A company like this, which produces a product very similar to plywood, is very good. Sees a rising dividend in this. Dividend yield of 5.7%. (Analysts' price target is $50.50.)

household goods
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$42.380
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Yes

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BUY
Pembina Pipeline Corp(PPL-T) 

December 14, 2017

These are local Alberta pipelines, and not facing the same kind of political headwinds the big pipeline companies seem to be experiencing. Feels the dividend is relatively safe and management is good. Despite problematic oil prices, new capacity continues to come on from the oil sands. If you want to buy for the dividend, it is a good, safe investment. He is not as negative on the oil/gas sector as some people are.

pipelines

These are local Alberta pipelines, and not facing the same kind of political headwinds the big pipeline companies seem to be experiencing. Feels the dividend is relatively safe and management is good. Despite problematic oil prices, new capacity continues to come on from the oil sands. If you want to buy for the dividend, it is a good, safe investment. He is not as negative on the oil/gas sector as some people are.

pipelines
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$44.770
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Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Shopify Inc.(SHOP-T) 

December 14, 2017

(A Top Pick Feb 3/17. Up 94%.) Took his positions out at around $122 when he felt it was becoming a target by activists. It has yet to make any earnings. If it sold back under $100, he would have another hard look at it.

(A Top Pick Feb 3/17. Up 94%.) Took his positions out at around $122 when he felt it was becoming a target by activists. It has yet to make any earnings. If it sold back under $100, he would have another hard look at it.

0
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$131.590
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Sun Life Financial Inc(SLF-T) 

December 14, 2017

(A Top Pick Feb 3/17. Up 6%.) A good safe dividend payer. Has added to some positions. A well-run company. It will do well in a good economic environment.

insurance

(A Top Pick Feb 3/17. Up 6%.) A good safe dividend payer. Has added to some positions. A well-run company. It will do well in a good economic environment.

insurance
David Cockfield

Managing Director, Northland Wealth Man...

PricePrice
$51.750
Owned Owned
Yes

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