Opinions by Sandy McIntyre | StockChase
933
Sandy McIntyre

Vice-Chairman and CIO

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Nov 2000

Sentry Select Capital Corp
The Exchange Tower130 King Street West, Suite 2850Toronto, ONM5X 1A4
T: 416-861-8729 F: 416-364-1197 info@sentryselect.com
http://www.sentryselect.com/

933
Sandy McIntyre

Vice-Chairman and CIO

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Nov 2000

Sentry Select Capital Corp
The Exchange Tower130 King Street West, Suite 2850Toronto, ONM5X 1A4
T: 416-861-8729 F: 416-364-1197 info@sentryselect.com
http://www.sentryselect.com/


Opinions by Sandy McIntyre


Signal Opinion Expert Chart
N/A
General Market Comment 

December 10, 2012

Inflation. Bank of Canada has told us it has an explicit target of 2% inflation. That 2% inflation, using the old rule of 72, in 36 years your purchasing power is cut in half. Since the Federal Reserve has formed in 1913, inflation has averaged 3.2%. You cut the life of your capital down to 20 years at that rate. A typical individual who retires at 65 today is going to have between 18 and 20 years in retirement. With just that simple 2% number, you need your income to increase by roughly 40% over your retirement in order to maintain your standard of living. To offset this inflation, is to hold dividend paying stocks with reasonable coverage ratios with businesses that have the ability to pass on input cost pressures. He typically looks for businesses that are in rather controlled supply situations, producing goods and services that the broad population typically uses on a day to day basis.

Inflation. Bank of Canada has told us it has an explicit target of 2% inflation. That 2% inflation, using the old rule of 72, in 36 years your purchasing power is cut in half. Since the Federal Reserve has formed in 1913, inflation has averaged 3.2%. You cut the life of your capital down to 20 years at that rate. A typical individual who retires at 65 today is going to have between 18 and 20 years in retirement. With just that simple 2% number, you need your income to increase by roughly 40% over your retirement in order to maintain your standard of living. To offset this inflation, is to hold dividend paying stocks with reasonable coverage ratios with businesses that have the ability to pass on input cost pressures. He typically looks for businesses that are in rather controlled supply situations, producing goods and services that the broad population typically uses on a day to day basis.

Unknown
Sandy McIntyre

Vice-Chairman and CIO, Sentry Select Capita...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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N/A
General Market Comment 

December 10, 2012

ETF’s? If it’s an ETF on the broad Canadian market, he wouldn’t own it. The market is roughly 50% in materials and energy, which are highly volatile businesses of good, bad and indifferent companies. If it’s an ETF on US dividend aristocrats, he would be quite interested in it.

ETF’s? If it’s an ETF on the broad Canadian market, he wouldn’t own it. The market is roughly 50% in materials and energy, which are highly volatile businesses of good, bad and indifferent companies. If it’s an ETF on US dividend aristocrats, he would be quite interested in it.

Unknown
Sandy McIntyre

Vice-Chairman and CIO, Sentry Select Capita...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

December 10, 2012

US REITs? He has been increasing his exposure to US REITs consistently, over the past 3 years. Good cases are high quality assets, well tenanted, good locations, good balance sheets, low payout ratios and a very low cost of capital.

US REITs? He has been increasing his exposure to US REITs consistently, over the past 3 years. Good cases are high quality assets, well tenanted, good locations, good balance sheets, low payout ratios and a very low cost of capital.

Unknown
Sandy McIntyre

Vice-Chairman and CIO, Sentry Select Capita...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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N/A
General Market Comment 

December 10, 2012

Royalties. With fund managers increasingly seeking dividends and income, viewer feels royalties are being ignored. Restaurant royalty companies are too small to attract funds. US energy royalty names have had a checkered history and pricing pretty close to perfection on the IPOs, so any hiccup creates problems.

Royalties. With fund managers increasingly seeking dividends and income, viewer feels royalties are being ignored. Restaurant royalty companies are too small to attract funds. US energy royalty names have had a checkered history and pricing pretty close to perfection on the IPOs, so any hiccup creates problems.

Unknown
Sandy McIntyre

Vice-Chairman and CIO, Sentry Select Capita...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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DON'T BUY

Producer of legumes and lentils. Quite active in export markets. Stock had a nasty turn down in November, tried to recover, but is weakening again. There is somebody selling. When you see a chart like this one has, every time the stock lifts, someone is feeding the market. Until that rectifies itself, he would not be buying.

machinery

Producer of legumes and lentils. Quite active in export markets. Stock had a nasty turn down in November, tried to recover, but is weakening again. There is somebody selling. When you see a chart like this one has, every time the stock lifts, someone is feeding the market. Until that rectifies itself, he would not be buying.

machinery
Sandy McIntyre

Vice-Chairman and CIO, Sentry Select Capita...

PricePrice
$29.900
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Celestica Inc(CLS-T) 

December 10, 2012

A custom manufacturer of electronics. Their manufacturing of RIM products is coming off contract so it has risks to it but it is also extremely cheap. Recently announced a share buyback. Feels that management realizes that if they can shrink capitalization, returns will improve.

electrical/electronic

A custom manufacturer of electronics. Their manufacturing of RIM products is coming off contract so it has risks to it but it is also extremely cheap. Recently announced a share buyback. Feels that management realizes that if they can shrink capitalization, returns will improve.

electrical/electronic
Sandy McIntyre

Vice-Chairman and CIO, Sentry Select Capita...

PricePrice
$7.490
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Dream Office REIT(D.UN-T) 

December 10, 2012

With this and most of the REITs, there has been a slide over the last month or so. There is no specific news around this company that would suggest a material reason for the slide. It could be that REITs have been in a 3.5 year bull market and people were taking profits.

property mngmnt/investment

With this and most of the REITs, there has been a slide over the last month or so. There is no specific news around this company that would suggest a material reason for the slide. It could be that REITs have been in a 3.5 year bull market and people were taking profits.

property mngmnt/investment
Sandy McIntyre

Vice-Chairman and CIO, Sentry Select Capita...

PricePrice
$36.330
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY

High-yield is always dangerous. It is indicative of a structural problem. This is not a growth industry. 29% yield and the market is telling you not to believe it.

paper products/business forms

High-yield is always dangerous. It is indicative of a structural problem. This is not a growth industry. 29% yield and the market is telling you not to believe it.

paper products/business forms
Sandy McIntyre

Vice-Chairman and CIO, Sentry Select Capita...

PricePrice
$2.200
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Freehold Royalties(FRU-T) 

December 10, 2012

Most of these types of stocks in the context of today’s natural gas prices and western Canadian oil prices, are distributing more than they should. In his view, the dividend is too high and will likely be right sized to reflect the current reality of a $20 spread under WTI and a discounted AACO (?) relative to NYMX on natural gas.

oil/gas

Most of these types of stocks in the context of today’s natural gas prices and western Canadian oil prices, are distributing more than they should. In his view, the dividend is too high and will likely be right sized to reflect the current reality of a $20 spread under WTI and a discounted AACO (?) relative to NYMX on natural gas.

oil/gas
Sandy McIntyre

Vice-Chairman and CIO, Sentry Select Capita...

PricePrice
$21.720
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Fortis Inc.(FTS-T) 

December 10, 2012

This is sort of a 2 piece business. Real estate business on top of utility business. He prefers businesses that are in one business. It doesn’t meet his hurdle rates for his mutual fund portfolios.

electrical utilities

This is sort of a 2 piece business. Real estate business on top of utility business. He prefers businesses that are in one business. It doesn’t meet his hurdle rates for his mutual fund portfolios.

electrical utilities
Sandy McIntyre

Vice-Chairman and CIO, Sentry Select Capita...

PricePrice
$33.280
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Keyera Corp(KEY-T) 

December 10, 2012

Extremely well run. With US gas production, pretty well hitting record levels, we are seeing western gas backed out. Focus on liquids production is now playing into this company’s hands in that they are a processor of liquids associated with gas production. Longer-term, this company will benefit from capacity in the liquids rich shale plays that are targeted to possibly go to export markets, other than the US.

oil/gas

Extremely well run. With US gas production, pretty well hitting record levels, we are seeing western gas backed out. Focus on liquids production is now playing into this company’s hands in that they are a processor of liquids associated with gas production. Longer-term, this company will benefit from capacity in the liquids rich shale plays that are targeted to possibly go to export markets, other than the US.

oil/gas
Sandy McIntyre

Vice-Chairman and CIO, Sentry Select Capita...

PricePrice
$46.750
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Magna Int'l. (A)(MG-T) 

December 10, 2012

Has seen a change in capital structure and in management. Trading at 9X earnings with no debt. Has a global footprint. Capability of high-quality manufacturing/assembly vehicles as well as providing the parts. This is in an industry that is experiencing growth.

Automotive

Has seen a change in capital structure and in management. Trading at 9X earnings with no debt. Has a global footprint. Capability of high-quality manufacturing/assembly vehicles as well as providing the parts. This is in an industry that is experiencing growth.

Automotive
Sandy McIntyre

Vice-Chairman and CIO, Sentry Select Capita...

PricePrice
$47.190
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Microsoft(MSFT-Q) 

December 10, 2012

(A Top Pick Sept 7/11. Up 7.02%.) Feels it is being overlooked because it was so well owned 12 years ago that there is still residual distribution pressure on it as fund managers get redemptions. 11% earnings yield and 3.5% dividend yield and no net debt.

computer software/processing

(A Top Pick Sept 7/11. Up 7.02%.) Feels it is being overlooked because it was so well owned 12 years ago that there is still residual distribution pressure on it as fund managers get redemptions. 11% earnings yield and 3.5% dividend yield and no net debt.

computer software/processing
Sandy McIntyre

Vice-Chairman and CIO, Sentry Select Capita...

PricePrice
$26.940
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
COMMENT

Like other major mortgage REITs, this is a structure where you lever up mortgage paper using short-term debt which can run to 6-7 times leverage. In periods where short-term rates are rising relative to long-term rates, there is a lot of pressure on this type of a structure. Recently been weak because of refinancing going on in mortgages. Available spread post QE3, has been reduced due to the Federal Reserve getting in to the mortgage market and buying back mortgage bonds, forcing down yields and enabling people to roll over mortgages at cheaper rates.

investment companies/funds

Like other major mortgage REITs, this is a structure where you lever up mortgage paper using short-term debt which can run to 6-7 times leverage. In periods where short-term rates are rising relative to long-term rates, there is a lot of pressure on this type of a structure. Recently been weak because of refinancing going on in mortgages. Available spread post QE3, has been reduced due to the Federal Reserve getting in to the mortgage market and buying back mortgage bonds, forcing down yields and enabling people to roll over mortgages at cheaper rates.

investment companies/funds
Sandy McIntyre

Vice-Chairman and CIO, Sentry Select Capita...

PricePrice
$14.680
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
PAST TOP PICK
Norfolk Southern(NSC-N) 

December 10, 2012

(A Top Pick Sept 7/11. Down 4.24%.) Do a lot of metallurgical and thermal coal shipping. 3rd quarter numbers, thermal volumes were down sharply as natural gas is displacing thermal coal in electrical generation. The rest of the business is doing fine. He is still picking it up on weak prices.

Transportation & Environmental Services

(A Top Pick Sept 7/11. Down 4.24%.) Do a lot of metallurgical and thermal coal shipping. 3rd quarter numbers, thermal volumes were down sharply as natural gas is displacing thermal coal in electrical generation. The rest of the business is doing fine. He is still picking it up on weak prices.

Transportation & Environmental Services
Sandy McIntyre

Vice-Chairman and CIO, Sentry Select Capita...

PricePrice
$62.080
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
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