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Stock Opinions by Ross Healy

STRONG BUY
He really has to like it. It got pummelled in the COVID melt-down and since then it has been working in a rough sideways direction, but it is way below its normal valuations standards while the earnings forecasts have bounced back powerfully. It will also help if interest rates go up. He thinks this stock is cheap.
insurance
DON'T BUY
Tech Stocks. When he calculates their fair market value, they are roughly fifty percent over valued. He does not recommend moving into them. Meanwhile with the value stocks and the market coming on, you have plenty of place to go. When these stocks lose altitude, it takes years, if ever for them to come back to their highs.
Unknown
SELL
Every time in the past 35 years that the stock has reached 3.5 times book level, it has been the peak. It did that recently. Insiders have been selling like crazy. This stock is very, very expensive. There should be a much larger correction in the stock before getting into it.
Transportation
TOP PICK
See his Past Top Picks. The stock is cheap and is close to breaking out technically. (Analysts’ price target is $24.37)
insurance
TOP PICK
He likes the silver stocks. This stock has recently made a nice little technical break-out. If you look at the two spikes in the past decade in silver, it would suggest that this one probably has 35-45% just to get back to its highs. He suspects silver will break out to new highs and this would take it even higher. (Analysts’ price target is $11.32)
precious metals
TOP PICK
It has good strong upside potential and from a technical point of view it looks like it is just about to break out above one times book value. It has a nice balance sheet. It is a nice value stock. Infrastructure spending in the US would also move this stock up higher. (Analysts’ price target is $19.86)
contractors
COMMENT
Is there too much euphoria over the potential vaccines? Market was already in a transition away from momentum stocks. Starting to move into value. The Pfizer announcement created a big jump in stocks that were already starting to move. Stocks aren't necessarily too much ahead of themselves, but we're going to have a rough patch or two before it's all done.
Unknown
COMMENT
Longer term, sobering thoughts on US debt to GDP? The long downtrend of US GDP dropped in 2008 to less than $3 of debt to $1 of GDP for the first time, and we had the worst recession since the Great Depression. It held tight at the 3.5:1 ratio until we got to 2020. Now we're back in the same condition as 2008, and along came Covid. GDP plunged as indebtedness went up. Can't tell if it's a Covid effect or something else. The economy won't bounce back in 2021 the way people are expecting. Covid isn't over yet, despite the vaccines.
Unknown
HOLD

Fell to book value, but jumped on Pfizer announcement. Intrinsic value is 60% higher than current value. Fairly indifferent balance sheet. If it can break above $31, could easily go as high as $42. No yield.

Energy
COMMENT
Time to take profits from gold and silver? No. Outlook for inflation is perking up. Historically, upwards pressure on interest rates plus upwards pressure on commodity prices. Stay the course in the golds, and add some of the other commodities including copper. Not the time to bail, just because they're in a temporary hiatus.
Unknown
SELL
It's been buying back stock, so they don't have any book value. This is not a solid mattress to lie on. Fair market value is about 53% lower than the current price. If we're shifting away from growth to value, this isn't the one to buy.
specialty stores
SELL
It's hanging in, but it's been buying back stock and keeping upwards pressure on the price. Not cheap. FANGs in general are rolling over. Same as rollovers of the Nifty Fifty in 1972 and the dot.coms of 2000. Be cautious of this group in general.
electrical / electronic
HOLD

Trades at 2.5x book, versus Netflix at 20x book. DIS has moved ahead slowly like a value stock, whereas Netflix is having trouble and rolling over. We still haven't seen DIS earnings from streaming. Stock is 57% overvalued. Stock technically broke out. Hang in there, albeit nervously.

entertainment services
RISKY BUY
Can't find all that much wrong, or right, with the stock. Price to book is 8x, so not cheap. Reasonable value for a hypergrowth stock, as it's only 18% overvalued. Technically, $17-17.50 should hold. At that level, could be looking at a nice trade.
Technology
HOLD
Concerned about the dividend. In the midst of expansion. Need all the market goodwill they can get, so probably won't cut the dividend. Technically, back to good support. Nervously hang in there.
oil / gas pipelines
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