Opinions by Gavin Graham | StockChase
3137
Gavin Graham

Trustee

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Oct 2000

Pointbreak ETFs


Opinions by Gavin Graham


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2017-09-29

PARTIAL SELL
Air Canada (AC-T)

Sell? If you’ve got a profit from an airline, it is never wrong to lock some of it in. There are so many things that an airline can’t control, such as the number of people flying, the price they pay, jet fuel prices, etc. At least, take your original cost out.

Transportation
Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs

Price: $26.240
Owned: Unknown

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2017-09-29

COMMENT
Aegon N.V. (AEG-N)

A survivor from the financial meltdown. European financials have done pretty well over the last year. They cut the dividend, so that should be fairly safe. It is really a question of, what do you think the outlook is for European economies. While the ECB has been very kind in helping European banks, you have to worry longer-term. If you made a gain on this, it might not be a bad idea to at least take some profits.

Financial Services
Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs

Price: $5.790
Owned: Unknown

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2017-09-29

COMMENT
Alimentation Couche-Tard (B) (ATD.B-T)

Metro (MRU-T) is in talks with Jean Coutu (PJC.A-T) deal? They will have to sell their holdings in this company to finance the deal. Should I sell? This is correct. You have probably done very well in Couche-Tard, and it is never wrong to take a profit.

food stores
Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs

Price: $56.900
Owned: Unknown

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2017-09-29

COMMENT
CCL Industries (B) (CCL.B-T)

Packaging and labels. This has done well over the past year. One of the issues with industrials, especially manufacturing stocks, is what stage are we at in the cycle and what price are you paying. He would treat this was a little caution until you see what happens with growth in the US and Canada over the next few months.

packaging/containers
Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs

Price: $60.380
Owned: Unknown

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2017-09-29

COMMENT
Cameco Corporation (CCO-T)

An enormously disappointing longer-term investment. If the tax case goes in their favour, that will be nice, but the stock really hasn’t done a great deal. There has been a downturn in the demand for uranium. They are building a lot of reactors in China, and are looking to build a lot more in Asia. The only thing that doesn’t emit CO2 for continuous baseload power is nuclear. This is dead money at the moment.

integrated mines
Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs

Price: $12.050
Owned: Unknown

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2017-09-29

TOP PICK
Calian Group Ltd (CGY-T)

It does 145 pharmacies by Loblaw’s (L-T) and medical services for the Canadian Defence Department, as well as a satellite business out of Saskatoon. One of the most consistently profitable small-cap companies for the last 5 years. 4% dividend yield. (Analysts’ price target is $31.00.)

consulting
Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs

Price: $28.600
Owned: Yes

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2017-09-29

COMMENT
Canadian Pacific Rail (CP-T)

Has been the most successful rail stock in the last 5 years. His pick has been Canadian National (CNR-T), but rail stocks are GDP growth plus 2%-3%. They have their cost ratio way down. You will do very well on a longer-term view, but if we do have a slowdown in North America, rail stocks are not going to be immune.

Transportation
Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs

Price: $209.580
Owned: Unknown

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2017-09-29

TOP PICK
Fairfax Financial (FFH-T)

This is essentially a bet on the acumen of Prem Watsa. Fairfax just bought Allied World for $4.9 billion, which gives them the brokerage market and the Fortune 1000 companies. The stock is off 15% because of his bet on it being deflationary where he lost $5 billion, but he made 5 billion on the other side in terms of his investments. Dividend yield of 2%. (Analysts’ price target is $553.13.)

insurance
Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs

Price: $649.330
Owned: Yes

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2017-09-29

PAST TOP PICK
Goldcorp Inc (G-T)

(A Top Pick Oct 19/16. Down 19%.) This was a call on the gold sector generally. The new CEO has a 20/20/20 plan of increasing reserves by 20%, increasing production by 20% and cutting costs by 20%. He is getting there. He still likes this.

precious metals
Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs

Price: $16.200
Owned: Yes

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2017-09-29

COMMENT
Linamar Corp (LNR-T)

Had recommended selling this about 18 months ago, because it looked like the auto cycle was peaking out. A wonderful company, but the major problem is that North American car sales have rolled over. You don’t want to be in this at the wrong cycle, which is where we now are.

transportation equip & components
Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs

Price: $76.140
Owned: Unknown

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2017-09-29

COMMENT
Lloyds TSB Group PLC (LYG-N)

Over the past year, this has done quite well. They brought the dividend back and increased it. As a domestic UK bank, they are sticking to their knitting.

banks
Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs

Price: $3.660
Owned: Unknown

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2017-09-29

BUY
Maxar Technologies (MAXR-T)

Being listed on the NYSE next week, which should help the stock. This company has “value added” technology. Probably not a bad buying opportunity now, with it having come off 15%-20%.

computer software/processing
Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs

Price: $70.980
Owned: Unknown

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2017-09-29

COMMENT
National Grid PLC (NGG-N)

This has been a problem for all UK utilities. The regulatory regime, whether for generators, distributors, etc., has been getting tougher and tougher. With the present uncertain state of UK politics, there is a possibility that Labour might be the next government, and this could get nationalized at a price well below what it is trading at now. You have to make up your mind whether BREXIT is going to be disastrous for the Conservative party or not. If you are uncertain, you might want to get out of this and come back when things are clearer.

electrical utilities
Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs

Price: $62.710
Owned: Unknown

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2017-09-29

COMMENT
SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. (SNC-T)

Sell SNC Lavalin (SNC-T) or WSP Global (WSP-T)? He would keep this one, simply because the value of the calculation of its 16% stake in the #407. The owners can raise the fees and there is still a 20% capacity. Plus, the government is building the eastern extension, which will be more traffic into the privatized bit.

contractors
Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs

Price: $56.390
Owned: Unknown

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2017-09-29

TOP PICK
Slate Retail REIT (SRT.UN-T)

This is food centred US retail malls. They own $1 billion worth in 23 states. Has a pretty good track record. Dividend yield of 7.6%. (Analysts’ price target is $11.75.)

REAL ESTATE
Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs

Price: $13.410
Owned: Yes

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