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Stock Opinions by Steve Grasso

COMMENT
It's breathtaking how yields slid this week. (The U.S. 10-year fell below 3% today.) If you go back to November 2018 to the highs of June 2022, the 50% retracement for yields is 2%. Those two dates were a double top for yields. He expects a respite for yields as commodity prices (gas and wheat) come in. This may convince Jay Powell to take his foot off the gas and result in yields come in from here.
Unknown
DON'T BUY
He's been negative on all semis lately, but only Micron is below the February 2020 level. For Nvidia to return below Feb. 2020, shares would have to be cut in half--a pretty big move. TSM and Nvidia make up 20% of SMH. The former would need to plunge 30% to fall below Feb. 2020. So, there's a lot of room to the downside. We'll have to dip down a lot to call a bottom in semis.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
Ross and TJX benefit from oversupply in retail, and we've seen oversupply in many retail names.
clothing stores
BUY
Ross and TJX benefit from oversupply in retail, and we've seen oversupply in many retail names.
clothing stores
DON'T BUY
It's not about market conditions hurting cannabis stocks Like Uber and Lyft, cannabis stocks have to make money and profits at some point.
E.T.F.'s
SELL
This solar ETF looks terrible on a technical level. Take profits.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
Amazon announced a 20-1 stock split He's shocked that they're doing it now. This was a pandemic stock. We're coming out of Covid, so the stock split is another lever to pull. It feels like Amazon is doing this out of weakness, not strength.
specialty stores
BUY
Down 14% this year and shareholders are unhappy that the CEO isn't taking a public stance against Florida's anti-gay legislation Prefers Disney over Netflix, because people want to get out and experience things. The theme parks generate $16 billion revenues in a normal time. He's back long Disney. It will go much higher. Technically, this is where it bounced in July.
entertainment services
BUY
He's still long on this. Management screwed up on pricing. He's nervous because this company has no earnings, but the upside is more likely.
Automotive
BUY
Some stocks have oversold and are now a bargain. This fell from the $70s into the $40s. A no-brainer.
clothing
HOLD
Shares soared after earnings He bought this when it went public as a SPAC, and it's down nearly 80% since then. The fundamentals such as net income--$90 million against a loss of $3 million--their iGaming up 50% YTD and adjusted EBITDA is up 11%. Their last earnings cycle was horrendous, but this one is a bounce. He's holding it because there's a disconnect between the fundamentals and the share price. What ruined PSFE was the SPAC attack (which ruined all SPACs). PSFE should be trading back at $18. Their digital wallet and acquisitions make this investible.
Technology
BUY
Their theme parks will revive shares and Disney+ will help. This stock popped on earnings, fell on the Russian invasion and now it will rise to complete a round trip.
entertainment services
COMMENT
Reduce the balance sheet or raise rates? And which is worse? The market is digesting this choice. Value should outperform this year. The whole market--value and growth--will move lower. We saw that today. Value isn't big enough of the index to lift the market. Who knows what will happen with Covid and the markets in the next six months. He thinks we'll be talking about something completely different in a week after the markets digesting today's Fed news very quickly.
Unknown
COMMENT
Do tech stocks end the year higher, meaning the Nasdaq 100? No. What kind of tech? The top names can be higher, and the bottom lower. He owns value stocks, so he wants to the 10-year above 2%, though he predicts it'll end 2022 at 1.5-1.6%. Inflation is still transitory.
Unknown
DON'T BUY
Inflation will be transitory. Alcoa is hitting 2018 resistance, and won't move much past $62.
non-base metal mining
DON'T BUY
$53 is your lid. You face long-term resistance here.
department stores
DON'T BUY
The retail investor decides when the market goes up or down, but they haven't been as empowered as now, to sell and buy so quickly. AMC remains highly volatile. His takeaway: shorters have always been a risk to the market. The real change made by retail investors is to tell shorters, You cannot short like you used to (or you'll get squashed when a stock rips up).
entertainment services
BUY
Year-end seasonal trades Sonos. headwinds were supply shortages, but are now settled. Also, travel names and Costco will rally. People are planning vacation 6-9 months out in airplanes and hotels. For cyclicals, buy banks if you think interest rates will rise.
communications / media
BUY
Year-end seasonal trades Travel names and Costco will rally. People are planning vacation 6-9 months out in airplanes and hotels. For cyclicals, but banks if you think interest rates will rise.
department stores
COMMENT
We should test that 10-year yield level of 1.74%, the high earlier this year, and probably surpass it. Then, there'll be a lot of fanfare, yadda yadda. Actually, he thinks we won't see a lot from the Fed for the rest of 2021 apart from doing a few things around the edges, but nothing to hamper the rally. The large tech names will be fine. Mega-growth names will continue to fade. A concern is if the cyclicals move forward during deflation vs. inflation; he expects there'll be a little rotation. Overall, markets go higher.
Unknown
BUY
All the airlines look like they're reading to bounce. Expedia ran from $157 to $188, then stopped on a dime right at the 50% retracement, so it looks due for a run up.
merchandising / lodging
BUY
Up 25% this year. Buy. During the pandemic people ordered out and now people are dining in. The chart says this wants to bounce. He'd still buy this. He likes the chain and restaurants. The future looks brighter than the present.
food services
DON'T BUY
A reluctant pass. The chart looks excellent and he loves the company, but it all comes down to their drive-thrus which they've executed very well. But people want a dining-in experience now and the chart is slightly overextended.
food services
BUY
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/25/tesla-hertz-ev-deal-signal-to-rental-car-fleets-its-time-for-electric.html Close your eyes and buy. It can still go more parabolic, but he wouldn't take profits. Compare it to an EV company, they'll say that Tesla has better battery storage, so it's a real EV battery play vs. an EV company. Either way you perceive it, Tesla wins. If they announce another split, people will buy it, even though there's no fundamental reason to buy it. Elon Musk has so many levers to pull, so you can close your eyes and buy it. A huge tailwind are subscription services worth $7,00-10,000; batteries are a small part of revenue now, but it will tick up. Think of Apple's services. Hitting $2,500 in a few quarters? That's a ludicrous speed.
0
DON'T BUY
They were once bulletproof, but now they're showing weakness. The buyback may support shares tomorrow. A week ago, FB bounced off its 200-day moving average, then fell right into its 200-day right before today's report. This means there's embedded weakness in the stock. We're starting to see critical mass where people are not getting behind FB, and rather advertising dollars are supporting FB. CEO Zuckerberg doesn't look as sympathetic to the public anymore. The stock is seeing a bounce now, but not as strong as recent reports.
0
COMMENT
Mastercard announced that any of its merchants can soon offer crypto services. MA is up 1% YTD, but Visa is up 7% and AmEx 15%. Stay with AmEx. Remember that most banks won't let you buy cryptos; banks are so behind this story and when banks do adopt cyptos then Bitcoin can go much higher.
other services
BUY
He still likes it. If you believe that commodities will move higher, you want to be in the E&P space, because they have upside exposure. If you want to get paid like an annuity with a 6% yield, then KMI is safe to collect. Even better and more well-rounded is Exxon which is up 56% YTD. KMI is definitely a safe, good bet.
pipelines
BUY
AmEx earnings showed that the corporate client is coming back, so corporate travel should come back. Headwinds will eventually turn into tailwinds. The market is waiting-and-seeing now. Ultimately, this sector will be worth owning.
Transportation
COMMENT
Mastercard announced that any of its merchants can soon offer crypto services. MA is up 1% YTD, but Visa is up 7% and AmEx 50%. Stay with AmEx. Remember that most banks won't let you buy cryptos; banks are so behind this story and when banks do adopt cyptos then Bitcoin can go much higher.
Unknown
BUY
Mastercard announced that any of its merchants can soon offer crypto services. MA is up 1% YTD, but Visa is up 7% and AmEx 50%. Stay with AmEx.
investment companies / funds
SELL ON STRENGTH
The current low-rate environment helps megacap tech like Netflix. He's lukewarm on the name though. It could trade down 10% which would be a great buy, not now. He'd sell it now, in fact. The stock is up only 9% but is overbought.
Unknown
COMMENT
Markets shrugged off today's disappointing jobs numbers The market is digesting today's numbers without getting shocked. Bad economic news is good news for the marketplace. It's healthy today that the market was not shocked. Maybe we're still in a sweet spot, but he's less optimistic and feels September will see a 5-7% pullback. Overall, stay the course in the market. Investors are getting complacent. Weaker job numbers increases the odds of more government stimulus. Also, bond yields rose today, which makes stocks a tiny bit less attractive. He's a little skeptical about fall seasonality.
Unknown
BUY
It hasn't performed, but he's still in this. It's number one in iGaming and has a crypto wallet.
Technology
COMMENT
As a barometer of the Russell smallcap index He's too deep in value which had a nice bounce, but investors then reversed that trend to go back into growth. IWM has been in a trading range, sideways, but it touched the 200-day moving average and did not break down, so it means it is building strength. Interest rates need to rise for IWM and the Russell 2000 to break out.
investment companies / funds
COMMENT
Today's employment numbers showed August gains much lower than expected. On Sept. 6, the family stimulus money ends and this will greatly effect job creation numbers and will lead to the Fed tapering and a higher US dollar. Then, the multination companies will have a tougher time. If so, yields will rise and there will be a hard rotation into value out of growth/tech. In turn, the S&P will take a hit.
Unknown
BUY
They just reported. He's long Chewy. People won't stop feeding their pets post-Covid. Chewy will break above $100 again, sooner than later.
Consumer Products
STRONG BUY
He's still long Apple and had been targeting $175 but now he sees it passing $200. Health, the wallet and now satellites, not just the phone are their businesses. All promising.
electrical / electronic
RISKY BUY
It's a tremendous buying opportunity. The price to get back to is $206, implying a 20% bounce, but the chart can still be in a downward trend. Anything can happen tomorrow with a new headline out of China, so be quick mindful that you're risking a lot to the downside.
0
COMMENT
The S&P has been on a juggernaut rally, hitting 48 record highs this year so far and has doubled from the pandemic low of March 23, 2020. Are nervous this could end? Nervous about this market? A trader always is. But with any pandemic pullbacks we saw, the market then moves higher. A big reason is that Jay Powell is in the market's corner by keeping interest rates very low. The market may pull back 5-10% in the future, but it will quickly bounce back because those rates are low. This makes risk-on trading nowadays either value, growth or both.
Unknown
STRONG BUY
Breaking news: Judge rules that Google infringed on patents and sides with Sonos He's owned this starting at $14 a long time ago. He still owns this, so today was an exciting day, more so than any earnings report. There were five patents namedm in the lawsuit, but there were 150 allegedly in the infringement. He expects Google to settle instead of taking this suit to a federal court, which will result in, say, a 20-year licensing fee with Sonos. This will boost Sonos' bottom line and this will demand a total re-rating of this stock. This is a huge win for Sonos.
communications / media
BUY
People bought pets during the pandemic and they need to continue to feed those pets. With more pet owners, sales and revenues for CHWY will keep increasing. He continues to be long this.
Consumer Products
COMMENT
The U.S. 10-year yield keeps falling Financial will go higher, tech goes lower, if rates keep falling. If rates fall to 1%, then all bets are off -- sell the ENTIRE market.
Unknown
WEAK BUY

JPMorgan just downgraded it 60% of Masco's sales come from plumbing, so how big can DIY demand be? It's only up 6% YTD. He likes it, but sees better upside elsewhere like Whirlpool.

contractors
DON'T BUY

Hit new highs today. Up 20% this year so far. The digital media business grows like gangbusters. But since last September, the stock has sold off by 10-15% rough 6-8 occasions. This is overbought at a 79 RSI. This stock could drop 15-20%. If you're long term, wait for a better entry.

computer software / processing
BUY
Gambling stocks plunged today Gambling stocks like this are due for a bounce as the world reopens and there's more sports betting to come.
0
BUY
JPMorgan just upgraded it January's chart was similar: trapped below its 100-day moving average, and when it broke out, it jumped 25% from the low of that average, up to its next high. Whirlpool is up 23% YTD.
household goods
DON'T BUY
Long term, you can buy/trade this. But the chart now looks like April-May when the stock dropped 5-7%. So wait for a better entry. Otherwise, he can't recommend it now.
Consumer Products
BUY
Has a supply chain and distribution channels (important during all these cyber attacks) and trades at a decent PE.
food processing
COMMENT
Jerome Powell's comments today He talked about supply chain disruptions which are freeing up. Stimulus money will eventually end. He thinks we're in a deflationary spiral. We entered the pandemic in a deflationary environment and now we're flattening out. That's why we're not seeing inflation spikes. Even if rates flatten, he's long many value (diversified chemical) plays. There will be a HUGE reopening band, which could counteract any non-rate spike.
Unknown
BUY

UPS is up 19% YTD, Fedex 13%. UPS' CEO is right--there is plenty of competition now and coming. He doesn't know how this will shake out. Wouldn't buy either, but happy to own WRK, a paper and container company that'll be benefit whatever happens.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
BUY
Many are worried that rates will rise but he doesn't expect them to in the near-term so XLP.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
The current Reddit/meme trade. He agrees What are the fundamentals that matter now to AMC stock? Short interest and social velocity. But price is truth. Whether you believe AMC is a good or bad stock, this Reddit trade is the new fundamental reality we are in.
entertainment services
COMMENT
Breaking news that Pres. Biden has rejected the Republicans' latest proposal of the infrastructure bill. Biden can't get it done with just his party's votes; he needs to Repbulicans. This impasse is troubling, because a lot of the current market rally depends on passing this infrastructure bill, so the market can rally even further.
Unknown
COMMENT
Today, the weekly US jobless report disappointed The market lately has really been performing well. The US 10-year yield is trading between 1.55% and 1.74%. If that breaks down, we lose value. If that breaks above, we lose tech. If you're a market index investor, you hope we break down. As long as stay right, it's perfect for all investors.
Unknown
COMMENT
Elon Musk's cyptic Tweet today pressured Bitcoin Musk has talked things like copper and cryptos up or down in price, but there comes a point when the tweets become manipulation.
0
BUY
Crude oil prices hit 2018 highs OIH is 45% YTD. It's a way of hedging your risk, because you're buying a basket of stocks. One stock within OIH can be overvalued, but not the entire OIH.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT

You have to believe in the movie theatre business. They should raise capital and create content to become like Netflix, because the movie theatre business won't exist.

entertainment services
WEAK BUY
The lack of profits in their track record worries him, but the strong upward movement of the chart tells him to give it the benefit of the doubt.
Consumer Products
WEAK BUY
They're in the sweet spot, not going too high or low. The stock split encourages retail investors. He'd still buy this, though he doesn't like tech as a whole now.
computer software / processing
COMMENT
They're about to report. Caveats: People will be putting pants back on as they return to the office. Also, there's so much competition here now, so it'll be interesting to see what they report.
household goods
BUY
Major ransomware attack on meat plants by Russia is the latest of several against the U.S. This shot up today in reaction to the attack. Go with what works and BYND does.
0
COMMENT
Is the tech rally over? The best days are behind tech. Don't buy growth in a rising-rate environment. But human nature only buys what it knows. So if you know only Salesforce, you'll buy back into it, like rushing back into a burning house to get burned again and again. The Russell, industrials and chemical names will continue to outperform.
Unknown
COMMENT
Pent-up demand and value tech names Apple, Microsoft and Google are value plays within tech and will get hit the least among tech names during this rotation into cyclicals. Nobody has any clue what this pent-up demand will be--how big?--because we've never come out of a pandemic. But he expects it will be bigger than many expects, like people taking vacations they never even considered. Hes already sees stores, sidewalks, highways crowded (legally), so he expects there will be huge demand. Also, cycicals and value have underperformed for the last 15 years. He expects the US economy will blow through the roof, which will trip over itself.
Unknown
SELL

Sell it. He gets why it's popular, because sports is opening back up, but that tailwind has probably lost steam. He prefers traditional casinos like Penn Gaming or MGM compared to online gambling like DraftKings.

Technology
BUY
This has retraced 50% from its pre-Covid high to its pandemic low to now at $267. Targeting $309, there's some upside. Trade it.
Transportation
BUY
WPF is due for a huge bounce and underperformance should end. He's sticking with this SPAC.
Financial Services
BUY
Areas that haven't priced in all these US consumer savings and the expected spending boom. Yes, some travel names like airlines are already pricing in this boom, but how many people have never taken a vacation before and will now? People will focus on what they couldn't do after months of sitting at home. Probably Disney theme parks will rally huge. You can still be a buyer of airlines and hotels.
entertainment services
BUY
He still likes it. DHI is a spec builder--they'll have a lot more supply despite concerns over lumber prices, rising wages and especially higher interest rates. Every housing recovery happens when rates rise. Play the names that already have the housing supply on the market. Stick with this.
contractors
DON'T BUY
Chinese stocks vs. QQQ stocks (U.S. tech) He prefers China-related. There's been such negative rhetoric with anything China-based, especially Chinese stocks, like delisting. But this has died down. The rotation will still hit the stocks in QQQ, so he'd rather buy Chinese stocks.
E.T.F.'s
WAIT
Has a superb IPO today It's high growth and high valuation. He considered buying it today, but wants to see it settle. Wait a bit.
Technology
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