President and Portfolio Manager at Black Swan Dexteritas
Member since: Jun '18 · 1257 Opinions
It's been a good run. A good sprint into the end of the year, and the first couple of months of 2024. March has been more of a consolidation. Sometimes it looks like a bit of a selloff, but treat it as a consolidation, and hopefully in Q2 we'll be off to the races.
He has price targets on everything he has in the fund and in separately managed accounts. Normally, when it gets within 5-6% of price target, he takes 1/3 off. Take another 1/3 once it reaches the target. Then evaluate and perhaps even change the price target, though this doesn't happen that often. Always good to bank some profits.
Very much so, except during earnings season. Once earnings season is over, it goes from the micro to the macro. That's what everyone's talking about right now. But we'll be back into earnings season in about 4 weeks' time, and then we're back into the micro.
Everything is pretty well lined up for a pretty good Q2. Consolidation has been good for the market.
In a neutral hedge, he'd normally be short equities between 20-25%. Right now, equities are starting to get close to his price targets. So he's raised the hedge a little bit, now being at a 45% short equity index overlay on top of the stock portfolios.
At the beginning of the year, he had the hedge all the way up to 75-80%. And this was the right thing to do. At that time, everyone thought there'd be a big selloff. Since mid-January, he's had the hedge under 50%.
He'd prefer CSU over TOI, but you should also look at LMN. LMN has done tremendously well since it was spun off. LMN was a vertical business that catered to agri, financial services, and education.
MSFT has software that goes horizontally across a whole bunch of industries, whereas CSU is more vertical. It's been very steady, even when the market goes into selloff mode. Has 5 operating segments.
TOI is out of Europe, and more on the engineering side.
He'd prefer CSU over TOI, but you should also look at LMN. LMN has done tremendously well since it was spun off. LMN was a vertical business that catered to agri, financial services, and education.
MSFT has software that goes horizontally across a whole bunch of industries, whereas CSU is more vertical. It's been very steady, even when the market goes into selloff mode. Has 5 operating segments.
TOI is out of Europe, and more on the engineering side.
He'd prefer CSU over TOI, but you should also look at LMN. LMN has done tremendously well since it was spun off. LMN was a vertical business that catered to agri, financial services, and education.
MSFT has software that goes horizontally across a whole bunch of industries, whereas CSU is more vertical. It's been very steady, even when the market goes into selloff mode. Has 5 operating segments.
TOI is out of Europe, and more on the engineering side.
He's been trimming. 12-month price target of $82, stock's banging up against that. He's still holding onto about 3.5%. Beat on top and bottom in February. Kept guidance, which many haven't. Operating margin still extremely strong. Incorporating generative AI tools. Trim, and look to get in around $73.50 and under $70.
12-month price target of $318. Stick with it. Poster child of customer relationship management.
February 21 earnings banged it out of the park. Raised guidance, a rare event. 12-month target of $648, still decent runway left. If looking to buy in, try in stages at $570-575, and $525.
Treat it as a lottery ticket. Don't add to it if you own it. He could see it going north of $5 over the next 12 months. Tricky situation they got themselves into.
(Analysts’ price target is $9.70)A mecca for AI in Silicon Valley. Really picked up on the Foundry side. As a result, pretty fully priced. 12-month price target of $24.10. Trim a bit. Pretty volatile, so can probably get it around $21.50. Certainly add if goes under $20.
A leader especially in edge computing. Gecko brings AI right to the edge. Active on acquisitions. February reporting was shy on revenues, but kept to guidance. Price target of $128.25, still decent runway. Can buy it here, more at $100, and $95 would be a great place to pick it up.
Getting pricey, with a price target of $194.25, only a couple of dollars away. Keep your eye on it. Try to get it in the $180s, and $170s would be a great place to pick it up.
Liked it until summer of 2023. Shine came off the EV ecosystem. January reporting beat on bottom, bit shy on top. Lowered guidance, and this really hurt. Not in the AI space.