Opinions by Brian Madden | StockChase
229
Brian Madden

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Aug 2016

Goodreid Investment Council

229
Brian Madden

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Aug 2016

Goodreid Investment Council


Opinions by Brian Madden


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General Market Comment 

November 30, 2017

Market.  Round numbers attract a lot of attention (DOW) but the market in the US is moving higher because the economy is growing beyond a 3% clip as it is here in Canada.  Employment data is strong.  TSX profits are growing at an 18% clip compared to a year ago.  In the medium term, he expects stock prices to move higher.  There is a tug of war over seasonality with December being one of the most positive months and the fact that markets are running pretty hot and are overbought.  How that resolves in the short term is anyone’s call.  In the long term, we are in the late stages of an economic cycle (9th year).  He is looking at any number of indicators to know when to take a defensive position.  NAFTA is going to work out.  He thinks it will survive with a lot of noise along the way.  We are getting close to the finish line on the US tax cuts.  He thinks there is some good news coming.

Market.  Round numbers attract a lot of attention (DOW) but the market in the US is moving higher because the economy is growing beyond a 3% clip as it is here in Canada.  Employment data is strong.  TSX profits are growing at an 18% clip compared to a year ago.  In the medium term, he expects stock prices to move higher.  There is a tug of war over seasonality with December being one of the most positive months and the fact that markets are running pretty hot and are overbought.  How that resolves in the short term is anyone’s call.  In the long term, we are in the late stages of an economic cycle (9th year).  He is looking at any number of indicators to know when to take a defensive position.  NAFTA is going to work out.  He thinks it will survive with a lot of noise along the way.  We are getting close to the finish line on the US tax cuts.  He thinks there is some good news coming.

Unknown
Brian Madden

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment ...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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DON'T BUY
General Market Comment 

November 30, 2017

Gold Mining recommendation.  He does not own gold miners.  They perennially find ways to shoot themselves in the foot.  Mining is very difficult.  It is almost impossible to put a discounted cash flow on it.  If you want to own it, try GLD-N or a royalty or streaming company.

Gold Mining recommendation.  He does not own gold miners.  They perennially find ways to shoot themselves in the foot.  Mining is very difficult.  It is almost impossible to put a discounted cash flow on it.  If you want to own it, try GLD-N or a royalty or streaming company.

Unknown
Brian Madden

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment ...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
AutoCanada Inc.(ACQ-T) 

November 30, 2017

(Market Call Minute) There could be a catalyst coming up.  You want to be here for a good tie and not a long time as the Canadian auto sector is a bit long in the tooth.

specialty stores

(Market Call Minute) There could be a catalyst coming up.  You want to be here for a good tie and not a long time as the Canadian auto sector is a bit long in the tooth.

specialty stores
Brian Madden

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment ...

PricePrice
$24.050
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 11/17, Up 10%)  They closed on their largest acquisition in history, and announced another one in the US.  Earlier this week they announced really strong earnings.  Earnings are growing 16-17% and there is lots of runway ahead of them.

food stores

(A Top Pick Jan 11/17, Up 10%)  They closed on their largest acquisition in history, and announced another one in the US.  Earlier this week they announced really strong earnings.  Earnings are growing 16-17% and there is lots of runway ahead of them.

food stores
Brian Madden

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment ...

PricePrice
$65.790
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Celestica Inc(CLS-T) 

November 30, 2017

He does not particularly like it.  Investors think it is a technology play, but really it is a contract manufacturer without a lot of pricing power.  Margins are low and it is fairly cyclical.  The competitive strength is not enough to make him want to have a position.

electrical/electronic

He does not particularly like it.  Investors think it is a technology play, but really it is a contract manufacturer without a lot of pricing power.  Margins are low and it is fairly cyclical.  The competitive strength is not enough to make him want to have a position.

electrical/electronic
Brian Madden

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment ...

PricePrice
$14.000
Owned Owned
No

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BUY

Overwhelmingly oil exposure and oil is doing better than natural gas.  OPEC’s cuts today bode well for this stock.  CPG-T is being held back because Canadian crude is being held up by a lack of pipeline capacity.  Pipeline outages exacerbate what is already going on.  If you believe OPEC has changed the game and oil breaks out of the $50-60 range, then this one, being the more leveraged name will benefit more.

oil/gas

Overwhelmingly oil exposure and oil is doing better than natural gas.  OPEC’s cuts today bode well for this stock.  CPG-T is being held back because Canadian crude is being held up by a lack of pipeline capacity.  Pipeline outages exacerbate what is already going on.  If you believe OPEC has changed the game and oil breaks out of the $50-60 range, then this one, being the more leveraged name will benefit more.

oil/gas
Brian Madden

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment ...

PricePrice
$9.410
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Capital Power(CPX-T) 

November 30, 2017

It is a good entry point.  Their legacy business was coal powered generation.  They are transforming these plants to natural gas and collecting a termination payment from the province.  The yield is close to 7% and the dividend has grown steadily.  The strategy is sound and the entry point looks good.

electrical utilities

It is a good entry point.  Their legacy business was coal powered generation.  They are transforming these plants to natural gas and collecting a termination payment from the province.  The yield is close to 7% and the dividend has grown steadily.  The strategy is sound and the entry point looks good.

electrical utilities
Brian Madden

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment ...

PricePrice
$24.370
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY

(Market Call Minute)  It is operating well but it is two multiple turns more expensive than usual so he would not chase it here.

specialty stores

(Market Call Minute)  It is operating well but it is two multiple turns more expensive than usual so he would not chase it here.

specialty stores
Brian Madden

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment ...

PricePrice
$163.030
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
EnerCare Inc(ECI-T) 

November 30, 2017

Best known for hot water heater rentals.  He likes the business and its stable recurring revenue model, high profitability and a respectable, growing dividend yield.  The valuation keeps him away from it and he would wait for more of a pull back to get interested in it.  This is not a pro-growth stock and he is currently positioning more for growth.

Consumer Products

Best known for hot water heater rentals.  He likes the business and its stable recurring revenue model, high profitability and a respectable, growing dividend yield.  The valuation keeps him away from it and he would wait for more of a pull back to get interested in it.  This is not a pro-growth stock and he is currently positioning more for growth.

Consumer Products
Brian Madden

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment ...

PricePrice
$20.120
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
BUY
Enbridge(ENB-T) 

November 30, 2017

He likes it.  It did well on the TSX today on the back of a corporate update they released yesterday after the close.  They acquired SE-N earlier this year and it was the largest acquisition in their history.  This is now the largest utility in North America.  Their update last night increased the dividend 10%, announced a private equity financing, and maintenance of their investment grade credit rating.  They are scaling down their capital project plans over the next few years.  We should see more good things coming out of this company.

oil/gas pipelines

He likes it.  It did well on the TSX today on the back of a corporate update they released yesterday after the close.  They acquired SE-N earlier this year and it was the largest acquisition in their history.  This is now the largest utility in North America.  Their update last night increased the dividend 10%, announced a private equity financing, and maintenance of their investment grade credit rating.  They are scaling down their capital project plans over the next few years.  We should see more good things coming out of this company.

oil/gas pipelines
Brian Madden

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment ...

PricePrice
$48.650
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
DON'T BUY
GMP Capital Trust Inc(GMP-T) 

November 30, 2017

He is not looking at owning it.  It is a high Beta stock and not a strong franchise.  Investment banking has been weak since the resource cycle peaked several years ago.  They are not likely to pay a dividend any time soon.

investment companies/funds

He is not looking at owning it.  It is a high Beta stock and not a strong franchise.  Investment banking has been weak since the resource cycle peaked several years ago.  They are not likely to pay a dividend any time soon.

investment companies/funds
Brian Madden

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment ...

PricePrice
$2.660
Owned Owned
No

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TOP PICK
Inter Pipeline(IPL-T) 

November 30, 2017

There is a big catalyst in front of them.  They are about to make a decision on a propane dehydrogenation and polypropylene plant in the next quarter.  Alberta is awash in propane so there is a glut.  It has a 6.3% dividend.  80% of the business is underpinned with take or pay contracts.  (Analysts’ target: $29.00).

oil pipelines

There is a big catalyst in front of them.  They are about to make a decision on a propane dehydrogenation and polypropylene plant in the next quarter.  Alberta is awash in propane so there is a glut.  It has a 6.3% dividend.  80% of the business is underpinned with take or pay contracts.  (Analysts’ target: $29.00).

oil pipelines
Brian Madden

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment ...

PricePrice
$27.100
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
PAST TOP PICK
Manulife Financial(MFC-T) 

November 30, 2017

(A Top Pick Jan 11/17, Up 13%)  They have a great deal of exposure to fixed income.  There is a new CEO who is quite impressive.  Their Asian operations are their crown jewel.  The 3% dividend should continue to grow.

insurance

(A Top Pick Jan 11/17, Up 13%)  They have a great deal of exposure to fixed income.  There is a new CEO who is quite impressive.  Their Asian operations are their crown jewel.  The 3% dividend should continue to grow.

insurance
Brian Madden

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment ...

PricePrice
$27.110
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
BUY
Magna Int'l. (A)(MG-T) 

November 30, 2017

(Market Call Minute)  He likes it.  It has a good global footprint.  High ROE and a good capital return to shareholder strategy.  If it has become outsized in your portfolio, don’t be shy about taking profits.

Automotive

(Market Call Minute)  He likes it.  It has a good global footprint.  High ROE and a good capital return to shareholder strategy.  If it has become outsized in your portfolio, don’t be shy about taking profits.

Automotive
Brian Madden

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment ...

PricePrice
$72.370
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
PARTIAL SELL
National Bank of Canada(NA-T) 

November 30, 2017

It has had a remarkable run over the last 10 years.  It has doubled.  This is mostly due to the management team.  It has the highest return on equity of the group.  It has re-rated higher.  It has gone from being a small regional bank to one of the big boys.  It is now one of the big-six banks (formerly 5).  He would be tempted to take partial profits.  There is nothing wrong with it operationally. 

banks

It has had a remarkable run over the last 10 years.  It has doubled.  This is mostly due to the management team.  It has the highest return on equity of the group.  It has re-rated higher.  It has gone from being a small regional bank to one of the big boys.  It is now one of the big-six banks (formerly 5).  He would be tempted to take partial profits.  There is nothing wrong with it operationally. 

banks
Brian Madden

Senior VP & Portfolio Manager, Goodreid Investment ...

PricePrice
$63.570
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
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