Opinions by Lorne Zeiler | StockChase
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Lorne Zeiler

Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jul 2016

TriDelta Financial


Opinions by Lorne Zeiler


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2016-12-23

COMMENT
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T)

CIBC or another Canadian bank?Canadian banks have had a fantastic year. The 6 have basically been responsible for half, if not more, of the total gains on the TSX this year. As a group, they have returned roughly 30% this year. The issue with the banks is that they are now trading above their historical multiples, particularly because in the last few months, they’ve had a big increase along with the US financials, on expectations that net interest margins are going to expand. If there is further deterioration on Canadian fundamentals, this is the most domestically focused bank. Royal (RY-T) is probably a better name to go with.

banks
Lorne Zeiler

Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor, TriDelta Financial

Price: $110.860
Owned: Unknown

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2016-12-23

COMMENT
Canadian National R.R. (CNR-T)

Canadian National (CNR-T) or Canadian Pacific (CP-T)?In his view, this one is the better choice. It is the best quality management, lowest cost operator and the company that puts the most money into their fleet. Trading at a slight premium to Canadian Pacific.

Transportation
Lorne Zeiler

Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor, TriDelta Financial

Price: $91.520
Owned: Yes

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2016-12-23

COMMENT
Canadian Pacific Rail (CP-T)

Canadian National (CNR-T) or Canadian Pacific (CP-T)?In his view, Canadian National is the better choice. It is the best quality management, lowest cost operator and the company that puts the most money into their fleet.

Transportation
Lorne Zeiler

Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor, TriDelta Financial

Price: $193.870
Owned: No

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2016-12-23

PAST TOP PICK
Computer Program & Systems (CPSI-Q)

(A Top Pick July 29/16. Down 39.82%.) Had been looking at this, and it had a great sales pipeline. He was looking at it to realize on some of that pipeline. It did not meet expectations so he exited at about $28 in August.

Lorne Zeiler

Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor, TriDelta Financial

Price: $23.350
Owned: No

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2016-12-23

COMMENT
Cisco (CSCO-Q)

A name that he likes. The industry leader. It is huge. Trading at a very reasonable valuation of about 13.5-14 times earnings. Earnings growth has been at the lower end, 2%-5% a year. Roughly 30% of the market cap is sitting in cash. If you X that out, you are looking at a 10X valuation, and he doesn’t think the market has put much on that. If repatriation for US companies happens, you are going to see some dividend increases and increased share buyback.

electrical/electronic
Lorne Zeiler

Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor, TriDelta Financial

Price: $30.530
Owned: Yes

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2016-12-23

COMMENT
DH Corporation (DH-T (Dead))

Sold his holdings in May, when there was a bad quarter of earnings. The company did a number of acquisitions; however the acquisitions weren’t bringing the revenue in fast enough, and hence they were over levered on all of them. Q4 basically missed on all factors, and the stock fell off a cliff. They’ve been able to renegotiate their debt covenants, so that is all clean. Also, reduced distributions. The last move, from $17 to about $18, was based on the potential of an acquisition. If it does not happen, he expects the stock will decline. However, if it does happen, you could see about 20% from where we are today.

other services
Lorne Zeiler

Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor, TriDelta Financial

Price: $21.990
Owned: No

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2016-12-23

COMMENT
Firm Capital Mortgage Investment (FC-T)

He prefers the private space, because they are just getting the trend on how much you are receiving from the mortgages. You are getting a lot more ability, and pricewise it is about the same. Firm Capital is a well-run company.

Financial Services
Lorne Zeiler

Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor, TriDelta Financial

Price: $14.030
Owned: No

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2016-12-23

COMMENT
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ-N)

One of the names you want to hold in the pharmaceutical healthcare area for the long term. The pharmaceutical healthcare field has had good earnings growth, and are expecting significant earnings growth next year, especially on the pharmacy side. These kinds of names were really hurt in 2016, because there was fear that if Clinton came in, they are going to start regulating prices along with additional regulations on the pharmaceutical industry. This trades at a premium to the group at about 20-21 times earnings. They have a great platform with a pipeline of about 10 medications that should be coming on market in the next 5 years. They are great at cost cutting. Also there is a potential acquisition they are looking at.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
Lorne Zeiler

Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor, TriDelta Financial

Price: $115.960
Owned: Unknown

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2016-12-23

PAST TOP PICK
LyondellBasell Industries (LYB-N)

(A Top Pick July 29/16. Up 19%.) This was great value. Basically industrial, focused on the chemical side. Producing plastics is its main business. Stable oil prices really helped out. Trading at about a 30% discount to its peers, which is warranted, because earnings are likely to be lacklustre in the next little while. You are still getting a 4%+ dividend. There is still room left on the stock.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
Lorne Zeiler

Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor, TriDelta Financial

Price: $87.700
Owned: Yes

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2016-12-23

BUY
Manulife Financial (MFC-T)

5-year hold?You are not going to have concerns about this company. They are growing their asset management business significantly. If you are a dividend investor, you want to be in some names that are interest sensitive, and the lifecos are interest sensitive names. Prefers Sun Life (SLF-T) whose footprint into India has been very successful, and they are now moving into China. However, both are great companies.

insurance
Lorne Zeiler

Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor, TriDelta Financial

Price: $24.430
Owned: No

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2016-12-23

COMMENT
Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW-N)

The biggest paint and wallcovering company in the US. The stock has moved significantly, much more so than earnings. This is one where you want to wait for the price to come down or for earnings to go up.

misc consumer products
Lorne Zeiler

Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor, TriDelta Financial

Price: $272.300
Owned: Unknown

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2016-12-23

PARTIAL BUY
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA-N)

This is one where the valuation is very compelling. It’s at a 52-week low, and in this environment, you would think a generic company would do very, very well. At this level it is definitely worth dipping into it. They are expecting 15%-20% growth in emerging markets, and this company will be able to participate.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
Lorne Zeiler

Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor, TriDelta Financial

Price: $36.820
Owned: No

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2016-12-23

TOP PICK
TransCanada Corp (TRP-T)

Great management team. Reasonable valuation to the peer group. There is going to be a lot of pipeline that he is expecting to come online in the next number of years. There is about $25 billion of infrastructure that has been spent, and will be coming online, probably within the next 2 years. There is another $45 billion that is likely coming on in the next 5 years from there. A huge amount of growth in that space. The company has said that they are likely to increase dividends at a 10% clip over the next 5 years. We are also likely going to see Keystone approved. Dividend yield of 3.64%. (Analysts’ price target is $68.31.)

oil/gas pipelines
Lorne Zeiler

Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor, TriDelta Financial

Price: $62.130
Owned: Yes

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2016-12-23

PAST TOP PICK
BMO S&P/TSX Laddered Preferred (ZPR-T)

(A Top Pick July 29/16. Up 8.13%.) Has a lot of clients that are really focused on how they are going to get the income they need. Every 5 years, these preferred shares get reset, and they benefit when interest rates are going up.

E.T.F.'s
Lorne Zeiler

Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor, TriDelta Financial

Price: $10.580
Owned: Yes

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2016-07-29

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Markets. People are thinking the equity market is more attractive than the alternatives of fixed income and dividend paying stocks, and have been putting money in. It is interesting that the markets most hit, particularly in Europe, have actually been some of the better performers this month. Feels the Fed has turned less dovish, and are hoping to raise rates, and he anticipates one hike before year-end. He’s been looking at some of the stocks that have been beaten down. There are some high dividend payers that may not have met expectations, or are seeing some declines in earnings, and those have been punished quite a bit. He is also looking at some, where growth is coming but not visible in the next 3-6 months.

Lorne Zeiler

Portfolio Manager & Wealth Advisor, TriDelta Financial

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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