Stock Opinions by Jim McGovern - Stockchase Experts
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Jim McGovern

On Stockchase since : Jun 2016

CEO at Arrow Capital Management

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Stock Opinions by Jim McGovern - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

June 5, 2017

Market. The market was already poised to head higher before Trump was elected. The trends were already in place. What is interesting is that the Trump bump everyone was looking for i.e. get Long banks and get Short bonds, etc. had a really nice run up until the middle part of the new year, and has subsequently given everything back. People are now very much in a “wait and see” hold pattern with respect to the whole reflation trade. Several sectors are really propelling the S&P 500 narrow rally, the consumer discretionary and technology. The backdrop for technology is really conducive. We are in a period right now where you have inflation falling, real GDP growth accelerating, and that backdrop is about as good as you can get for the technology sector. Inflation is still benign. Technology has now moved up to about 25% of the S&P, which is really, really substantial. People should be rebalancing portfolios now. At some point there is going to be a real reversion trade. He has Short positions now on the broad indexes of Canada and Australia.

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Market. The market was already poised to head higher before Trump was elected. The trends were already in place. What is interesting is that the Trump bump everyone was looking for i.e. get Long banks and get Short bonds, etc. had a really nice run up until the middle part of the new year, and has subsequently given everything back. People are now very much in a “wait and see” hold pattern with respect to the whole reflation trade. Several sectors are really propelling the S&P 500 narrow rally, the consumer discretionary and technology. The backdrop for technology is really conducive. We are in a period right now where you have inflation falling, real GDP growth accelerating, and that backdrop is about as good as you can get for the technology sector. Inflation is still benign. Technology has now moved up to about 25% of the S&P, which is really, really substantial. People should be rebalancing portfolios now. At some point there is going to be a real reversion trade. He has Short positions now on the broad indexes of Canada and Australia.

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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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COMMENT
Amazon.com(AMZN-Q) 

June 5, 2017

The classic category killer. In his funds, he is Long this company and Short the things that Amazon is killing, certain retailers, etc. Not a cheap stock at 28X enterprise value to EBITDA. It certainly has a lot of runway in front of it. They are getting involved in every vertical with respect to retailing. He is nervous.

specialty stores
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The classic category killer. In his funds, he is Long this company and Short the things that Amazon is killing, certain retailers, etc. Not a cheap stock at 28X enterprise value to EBITDA. It certainly has a lot of runway in front of it. They are getting involved in every vertical with respect to retailing. He is nervous.

specialty stores
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$1011.340
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Toronto Dominion(TD-T) 

June 5, 2017

Like a lot of Canadian banks, it has US operations, which would probably be the one area he would be most excited about, in part because the US banks find themselves in a better environment than they do in Canada. Thinks there will be legislation changes in the US, which favours bank shares in general. The flipside is the constant buzz on the Canadian real estate market. This bank operates in the prime mortgage market. Doesn’t think you’re going to make a lot of money in any of the Canadian banks right now. He would much rather focus on banks internationally rather than domestically.

banks
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Like a lot of Canadian banks, it has US operations, which would probably be the one area he would be most excited about, in part because the US banks find themselves in a better environment than they do in Canada. Thinks there will be legislation changes in the US, which favours bank shares in general. The flipside is the constant buzz on the Canadian real estate market. This bank operates in the prime mortgage market. Doesn’t think you’re going to make a lot of money in any of the Canadian banks right now. He would much rather focus on banks internationally rather than domestically.

banks
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$64.590
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Lockheed Martin(LMT-N) 

June 5, 2017

Has been very favourably disposed to this area. The stocks in this area are all very expensive. If you look at the geopolitical environment we are in now, the US doesn’t want to be the policeman or watchdog of the world. Feels the wind is at your back in the sector. You want to go with the major players, including Lockheed, Northrop Grumman (NOC-N), Raytheon (RTN-N).

Transportation
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Has been very favourably disposed to this area. The stocks in this area are all very expensive. If you look at the geopolitical environment we are in now, the US doesn’t want to be the policeman or watchdog of the world. Feels the wind is at your back in the sector. You want to go with the major players, including Lockheed, Northrop Grumman (NOC-N), Raytheon (RTN-N).

Transportation
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$280.130
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Walmart Inc(WMT-N) 

June 5, 2017

Has owned this for a long, long time. It is basically in the crosshairs of Amazon (AMZN-Q), but it is a retailer he would prefer over all others. They focus on the lower end of the market, which he feels still has decent growth ahead of it. The company is putting in the effort to fight back on the online side. Their e-commerce sales are doing very, very well. Not a super cheap company. They buy back oodles of stock every year.

department stores
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Has owned this for a long, long time. It is basically in the crosshairs of Amazon (AMZN-Q), but it is a retailer he would prefer over all others. They focus on the lower end of the market, which he feels still has decent growth ahead of it. The company is putting in the effort to fight back on the online side. Their e-commerce sales are doing very, very well. Not a super cheap company. They buy back oodles of stock every year.

department stores
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$80.260
Owned Owned
Yes

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PARTIAL BUY
Shopify Inc.(SHOP-T) 

June 5, 2017

The market cap is around $12 billion. In the grand scheme of things, everyone knows that Amazon (AMZN-Q) is eventually going to buy these guys out. The growth of this thing internationally is fabulous. He would scale into this and not buy into it all at once.

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The market cap is around $12 billion. In the grand scheme of things, everyone knows that Amazon (AMZN-Q) is eventually going to buy these guys out. The growth of this thing internationally is fabulous. He would scale into this and not buy into it all at once.

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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$131.770
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT

Lloyds (LYG-N) or ING (ING-N)? He would favour ING, the Dutch insurer, over Lloyds. In the UK, Lloyds has had a big restructuring coming out of the financial crisis, and clearly that is now behind it. The problem is the political and economic uncertainty background in the UK.

banks
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Lloyds (LYG-N) or ING (ING-N)? He would favour ING, the Dutch insurer, over Lloyds. In the UK, Lloyds has had a big restructuring coming out of the financial crisis, and clearly that is now behind it. The problem is the political and economic uncertainty background in the UK.

banks
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$3.660
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
ING Groep NV(ING-N) 

June 5, 2017

Lloyds (LYG-N) or ING (ING-N)? He would favour this over Lloyds. In the UK, Lloyds has had a big restructuring coming out of the financial crisis, and clearly that is now behind it. The problem is the political and economic uncertainty background in the UK. ING is a terrific business and is a very, very inexpensive stock. Thinks interest rates in Europe are set to go up, which should put the wind at the back of this bank.

investment companies/funds
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Lloyds (LYG-N) or ING (ING-N)? He would favour this over Lloyds. In the UK, Lloyds has had a big restructuring coming out of the financial crisis, and clearly that is now behind it. The problem is the political and economic uncertainty background in the UK. ING is a terrific business and is a very, very inexpensive stock. Thinks interest rates in Europe are set to go up, which should put the wind at the back of this bank.

investment companies/funds
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$16.840
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Albemarle Corp(ALB-N) 

June 5, 2017

(A Top Pick Oct 3/16. Up 35%.) This is firing on all cylinders. The lithium market is a market that is underappreciated, both from the constraint/supply side and the expectations on the demand side. Lithium is very much an Asian story, and probably is why this company has been undervalued for quite some time. Still a Buy.

Mining
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(A Top Pick Oct 3/16. Up 35%.) This is firing on all cylinders. The lithium market is a market that is underappreciated, both from the constraint/supply side and the expectations on the demand side. Lithium is very much an Asian story, and probably is why this company has been undervalued for quite some time. Still a Buy.

Mining
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$113.610
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Foot Locker(FL-N) 

June 5, 2017

(A Top Pick Oct 3/16. Up 14%.) *Short* At the end of the day, all retailers are going to suffer the same fate from the Amazon (AMZN-Q) affect. A cheap stock, but a bit of a value trap. He covered his Short on the earnings disappointment, but would look to re-Short if it bounced materially from here.

clothing stores
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(A Top Pick Oct 3/16. Up 14%.) *Short* At the end of the day, all retailers are going to suffer the same fate from the Amazon (AMZN-Q) affect. A cheap stock, but a bit of a value trap. He covered his Short on the earnings disappointment, but would look to re-Short if it bounced materially from here.

clothing stores
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$57.600
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
SPDR Gold ETF(GLD-N) 

June 5, 2017

(A Top Pick Oct 3/16. Down 3%.) You have to own gold all the time. It’s a form of currency and a proxy to the US$, which he thinks is bottoming out. Has reduced his gold exposure materially, but always has some on.

investment companies/funds
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(A Top Pick Oct 3/16. Down 3%.) You have to own gold all the time. It’s a form of currency and a proxy to the US$, which he thinks is bottoming out. Has reduced his gold exposure materially, but always has some on.

investment companies/funds
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$121.730
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT

Investing in Ireland? This is an iShares ETF for Ireland, which will give you a diversified basket of stocks. The Irish economy is a little like the Canadian economy, a small market, basically financial, building, construction and agriculture. He wouldn’t make this a cornerstone of a portfolio.

E.T.F.'s
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Investing in Ireland? This is an iShares ETF for Ireland, which will give you a diversified basket of stocks. The Irish economy is a little like the Canadian economy, a small market, basically financial, building, construction and agriculture. He wouldn’t make this a cornerstone of a portfolio.

E.T.F.'s
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$44.330
Owned Owned
Unknown

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N/A
General Market Comment 

June 5, 2017

US banks versus Canadian and European banks? US banks in general are cheaper, comparing some of the money centred banks like Wells Fargo (WFC-N) and Citi (C-N). On the general outlook, there are some real positive tailwinds, whereas in Canada there are a few headwinds. Also, he would be playing more of the bigger cap money centred type banks, as opposed to regionals. The European side does look good, and there is an ETF iShares MSCI Europe Financial (EUFN-Q) which is a broad composite of European banks. These are banks that have not moved that much. There is a big opportunity in European banks. He would choose banks in the order of 1) European, 2) US and 3) Canada.

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US banks versus Canadian and European banks? US banks in general are cheaper, comparing some of the money centred banks like Wells Fargo (WFC-N) and Citi (C-N). On the general outlook, there are some real positive tailwinds, whereas in Canada there are a few headwinds. Also, he would be playing more of the bigger cap money centred type banks, as opposed to regionals. The European side does look good, and there is an ETF iShares MSCI Europe Financial (EUFN-Q) which is a broad composite of European banks. These are banks that have not moved that much. There is a big opportunity in European banks. He would choose banks in the order of 1) European, 2) US and 3) Canada.

Unknown
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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BUY

One of the finest alternative asset management teams globally. By buying the top company, you are getting investment stakes in all the different subsidiaries. Good management.

management/diversified
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One of the finest alternative asset management teams globally. By buying the top company, you are getting investment stakes in all the different subsidiaries. Good management.

management/diversified
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$51.470
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Deutsche Bank AG(DB-N) 

June 5, 2017

The biggest bank in Germany, so there is no way this would ever be put into receivership. The government would step in. Despite that, it is a very risky bank. They have multiples and multiples of their BV in all kinds of strange things. It’s like J.P. Morgan (JPM-N) on steroids. They are a massive player in the capital markets and the banking markets globally. He would prefer using a broader basket of banks through an ETF like iShares MSCI Europe Financial (EUFN-Q).

banks
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The biggest bank in Germany, so there is no way this would ever be put into receivership. The government would step in. Despite that, it is a very risky bank. They have multiples and multiples of their BV in all kinds of strange things. It’s like J.P. Morgan (JPM-N) on steroids. They are a massive player in the capital markets and the banking markets globally. He would prefer using a broader basket of banks through an ETF like iShares MSCI Europe Financial (EUFN-Q).

banks
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$17.500
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY

A Great Britain ETF? He is not wild about Britain right now, only because the uncertainty is very difficult. Remember you are taking exposure to the British pound indirectly, which bounces around like a ping-pong ball.

E.T.F.'s
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A Great Britain ETF? He is not wild about Britain right now, only because the uncertainty is very difficult. Remember you are taking exposure to the British pound indirectly, which bounces around like a ping-pong ball.

E.T.F.'s
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$34.740
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT

Kinder Morgan (KMI-N) or Kinder Morgan Canada (KML-T)? In the short term, he would choose neither. If certain things happen, he would look at the Kinder Morgan Canada position. The Canadian subsidiary, without the pipeline expansion, is worth $15. That is just on the assets and the quality of the assets. Since you can get the shares close to $15, you are getting all the optionality. He is waiting for an opportunity to get this under $16. In the US, it is an MLP, and he is not positive on the MLP market. *Correction by BNN on June 6/17 that they are no longer an MLP, they are a common stock company. (Bill) There is just so much debt associated in that area.

pipelines
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Kinder Morgan (KMI-N) or Kinder Morgan Canada (KML-T)? In the short term, he would choose neither. If certain things happen, he would look at the Kinder Morgan Canada position. The Canadian subsidiary, without the pipeline expansion, is worth $15. That is just on the assets and the quality of the assets. Since you can get the shares close to $15, you are getting all the optionality. He is waiting for an opportunity to get this under $16. In the US, it is an MLP, and he is not positive on the MLP market. *Correction by BNN on June 6/17 that they are no longer an MLP, they are a common stock company. (Bill) There is just so much debt associated in that area.

pipelines
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$18.960
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY

The insurance company he would be a buyer of today. The nice thing is the global diversification. You are getting the US business, the asset manager and the underwriting life insurance business, but more importantly you are getting the Asian exposure, in particular China. If you just tuck this away, as rates creep higher globally and the insurance markets heal, it’s a company you need to own.

insurance
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The insurance company he would be a buyer of today. The nice thing is the global diversification. You are getting the US business, the asset manager and the underwriting life insurance business, but more importantly you are getting the Asian exposure, in particular China. If you just tuck this away, as rates creep higher globally and the insurance markets heal, it’s a company you need to own.

insurance
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$23.510
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT

Kinder Morgan (KMI-N) or Kinder Morgan Canada (KML-T)? In the short term, he would choose neither. If certain things happen, he would look at the Kinder Morgan Canada position. The Canadian subsidiary, without the pipeline expansion, is worth $15. That is just on the assets and the quality of the assets. Since you can get the shares close to $15, you are getting all the optionality. He is waiting for an opportunity to get this under $16. In the US, it is an MLP, and he is not positive on the MLP market. There is just so much debt associated in that area.

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Kinder Morgan (KMI-N) or Kinder Morgan Canada (KML-T)? In the short term, he would choose neither. If certain things happen, he would look at the Kinder Morgan Canada position. The Canadian subsidiary, without the pipeline expansion, is worth $15. That is just on the assets and the quality of the assets. Since you can get the shares close to $15, you are getting all the optionality. He is waiting for an opportunity to get this under $16. In the US, it is an MLP, and he is not positive on the MLP market. There is just so much debt associated in that area.

0
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$16.520
Owned Owned
Unknown

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TOP PICK
Invesco Ltd.(IVZ-N) 

June 5, 2017

A really interesting business. They straddle 2 businesses. There is an active money manager business and then there is a path of ETF’s. Power Shares is the 4th largest ETF platform in the world. They have a very strong and growing organic active business, and a terrific growing ETF business. Dividend yield of 3.5%. Thinks the stock should trade upwards of $40. (Analysts’ price target is $36.)

Financial Services
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A really interesting business. They straddle 2 businesses. There is an active money manager business and then there is a path of ETF’s. Power Shares is the 4th largest ETF platform in the world. They have a very strong and growing organic active business, and a terrific growing ETF business. Dividend yield of 3.5%. Thinks the stock should trade upwards of $40. (Analysts’ price target is $36.)

Financial Services
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$33.340
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
General Market Comment 

June 5, 2017

EUR/USD *Short*. The euro today is around 1.1257, and has had a really strong move up from 1.05 earlier in the year. This is predicated on the fact that people think Draghi is going to curtail corporate bond buying. Thinks that is going to change. Real economic growth in the US is accelerating, and in Europe he thinks it is topping out. Another wildcard is the Italian election which is coming up, which will cause some consternation in the market.

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EUR/USD *Short*. The euro today is around 1.1257, and has had a really strong move up from 1.05 earlier in the year. This is predicated on the fact that people think Draghi is going to curtail corporate bond buying. Thinks that is going to change. Real economic growth in the US is accelerating, and in Europe he thinks it is topping out. Another wildcard is the Italian election which is coming up, which will cause some consternation in the market.

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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK

*Short*. The Company derives a good chunk of its revenue through its credit card business of about 40%, and its auto financing business, another 20%. Of that business, approximately one 3rd is subprime. One weak link in the US market is the subprime market where delinquencies and some of the charges are going to increase. Dividend yield of 2.1%. Thinks the stock can trade down to $59. (Analysts’ price target is $98.)

finance/leasing
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*Short*. The Company derives a good chunk of its revenue through its credit card business of about 40%, and its auto financing business, another 20%. Of that business, approximately one 3rd is subprime. One weak link in the US market is the subprime market where delinquencies and some of the charges are going to increase. Dividend yield of 2.1%. Thinks the stock can trade down to $59. (Analysts’ price target is $98.)

finance/leasing
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$78.330
Owned Owned
Yes

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N/A
General Market Comment 

February 9, 2017

Market. Equity values are at stretched valuations, so if there are disappointments on the policy front, we could be in for some trouble. His strategy is being long financials, industrials and energy. There is still a lot of risk out there. The principal risk is in valuations. The US has really been a magnet for a lot of the world’s investable capital, and as a result we are getting a pretty bifurcated market right now. He is bullish on Japanese shares, but his caveat is to be hedged, and he is Short the Long Japanese shares, a play that has got a lot of folks interested again, partly because the Japanese monetary authorities have changed their policies more towards targeting yields. As a result, you typically get currency going down and the stock market going up. France is also very interesting. On the debt side, he is starting to see the spread starting to move out quite a bit from where the German Bund would be on the curve, as well as some skittishness in the equity market. He hopes to take advantage of volatility that will come out of the election. He’s been Short the Cdn$ for quite a while, but has it on a fairly short lease because it has been probing the $.70 level on a couple of occasions, and has been bouncing in a range of $.75-$.77. The issue here is partially a hedge against growth continuing to slow. If the Trump bump doesn’t manifest itself the way the market thinks, or doesn’t have the repercussions globally, he expects the Cdn$ and Australian $ will both be under pressure.

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Market. Equity values are at stretched valuations, so if there are disappointments on the policy front, we could be in for some trouble. His strategy is being long financials, industrials and energy. There is still a lot of risk out there. The principal risk is in valuations. The US has really been a magnet for a lot of the world’s investable capital, and as a result we are getting a pretty bifurcated market right now. He is bullish on Japanese shares, but his caveat is to be hedged, and he is Short the Long Japanese shares, a play that has got a lot of folks interested again, partly because the Japanese monetary authorities have changed their policies more towards targeting yields. As a result, you typically get currency going down and the stock market going up. France is also very interesting. On the debt side, he is starting to see the spread starting to move out quite a bit from where the German Bund would be on the curve, as well as some skittishness in the equity market. He hopes to take advantage of volatility that will come out of the election. He’s been Short the Cdn$ for quite a while, but has it on a fairly short lease because it has been probing the $.70 level on a couple of occasions, and has been bouncing in a range of $.75-$.77. The issue here is partially a hedge against growth continuing to slow. If the Trump bump doesn’t manifest itself the way the market thinks, or doesn’t have the repercussions globally, he expects the Cdn$ and Australian $ will both be under pressure.

Unknown
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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COMMENT
Amazon.com(AMZN-Q) 

February 9, 2017

The proverbial story of valuation versus fundamentals. This is really a killer in its categories of online retailing and Cloud services. However, it is not cheap. You are looking at 25 to 28 times cash flow. They have a fair bit of growth to achieve in the next little while to come into that valuation. He would prefer looking at this in 2 parts, online retailing and Cloud services, so would suggest maybe looking at Microsoft, which has been growing its share in Cloud services. A cheaper stock and pays a dividend.

specialty stores
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The proverbial story of valuation versus fundamentals. This is really a killer in its categories of online retailing and Cloud services. However, it is not cheap. You are looking at 25 to 28 times cash flow. They have a fair bit of growth to achieve in the next little while to come into that valuation. He would prefer looking at this in 2 parts, online retailing and Cloud services, so would suggest maybe looking at Microsoft, which has been growing its share in Cloud services. A cheaper stock and pays a dividend.

specialty stores
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$821.360
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Aegon N.V.(AEG-N) 

February 9, 2017

He would prefer ING Groep NV (ING-N), which is very cheap and trading at around Book right now. Expects rates in Europe will start to rise, and he would focus on the highest quality names.

Financial Services
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He would prefer ING Groep NV (ING-N), which is very cheap and trading at around Book right now. Expects rates in Europe will start to rise, and he would focus on the highest quality names.

Financial Services
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$5.540
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD
Glencore(GLEN-LN) 

February 9, 2017

Had a near-death experience because of debt, and it took a change in commodity prices for it turn. If bullish on industrial commodities, this is one you could continue to own. Has a lot of hidden assets.

conglomerate
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Had a near-death experience because of debt, and it took a change in commodity prices for it turn. If bullish on industrial commodities, this is one you could continue to own. Has a lot of hidden assets.

conglomerate
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$0.010
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Walt Disney(DIS-N) 

February 9, 2017

One of the premier media companies globally. The management team is critical on this name. There is speculation that Bob Iger is going to be staying on past 2018. The real challenge has been ESPN. Thinks the worst days are now behind it, and you can trade it up into the $120-$130 level.

entertainment services
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One of the premier media companies globally. The management team is critical on this name. There is speculation that Bob Iger is going to be staying on past 2018. The real challenge has been ESPN. Thinks the worst days are now behind it, and you can trade it up into the $120-$130 level.

entertainment services
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$109.490
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD
Apple(AAPL-Q) 

February 9, 2017

He likes this. Over the last 4-5 months, iPhone 7 was not as bad as he had expected, and also the services side of the business is growing faster than he had thought it would. Also, that is in the context of a not very robust economy. Looking at the product cycle coming, some of the big improvements they’ve made in their laptop and the Mac business and its low valuation, he covered his Short position and is now Long.

electrical/electronic
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He likes this. Over the last 4-5 months, iPhone 7 was not as bad as he had expected, and also the services side of the business is growing faster than he had thought it would. Also, that is in the context of a not very robust economy. Looking at the product cycle coming, some of the big improvements they’ve made in their laptop and the Mac business and its low valuation, he covered his Short position and is now Long.

electrical/electronic
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$132.420
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT

Just released really, really strong results. Terrific operators and have great properties. He is a little concerned with the natural gas price not going up dramatically from here. Also, you should be a little cautious about the border adjustment tax Trump is floating and its impact on Canadian E & P companies.

oil/gas
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Just released really, really strong results. Terrific operators and have great properties. He is a little concerned with the natural gas price not going up dramatically from here. Also, you should be a little cautious about the border adjustment tax Trump is floating and its impact on Canadian E & P companies.

oil/gas
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$7.950
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Albemarle Corp(ALB-N) 

February 9, 2017

(A Top Pick June 28/16. Up 20.83%.) Lithium. Last quarter they completed the transaction of one of their processing plant businesses in China, so they have a little bit of a war chest now, and he expects them to go out and buy a lithium producers, possibly in Australia. He still likes this and feels the price of lithium will continue to go up as the demand for electrification continues. Still a Buy.

Mining
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(A Top Pick June 28/16. Up 20.83%.) Lithium. Last quarter they completed the transaction of one of their processing plant businesses in China, so they have a little bit of a war chest now, and he expects them to go out and buy a lithium producers, possibly in Australia. He still likes this and feels the price of lithium will continue to go up as the demand for electrification continues. Still a Buy.

Mining
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$93.910
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 28/16. Down 10.16%.) The grains market has been under pressure. He picked this because it had 3 principal commodities, soybeans, wheat and corn. The soybean part of the trade worked out well, but the corn and wheat not so much.

E.T.F.'s
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(A Top Pick June 28/16. Down 10.16%.) The grains market has been under pressure. He picked this because it had 3 principal commodities, soybeans, wheat and corn. The soybean part of the trade worked out well, but the corn and wheat not so much.

E.T.F.'s
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$29.960
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 28/16. Down 0.62%.) This is flat, but flat is good in the fixed income world. This is really a play on inflation expectations. Rather than buying long-term government treasuries where you would have lost a lot of money, he has made more of a bet on inflation coming back. He exited this trade and has gone for more direct trades that you can get through derivatives and OTC type instruments to get Long shorter term inflation.

E.T.F.'s
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(A Top Pick June 28/16. Down 0.62%.) This is flat, but flat is good in the fixed income world. This is really a play on inflation expectations. Rather than buying long-term government treasuries where you would have lost a lot of money, he has made more of a bet on inflation coming back. He exited this trade and has gone for more direct trades that you can get through derivatives and OTC type instruments to get Long shorter term inflation.

E.T.F.'s
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$114.110
Owned Owned
No

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BUY

One of his favourite financials. You are basically buying the top piece in the Brookfield Empire. They just reported a very, very good quarter. One reason he likes this is that it straddles a lot of different businesses, so you are not really buying a pure play type company nor a traditional financial asset manager, but more of a hybrid.

management/diversified
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One of his favourite financials. You are basically buying the top piece in the Brookfield Empire. They just reported a very, very good quarter. One reason he likes this is that it straddles a lot of different businesses, so you are not really buying a pure play type company nor a traditional financial asset manager, but more of a hybrid.

management/diversified
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$48.300
Owned Owned
Yes

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SELL
Starbucks(SBUX-Q) 

February 9, 2017

A fairly controversial name right now. He would be inclined to be a short seller on this. Howard Schultz departure is a negative, as he is an icon in the business world, and very hard to replace. Also, he is fairly bullish on dairy prices, which is a big input cost for them. They’ve had a few hiccups with the mobile pickups. The valuation versus what has been delivered over the last few quarters has a bit of a disconnect. Dividend yield of 1.8%.

food services
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A fairly controversial name right now. He would be inclined to be a short seller on this. Howard Schultz departure is a negative, as he is an icon in the business world, and very hard to replace. Also, he is fairly bullish on dairy prices, which is a big input cost for them. They’ve had a few hiccups with the mobile pickups. The valuation versus what has been delivered over the last few quarters has a bit of a disconnect. Dividend yield of 1.8%.

food services
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$55.810
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
Diageo PLC(DEO-N) 

February 9, 2017

A massive conglomerate. To him, it sits in the sweet spot of what he is looking for. A solid consumer staple and great brand recognition. Pays a decent dividend. It has had a good run, but he likes the prospects going forward. Not cheap, but the predictability of earnings continues to make this a Hold. He thinks it can trade up at $125-$130.

food processing
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A massive conglomerate. To him, it sits in the sweet spot of what he is looking for. A solid consumer staple and great brand recognition. Pays a decent dividend. It has had a good run, but he likes the prospects going forward. Not cheap, but the predictability of earnings continues to make this a Hold. He thinks it can trade up at $125-$130.

food processing
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$114.210
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Empire Company (A)(EMP.A-T) 

February 9, 2017

Most of the chatter on this is the Sobey’s position. It’s an OK business, but when you look at its competitors, both Metro and Loblaw’s, it is sort of a 3rd tier. An extremely cheap stock. The grocery market is a tough one and he would put Holds on all these names. They are really going to rely on food inflation, and he is positive on that side, but the competition is going to be very, very intense.

food stores
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Most of the chatter on this is the Sobey’s position. It’s an OK business, but when you look at its competitors, both Metro and Loblaw’s, it is sort of a 3rd tier. An extremely cheap stock. The grocery market is a tough one and he would put Holds on all these names. They are really going to rely on food inflation, and he is positive on that side, but the competition is going to be very, very intense.

food stores
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$16.810
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD
Kinder Morgan Inc.(KMI-N) 

February 9, 2017

He would rate this a Hold, but it could go to a Buy. Generally, infrastructure pipeline plays are attractive businesses. They are less impacted by the commodity cycle. Trump is talking about putting in a tax policy that will allow for depreciation of assets in the 1st year. This would be an incredible offer. A lot of these firms will take that up and will expand quickly. Profitability and cash flow, etc. will really accelerate. He also has a really friendly market for energy with the new energy secretary who is going to try and reverse the whole EPA environmental issues.

pipelines
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He would rate this a Hold, but it could go to a Buy. Generally, infrastructure pipeline plays are attractive businesses. They are less impacted by the commodity cycle. Trump is talking about putting in a tax policy that will allow for depreciation of assets in the 1st year. This would be an incredible offer. A lot of these firms will take that up and will expand quickly. Profitability and cash flow, etc. will really accelerate. He also has a really friendly market for energy with the new energy secretary who is going to try and reverse the whole EPA environmental issues.

pipelines
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$22.380
Owned Owned
Unknown

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SELL
General Electric(GE-N) 

February 9, 2017

He is positive on the industrial space, but there are a lot better names you can own. Recommends you move from this and into the SPDR Industrial ETF (XLI-N) or something similar. This is a work in progress, but it is like moving a battleship.

electrical/electronic
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He is positive on the industrial space, but there are a lot better names you can own. Recommends you move from this and into the SPDR Industrial ETF (XLI-N) or something similar. This is a work in progress, but it is like moving a battleship.

electrical/electronic
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$29.590
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT

A security company. He is very positive on the fibre security market, but trying to pick names in this area without doing a lot of work is challenging. Earnings from a lot of these companies has been extremely variable. This is one of the names that you could own, because the firm is quite large and global in scope. You might also want to consider an ETF like PureFunds ISE Cyber Security (HACK-N), which would give you exposure to all the different names.

computer software/processing
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A security company. He is very positive on the fibre security market, but trying to pick names in this area without doing a lot of work is challenging. Earnings from a lot of these companies has been extremely variable. This is one of the names that you could own, because the firm is quite large and global in scope. You might also want to consider an ETF like PureFunds ISE Cyber Security (HACK-N), which would give you exposure to all the different names.

computer software/processing
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$100.450
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Shopify Inc.(SHOP-T) 

February 9, 2017

A name that a lot of people have been looking at or investing in. He likes this. The last big run was pretty much due to their relationship with Amazon (AMZN-Q). Wouldn’t be surprised if it was taken out at some point by Amazon. The stock is not cheap, but you have to look at the growth rate against the valuation. If the PEG is not much over 1.5-2, you should be okay.

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A name that a lot of people have been looking at or investing in. He likes this. The last big run was pretty much due to their relationship with Amazon (AMZN-Q). Wouldn’t be surprised if it was taken out at some point by Amazon. The stock is not cheap, but you have to look at the growth rate against the valuation. If the PEG is not much over 1.5-2, you should be okay.

0
0 0 0 0 0
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$71.690
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Agrium(AGU-T) 

February 9, 2017

In the midst of a merger with Potash (POT-T), so it is being whipped around a little by arbitragers, etc. It is probably pinned here for a little bit pending some sort of resolution on the transaction. He is bullish on agriculture generally, so this is a name you could own, but doesn’t think you will make a lot of money in the next 2-3 years.

chemicals
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In the midst of a merger with Potash (POT-T), so it is being whipped around a little by arbitragers, etc. It is probably pinned here for a little bit pending some sort of resolution on the transaction. He is bullish on agriculture generally, so this is a name you could own, but doesn’t think you will make a lot of money in the next 2-3 years.

chemicals
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$136.730
Owned Owned
Unknown

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TOP PICK
Lithium Americas Corp(LAC-T) 

February 9, 2017

Part owner of a brine called Cauchari in Argentina. A joint venture they have done with SQM, probably the best operator of lithium brines globally. They recently completed a financing, both equity and debt, and offtake arrangements with a Chinese and Thai company. It was quite speculative, but no longer thinks it is. Enterprise Value is around $460 million, but could be well north of $1 billion in 2-3 years. It should be in operation by 2019. (Analysts’ price target is $1.70.)

Mining
0 0 0 0 0
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Part owner of a brine called Cauchari in Argentina. A joint venture they have done with SQM, probably the best operator of lithium brines globally. They recently completed a financing, both equity and debt, and offtake arrangements with a Chinese and Thai company. It was quite speculative, but no longer thinks it is. Enterprise Value is around $460 million, but could be well north of $1 billion in 2-3 years. It should be in operation by 2019. (Analysts’ price target is $1.70.)

Mining
0 0 0 0 0
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$1.000
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK

*Short* This has been a great performing stock. It is at a 52-week high today, but thinks it has peaked out, both on the margins and the dairy portion. It has been one of the few restaurant chains that has been able to raise prices, but that is pretty much tapped out. Also, they are 90% impacted with the whole mall experience in a secular decline. He is not looking for a big hit on this, but something back into the $50s or high $40 level. Yield of 1.57%. (Analysts’ price target is $58.40.)

food services
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*Short* This has been a great performing stock. It is at a 52-week high today, but thinks it has peaked out, both on the margins and the dairy portion. It has been one of the few restaurant chains that has been able to raise prices, but that is pretty much tapped out. Also, they are 90% impacted with the whole mall experience in a secular decline. He is not looking for a big hit on this, but something back into the $50s or high $40 level. Yield of 1.57%. (Analysts’ price target is $58.40.)

food services
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$61.360
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Lockheed Martin(LMT-N) 

February 9, 2017

This is all about defence. Mr. Trump had the tweet on the F 35 that knocked about $15 off the stock, and this is a great chance to buy in. This is going to be a favourite of the new Defence Secretary Mattis. They have all the right programs, especially the missile programs. Expects announcements in the order of $40-$50 billion in new spending this March, which a lot will be on military readiness. Not a cheap stock, but a great secular story and you should be in this name for multiple years. Dividend yield of 2.82%. (Analysts’ price target is $281.32.)

Transportation
0 0 0 0 0
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This is all about defence. Mr. Trump had the tweet on the F 35 that knocked about $15 off the stock, and this is a great chance to buy in. This is going to be a favourite of the new Defence Secretary Mattis. They have all the right programs, especially the missile programs. Expects announcements in the order of $40-$50 billion in new spending this March, which a lot will be on military readiness. Not a cheap stock, but a great secular story and you should be in this name for multiple years. Dividend yield of 2.82%. (Analysts’ price target is $281.32.)

Transportation
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$258.200
Owned Owned
Yes

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N/A
General Market Comment 

October 3, 2016

Market. There are 4-5 things coming up this quarter which are going to be very important for people to watch in the market and respond to. For people who run macro type strategies, that focus on volatility, etc., is really about as good as it gets. Long-term equity oriented investors may have some challenges, given the volatility he expects to happen. This is very much an interconnected global world. Everybody is obviously focused on the US elections. He views it as a bit of a referendum on the Fed. Trump, if he got in, would be much more hawkish on trade and on the Fed, and thinks the market would sell off. In this environment, he is looking for revenue guidance from companies going forward for 2017. While there could be a lot of beats on the numbers, the reality is that the stock market is extremely expensive, especially on a GAP basis, but even on a non-GAP basis. We have the average median stock trading at 22X-23X, which is really, really up there. From a probability standpoint, making aggressive bets in Long equities is probably not the best idea.

0 0 0 0 0
0 comments

Market. There are 4-5 things coming up this quarter which are going to be very important for people to watch in the market and respond to. For people who run macro type strategies, that focus on volatility, etc., is really about as good as it gets. Long-term equity oriented investors may have some challenges, given the volatility he expects to happen. This is very much an interconnected global world. Everybody is obviously focused on the US elections. He views it as a bit of a referendum on the Fed. Trump, if he got in, would be much more hawkish on trade and on the Fed, and thinks the market would sell off. In this environment, he is looking for revenue guidance from companies going forward for 2017. While there could be a lot of beats on the numbers, the reality is that the stock market is extremely expensive, especially on a GAP basis, but even on a non-GAP basis. We have the average median stock trading at 22X-23X, which is really, really up there. From a probability standpoint, making aggressive bets in Long equities is probably not the best idea.

Unknown
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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PARTIAL BUY
Shopify Inc.(SHOP-T) 

October 3, 2016

The market has seen a massive move towards e-commerce, online shopping, etc. Generally, in the technology world, it is a winner takes all type of proposition. Companies that lead and that can make the investments, generally win. This is trading at a market cap of about $5.5 billion range, and will probably do something like $500 million of revenues next year. A terrific business model. It basically helps small and medium-sized businesses get online. At 10X next year’s sales, would you buy it? If you are a patient growth investor, you can nibble away at this kind of name. The growth rate is upwards of 50% for the next few years. They are the leader in this market.

0 0 0 0 0
0 comments

The market has seen a massive move towards e-commerce, online shopping, etc. Generally, in the technology world, it is a winner takes all type of proposition. Companies that lead and that can make the investments, generally win. This is trading at a market cap of about $5.5 billion range, and will probably do something like $500 million of revenues next year. A terrific business model. It basically helps small and medium-sized businesses get online. At 10X next year’s sales, would you buy it? If you are a patient growth investor, you can nibble away at this kind of name. The growth rate is upwards of 50% for the next few years. They are the leader in this market.

0
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$56.400
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Bank of America(BAC-N) 

October 3, 2016

Net interest margins have been collapsing as rates have fallen, and as a result, the earnings have just come in. They have other lines of business such as asset management, but they are extremely competitive areas. This has been trading cheaply for a long time now, a little bit above BV. He likes the name, but you are going to have to be very patient. Rates are going to have to go up and he thinks you will be rewarded. If you can put a 3-5 year time horizon on this investment, you will do well.

banks
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Net interest margins have been collapsing as rates have fallen, and as a result, the earnings have just come in. They have other lines of business such as asset management, but they are extremely competitive areas. This has been trading cheaply for a long time now, a little bit above BV. He likes the name, but you are going to have to be very patient. Rates are going to have to go up and he thinks you will be rewarded. If you can put a 3-5 year time horizon on this investment, you will do well.

banks
0 0 0 0 0
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$15.630
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD
Apple(AAPL-Q) 

October 3, 2016

He is in the camp that at best, it’s OK. A fair value and a hold right now. The iPhone 7 sales will be okay, but it is falling. It will show some economic sensitivity. They got a big boost from Samsung’s phone blowing up, but that is short lived.

electrical/electronic
0 0 0 0 0
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He is in the camp that at best, it’s OK. A fair value and a hold right now. The iPhone 7 sales will be okay, but it is falling. It will show some economic sensitivity. They got a big boost from Samsung’s phone blowing up, but that is short lived.

electrical/electronic
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$112.520
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Amazon.com(AMZN-Q) 

October 3, 2016

This fits into the technology category, but it has basically already killed everybody. The runway for revenue, both in retail, but more importantly in Cloud services business looks really, really strong. This is a franchise that seems to have moats all around it. People have been upping the valuation to very, very high levels. It would be on his list to sell very quickly in a market downdraft, just because the room for error is so narrow, and the expectations and the profits built into the stock are so high, that when we do get a correction, people like to sell their winners. Thinks that any of these “category killer” technology stocks over the next 5 years, are going to continue to do well.

specialty stores
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments

This fits into the technology category, but it has basically already killed everybody. The runway for revenue, both in retail, but more importantly in Cloud services business looks really, really strong. This is a franchise that seems to have moats all around it. People have been upping the valuation to very, very high levels. It would be on his list to sell very quickly in a market downdraft, just because the room for error is so narrow, and the expectations and the profits built into the stock are so high, that when we do get a correction, people like to sell their winners. Thinks that any of these “category killer” technology stocks over the next 5 years, are going to continue to do well.

specialty stores
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$836.740
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Qualcomm(QCOM-Q) 

October 3, 2016

Semiconductors. This area has probably been one of the hottest spaces in the Tech sector so far this year. However, this one has been a laggard, but are in the process of potentially bidding on NXP, which is focused more on the Internet of things. He thinks this is going to be fine. Their legacy business has been attached to the cell phone business, but now that they are expanding into other areas, this will be a much more interesting company.

Telecommunications
0 0 0 0 0
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Semiconductors. This area has probably been one of the hottest spaces in the Tech sector so far this year. However, this one has been a laggard, but are in the process of potentially bidding on NXP, which is focused more on the Internet of things. He thinks this is going to be fine. Their legacy business has been attached to the cell phone business, but now that they are expanding into other areas, this will be a much more interesting company.

Telecommunications
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$67.110
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT

Gold mining shares have done very well this year on the back of a 20%+ rise on the price of bullion. Recently they have checked back quite a bit, and this is an attractive entry point. One of the challenging things with the miners is that gold shares have become a big part of some peoples’ risk parity type strategies. When big money wants to make a shift in or out, they seem to distort prices quite dramatically, so he has cut back a little on his gold mining shares to try and figure out what is happening. (See Top Picks.)

E.T.F.'s
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments

Gold mining shares have done very well this year on the back of a 20%+ rise on the price of bullion. Recently they have checked back quite a bit, and this is an attractive entry point. One of the challenging things with the miners is that gold shares have become a big part of some peoples’ risk parity type strategies. When big money wants to make a shift in or out, they seem to distort prices quite dramatically, so he has cut back a little on his gold mining shares to try and figure out what is happening. (See Top Picks.)

E.T.F.'s
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$25.960
Owned Owned
Unknown

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N/A
General Market Comment 

October 3, 2016

Europe? On the equity side, in the last 6 months or so, it has been one of the better places to park money. That is due in part to Pres. Draghi of the ECB. He did a good move by focusing, not just on government debts for their QE program, but also corporate debts. He has had a meaningful impact on both lowering the cost of capital for European companies, but also in kick-starting the consumer lending business again. That is the good news. The bad news is that all of the things that have sort of plagued Europe, are still there and unlikely to go away. It is still sort of a “jump ball” in Europe. He is Short on markets like Italy and Spain in particular. On the next global slowdown, which he sees happening in 2017, those markets will have a tough time.

0 0 0 0 0
0 comments

Europe? On the equity side, in the last 6 months or so, it has been one of the better places to park money. That is due in part to Pres. Draghi of the ECB. He did a good move by focusing, not just on government debts for their QE program, but also corporate debts. He has had a meaningful impact on both lowering the cost of capital for European companies, but also in kick-starting the consumer lending business again. That is the good news. The bad news is that all of the things that have sort of plagued Europe, are still there and unlikely to go away. It is still sort of a “jump ball” in Europe. He is Short on markets like Italy and Spain in particular. On the next global slowdown, which he sees happening in 2017, those markets will have a tough time.

Unknown
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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PAST TOP PICK
Albemarle Corp(ALB-N) 

October 3, 2016

(A Top Pick June 28/16. Up 8.70%.) A company that is transitioning from almost a specialty chemical type of area into lithium. Lithium has been one of the hot sectors in the mining world, and there have been countless numbers of lithium companies showing up on the TSX, but this is the largest and the best positioned. Since he recommended this, they have bought a processing plant to convert the lithium carbonate into its commercial form in China.

Mining
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(A Top Pick June 28/16. Up 8.70%.) A company that is transitioning from almost a specialty chemical type of area into lithium. Lithium has been one of the hot sectors in the mining world, and there have been countless numbers of lithium companies showing up on the TSX, but this is the largest and the best positioned. Since he recommended this, they have bought a processing plant to convert the lithium carbonate into its commercial form in China.

Mining
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$84.830
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 28/16. Down 14.98%.) This was to introduce grains or agricultural commodities into a portfolio, a bet on soybean prices continuing to going up. He cut his position in half. Food stuffs are starting to look very underpriced, especially against financial assets.

E.T.F.'s
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(A Top Pick June 28/16. Down 14.98%.) This was to introduce grains or agricultural commodities into a portfolio, a bet on soybean prices continuing to going up. He cut his position in half. Food stuffs are starting to look very underpriced, especially against financial assets.

E.T.F.'s
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0 comments
Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$28.330
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 28/16. Up 1.11%.) He wants to own Treasury Inflation Protected Security, mostly because at some point inflation is going to have to come up. Every banker in the world is working on this problem. Maybe at some point they will get it right.

E.T.F.'s
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(A Top Pick June 28/16. Up 1.11%.) He wants to own Treasury Inflation Protected Security, mostly because at some point inflation is going to have to come up. Every banker in the world is working on this problem. Maybe at some point they will get it right.

E.T.F.'s
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$116.380
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Starbucks(SBUX-Q) 

October 3, 2016

A classic growth stock that has had some hiccups. He would not be a buyer here. One of those consumer discretionary names where people have hypothesized that they wouldn’t be spending $5, but would go someplace else for a lesser price. If you can get this in the mid-$40 you’ll be doing yourself a great deal.

food services
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A classic growth stock that has had some hiccups. He would not be a buyer here. One of those consumer discretionary names where people have hypothesized that they wouldn’t be spending $5, but would go someplace else for a lesser price. If you can get this in the mid-$40 you’ll be doing yourself a great deal.

food services
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$53.840
Owned Owned
No

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WAIT
Nike Inc(NKE-N) 

October 3, 2016

Just reported a decent quarter, but was a little light on their guidance, both on the International side and the US domestic side. A very competitive market now. This will remain one of the bellwether names in the market, but there are a lot of upstarts. You need to see the multiple come in a little, and he suspects this to happen over the next couple of quarters.

misc consumer products
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Just reported a decent quarter, but was a little light on their guidance, both on the International side and the US domestic side. A very competitive market now. This will remain one of the bellwether names in the market, but there are a lot of upstarts. You need to see the multiple come in a little, and he suspects this to happen over the next couple of quarters.

misc consumer products
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$52.670
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY

Likes this name, for a whole lot of reasons, but strategically he just wants to be invested at the top of the chain. There are a lot of moving parts. The company has done tremendous things with their portfolio.

management/diversified
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Likes this name, for a whole lot of reasons, but strategically he just wants to be invested at the top of the chain. There are a lot of moving parts. The company has done tremendous things with their portfolio.

management/diversified
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$46.400
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Twitter, Inc(TWTR-N) 

October 3, 2016

The company appears to have put itself up for sale, and bankers are getting busy. Thinks it will probably go for $25 billion, not a huge upside from these levels here.

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The company appears to have put itself up for sale, and bankers are getting busy. Thinks it will probably go for $25 billion, not a huge upside from these levels here.

0
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$24.000
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT

Europe has had some good growth already. The CAD hedging on this is helpful, especially if it’s in retirement accounts where your liabilities in the future are going to be in Cdn$. In general, this is going to be a basket of blue-chip European dividend players. If you saw some of the European valuations get a little bit closer to the US by 10%-20%, he would probably take it off.

E.T.F.'s
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Europe has had some good growth already. The CAD hedging on this is helpful, especially if it’s in retirement accounts where your liabilities in the future are going to be in Cdn$. In general, this is going to be a basket of blue-chip European dividend players. If you saw some of the European valuations get a little bit closer to the US by 10%-20%, he would probably take it off.

E.T.F.'s
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$19.930
Owned Owned
Unknown

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TOP PICK
Albemarle Corp(ALB-N) 

October 3, 2016

This is his long-term story. Lithium and the electrification of everything has real staying power. They sold a good chunk of their specialty chemical side off a couple of quarters or so. Expects them to continue to invest primarily in lithium brines, but also processing. Dividend yield of 1.44%.

Mining
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This is his long-term story. Lithium and the electrification of everything has real staying power. They sold a good chunk of their specialty chemical side off a couple of quarters or so. Expects them to continue to invest primarily in lithium brines, but also processing. Dividend yield of 1.44%.

Mining
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$84.830
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
SPDR Gold ETF(GLD-N) 

October 3, 2016

Gold had a pullback from $1350, and there was quite a bit of frothiness in the commodity itself in terms of the open interest. It is still quite elevated, but going into this quarter and the foreseeable future, this is something he just feels he has to own. He would typically trade gold through options. Feels this has to be a core in everybody’s portfolio.

investment companies/funds
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Gold had a pullback from $1350, and there was quite a bit of frothiness in the commodity itself in terms of the open interest. It is still quite elevated, but going into this quarter and the foreseeable future, this is something he just feels he has to own. He would typically trade gold through options. Feels this has to be a core in everybody’s portfolio.

investment companies/funds
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$125.320
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Foot Locker(FL-N) 

October 3, 2016

*SHORT* The challenge is that their biggest customer is Nike (NKE-N), about 70% of their business. Nike is making a very strong push direct to the consumer, a lot of it through the e-commerce program. Footlocker has got their #1 customer reducing their emphasis on mall and store sales. Their competitive response is that they’ll either have to find other suppliers, which costs money, or develop their own the e-commerce business. For them to make the necessary investments in either case, their cost of sales is far too low. This Short is for the next 2-3 years. Dividend yield of 1.63%.

clothing stores
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*SHORT* The challenge is that their biggest customer is Nike (NKE-N), about 70% of their business. Nike is making a very strong push direct to the consumer, a lot of it through the e-commerce program. Footlocker has got their #1 customer reducing their emphasis on mall and store sales. Their competitive response is that they’ll either have to find other suppliers, which costs money, or develop their own the e-commerce business. For them to make the necessary investments in either case, their cost of sales is far too low. This Short is for the next 2-3 years. Dividend yield of 1.63%.

clothing stores
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$67.520
Owned Owned
Yes

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N/A
General Market Comment 

June 28, 2016

Markets. Today’s rally shouldn’t have been too much of a surprise, as you always get a snap back after a big plunge in the market. This is a normal market action. He will probably use this as a chance to Sell more. Views BREXIT as a continuation of what has been going on for quite some time. It is really a function of big secular changes going on in the global economy, which manifest themselves in these sorts of situations. We are going to be in a sort of disinflation, deflationary type environment for quite some time. It sets up some really interesting opportunities for investors, but just outright Long equities are probably not the optimal solution. There are 7 or 8 really big things that have manifested themselves in today’s vernacular of lower for longer in terms of both rates and global growth going lower. We have a lot of debt, and this debt needs to get addressed. You can either write it off, monetize it or mark it down.

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Markets. Today’s rally shouldn’t have been too much of a surprise, as you always get a snap back after a big plunge in the market. This is a normal market action. He will probably use this as a chance to Sell more. Views BREXIT as a continuation of what has been going on for quite some time. It is really a function of big secular changes going on in the global economy, which manifest themselves in these sorts of situations. We are going to be in a sort of disinflation, deflationary type environment for quite some time. It sets up some really interesting opportunities for investors, but just outright Long equities are probably not the optimal solution. There are 7 or 8 really big things that have manifested themselves in today’s vernacular of lower for longer in terms of both rates and global growth going lower. We have a lot of debt, and this debt needs to get addressed. You can either write it off, monetize it or mark it down.

Unknown
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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COMMENT

Financials do not rate high on a Buy list in these markets. Has pretty much been Short financials since starting his fund 18 months ago. Insurance companies in particular are in a tough bind. With these low rates, putting premiums to work and earning a decent return without a lot of risk, is very tough. This doesn’t have much European business. Asian and wealth management businesses have been great, but offsetting those 2, they have had some issues with energy debt. The good thing is that it is really cheap. If you take an 18-36 month view, you can be okay.

insurance
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Financials do not rate high on a Buy list in these markets. Has pretty much been Short financials since starting his fund 18 months ago. Insurance companies in particular are in a tough bind. With these low rates, putting premiums to work and earning a decent return without a lot of risk, is very tough. This doesn’t have much European business. Asian and wealth management businesses have been great, but offsetting those 2, they have had some issues with energy debt. The good thing is that it is really cheap. If you take an 18-36 month view, you can be okay.

insurance
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$16.970
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY

His favourite name in the copper space, but has been one of the poorest performers year to date because it is such a good company. They don’t have a lot of debt. Thinks a lot of investors are nervous about buying a company that wants to buy somebody else. He would have this is a Long, offset was some Shorts on companies he is not favourable on.

metal mines
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His favourite name in the copper space, but has been one of the poorest performers year to date because it is such a good company. They don’t have a lot of debt. Thinks a lot of investors are nervous about buying a company that wants to buy somebody else. He would have this is a Long, offset was some Shorts on companies he is not favourable on.

metal mines
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$4.190
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Apple(AAPL-Q) 

June 28, 2016

Has this as a Short. Their products are fabulous, but the bottom line is that the iPhone is everything to them, and it is in decline. Trading roughly at around 10X. Expects the stock to fall 10%-15% from here.

electrical/electronic
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Has this as a Short. Their products are fabulous, but the bottom line is that the iPhone is everything to them, and it is in decline. Trading roughly at around 10X. Expects the stock to fall 10%-15% from here.

electrical/electronic
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$93.590
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT

Fabulous management and great market share. Their purchase of Shoppers was fabulous. It is a bit expensive. There is some talk that they are going to spin out the gas station part. It is hard to see it going up a lot from here, however he doesn’t see it going down a lot either.

food stores
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Fabulous management and great market share. Their purchase of Shoppers was fabulous. It is a bit expensive. There is some talk that they are going to spin out the gas station part. It is hard to see it going up a lot from here, however he doesn’t see it going down a lot either.

food stores
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$68.650
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT

(RESP 15-20 year minimum?) European equities hedged to the Cdn$. Pretty much everything in Europe and the UK, but without financials. He would advocate a broader global strategy and without the Cdn$ hedge. This is a perfect time, because you can average in through all the nonsense that is going on.

E.T.F.'s
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(RESP 15-20 year minimum?) European equities hedged to the Cdn$. Pretty much everything in Europe and the UK, but without financials. He would advocate a broader global strategy and without the Cdn$ hedge. This is a perfect time, because you can average in through all the nonsense that is going on.

E.T.F.'s
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$17.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY

Presumes this is a floating rate type senior loan fund and is marketed principally on the idea that you are going to be protected. As rates go up your income will go up. There are always small problems with these loan portfolios. They are typically offered as leveraged companies, and he has found that it is all good, and then one day it is not good.

E.T.F.'s
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Presumes this is a floating rate type senior loan fund and is marketed principally on the idea that you are going to be protected. As rates go up your income will go up. There are always small problems with these loan portfolios. They are typically offered as leveraged companies, and he has found that it is all good, and then one day it is not good.

E.T.F.'s
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$18.850
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Wells Fargo(WFC-N) 

June 28, 2016

If you are going to buy one US bank, this would be it. The loan quality, credit quality and management are superb. However, it is one of the more expensive large cap banks in the US. It depends on your time horizon. Eventually rates will go up. Dollar cost into the name over the next year.

investment companies/funds
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If you are going to buy one US bank, this would be it. The loan quality, credit quality and management are superb. However, it is one of the more expensive large cap banks in the US. It depends on your time horizon. Eventually rates will go up. Dollar cost into the name over the next year.

investment companies/funds
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$46.100
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Cisco(CSCO-Q) 

June 28, 2016

This is a terrific company. Have made some really clever acquisitions in the last few years. Feels the dividend is quite safe.

electrical/electronic
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This is a terrific company. Have made some really clever acquisitions in the last few years. Feels the dividend is quite safe.

electrical/electronic
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$27.790
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Visa Inc.(V-N) 

June 28, 2016

A great company and pretty much a staple in every portfolio managers holding. Visa Europe is very interesting and they are obviously taking in the rest of that. He has a series of shorts against this, such as Capital One, Discover and Allied Financial.

other services
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A great company and pretty much a staple in every portfolio managers holding. Visa Europe is very interesting and they are obviously taking in the rest of that. He has a series of shorts against this, such as Capital One, Discover and Allied Financial.

other services
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$75.160
Owned Owned
Yes

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HOLD
Pfizer Inc(PFE-N) 

June 28, 2016

A super, high quality stock that people have owned for decades and decades. A constant dividend grower. Has always had a great pipeline of drugs. Doesn’t believe the entire drug industry is either a Long or a Short. Wait to see who is elected in the US, because that will have a very big impact on sentiment.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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A super, high quality stock that people have owned for decades and decades. A constant dividend grower. Has always had a great pipeline of drugs. Doesn’t believe the entire drug industry is either a Long or a Short. Wait to see who is elected in the US, because that will have a very big impact on sentiment.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$34.440
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY on WEAKNESS

Tower businesses have been reclassified as REITs, and they are terrific businesses. Cell phones aren’t going away, and with all the changes going on and what you can put through the lines, these towers are going to continue to be valuable properties. Any pullback would be a great time to get in.

communications/media
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Tower businesses have been reclassified as REITs, and they are terrific businesses. Cell phones aren’t going away, and with all the changes going on and what you can put through the lines, these towers are going to continue to be valuable properties. Any pullback would be a great time to get in.

communications/media
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$103.540
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT

Nice dividend and great management team. They were buying a lot of residential real estate property in the US when nobody else wanted it. Feels their block of properties is worth a lot of money. At some point there will be further consolidation in the space, and at some point they could be an acquisition.

REAL ESTATE
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Nice dividend and great management team. They were buying a lot of residential real estate property in the US when nobody else wanted it. Feels their block of properties is worth a lot of money. At some point there will be further consolidation in the space, and at some point they could be an acquisition.

REAL ESTATE
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$8.430
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Magna Int'l. (A)(MG-T) 

June 28, 2016

The rule of cyclicals is that you sell them when PEs are low and buy them when PEs are high. The PE on this is dirt low right now. Over the long-term you are going to be fine, but in the short run this is still dead money.

Automotive
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The rule of cyclicals is that you sell them when PEs are low and buy them when PEs are high. The PE on this is dirt low right now. Over the long-term you are going to be fine, but in the short run this is still dead money.

Automotive
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$43.990
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Linamar Corp(LNR-T) 

June 28, 2016

The rule of cyclicals is that you sell them when PEs are low and buy them when PEs are high. The PE on this is dirt low right now. Over the long-term you are going to be fine, but in the short run this is still dead money.

transportation equip & components
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0 comments

The rule of cyclicals is that you sell them when PEs are low and buy them when PEs are high. The PE on this is dirt low right now. Over the long-term you are going to be fine, but in the short run this is still dead money.

transportation equip & components
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$43.880
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
WSP Global Inc.(WSP-T) 

June 28, 2016

In the very short run, this is not the best time to buy this. A pure play engineering company, growth by acquisition. Terrific management. Believes it has about 10%-20% exposure to the UK. If things play out on a macro standpoint the way he thinks they will, at some point infrastructure spend starts to kick in, and this would be one of the beneficiaries.

Business Services
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In the very short run, this is not the best time to buy this. A pure play engineering company, growth by acquisition. Terrific management. Believes it has about 10%-20% exposure to the UK. If things play out on a macro standpoint the way he thinks they will, at some point infrastructure spend starts to kick in, and this would be one of the beneficiaries.

Business Services
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$38.010
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Starbucks(SBUX-Q) 

June 28, 2016

Some of the more growthier type names have been sold down. This one has a tremendous loyalty program. Has done quite well in China. It is one you can buy and tuck away for ever.

food services
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0 comments

Some of the more growthier type names have been sold down. This one has a tremendous loyalty program. Has done quite well in China. It is one you can buy and tuck away for ever.

food services
0 0 0 0 0
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$54.850
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Walt Disney(DIS-N) 

June 28, 2016

Leaning a little towards the bearish camp on this, but wouldn’t be Short, but only because he thinks we are at peak sports in regards to money that is being paid. However, besides ESPN, this company has some other terrific businesses. People are not ascribing a very high multiple to their movie business, because every now and then you don’t have a hit. This is a Buy in the low $90s.

entertainment services
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Leaning a little towards the bearish camp on this, but wouldn’t be Short, but only because he thinks we are at peak sports in regards to money that is being paid. However, besides ESPN, this company has some other terrific businesses. People are not ascribing a very high multiple to their movie business, because every now and then you don’t have a hit. This is a Buy in the low $90s.

entertainment services
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$96.050
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
General Electric(GE-N) 

June 28, 2016

Probably one of his favourite companies in terms of safety. He would buy this for the long-term. They have jettisoned their financial services business, which is virtually all complete now. It is now wired up and ready to go. If we do get a recession in the US, this will be at acquisitive company again.

electrical/electronic
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0 comments

Probably one of his favourite companies in terms of safety. He would buy this for the long-term. They have jettisoned their financial services business, which is virtually all complete now. It is now wired up and ready to go. If we do get a recession in the US, this will be at acquisitive company again.

electrical/electronic
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$29.940
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Nike Inc(NKE-N) 

June 28, 2016

Just reported and were disappointing on their revenue and future order front. Thinks the shoe business has peaked out.

misc consumer products
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments

Just reported and were disappointing on their revenue and future order front. Thinks the shoe business has peaked out.

misc consumer products
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$53.090
Owned Owned
Unknown

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SHORT
Foot Locker(FL-N) 

June 28, 2016

This is 75% Nike distribution, but Nike has an online platform now where you can order customized running shoes online. This is a terrific Short here, and thinks it is going substantially lower.

clothing stores
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0 comments

This is 75% Nike distribution, but Nike has an online platform now where you can order customized running shoes online. This is a terrific Short here, and thinks it is going substantially lower.

clothing stores
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$52.180
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT

Right now he is very lightly positioned in energy. It has had a big move and he has seen a lot of energy stocks back up. A good company and management is fine. Doesn’t think you are going to get hurt on this except just through the general commodity malaise.

Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments

Right now he is very lightly positioned in energy. It has had a big move and he has seen a lot of energy stocks back up. A good company and management is fine. Doesn’t think you are going to get hurt on this except just through the general commodity malaise.

Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$9.930
Owned Owned
Unknown

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TOP PICK
Albemarle Corp(ALB-N) 

June 28, 2016

The biggest in the lithium space. He is not super excited about base metals, but is very positive on precious metals. Last quarter their earnings exploded to the upside. They want to be the dominant player in lithium. Just sold their chemicals business. Expects they will make some more acquisitions. The thesis of this selection is electric cars.

Mining
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The biggest in the lithium space. He is not super excited about base metals, but is very positive on precious metals. Last quarter their earnings exploded to the upside. They want to be the dominant player in lithium. Just sold their chemicals business. Expects they will make some more acquisitions. The thesis of this selection is electric cars.

Mining
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$78.290
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Yes

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TOP PICK

These are inflation protected securities. Thinks that CPI is going to continue to bump up. Expects the core PCE (?) in the US to be fully through 2% this year. A safer bet with less capital risk.

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These are inflation protected securities. Thinks that CPI is going to continue to bump up. Expects the core PCE (?) in the US to be fully through 2% this year. A safer bet with less capital risk.

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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$116.520
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Yes

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These type of investments are very good diversifiers. This is composed of 3 different agricultural commodities, wheat, corn and soybeans. Soybeans has been the big driver, principally because there is a shortage in Brazil. Wheat is kind of finished, but corn is kind of interesting because we have this kind of El Niño affect coming down the pipe now, creating super hot and super dry in the US. Wouldn’t make it a big position in your portfolio.

E.T.F.'s
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These type of investments are very good diversifiers. This is composed of 3 different agricultural commodities, wheat, corn and soybeans. Soybeans has been the big driver, principally because there is a shortage in Brazil. Wheat is kind of finished, but corn is kind of interesting because we have this kind of El Niño affect coming down the pipe now, creating super hot and super dry in the US. Wouldn’t make it a big position in your portfolio.

E.T.F.'s
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Jim McGovern

CEO, Arrow Capital Manage...

Price Price
$33.320
Owned Owned
Yes

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