Opinions by Cameron Hurst | StockChase
406
Cameron Hurst

Chief Investment Officer

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Aug 2015

Equium Capital Management

406
Cameron Hurst

Chief Investment Officer

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Aug 2015

Equium Capital Management


Opinions by Cameron Hurst


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General Market Comment 

January 11, 2018

Market.  US Bond yields of 30 year bonds are down over the last 30 years but you can see a double bottom and they have broken the trend to the upside.  We had a great melt up since the beginning of December.  We are out of the disinflationary camp.  There is synchronized global growth.  We are moving almost to inflation.  A stock breaking though its trend line like this would be bullish.  In 2013 the TLT ETF lost 20% in 4 months and it holds government bonds.  You have to be tactical in fixed income this year.  The strategy makes sense.

Market.  US Bond yields of 30 year bonds are down over the last 30 years but you can see a double bottom and they have broken the trend to the upside.  We had a great melt up since the beginning of December.  We are out of the disinflationary camp.  There is synchronized global growth.  We are moving almost to inflation.  A stock breaking though its trend line like this would be bullish.  In 2013 the TLT ETF lost 20% in 4 months and it holds government bonds.  You have to be tactical in fixed income this year.  The strategy makes sense.

Unknown
Cameron Hurst

Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Manag...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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BUY
ConocoPhillips(COP-N) 

January 11, 2018

COP-N vs. CVX-N.  He prefers COP-N.  It has underperformed.  It is more in the E&P space and did some divestitures recently.  They are in a great spot.  There is nothing wrong with CVX-N but it will underperform.

integrated oils

COP-N vs. CVX-N.  He prefers COP-N.  It has underperformed.  It is more in the E&P space and did some divestitures recently.  They are in a great spot.  There is nothing wrong with CVX-N but it will underperform.

integrated oils
Cameron Hurst

Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Manag...

PricePrice
$59.180
Owned Owned
Unknown

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SELL
Capital Senior Living(CSU-N) 

January 11, 2018

Seniors sucked a lot of people into the sector for a long time because it was a low wage sector.  It seemed to all line up well but in actual fact you don’t actually want to move in there.  For the last 8 years the interest rates supported them but now you have the theme not having played out and this one is small and has no yield.  It will trade with the space, yield or not.  Get into materials or energy.  He does not think it will come back.

property mngmnt/investment

Seniors sucked a lot of people into the sector for a long time because it was a low wage sector.  It seemed to all line up well but in actual fact you don’t actually want to move in there.  For the last 8 years the interest rates supported them but now you have the theme not having played out and this one is small and has no yield.  It will trade with the space, yield or not.  Get into materials or energy.  He does not think it will come back.

property mngmnt/investment
Cameron Hurst

Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Manag...

PricePrice
$12.320
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Chevron Texaco(CVX-N) 

January 11, 2018

COP-N vs. CVX-N.  He prefers COP-N.  It has underperformed.  It is more in the E&P space and did some divestitures recently.  They are in a great spot.  There is nothing wrong with CVX-N but it will underperform.

integrated oils

COP-N vs. CVX-N.  He prefers COP-N.  It has underperformed.  It is more in the E&P space and did some divestitures recently.  They are in a great spot.  There is nothing wrong with CVX-N but it will underperform.

integrated oils
Cameron Hurst

Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Manag...

PricePrice
$132.570
Owned Owned
Unknown

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TOP PICK
DowDuPont Inc.(DWDP-N) 

January 11, 2018

A big beneficiary of shale gas.  They upscale into the markets and have higher margins.  You have significant cost saves.  They will eventually split them into two efficient companies about 2020.  (Analysts’ target: $82.00).

chemicals

A big beneficiary of shale gas.  They upscale into the markets and have higher margins.  You have significant cost saves.  They will eventually split them into two efficient companies about 2020.  (Analysts’ target: $82.00).

chemicals
Cameron Hurst

Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Manag...

PricePrice
$75.220
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jul 7/17, Up 37%)  He is going to roll this to Top Picks again.  New management came in and they took a lot of mortgage risk.  They wound that down so it is a non-issue now.  That was the prohibitive factor for a take-out.  They are now very cash generative and are buying back shares.

investment companies/funds

(A Top Pick Jul 7/17, Up 37%)  He is going to roll this to Top Picks again.  New management came in and they took a lot of mortgage risk.  They wound that down so it is a non-issue now.  That was the prohibitive factor for a take-out.  They are now very cash generative and are buying back shares.

investment companies/funds
Cameron Hurst

Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Manag...

PricePrice
$52.960
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK

A 25 basis point hike raises revenue $60 Million for the year.  Every little incremental hike makes a big difference.  It is 10% accretive to earnings.  (Analysts’ target: $58.00).

investment companies/funds

A 25 basis point hike raises revenue $60 Million for the year.  Every little incremental hike makes a big difference.  It is 10% accretive to earnings.  (Analysts’ target: $58.00).

investment companies/funds
Cameron Hurst

Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Manag...

PricePrice
$52.960
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
PAST TOP PICK
FedEx(FDX-N) 

January 11, 2018

(A Top Pick Jul 7/17, Up 24%)  Consumer spending growth has been an absolute hero.  The company is being operated well.  Management is following through so you should stick with this.  He likes logistics.

Transportation

(A Top Pick Jul 7/17, Up 24%)  Consumer spending growth has been an absolute hero.  The company is being operated well.  Management is following through so you should stick with this.  He likes logistics.

Transportation
Cameron Hurst

Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Manag...

PricePrice
$271.190
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Gilead Sciences Inc.(GILD-Q) 

January 11, 2018

They had a great pop.  He stepped out of Biotech and healthcare as a sector went to a neutral.  He is more cautious on this as the entry gets higher.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical

They had a great pop.  He stepped out of Biotech and healthcare as a sector went to a neutral.  He is more cautious on this as the entry gets higher.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
Cameron Hurst

Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Manag...

PricePrice
$79.060
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jul 7/17, Up 10%)  He likes it from a timing perspective but there are other opportunities out there.  There is lots of tailwind, however. 

E.T.F.'s

(A Top Pick Jul 7/17, Up 10%)  He likes it from a timing perspective but there are other opportunities out there.  There is lots of tailwind, however. 

E.T.F.'s
Cameron Hurst

Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Manag...

PricePrice
$183.310
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Kelly Services Inc.(KELYA-Q) 

January 11, 2018

The US labour market is very tight.  Any number of measures suggest this.  You are seeing this work through into modest wage appreciation very slowly.  With synchronized global growth compounded with reduced cap-x and fixed asset investment, he sees very high profit margins and a move away from labour and into technology investment.  This is all good for this company.  People watch it with regards to tightness of the labour market.  He thinks investing in the labour market is appropriate.

The US labour market is very tight.  Any number of measures suggest this.  You are seeing this work through into modest wage appreciation very slowly.  With synchronized global growth compounded with reduced cap-x and fixed asset investment, he sees very high profit margins and a move away from labour and into technology investment.  This is all good for this company.  People watch it with regards to tightness of the labour market.  He thinks investing in the labour market is appropriate.

0
Cameron Hurst

Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Manag...

PricePrice
$28.430
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Kinder Morgan Inc.(KMI-N) 

January 11, 2018

He went more positive back in the fall on energy.  He is comfortable being out of Canada in energy.  This is a good time to build a position in energy but this is not where you get the bang.  Your opportunity cost will be significant.  He likes XLE-N, the ETF.  Or XOP-N is more E & P.

pipelines

He went more positive back in the fall on energy.  He is comfortable being out of Canada in energy.  This is a good time to build a position in energy but this is not where you get the bang.  Your opportunity cost will be significant.  He likes XLE-N, the ETF.  Or XOP-N is more E & P.

pipelines
Cameron Hurst

Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Manag...

PricePrice
$19.200
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
BUY
McDonalds(MCD-N) 

January 11, 2018

He likes it a lot.  He is cautious on the space and is underweight right now.  Restaurants and especially this one have been stellar.  They have really turned around and are a hero. 

food services

He likes it a lot.  He is cautious on the space and is underweight right now.  Restaurants and especially this one have been stellar.  They have really turned around and are a hero. 

food services
Cameron Hurst

Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Manag...

PricePrice
$173.390
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
HOLD
Medtronic Inc(MDT-N) 

January 11, 2018

Medical devices.  A good global name.  He has been bullish on medical devices for quite some time.  He has shifted that down recently because it was getting close to his break points.  Earnings were ratcheted down because of hurricane noise because of Puerto Rican noise.  IHI-N is the US ETF he would use to take positions in this sector.  You want to get through this next quarter.  You have good metrics.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical

Medical devices.  A good global name.  He has been bullish on medical devices for quite some time.  He has shifted that down recently because it was getting close to his break points.  Earnings were ratcheted down because of hurricane noise because of Puerto Rican noise.  IHI-N is the US ETF he would use to take positions in this sector.  You want to get through this next quarter.  You have good metrics.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
Cameron Hurst

Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Manag...

PricePrice
$85.730
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
DON'T BUY
PayPal Holdings Inc.(PYPL-Q) 

January 11, 2018

He is neutral to positive on the name.  You could look at a V-N or MA-N, which are better valued.  It has really appealing moats.  Valuation takes his view lower.  He is picky in this area.  Tech as a sector is a neutral. 

He is neutral to positive on the name.  You could look at a V-N or MA-N, which are better valued.  It has really appealing moats.  Valuation takes his view lower.  He is picky in this area.  Tech as a sector is a neutral. 

0
Cameron Hurst

Chief Investment Officer, Equium Capital Manag...

PricePrice
$79.750
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
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