Opinions by Jason Mann | StockChase
365
Jason Mann

CIO & Co-Founder

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE May 2015

Edgehill Patners

365
Jason Mann

CIO & Co-Founder

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE May 2015

Edgehill Patners


Opinions by Jason Mann


Signal Opinion Expert Chart
N/A
General Market Comment 

January 18, 2018

Market.  The Trump trade lives on.  It was the hoped for tax changes and deregulation that didn’t happen in 2017.  Small caps, industrials, materials have benefited since September.  He thinks we are entering the euphoria stage.  There are opportunities but it is hard to argue the market is not expensive.  Cannabis and Crypto sectors are indicative of the bubble Euphoria condition.  Cannabis stocks have run ahead of themselves.  The combined market cap compared to forward earnings result in huge multiples.  There will be winners almost certainly – but only a handful.  We don’t know how this will play out.  He has been short energy for two years.  Price momentum has been terrible for some time.  But it is looking better from a price momentum point of view.  This would be the best relative sector right now.

Market.  The Trump trade lives on.  It was the hoped for tax changes and deregulation that didn’t happen in 2017.  Small caps, industrials, materials have benefited since September.  He thinks we are entering the euphoria stage.  There are opportunities but it is hard to argue the market is not expensive.  Cannabis and Crypto sectors are indicative of the bubble Euphoria condition.  Cannabis stocks have run ahead of themselves.  The combined market cap compared to forward earnings result in huge multiples.  There will be winners almost certainly – but only a handful.  We don’t know how this will play out.  He has been short energy for two years.  Price momentum has been terrible for some time.  But it is looking better from a price momentum point of view.  This would be the best relative sector right now.

Unknown
Jason Mann

CIO & Co-Founder, Edgehill Patners...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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DON'T BUY
General Market Comment 

January 18, 2018

Chinese BAT stocks.  They are caught up in a euphoric trade upswing and have over exceeded their valuation metrics.  When they start to miss on earnings on the turn of a cycle, say in a year or so, you could really see a move down in these stocks.

Chinese BAT stocks.  They are caught up in a euphoric trade upswing and have over exceeded their valuation metrics.  When they start to miss on earnings on the turn of a cycle, say in a year or so, you could really see a move down in these stocks.

Unknown
Jason Mann

CIO & Co-Founder, Edgehill Patners...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
DON'T BUY
Alamos Gold Inc(AGI-T) 

January 18, 2018

He does not buy or short gold stocks.  From a momentum perspective, it fails poorly.  With a trend down it will tend to get more selling until it reaches a floor, which it has not.  There is not much cash flow and a small yield.  It is a volatile stock.

precious metals

He does not buy or short gold stocks.  From a momentum perspective, it fails poorly.  With a trend down it will tend to get more selling until it reaches a floor, which it has not.  There is not much cash flow and a small yield.  It is a volatile stock.

precious metals
Jason Mann

CIO & Co-Founder, Edgehill Patners...

PricePrice
$7.520
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Activision Blizzard(ATVI-Q) 

January 18, 2018

It has gotten ahead of itself on valuation.  It’s too expensive at this level. 

computer software/processing

It has gotten ahead of itself on valuation.  It’s too expensive at this level. 

computer software/processing
Jason Mann

CIO & Co-Founder, Edgehill Patners...

PricePrice
$69.800
Owned Owned
Unknown

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WEAK BUY
BlackBerry(BB-T) 

January 18, 2018

He was short this a year ago, then they had an earnings beat and he got shaken out of his short.  Now he is long.  There has not been a consistent trend.  It is a business that is transforming into a software and security business.

electrical/electronic

He was short this a year ago, then they had an earnings beat and he got shaken out of his short.  Now he is long.  There has not been a consistent trend.  It is a business that is transforming into a software and security business.

electrical/electronic
Jason Mann

CIO & Co-Founder, Edgehill Patners...

PricePrice
$16.510
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
BCE Inc.(BCE-T) 

January 18, 2018

It has caught up with the other telcos.  It rolled over just as the Trump trade started up again.  It is one of the most stable stocks in the index.  The valuation is reasonable.  You have 5% yield, PE of 17 and very high return on equity.  He holds a small position.  They can maintain their dividend in a rising interest rate environment.

telephone utilities

It has caught up with the other telcos.  It rolled over just as the Trump trade started up again.  It is one of the most stable stocks in the index.  The valuation is reasonable.  You have 5% yield, PE of 17 and very high return on equity.  He holds a small position.  They can maintain their dividend in a rising interest rate environment.

telephone utilities
Jason Mann

CIO & Co-Founder, Edgehill Patners...

PricePrice
$57.800
Owned Owned
Yes

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SELL
Cascades Inc(CAS-T) 

January 18, 2018

He has a small short position.  It is not a high conviction short, but does not have a strong price momentum.

east coast forestry

He has a small short position.  It is not a high conviction short, but does not have a strong price momentum.

east coast forestry
Jason Mann

CIO & Co-Founder, Edgehill Patners...

PricePrice
$13.900
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
WATCH
Cineplex Inc(CGX-T) 

January 18, 2018

He is not convinced that online streaming is why it is down.  It is more likely that there is fear of a dividend cut coming.  Hold off until after any cut happens.  Their cinema business is under pressure.  It was always viewed as a steady dividend payer but it is over 100% payout ratio now.  They have a slowing growth business and will have to cut the dividend.  If you saw a dividend cut that would probably be the day to buy it.

other services

He is not convinced that online streaming is why it is down.  It is more likely that there is fear of a dividend cut coming.  Hold off until after any cut happens.  Their cinema business is under pressure.  It was always viewed as a steady dividend payer but it is over 100% payout ratio now.  They have a slowing growth business and will have to cut the dividend.  If you saw a dividend cut that would probably be the day to buy it.

other services
Jason Mann

CIO & Co-Founder, Edgehill Patners...

PricePrice
$29.900
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
PAST TOP PICK

*Short* (A Top Pick Nov 3/17, Up 11%)  It was a combination of an e-coli scare, overvaluation and a growth stock becoming a value play.  It is still not a cheap enough stock for him to find any level of support.

food services

*Short* (A Top Pick Nov 3/17, Up 11%)  It was a combination of an e-coli scare, overvaluation and a growth stock becoming a value play.  It is still not a cheap enough stock for him to find any level of support.

food services
Jason Mann

CIO & Co-Founder, Edgehill Patners...

PricePrice
$337.530
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY

They weathered all the storms with online shopping and with competitors coming to Canada.  They have a decent PE of 16 times, a decent yield.  They have good quality earnings with 15% ROE.  It has good valuation and the type of stock he looks for.

specialty stores

They weathered all the storms with online shopping and with competitors coming to Canada.  They have a decent PE of 16 times, a decent yield.  They have good quality earnings with 15% ROE.  It has good valuation and the type of stock he looks for.

specialty stores
Jason Mann

CIO & Co-Founder, Edgehill Patners...

PricePrice
$171.680
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Cenovus Energy(CVE-T) 

January 18, 2018

They got into trouble last year.  They paid a lot of money for an acquisition.  They have since sold a lot of assets and de-levered.  7% cash flow yield vs. 4% for the group.  They will have torque to an energy cycle that he feels in its early stages.  (Analysts’ target: $15.00).

oil/gas

They got into trouble last year.  They paid a lot of money for an acquisition.  They have since sold a lot of assets and de-levered.  7% cash flow yield vs. 4% for the group.  They will have torque to an energy cycle that he feels in its early stages.  (Analysts’ target: $15.00).

oil/gas
Jason Mann

CIO & Co-Founder, Edgehill Patners...

PricePrice
$13.040
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
COMMENT
CVS Health Corp(CVS-N) 

January 18, 2018

The acquisition is a big one and because of the size there is some fear they can’t get it done.  There is more risk to this deal than normal.  It is in no man’s land otherwise.  It has not got strong price momentum, but has a good balance sheet.

specialty stores

The acquisition is a big one and because of the size there is some fear they can’t get it done.  There is more risk to this deal than normal.  It is in no man’s land otherwise.  It has not got strong price momentum, but has a good balance sheet.

specialty stores
Jason Mann

CIO & Co-Founder, Edgehill Patners...

PricePrice
$79.350
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
DON'T BUY
ECN Capital(ECN-T) 

January 18, 2018

He held it in the past.  It trades at around 0.9 times book ($4.40).  They are selling down divisions at or above book.  They have a lot of acquisitions but deals are not as cheap as they were.  He prefers EFN-T. 

Financial Services

He held it in the past.  It trades at around 0.9 times book ($4.40).  They are selling down divisions at or above book.  They have a lot of acquisitions but deals are not as cheap as they were.  He prefers EFN-T. 

Financial Services
Jason Mann

CIO & Co-Founder, Edgehill Patners...

PricePrice
$3.810
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
BUY

It is a bit small cap for him.  It has good price momentum, good valuation, is cheap on a book value basis, and has a good balance sheet.  You can buy it for a cyclical recovery.

oil/gas

It is a bit small cap for him.  It has good price momentum, good valuation, is cheap on a book value basis, and has a good balance sheet.  You can buy it for a cyclical recovery.

oil/gas
Jason Mann

CIO & Co-Founder, Edgehill Patners...

PricePrice
$0.770
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
PAST TOP PICK
Interfor Corp(IFP-T) 

January 18, 2018

(A Top Pick Nov 3/17, Up 54%)  They have all done really well.  This one is the 4th largest lumber player.  The valuations now are not as cheap as when he bought them but the price momentum is still there.  There is always a chance that someone takes them out.  They have 60% production in the US so all tariffs would do is drive the price higher.

west coast forestry

(A Top Pick Nov 3/17, Up 54%)  They have all done really well.  This one is the 4th largest lumber player.  The valuations now are not as cheap as when he bought them but the price momentum is still there.  There is always a chance that someone takes them out.  They have 60% production in the US so all tariffs would do is drive the price higher.

west coast forestry
Jason Mann

CIO & Co-Founder, Edgehill Patners...

PricePrice
$22.810
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
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