Teal Linde
Member since: Feb '14
Portfolio Manager & Publisher, Linde Equity Report at
Linde Equity Report
Linde Equity Report
620 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
(A Top Pick May 21/19, Down 25%) Last year, trade tensions between US and China hurt their business, because 10% of their business is agricultural equipment and that trade war hurt agriculture. The GM strike also hurt. There was insider buying over the winter, which is a plus. The virus has made this a buying opportunity now. A solid hold for him. Peak auto has hit the world, yes, but those declines in sales have been gradual.
(A Top Pick May 21/19, Down 50%) He figured that oil was near the bottom of the cycle when he bought this last year, but the virus and oil crisis have pushed energy lower. TCW's managers have been buying shares, which encourages him. Also, their balance sheet is strong, especially debt-equity, compared to its peers. This is positioned to bounce back.
(A Top Pick May 21/19, Up 20%) Tech has done surprisingly well very well, though some don't deserve to be, including Square. Its earning estimates are down 50% this year and 25% next year, and yet the stock is up. He actually sold this two weeks ago on a high valuation basis.
There's been serious insider buying recently, something he always likes in stocks, $2 million worth. They do carry a lot of debt which concerns the market and is pressuring the stock. One third of operations are in drilling for natural gas, less than 20% is in troubled Canadian oil, and has operations in the U.S., Australia, Argentina, Iran and Kuwait. They have positive cash flow. ESI can hold their prices with more discipline than the rest of the oil/gas industry. (Analysts’ price target is $0.71)
Canada's biggest lumber producer in the west coast. Consistently profitable, but it got tangled in an 8-month strike last year. When that ended, the stock started to rise in February until the virus hit. There's lots of insider buying, which triggered him to buy. WEF trades at 0.6x book value, a third of 2014-18 levels, so this could bounce back 300%. (Analysts’ price target is $1.02)
Signal
Opinion
Expert
Chart
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 19, 2020
He's finding the right point to switch to aggressive stocks during this disruption. During bear markets you get lucrative buying opportunities in order to offset lower returns. The strategy is to gradually buy stocks that fell 50%, but will return to previous levels, rather than stocks that declined 10%.
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He's finding the right point to switch to aggressive stocks during this disruption. During bear markets you get lucrative buying opportunities in order to offset lower returns. The strategy is to gradually buy stocks that fell 50%, but will return to previous levels, rather than stocks that declined 10%.
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 19, 2020
MCD vs. Starbucks Can they increase locations and sales per location? MCD is saturated, so they are trying to increase the latter. Starbucks is doing both. MCD makes money from franchise fees. They're equal, leaders in their field. He can't choose one over the other.
food services
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
May 19, 2020
A rise in home spending to come HD has run back up, because people have discretionary income they're not spending on restaurants and clothes, because they're stuck at home. He's owned this before. 1980-2007, HD was expanding locations, but since 2009 they have added few. Instead, they are selling higher-margin profits to boost revenues, but the growth rate in this has slowed. That's why he sold.
Show full opinionHide full opinionA rise in home spending to come HD has run back up, because people have discretionary income they're not spending on restaurants and clothes, because they're stuck at home. He's owned this before. 1980-2007, HD was expanding locations, but since 2009 they have added few. Instead, they are selling higher-margin profits to boost revenues, but the growth rate in this has slowed. That's why he sold.
specialty stores
BUY
BUY
May 19, 2020
He'd buy it today. Brookfield thrives in downturns, such as 2008, buying assets/properties when there's blood on the streets. Management was buying back a lot of shares in the March sell-off. BAM buys alternative (to fixed income) assets. So, with interest rates near zero, BAM is attractive. BAM's 5-year plan (from late 2019) projects a 20% annualized return in the next five years. Good to own for the long term.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe'd buy it today. Brookfield thrives in downturns, such as 2008, buying assets/properties when there's blood on the streets. Management was buying back a lot of shares in the March sell-off. BAM buys alternative (to fixed income) assets. So, with interest rates near zero, BAM is attractive. BAM's 5-year plan (from late 2019) projects a 20% annualized return in the next five years. Good to own for the long term.
management/diversified
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 19, 2020
Dividends for safety, to sleep at night. Also look at Canadian bank stocks which have sold off 19-35%. Factor dividends and stock appreciation for consistent returns. In 2010, they endured without cutting dividends. They haven't cut them since 1940. He isn't worried about the headwinds, like a weak real estate market.
Show full opinionHide full opinionDividends for safety, to sleep at night. Also look at Canadian bank stocks which have sold off 19-35%. Factor dividends and stock appreciation for consistent returns. In 2010, they endured without cutting dividends. They haven't cut them since 1940. He isn't worried about the headwinds, like a weak real estate market.
BUY
BUY
May 19, 2020
Precious metals Central banks are expanding balance sheets which makes precious metals bullish. Seven of the 10 top performers on the TSX this year have been gold stocks. He doesn't own many gold stocks, given gold price uncertainty, but he likes Equinox Gold for its growth profile.
Show full opinionHide full opinionPrecious metals Central banks are expanding balance sheets which makes precious metals bullish. Seven of the 10 top performers on the TSX this year have been gold stocks. He doesn't own many gold stocks, given gold price uncertainty, but he likes Equinox Gold for its growth profile.
Mining
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
May 19, 2020
It's trading near its 8-year low. MFC is most responsive to changes in equity markets. It's trading now at price-to-book of 0.6x, so you could probably buy it now and be fine, but an American one has sold off as much, but isn't enduring a restructuring like MFC. He prefers Lincoln National in the US where there is also insider buying. MFC doesn't have insider buying.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt's trading near its 8-year low. MFC is most responsive to changes in equity markets. It's trading now at price-to-book of 0.6x, so you could probably buy it now and be fine, but an American one has sold off as much, but isn't enduring a restructuring like MFC. He prefers Lincoln National in the US where there is also insider buying. MFC doesn't have insider buying.
insurance
BUY
BUY
May 19, 2020
They bought the Prince George refinery and sold off their Pioneer Pipeline project. That's helped their balance sheet. The refinery has performed better than expected. Northern BC will benefit from LNG Canada and TransMountain. There's also been insider buying here, another plus.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey bought the Prince George refinery and sold off their Pioneer Pipeline project. That's helped their balance sheet. The refinery has performed better than expected. Northern BC will benefit from LNG Canada and TransMountain. There's also been insider buying here, another plus.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 19, 2020
(A Top Pick May 21/19, Down 25%) Last year, trade tensions between US and China hurt their business, because 10% of their business is agricultural equipment and that trade war hurt agriculture. The GM strike also hurt. There was insider buying over the winter, which is a plus. The virus has made this a buying opportunity now. A solid hold for him. Peak auto has hit the world, yes, but those declines in sales have been gradual.
(A Top Pick May 21/19, Down 25%) Last year, trade tensions between US and China hurt their business, because 10% of their business is agricultural equipment and that trade war hurt agriculture. The GM strike also hurt. There was insider buying over the winter, which is a plus. The virus has made this a buying opportunity now. A solid hold for him. Peak auto has hit the world, yes, but those declines in sales have been gradual.
transportation equip & components
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 19, 2020
(A Top Pick May 21/19, Down 50%) He figured that oil was near the bottom of the cycle when he bought this last year, but the virus and oil crisis have pushed energy lower. TCW's managers have been buying shares, which encourages him. Also, their balance sheet is strong, especially debt-equity, compared to its peers. This is positioned to bounce back.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick May 21/19, Down 50%) He figured that oil was near the bottom of the cycle when he bought this last year, but the virus and oil crisis have pushed energy lower. TCW's managers have been buying shares, which encourages him. Also, their balance sheet is strong, especially debt-equity, compared to its peers. This is positioned to bounce back.
oil/gas field services
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
May 19, 2020
(A Top Pick May 21/19, Up 20%) Tech has done surprisingly well very well, though some don't deserve to be, including Square. Its earning estimates are down 50% this year and 25% next year, and yet the stock is up. He actually sold this two weeks ago on a high valuation basis.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick May 21/19, Up 20%) Tech has done surprisingly well very well, though some don't deserve to be, including Square. Its earning estimates are down 50% this year and 25% next year, and yet the stock is up. He actually sold this two weeks ago on a high valuation basis.
HOLD
HOLD
May 19, 2020
How will them using Huawei products effect them? Huawei isn't hurting share price, but market sentiment is. Telcos are a stronghold in this lockdown. This is one of the few stocks he'd rely on for income. But don't buy defensive stocks now. It's too late to buy them because we're inside a bear market now (you buy defensives before the bear). Instead, start buying aggressive stocks.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHow will them using Huawei products effect them? Huawei isn't hurting share price, but market sentiment is. Telcos are a stronghold in this lockdown. This is one of the few stocks he'd rely on for income. But don't buy defensive stocks now. It's too late to buy them because we're inside a bear market now (you buy defensives before the bear). Instead, start buying aggressive stocks.
telephone utilities
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
May 19, 2020
Even the CEO said this stock is too high. He bought this in 2012, early, but since 2018, their sales have been flat. He sold. Tesla has run up as investors anticipate good sales in China. That's too optimistic. The Chinese and Europeans prefer buying their own cars.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEven the CEO said this stock is too high. He bought this in 2012, early, but since 2018, their sales have been flat. He sold. Tesla has run up as investors anticipate good sales in China. That's too optimistic. The Chinese and Europeans prefer buying their own cars.
HOLD
HOLD
May 19, 2020
It's been hit like all airline stocks during this lockdown, and has fallen the most in his portfolio. It's the blue-chip airplane leasing company in the world, which is a plus. They own planes in the first third of their shelf life, another positive. They have a strong balance sheet. Another plus is that Asia is their biggest customer as well as eastern Europe, but not America, which has been disproportionately hit by the virus. He still likes it.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt's been hit like all airline stocks during this lockdown, and has fallen the most in his portfolio. It's the blue-chip airplane leasing company in the world, which is a plus. They own planes in the first third of their shelf life, another positive. They have a strong balance sheet. Another plus is that Asia is their biggest customer as well as eastern Europe, but not America, which has been disproportionately hit by the virus. He still likes it.
Financial Services
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
May 19, 2020
For the long term The big money has already been made here by private equity investors. But Uber is still growing as a duopoly (with Lyft). It's breaking even on an EBITDA basis and not losing money as some think, but Uber Eats is losing money. Uber enjoyed double-digit growth before the virus, and will likely return to that, but earnings may be weak short term. That said, you will come out ahead for the long term. Uber doesn't spend money on cars, but rather marketing. The scalability also makes this attractive. This will grow, but not as much as in the past.
For the long term The big money has already been made here by private equity investors. But Uber is still growing as a duopoly (with Lyft). It's breaking even on an EBITDA basis and not losing money as some think, but Uber Eats is losing money. Uber enjoyed double-digit growth before the virus, and will likely return to that, but earnings may be weak short term. That said, you will come out ahead for the long term. Uber doesn't spend money on cars, but rather marketing. The scalability also makes this attractive. This will grow, but not as much as in the past.
Technology
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