Opinions by Michael Underhill | StockChase
92
Michael Underhill

Portfolio Manager, Exempler Funds

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jan 2013

Capital Innovations


Opinions by Michael Underhill


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2016-10-24

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Markets.  Real assets such as Agriculture, Real Estate, Collectibles, Commodities, and infrastructure are at their cheapest relative to financial assets since the late 1920s.   When you look at some of the metrics on some of these you see monetary policy.  They prop up financial assets.  Emerging market real estate is really quite cheap.  Depending upon the type of real estate, there are different kinds of metrics.  Student housing, for example, looks cheap in Latin America but in the US it looks expensive.  People are going into Britain and buying real estate.  Companies that export outside of the UK are doing quite well.

Michael Underhill

Portfolio Manager, Exempler Funds, Capital Innovations

Price: $0.020
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2016-10-24

DON'T BUY
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Financial services.  If you look at their ability to manage their rate exposure, they can’t manage it in Europe with negative interest rates.

Michael Underhill

Portfolio Manager, Exempler Funds, Capital Innovations

Price: $0.020
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2016-10-24

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Investing in US Companies.  Short term currency risks are the fastest way to lose money.  Be very careful round currency risk.  There is more currency risk and uncertainty to come.  Look for a fund that manages currency risk for you.  

Michael Underhill

Portfolio Manager, Exempler Funds, Capital Innovations

Price: $0.020
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2016-10-24

BUY
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Favourite commodity recommendation with stability 5 years plus.  There is decreasing supply of trees worldwide and increasing demand.  Timber should appreciate 6% over the next 30 years.  You need to increase exposure as you see supply coming off line and decrease as demand comes on line. 

Michael Underhill

Portfolio Manager, Exempler Funds, Capital Innovations

Price: $0.020
Owned: Yes

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2016-10-24

TOP PICK
Barrick Gold (ABX-T)

They returned debt earlier this year.  Cost profitability has goes up and you will see better margins when they report later this week.  The uncertainty with US elections and dollar, gold will come back into favour.

precious metals
Michael Underhill

Portfolio Manager, Exempler Funds, Capital Innovations

Price: $22.090
Owned: Yes

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2016-10-24

BUY
Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM-N)

AGU-T vs. ADM-N.  AGU-T has the merger firmly baked into the stock.  ADM-T is well positioned with good commodity exposure and from here has a good 15-20% upside in the stock.  They don’t use opportunistic hedges but have a commodities trading desk and lock in some of their contracts.

food processing
Michael Underhill

Portfolio Manager, Exempler Funds, Capital Innovations

Price: $42.510
Owned: Unknown

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2016-10-24

COMMENT
Ag Growth International Inc (AFN-T)

It is a comparable to DE-N.  It has a nice chart, nice dividend and nice growth.  It is more of a growth play than DE-N, which is more of a value play. 

machinery
Michael Underhill

Portfolio Manager, Exempler Funds, Capital Innovations

Price: $47.650
Owned: Unknown

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2016-10-24

DON'T BUY
Agrium (AGU-T)

AGU-T vs. POT-T.  How much are the stocks going to be worth after the merger?  A lot of the value has been squeezed out of the play.  POT-T is more of a deep value play.  POT-T will give you a little bit better yield and is his preferred.

chemicals
Michael Underhill

Portfolio Manager, Exempler Funds, Capital Innovations

Price: $124.280
Owned: Unknown

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2016-10-24

DON'T BUY
Agrium (AGU-T)

AGU-T vs. ADM-N.  AGU-T has the merger firmly baked into the stock.  ADM-T is well positioned with good commodity exposure and from here has a good 15-20% upside in the stock. They don’t use opportunistic hedges, but have a commodities trading desk and lock in some of their contracts.

chemicals
Michael Underhill

Portfolio Manager, Exempler Funds, Capital Innovations

Price: $124.280
Owned: Unknown

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2016-10-24

WEAK BUY
Aecon Group Inc (ARE-T)

If you are looking for a company in the design and engineering space, this one can benefit.  They have not experienced the benefit in the last 3 to 5 years.  You could look at utilities in the shorter term.  It is one of the leading companies out there and there is nothing questionable about the balance sheet.  It is not the top idea in the portfolio, however. 

contractors
Michael Underhill

Portfolio Manager, Exempler Funds, Capital Innovations

Price: $17.980
Owned: Unknown

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2016-10-24

BUY
Canfor Corp (CFP-T)

CFP-T vs. CFX-T.  CFP-T has more leverage to building products.  He prefers it over CFX-T.  He does not invest in pulp.

west coast forestry
Michael Underhill

Portfolio Manager, Exempler Funds, Capital Innovations

Price: $13.830
Owned: Unknown

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2016-10-24

DON'T BUY
Canfor Pulp Products (CFX-T)

CFP-T vs. CFX-T.  CFP-T has more leverage to building products.  He prefers it over CFX-T.  He does not invest in pulp.

Forestry
Michael Underhill

Portfolio Manager, Exempler Funds, Capital Innovations

Price: $10.140
Owned: No

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2016-10-24

PAST TOP PICK
Energy Transfer Partners L. P. (ETP-N)

(Top Pick Jul 2/14, Down 21.54%) You look at the correction in oil hitting harder than expected and then you look at the yield and the outlook for energy.  This would be a good value play where you get paid to wait. 

gas pipelines
Michael Underhill

Portfolio Manager, Exempler Funds, Capital Innovations

Price: $36.870
Owned: Yes

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2016-10-24

COMMENT
Glencore (GLEN-LN)

It has not been without its volatility.  They deleveraged in Jan/Feb this year.  They continued deleveraging and if you look at them now they are one of the more unique global diversified resource plays.  They are trying to conserve cash, pay off debt and sell non-core assets. 

conglomerate
Michael Underhill

Portfolio Manager, Exempler Funds, Capital Innovations

Price: $0.010
Owned: Unknown

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2016-10-24

HOLD
IBI Group (IBG-T)

It is an infrastructure spending play.  If you took a profit at this juncture you may be a bit early.  The planning phase takes years for one of these projects.  Infrastructure spending comes from fiscal stimulus.  There is going to be more infrastructure spending and more projects.  There will be a longer term need for these companies.  This stock has troughed out, but you could make more in the future. 

Business Services
Michael Underhill

Portfolio Manager, Exempler Funds, Capital Innovations

Price: $6.330
Owned: Unknown

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