Caldwell Investment Management
Latest Top Picks
They have such a strong position that you wonder why they don't have a stronger position. It is the AMZN-Q situation. They are more of a value trap. People seem to prefer UPS.
She would consider buying both. LOW-N brought in a new management team with a lot of self-help initiatives to closed the gap, but HD-N has also been very strong and both are a home-run in the area. The recession just keeps getting pushed out
She would consider buying both. LOW-N brought in a new management team with a lot of self-help initiatives to closed the gap, but HD-N has also been very strong and both are a home-run in the area. The recession just keeps getting pushed out
They are a roll up story. The risk is just autonomous driven vehicles.
They are a roll up story. The risk is just autonomous driven vehicles.
Onyx has done a good job on their portfolios. She has been playing this through KKR-N and Brookfield to get these secular drivers. They have strong alignment with shareholders.
Onyx has done a good job on their portfolios. She has been playing this through KKR-N and Brookfield to get these secular drivers. They have strong alignment with shareholders.
She has not owned any gold for the longest time. She has been looking for opportunities where they can go higher without the commodity going higher. She is not sure about Equinox and it has not hit any of her screens yet.
She has not owned any gold for the longest time. She has been looking for opportunities where they can go higher without the commodity going higher. She is not sure about Equinox and it has not hit any of her screens yet.
Market. It's amazing how sentiment has really shifted for the investor. We’ve been hearing concerns everyone had about 2008-2009. There is always a bit of scepticism about this market. Markets continued to grind higher. What you look for are signs of overconfidence. With the interest in marijuana and the digital currency industry, (unproven business models), people are just lining up to toss their dough at it. At the bottom, there is a lot of fear and no one wants to talk or think about stocks.
Market. It's amazing how sentiment has really shifted for the investor. We’ve been hearing concerns everyone had about 2008-2009. There is always a bit of scepticism about this market. Markets continued to grind higher. What you look for are signs of overconfidence. With the interest in marijuana and the digital currency industry, (unproven business models), people are just lining up to toss their dough at it. At the bottom, there is a lot of fear and no one wants to talk or think about stocks.
In 2014 you were seeing negative same store sales. They brought in a new CEO, and have done a really good job of getting the menu shifted to consumer preferences. The company is really doing well. 6% same-store sales growth in the last quarter. The trade-off is that valuations have moved up with all the good news. Now it has gotten pricey and is too pricey for her.
In 2014 you were seeing negative same store sales. They brought in a new CEO, and have done a really good job of getting the menu shifted to consumer preferences. The company is really doing well. 6% same-store sales growth in the last quarter. The trade-off is that valuations have moved up with all the good news. Now it has gotten pricey and is too pricey for her.
The thing with this, as we have seen with a lot of stocks, is the Amazon factor. If you don't own Amazon, you are kind of behind the curve because it has done so well. However, on the flipside, if you own anything that Amazon is remotely touching, you are going to get penalized. This company falls into that category. It screens great on any kind of a value metric, but there is this huge overhang in the industry. She doesn't want to own anything that is even remotely spoken about that has an Amazon connection.
The thing with this, as we have seen with a lot of stocks, is the Amazon factor. If you don't own Amazon, you are kind of behind the curve because it has done so well. However, on the flipside, if you own anything that Amazon is remotely touching, you are going to get penalized. This company falls into that category. It screens great on any kind of a value metric, but there is this huge overhang in the industry. She doesn't want to own anything that is even remotely spoken about that has an Amazon connection.
A great company. A leader in designing any kind of electronics in any type of product. They are part of the design and testing that goes into making sure a product really works. Has a lot of growth opportunities in autos, network communications, etc. It’s a name she continues to like. Management thinks that they can do a lot of the jobs with a growth runway and get it back to a growth profile. As that happens, she thinks the multiple moves higher and it has good earnings growth opportunities.
A great company. A leader in designing any kind of electronics in any type of product. They are part of the design and testing that goes into making sure a product really works. Has a lot of growth opportunities in autos, network communications, etc. It’s a name she continues to like. Management thinks that they can do a lot of the jobs with a growth runway and get it back to a growth profile. As that happens, she thinks the multiple moves higher and it has good earnings growth opportunities.
Recently sold her holdings as it seemed the stock was rolling over. Also, there was more and more concern about potential new competitors coming into the space, particularly on the electric bus side. One reason the company did so well was because of a few bankruptcies and consolidations, so pricing power was really good and there were a minimal number of players. The company subsequently made an acquisition, and the stock has gone on, getting close to its old highs. It seems to still have a good runway with some good upside in the stock.
Recently sold her holdings as it seemed the stock was rolling over. Also, there was more and more concern about potential new competitors coming into the space, particularly on the electric bus side. One reason the company did so well was because of a few bankruptcies and consolidations, so pricing power was really good and there were a minimal number of players. The company subsequently made an acquisition, and the stock has gone on, getting close to its old highs. It seems to still have a good runway with some good upside in the stock.
This has done phenomenally well. In the auto parts space, there is the big story of peak auto, with North American auto production going down. In Q4 production was down 6%. In this company's case, they have a nice ability of being able to grow because of cost cutting. They’ve really been executing on their business plan, and made a number of investments that are starting to pay off. She thinks the shares will go higher.
This has done phenomenally well. In the auto parts space, there is the big story of peak auto, with North American auto production going down. In Q4 production was down 6%. In this company's case, they have a nice ability of being able to grow because of cost cutting. They’ve really been executing on their business plan, and made a number of investments that are starting to pay off. She thinks the shares will go higher.
People were thinking there was going to be volatility in 2017, but markets literally went straight up. Now the forecast for 2018 is higher volatility, and we’ll have to see what happens. This is based on the entire market, but you have to remember the market is not just made up of one thing, it is made out of other pieces of businesses. She runs a very concentrated portfolio, which allows her to cherry pick the parts of the market that she thinks will do well, so she is not just in the broad market. Doesn't see how people can do well by owning a broad market.
People were thinking there was going to be volatility in 2017, but markets literally went straight up. Now the forecast for 2018 is higher volatility, and we’ll have to see what happens. This is based on the entire market, but you have to remember the market is not just made up of one thing, it is made out of other pieces of businesses. She runs a very concentrated portfolio, which allows her to cherry pick the parts of the market that she thinks will do well, so she is not just in the broad market. Doesn't see how people can do well by owning a broad market.
(A Top Pick Jan 17/17. Down 18%.) Everything played out in terms of the macro tailwinds that she had seen, but the company was so successful in taking market share from its smaller peers, that they decided they didn't want that to continue happening, so there was pricing pressure in one of their significant sectors. She sold her holdings after the latest earnings report.
(A Top Pick Jan 17/17. Down 18%.) Everything played out in terms of the macro tailwinds that she had seen, but the company was so successful in taking market share from its smaller peers, that they decided they didn't want that to continue happening, so there was pricing pressure in one of their significant sectors. She sold her holdings after the latest earnings report.
(A Top Pick Jan 17/17. 0% return.) There are really 3 players that dominate the entire space, and she switched to the leading player, Amerisourcebergen (ABC-N).
(A Top Pick Jan 17/17. 0% return.) There are really 3 players that dominate the entire space, and she switched to the leading player, Amerisourcebergen (ABC-N).
(A Top Pick Jan 17/17. Up 13%.) Still thinks this is underperforming from where it should. Nothing has fundamentally changed. Thinks the upcoming quarter will be very good.
(A Top Pick Jan 17/17. Up 13%.) Still thinks this is underperforming from where it should. Nothing has fundamentally changed. Thinks the upcoming quarter will be very good.
CCL Industries or Intertape? She bought this at the start of 2013, and it has had a phenomenal run, but exited a couple of quarters ago. It seemed that a lot was being priced into this stock. She has another company she likes in packaging, where expectations are a lot more reasonable. (See Top Picks)
CCL Industries or Intertape? She bought this at the start of 2013, and it has had a phenomenal run, but exited a couple of quarters ago. It seemed that a lot was being priced into this stock. She has another company she likes in packaging, where expectations are a lot more reasonable. (See Top Picks)
This company has a huge backlog. There is a lot of demand for aircraft, and not a lot of companies that are producing. This is not something you want to own in a market correction. This is something that could do really, really well for you, but you have to be on top of this name for any signs of credit quality in a weakening economy, or even if the market started to top or turnover.
This company has a huge backlog. There is a lot of demand for aircraft, and not a lot of companies that are producing. This is not something you want to own in a market correction. This is something that could do really, really well for you, but you have to be on top of this name for any signs of credit quality in a weakening economy, or even if the market started to top or turnover.
(For a 5-year hold?) Pretty well everybody in the sector has done a lot to take costs down, and make investments into digital enterprise. You have the combination of a rising rate environment that will be helpful. Credit quality across the group remains really strong. All this bodes well for the banks. She prefers Citigroup (C-N).
(For a 5-year hold?) Pretty well everybody in the sector has done a lot to take costs down, and make investments into digital enterprise. You have the combination of a rising rate environment that will be helpful. Credit quality across the group remains really strong. All this bodes well for the banks. She prefers Citigroup (C-N).
Her portfolios don't have much that touches the end consumer, just because of how quickly consumers change their minds. Recent surveys showing usage trends seem to be down on the younger age groups. That is always a concern with companies like this, especially when it is trading at its current valuation multiple. If consumers changed how they viewed this company, that could be disastrous for the share price.
Her portfolios don't have much that touches the end consumer, just because of how quickly consumers change their minds. Recent surveys showing usage trends seem to be down on the younger age groups. That is always a concern with companies like this, especially when it is trading at its current valuation multiple. If consumers changed how they viewed this company, that could be disastrous for the share price.
Has owned this since 2012. There was a lot of fear on their switches and networking being old technology and their business was going to get destroyed. However, Cisco has managed this before. They take their installed base and then pivot to where the industry is going. Instead of selling switches and routers to IT people, they do consulting as to what is actually needed. They are selling a solution, as opposed to just a piece of hardware. Has done a good job on holding growth margins above 60%. The valuation is still attractive.
Has owned this since 2012. There was a lot of fear on their switches and networking being old technology and their business was going to get destroyed. However, Cisco has managed this before. They take their installed base and then pivot to where the industry is going. Instead of selling switches and routers to IT people, they do consulting as to what is actually needed. They are selling a solution, as opposed to just a piece of hardware. Has done a good job on holding growth margins above 60%. The valuation is still attractive.
This has a very strong position on the overnight market, and they are expanding that. They are going through a capital spending period, so you really have to look at their cash flow profile on what they call a maintenance basis, not what they are spending on growth. They are close to an 8% free cash flow yield, which for that type of the business is pretty attractive. There are some very strong online tailwinds going on for them.
This has a very strong position on the overnight market, and they are expanding that. They are going through a capital spending period, so you really have to look at their cash flow profile on what they call a maintenance basis, not what they are spending on growth. They are close to an 8% free cash flow yield, which for that type of the business is pretty attractive. There are some very strong online tailwinds going on for them.
This has been really beaten up and lagging its competitors. Some exposure to the oil/gas industry, being Edmonton-based, put some stigma around it. It’s the 3rd largest design firm in North America. Thinks a lot of headwinds they’ve been seeing are behind them now. 5% free cash flow yield. Dividend yield of 1.4%. (Analysts' price target is $39.50.)
This has been really beaten up and lagging its competitors. Some exposure to the oil/gas industry, being Edmonton-based, put some stigma around it. It’s the 3rd largest design firm in North America. Thinks a lot of headwinds they’ve been seeing are behind them now. 5% free cash flow yield. Dividend yield of 1.4%. (Analysts' price target is $39.50.)
This has technology that optimizes the powertrain. That’s important, because you have all these regulations that come out on vehicle emissions globally, and thinks this one is being grouped in with the North American peak auto fears, but most of their revenue is from outside of North America, and they have powerful tailwinds from regulatory standards coming out. Also, they make about 5X more on electric vehicles. (Analysts' price target is $60.)