Opinions by Jennifer Radman | StockChase
452
Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jan 2013

Caldwell Investment Management


Opinions by Jennifer Radman


Signal Opinion Expert Chart

2017-11-08

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Markets.It is very difficult to predict the top of the market. Markets have steadily climbed. There is so much investor fear driven by headlines of "Is this the market top", "Should we be taking money off the table", etc., and the markets continue to grind higher. Since Trump's election, the Dow had gained 28.5%, the biggest one-year rally since FDR was re-elected in 1945. We still have relatively low growth, versus historical expansionary periods, and valuations are at highs. It is important to have a portfolio focused to high conviction, reducing the number of stocks, and able to target different parts of the market actively, as opposed to the broader market. Markets are now focused on the tax plan and what comes out of that.

Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. Portfolio Manager, Caldwell Investment Management

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-11-08

COMMENT
Apple (AAPL-Q)

This has really outperformed the market over the last year or so. Product launches are a big part of it. Things just shift so quickly in this space that it is not something she is participating in.

electrical/electronic
Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. Portfolio Manager, Caldwell Investment Management

Price: $176.240
Owned: No

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2017-11-08

COMMENT
Amazon.com (AMZN-Q)

What is the potential for a stock split? She doesn't know of any plans, but companies want it to be a reasonable number so there can continue to be a retail base in the stock. The market is giving this company a lot of credit. One analyst was quoted that the rules of valuation do not apply to this company. When you hear that, you wonder how much sentiment is driving the stock. To be fair, they have done a better job of generating cash flow in the last little while. However, they have a history of spending more than they make. Right now, the market is very accommodating to them. She is not participating in this stock.

specialty stores
Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. Portfolio Manager, Caldwell Investment Management

Price: $1132.880
Owned: No

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2017-11-08

PAST TOP PICK
Apogee Enterprises Inc. (APOG-Q)

(A Top Pick Jan 17/17. Down 14%.) A play on construction in the US and Canada. Does a lot of the glass in framing. A new CEO did some really nice work on improving the margins and profile, as well as diversifying. Made an acquisition that frustrated some investors. The revenue and margin profile of that acquisition, isn't quite what they wanted. This back half will be very important, because the backlog has been really strong, and she is looking forward to the next couple of quarters.

misc industrial products
Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. Portfolio Manager, Caldwell Investment Management

Price: $47.770
Owned: Yes

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2017-11-08

COMMENT
Bank of America (BAC-N)

This entire space has been doing well and there is more opportunity to continue grinding higher. They have a lot of company specific issues, with a lot around capital returns and expense controls. The industry has been kind of stuck at this level of operating expenses, so there are a lot of questions on being able to reduce the cost base through technology. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. If they can get some good expense leverage, plus capital return, there is a lot of capital on their balance sheets with their tier 1 ratios that can come back. It seems that, with this administration, they are going to accommodate that. Thinks the group continues to grind higher.

banks
Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. Portfolio Manager, Caldwell Investment Management

Price: $26.790
Owned: No

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2017-11-08

COMMENT
CitiGroup (C-N)

There is still fear coming out of the 08-09 financial crisis. Every quarter the company keeps building on their BV and improving their ROE. They are beyond the point where they are worried about troubled assets. Just had an investors day, which they hadn't hosted in a number of years. It was coming out to the market saying they had really turned the corner. Have set a very achievable target of $9 per share in earnings by 2020, well above today’s $5.25. Thinks the stock continues to grind higher as they move towards their plan.

insurance
Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. Portfolio Manager, Caldwell Investment Management

Price: $72.340
Owned: Yes

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2017-11-08

PAST TOP PICK
Cardinal Health Inc (CAH-N)

(A Top Pick Jan 17/17. Down 18%.) A big Pharma distributor. There have a lot of things coming at them. It is so ingrained in the healthcare space in the US, and there are really 3 companies that control the whole thing. The issue has been around generics price deflation, and the cycle was much more severe than anything they had seen previously. There is also the Amazon factor. Had a spotty performance on the medical device side, and now they are going through a CEO transition. The company has about an 8% free cash flow yield. For that type of a business, when you start seeing easier comps, stabilization and deflation trends which really just started this quarter, the discount to the market is pretty significant, and she is expecting the whole group to trade higher.

wholesale distributors
Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. Portfolio Manager, Caldwell Investment Management

Price: $60.990
Owned: Yes

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2017-11-08

COMMENT
CVS Health Corp (CVS-N)

The biggest problem is Amazon. You have to ask, how does Amazon come into this type of market and destroy a business. If you’re in industries that Amazon can touch, there is a lot of fear. It’ll be hard to say how tough CVS's moat is and how they will be able to compete going forward. This screens very well on a valuation basis, and is compelling to look at, but with the Amazon factor of going into different industries and being very competitive, that is on a lot of people's minds. That overhang can be there for quite a while.

specialty stores
Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. Portfolio Manager, Caldwell Investment Management

Price: $68.990
Owned: Unknown

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2017-11-08

COMMENT
Amdocs (DOX-Q)

One theme she really likes is a company that provides products and services that other companies simply can't live without. This company is so ingrained with other businesses processes. They work with AT&T, BCE, Telus, Rogers and Vodafone. Do back-end billing, making sure you are getting charged what you are supposed to be charged for all the services and back end functions. A great stock.

Telecommunications
Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. Portfolio Manager, Caldwell Investment Management

Price: $63.270
Owned: Yes

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2017-11-08

COMMENT
General Electric (GE-N)

Has been a disappointing stock. It is pretty phenomenal what’s been happening with the company. The cash flow is going to be about half of what they originally guided. Then you start wondering if the dividend is safe. The plan for the new CEO is to start selling some assets and get the balance sheet debt down. It’s always tough with these types of turnarounds to see how successful he is going to be.

electrical/electronic
Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. Portfolio Manager, Caldwell Investment Management

Price: $20.120
Owned: Unknown

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2017-11-08

COMMENT
Home Depot (HD-N)

A great and powerful brand. This has the ability to withstand any attacks that might come from the likes of an Amazon. When you look at the online sales, it is about half of what you would see in the apparel space. The hurricanes should be helpful for the next few quarters, as these economies have to rebuild. It should continue to do well.

specialty stores
Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. Portfolio Manager, Caldwell Investment Management

Price: $164.050
Owned: Unknown

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2017-11-08

TOP PICK
Keysight Technologies Inc. (KEYS-N)

This does both hardware and software that allows other companies to test and design electronic components. The world is becoming more and more technology and electronic component intensive. Often you get companies that don't feel the love in terms of capital allocation priorities or management time. This kind of stagnated for a while. 5G and electric vehicles are a big trend and are kind of getting into software. Between the 3 of them, she expects this to do pretty well. (Analysts' price target is $50.)

Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. Portfolio Manager, Caldwell Investment Management

Price: $45.390
Owned: Yes

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2017-11-08

COMMENT
KKR & Co. LP (KKR-N)

Has been a strong performer. The story hasn't changed for a number of years. When credit spreads blew out in the 1st part of 2016, this company did a good job of clawing its way back. A lot of good things are happening in the company. They still have the ability to raise a lot of capital. Assets under management year-over-year has very strong growth. Performance has been very good, which leads to performance fees they've been collecting. This is a core holding in her portfolio.

Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. Portfolio Manager, Caldwell Investment Management

Price: $19.760
Owned: Yes

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2017-11-08

TOP PICK
LCI Industries (LCII-N)

RVs are not just for the elderly anymore, it's millennials who are loving RVs now. There is a lot of end demand. They’ve done a really good job of expanding their total adjustable markets, essentially the revenue size of the market. They’ve identified another $4 billion or so of a $2+ billion base, which enables them to really grow in value. There are a lot of positive things with this. Being a leader and an innovation leader, it has the ability to move higher. Dividend yield of 1.9%. (Analysts' price target is $130.)

Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. Portfolio Manager, Caldwell Investment Management

Price: $115.750
Owned: Yes

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2017-11-08

COMMENT
McDonalds (MCD-N)

There are so many brands, it is hard to tell which one is going to be able to redefine and re-create themselves. This company has done a phenomenal job. For years they struggled with same-store sales growth. She is cautious on the consumer space, as consumer preferences change so quickly. In food space you have some new brands going more to fresh, and not the hamburgers/fries type of meals. This company has a new CEO with a new plan who has done a number of things to turn the company around. It has a 3% free cash flow yield, and there is not a ton of upside on that multiple at this point. It appears money is going to continue to flow to this company. Probably not a huge performer going forward, but probably not something you will get hurt on either.

food services
Jennifer Radman

VP & Sr. Portfolio Manager, Caldwell Investment Management

Price: $170.100
Owned: Unknown

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