Stock Opinions by Jon Vialoux - Stockchase Experts
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Jon Vialoux @

On Stockchase since : Jan 2013

Research Analyst at CastleMoore Inc.

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Stock Opinions by Jon Vialoux - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

February 8, 2019

Now is a logical point that the major markets should be pausing after pulling back from the TSX's and S&P's 200-day moving average yesterday. In a bull market trend, the 200-day moving average acts as a level of support where buyers take advantage of the dip and support the market for the next leg higher. We've been below the 200-day for over a month, so this level acts as resistance. Is this the final resistance? Who knows? We've had an impressive run-up since late-December of 16%. We've seen tremendous sentiment swings in the past year. December had the highest put-call ratio he's ever seen. Now, we're neutral with even split between the bulls and bears. The price of gold and REITs are still flying high. Trump won't meet China before the March 1 deadline. China wants something recipricol in this trade deal while Trump feels that the current trade situation favours China. He's not surprised to see caution among investors.
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Now is a logical point that the major markets should be pausing after pulling back from the TSX's and S&P's 200-day moving average yesterday. In a bull market trend, the 200-day moving average acts as a level of support where buyers take advantage of the dip and support the market for the next leg higher. We've been below the 200-day for over a month, so this level acts as resistance. Is this the final resistance? Who knows? We've had an impressive run-up since late-December of 16%. We've seen tremendous sentiment swings in the past year. December had the highest put-call ratio he's ever seen. Now, we're neutral with even split between the bulls and bears. The price of gold and REITs are still flying high. Trump won't meet China before the March 1 deadline. China wants something recipricol in this trade deal while Trump feels that the current trade situation favours China. He's not surprised to see caution among investors.
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
It pays an 8% yield but has fallen more than that the past year. The trend says lower lows and lower highs. Not attractive. It's approaching and reacting to its 200-day moving average.
investment companies/funds
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It pays an 8% yield but has fallen more than that the past year. The trend says lower lows and lower highs. Not attractive. It's approaching and reacting to its 200-day moving average.
investment companies/funds
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$17.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Spring is seasonal strength for oil strikes before driving season. Jan.12-April 24 oil gains 10% above the benchmark, positive 12 of 15 years. He's starting to be enticed by the oil stocks. True, CPG suffers lower lows and lower highs, even today. All its moving averages are still down, but this is oversold and due for a bounce. On CPG's side is that oil is in higher demand. But for now, stay away from this.
oil/gas
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Spring is seasonal strength for oil strikes before driving season. Jan.12-April 24 oil gains 10% above the benchmark, positive 12 of 15 years. He's starting to be enticed by the oil stocks. True, CPG suffers lower lows and lower highs, even today. All its moving averages are still down, but this is oversold and due for a bounce. On CPG's side is that oil is in higher demand. But for now, stay away from this.
oil/gas
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$3.420
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Chorus Aviation Inc(CHR-T) 

February 8, 2019

Coincided with the upstick at year's end. October to May sees an uptick in cyclicals like this. It has enjoyed lower lows and lower highs, but has risen above its 200-day moving average which is good--it has gapped higher. We're outside seasonal strength but it's starting to look encouraging.
Transportation & Environmental Services
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Coincided with the upstick at year's end. October to May sees an uptick in cyclicals like this. It has enjoyed lower lows and lower highs, but has risen above its 200-day moving average which is good--it has gapped higher. We're outside seasonal strength but it's starting to look encouraging.
Transportation & Environmental Services
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$7.080
Owned Owned
Unknown

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WAIT
West Fraser Timber(WFT-T) 

February 8, 2019

Lumber's seasonality is between early-November and early-March, before people actually buy their homes. Lumber prices are starting to rise from a serious low (and bad year), but they're starting to come back. WFT had a declining trend based on the falling lumber price, but peer Canfor is cutting output which may benefit EFT. He's concerned it touching its 200-day moving average and declining today. Support at $70, its 50-day moving average. If it holds less level, WFT could see higher highs.
west coast forestry
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Lumber's seasonality is between early-November and early-March, before people actually buy their homes. Lumber prices are starting to rise from a serious low (and bad year), but they're starting to come back. WFT had a declining trend based on the falling lumber price, but peer Canfor is cutting output which may benefit EFT. He's concerned it touching its 200-day moving average and declining today. Support at $70, its 50-day moving average. If it holds less level, WFT could see higher highs.
west coast forestry
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$75.940
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Nvidia Corp(NVDA-Q) 

February 8, 2019

These stocks do well in Q4, and NVDA is the momentum player. October to February, this sector outpaces the benchmark return by 28%, coinciding with the semis and tech sectors. But last Q4, this fell along with the whole market. In 2018, this sector hit lows and have since started to emerge higher to find support. He wants this to hold support at $146.02, its 50-day moving average.
computer software/processing
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These stocks do well in Q4, and NVDA is the momentum player. October to February, this sector outpaces the benchmark return by 28%, coinciding with the semis and tech sectors. But last Q4, this fell along with the whole market. In 2018, this sector hit lows and have since started to emerge higher to find support. He wants this to hold support at $146.02, its 50-day moving average.
computer software/processing
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$148.170
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Seasonality is Dec.2-April 15 when it beats the benchmark by 21%. These tech-related stocks are starting to bottom lately, but not outperforming during the market low. That said, it is a rounded bottom since Q4 2018 and is curently holding its lows. If it can prop higher, this could be a tremendous buying opportunity. The 50-day average is $6.
electrical/electronic
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Seasonality is Dec.2-April 15 when it beats the benchmark by 21%. These tech-related stocks are starting to bottom lately, but not outperforming during the market low. That said, it is a rounded bottom since Q4 2018 and is curently holding its lows. If it can prop higher, this could be a tremendous buying opportunity. The 50-day average is $6.
electrical/electronic
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$6.160
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD
These yield plays do well in the summer when cyclicals (and risk-off stocks) are out of favour. Now, investors are very defensive. DIV has been gaining during current seasonal strength (since late-2018). It's been rangebound the past year, though its above its 200-day moving average. Resistance at $3.15. He's not excitied by this, but it is holding.
other services
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These yield plays do well in the summer when cyclicals (and risk-off stocks) are out of favour. Now, investors are very defensive. DIV has been gaining during current seasonal strength (since late-2018). It's been rangebound the past year, though its above its 200-day moving average. Resistance at $3.15. He's not excitied by this, but it is holding.
other services
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$3.040
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 23/18, Up 6%) Nov.25-Feb.14 is seasonality which coincides with several healthcare conferences. These medical stocks are still outperforming the market. He took profits.
E.T.F.'s
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(A Top Pick Nov 23/18, Up 6%) Nov.25-Feb.14 is seasonality which coincides with several healthcare conferences. These medical stocks are still outperforming the market. He took profits.
E.T.F.'s
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$215.270
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 23/18, Up 6%) Everything sold off in housing last year, which was probably warranted because of two years of declining U.S. home sales, which reflects the overall economy. He doesn't see strength in U.S. homes.
E.T.F.'s
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(A Top Pick Nov 23/18, Up 6%) Everything sold off in housing last year, which was probably warranted because of two years of declining U.S. home sales, which reflects the overall economy. He doesn't see strength in U.S. homes.
E.T.F.'s
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$33.670
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 23/18, Up 1%) Tech's seasonality is in Q4 and CGI is still charting new highs. He sold when it hit resistance.
investment companies/funds
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(A Top Pick Nov 23/18, Up 1%) Tech's seasonality is in Q4 and CGI is still charting new highs. He sold when it hit resistance.
investment companies/funds
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$22.550
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
Walt Disney(DIS-N) 

February 8, 2019

He's unimpressed with their just-released revenue growth. Seasonality is October-February. DIS has sold off with the broader market, but is still trending higher. Has enjoyed higher highs and lows since 2016. DIS was outperforming the market since the start of the year then flatlined. He wouldn't buy now, but hold.
entertainment services
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He's unimpressed with their just-released revenue growth. Seasonality is October-February. DIS has sold off with the broader market, but is still trending higher. Has enjoyed higher highs and lows since 2016. DIS was outperforming the market since the start of the year then flatlined. He wouldn't buy now, but hold.
entertainment services
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$111.510
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Shopify Inc.(SHOP-T) 

February 8, 2019

Volatile with serious moves, like today up 2%. It's starting to break above resistance, which is good. This could very well break out to new highs, because it's still charting higher. Overall, the Canadian tech sector is amazing. Good for the long term.
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Volatile with serious moves, like today up 2%. It's starting to break above resistance, which is good. This could very well break out to new highs, because it's still charting higher. Overall, the Canadian tech sector is amazing. Good for the long term.
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$233.300
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Open Text(OTEX-T) 

February 8, 2019

October to March seasonality. It's moved above its 200-day moving average and has gapped higher. $48 is support and when you can buy and ride it higher.
computer software/processing
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October to March seasonality. It's moved above its 200-day moving average and has gapped higher. $48 is support and when you can buy and ride it higher.
computer software/processing
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$49.090
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Which chart to look at if you're unsure about your investment horizon? If you're shorter-term investor, look at the 20-day moving average; intermediate 50-day; and long-term is the 200-day moving average which is most investors. BAM's 200-day is still pointing higher and is still doing quite well, but short-term it broke its level of support. It's a question mark if BAM can chart a higher high to maintain a low-term positive trend.
management/diversified
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Which chart to look at if you're unsure about your investment horizon? If you're shorter-term investor, look at the 20-day moving average; intermediate 50-day; and long-term is the 200-day moving average which is most investors. BAM's 200-day is still pointing higher and is still doing quite well, but short-term it broke its level of support. It's a question mark if BAM can chart a higher high to maintain a low-term positive trend.
management/diversified
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$57.830
Owned Owned
Unknown

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