Stock Opinions by Jon Vialoux - Stockchase Experts
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Jon Vialoux

On Stockchase since : Jan 2013

Research Analyst at CastleMoore Inc.

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Stock Opinions by Jon Vialoux - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

February 8, 2019

Now is a logical point that the major markets should be pausing after pulling back from the TSX's and S&P's 200-day moving average yesterday. In a bull market trend, the 200-day moving average acts as a level of support where buyers take advantage of the dip and support the market for the next leg higher. We've been below the 200-day for over a month, so this level acts as resistance. Is this the final resistance? Who knows? We've had an impressive run-up since late-December of 16%. We've seen tremendous sentiment swings in the past year. December had the highest put-call ratio he's ever seen. Now, we're neutral with even split between the bulls and bears. The price of gold and REITs are still flying high. Trump won't meet China before the March 1 deadline. China wants something recipricol in this trade deal while Trump feels that the current trade situation favours China. He's not surprised to see caution among investors.
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Now is a logical point that the major markets should be pausing after pulling back from the TSX's and S&P's 200-day moving average yesterday. In a bull market trend, the 200-day moving average acts as a level of support where buyers take advantage of the dip and support the market for the next leg higher. We've been below the 200-day for over a month, so this level acts as resistance. Is this the final resistance? Who knows? We've had an impressive run-up since late-December of 16%. We've seen tremendous sentiment swings in the past year. December had the highest put-call ratio he's ever seen. Now, we're neutral with even split between the bulls and bears. The price of gold and REITs are still flying high. Trump won't meet China before the March 1 deadline. China wants something recipricol in this trade deal while Trump feels that the current trade situation favours China. He's not surprised to see caution among investors.
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
It pays an 8% yield but has fallen more than that the past year. The trend says lower lows and lower highs. Not attractive. It's approaching and reacting to its 200-day moving average.
investment companies/funds
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It pays an 8% yield but has fallen more than that the past year. The trend says lower lows and lower highs. Not attractive. It's approaching and reacting to its 200-day moving average.
investment companies/funds
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$17.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Spring is seasonal strength for oil strikes before driving season. Jan.12-April 24 oil gains 10% above the benchmark, positive 12 of 15 years. He's starting to be enticed by the oil stocks. True, CPG suffers lower lows and lower highs, even today. All its moving averages are still down, but this is oversold and due for a bounce. On CPG's side is that oil is in higher demand. But for now, stay away from this.
oil/gas
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Spring is seasonal strength for oil strikes before driving season. Jan.12-April 24 oil gains 10% above the benchmark, positive 12 of 15 years. He's starting to be enticed by the oil stocks. True, CPG suffers lower lows and lower highs, even today. All its moving averages are still down, but this is oversold and due for a bounce. On CPG's side is that oil is in higher demand. But for now, stay away from this.
oil/gas
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$3.420
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Chorus Aviation Inc(CHR-T) 

February 8, 2019

Coincided with the upstick at year's end. October to May sees an uptick in cyclicals like this. It has enjoyed lower lows and lower highs, but has risen above its 200-day moving average which is good--it has gapped higher. We're outside seasonal strength but it's starting to look encouraging.
Transportation & Environmental Services
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Coincided with the upstick at year's end. October to May sees an uptick in cyclicals like this. It has enjoyed lower lows and lower highs, but has risen above its 200-day moving average which is good--it has gapped higher. We're outside seasonal strength but it's starting to look encouraging.
Transportation & Environmental Services
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$7.080
Owned Owned
Unknown

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WAIT
West Fraser Timber(WFT-T) 

February 8, 2019

Lumber's seasonality is between early-November and early-March, before people actually buy their homes. Lumber prices are starting to rise from a serious low (and bad year), but they're starting to come back. WFT had a declining trend based on the falling lumber price, but peer Canfor is cutting output which may benefit EFT. He's concerned it touching its 200-day moving average and declining today. Support at $70, its 50-day moving average. If it holds less level, WFT could see higher highs.
west coast forestry
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Lumber's seasonality is between early-November and early-March, before people actually buy their homes. Lumber prices are starting to rise from a serious low (and bad year), but they're starting to come back. WFT had a declining trend based on the falling lumber price, but peer Canfor is cutting output which may benefit EFT. He's concerned it touching its 200-day moving average and declining today. Support at $70, its 50-day moving average. If it holds less level, WFT could see higher highs.
west coast forestry
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$75.940
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Nvidia Corp(NVDA-Q) 

February 8, 2019

These stocks do well in Q4, and NVDA is the momentum player. October to February, this sector outpaces the benchmark return by 28%, coinciding with the semis and tech sectors. But last Q4, this fell along with the whole market. In 2018, this sector hit lows and have since started to emerge higher to find support. He wants this to hold support at $146.02, its 50-day moving average.
computer software/processing
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These stocks do well in Q4, and NVDA is the momentum player. October to February, this sector outpaces the benchmark return by 28%, coinciding with the semis and tech sectors. But last Q4, this fell along with the whole market. In 2018, this sector hit lows and have since started to emerge higher to find support. He wants this to hold support at $146.02, its 50-day moving average.
computer software/processing
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$148.170
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Seasonality is Dec.2-April 15 when it beats the benchmark by 21%. These tech-related stocks are starting to bottom lately, but not outperforming during the market low. That said, it is a rounded bottom since Q4 2018 and is curently holding its lows. If it can prop higher, this could be a tremendous buying opportunity. The 50-day average is $6.
electrical/electronic
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Seasonality is Dec.2-April 15 when it beats the benchmark by 21%. These tech-related stocks are starting to bottom lately, but not outperforming during the market low. That said, it is a rounded bottom since Q4 2018 and is curently holding its lows. If it can prop higher, this could be a tremendous buying opportunity. The 50-day average is $6.
electrical/electronic
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$6.160
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD
These yield plays do well in the summer when cyclicals (and risk-off stocks) are out of favour. Now, investors are very defensive. DIV has been gaining during current seasonal strength (since late-2018). It's been rangebound the past year, though its above its 200-day moving average. Resistance at $3.15. He's not excitied by this, but it is holding.
other services
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These yield plays do well in the summer when cyclicals (and risk-off stocks) are out of favour. Now, investors are very defensive. DIV has been gaining during current seasonal strength (since late-2018). It's been rangebound the past year, though its above its 200-day moving average. Resistance at $3.15. He's not excitied by this, but it is holding.
other services
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$3.040
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 23/18, Up 6%) Nov.25-Feb.14 is seasonality which coincides with several healthcare conferences. These medical stocks are still outperforming the market. He took profits.
E.T.F.'s
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(A Top Pick Nov 23/18, Up 6%) Nov.25-Feb.14 is seasonality which coincides with several healthcare conferences. These medical stocks are still outperforming the market. He took profits.
E.T.F.'s
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$215.270
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 23/18, Up 6%) Everything sold off in housing last year, which was probably warranted because of two years of declining U.S. home sales, which reflects the overall economy. He doesn't see strength in U.S. homes.
E.T.F.'s
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(A Top Pick Nov 23/18, Up 6%) Everything sold off in housing last year, which was probably warranted because of two years of declining U.S. home sales, which reflects the overall economy. He doesn't see strength in U.S. homes.
E.T.F.'s
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$33.670
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 23/18, Up 1%) Tech's seasonality is in Q4 and CGI is still charting new highs. He sold when it hit resistance.
investment companies/funds
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(A Top Pick Nov 23/18, Up 1%) Tech's seasonality is in Q4 and CGI is still charting new highs. He sold when it hit resistance.
investment companies/funds
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$22.550
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
Walt Disney(DIS-N) 

February 8, 2019

He's unimpressed with their just-released revenue growth. Seasonality is October-February. DIS has sold off with the broader market, but is still trending higher. Has enjoyed higher highs and lows since 2016. DIS was outperforming the market since the start of the year then flatlined. He wouldn't buy now, but hold.
entertainment services
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He's unimpressed with their just-released revenue growth. Seasonality is October-February. DIS has sold off with the broader market, but is still trending higher. Has enjoyed higher highs and lows since 2016. DIS was outperforming the market since the start of the year then flatlined. He wouldn't buy now, but hold.
entertainment services
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$111.510
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Shopify Inc.(SHOP-T) 

February 8, 2019

Volatile with serious moves, like today up 2%. It's starting to break above resistance, which is good. This could very well break out to new highs, because it's still charting higher. Overall, the Canadian tech sector is amazing. Good for the long term.
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Volatile with serious moves, like today up 2%. It's starting to break above resistance, which is good. This could very well break out to new highs, because it's still charting higher. Overall, the Canadian tech sector is amazing. Good for the long term.
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$233.300
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Open Text(OTEX-T) 

February 8, 2019

October to March seasonality. It's moved above its 200-day moving average and has gapped higher. $48 is support and when you can buy and ride it higher.
computer software/processing
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October to March seasonality. It's moved above its 200-day moving average and has gapped higher. $48 is support and when you can buy and ride it higher.
computer software/processing
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$49.090
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Which chart to look at if you're unsure about your investment horizon? If you're shorter-term investor, look at the 20-day moving average; intermediate 50-day; and long-term is the 200-day moving average which is most investors. BAM's 200-day is still pointing higher and is still doing quite well, but short-term it broke its level of support. It's a question mark if BAM can chart a higher high to maintain a low-term positive trend.
management/diversified
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Which chart to look at if you're unsure about your investment horizon? If you're shorter-term investor, look at the 20-day moving average; intermediate 50-day; and long-term is the 200-day moving average which is most investors. BAM's 200-day is still pointing higher and is still doing quite well, but short-term it broke its level of support. It's a question mark if BAM can chart a higher high to maintain a low-term positive trend.
management/diversified
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$57.830
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Toronto Dominion(TD-T) 

February 8, 2019

Since December, it's been in seasonality (until March 1). All the Canadian financials rise until the earnings reports at end-February. TD's 200-day moving average is flatlining, and maybe forming lower lows. He's not excited by this.
banks
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Since December, it's been in seasonality (until March 1). All the Canadian financials rise until the earnings reports at end-February. TD's 200-day moving average is flatlining, and maybe forming lower lows. He's not excited by this.
banks
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$74.620
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
A summer play from May-August, but it's still trending higher. Investors are risk-averse with this. Pays a 4.2% dividend.
electrical utilities
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A summer play from May-August, but it's still trending higher. Investors are risk-averse with this. Pays a 4.2% dividend.
electrical utilities
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$14.690
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PARTIAL SELL
BCE Inc.(BCE-T) 

February 8, 2019

Defensives like this are trending higher, though December to March is its seasonality. Its 200-day moving average is moving higher. Taking profits now is a good idea. This could retrace its 200-day moving average.
telephone utilities
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Defensives like this are trending higher, though December to March is its seasonality. Its 200-day moving average is moving higher. Taking profits now is a good idea. This could retrace its 200-day moving average.
telephone utilities
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$57.370
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
ATS Automation(ATA-T) 

February 8, 2019

It gapped higher at $17 following earnings, but hit its 200-day moving average and now going lower. Be cautious here long-term. Feb-July is its seasonality.
misc industrial products
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It gapped higher at $17 following earnings, but hit its 200-day moving average and now going lower. Be cautious here long-term. Feb-July is its seasonality.
misc industrial products
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$18.100
Owned Owned
Unknown

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TOP PICK
Suncor Energy Inc(SU-T) 

February 8, 2019

Within seasonality for oil through the spring into the driving season. We're seeing that now. Gas demand is stronger than usual this year and should eat away at the oil overhang. SU's seasonality is January to May, and it's starting to move up after recently bottoming. (Analysts’ price target is $53.26)
integrated oils
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Within seasonality for oil through the spring into the driving season. We're seeing that now. Gas demand is stronger than usual this year and should eat away at the oil overhang. SU's seasonality is January to May, and it's starting to move up after recently bottoming. (Analysts’ price target is $53.26)
integrated oils
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$42.810
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Emerging markets have been outperforming our markets during the recent meltdown (late-2018) through stimulus. Seasonality of Dec.19-April 9 in EM.
E.T.F.'s
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Emerging markets have been outperforming our markets during the recent meltdown (late-2018) through stimulus. Seasonality of Dec.19-April 9 in EM.
E.T.F.'s
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$42.110
Owned Owned
No

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TOP PICK
CASH(CASH) 

February 8, 2019

He hates mentioning cash during seasonal strength for the broader stock markets, but these markets have come up to their 200-days moving averages. Take profits, even for a couple of days, and enjoy life.
N/A
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He hates mentioning cash during seasonal strength for the broader stock markets, but these markets have come up to their 200-days moving averages. Take profits, even for a couple of days, and enjoy life.
N/A
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

November 23, 2018

He's embracing this volatility. He raised a lot of cash before the fall dip and bought aggressively. He even called for a drop in oil. Oil had plunged because of a supply glut. But we are now at a turning point. Supplies usually rise in mid-November, then decline to year's end. We should've seen stablility around $55, but we broke below that. Seasonal weakness usually ends around early-December.
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He's embracing this volatility. He raised a lot of cash before the fall dip and bought aggressively. He even called for a drop in oil. Oil had plunged because of a supply glut. But we are now at a turning point. Supplies usually rise in mid-November, then decline to year's end. We should've seen stablility around $55, but we broke below that. Seasonal weakness usually ends around early-December.
Unknown
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

November 23, 2018

Why is a 200-day moving average so important? Instead of looking at daily swings, investors can look at this. Long-term investors should look at the 200-day. Intermediate ones, the 50-day. Short-term ones, the 20-day. The markets have traded below the 200-day, which means upward resistance. If this stretches too far above or below means the price could mean-reverts, which spells opportunity, as in January 2018 when the average shot up, then suddenly corrected. Recently, we could be seeing a trend of lower-lows and -highs. Watch the 200-day closely, because if it doesn't break above that, we could see pain ahead.
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Why is a 200-day moving average so important? Instead of looking at daily swings, investors can look at this. Long-term investors should look at the 200-day. Intermediate ones, the 50-day. Short-term ones, the 20-day. The markets have traded below the 200-day, which means upward resistance. If this stretches too far above or below means the price could mean-reverts, which spells opportunity, as in January 2018 when the average shot up, then suddenly corrected. Recently, we could be seeing a trend of lower-lows and -highs. Watch the 200-day closely, because if it doesn't break above that, we could see pain ahead.
Unknown
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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WATCH
Chorus Aviation Inc(CHR-T) 

November 23, 2018

Seasonally, Nov.18-Feb.23 is the best time to buy/hold this. Lately, it's had a downturn, but resisting its 200-day moving average. It's holding the middle of its down-trend channel. He wants it to hold support. Stay away for now, but maybe buy soon.
Transportation & Environmental Services
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Seasonally, Nov.18-Feb.23 is the best time to buy/hold this. Lately, it's had a downturn, but resisting its 200-day moving average. It's holding the middle of its down-trend channel. He wants it to hold support. Stay away for now, but maybe buy soon.
Transportation & Environmental Services
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$6.460
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Parkland Fuel Corp(PKI-T) 

November 23, 2018

Seasonally, it's a summer play: July 27-Nov.8 is the best time. And that happened this year. It had a parabolic run this year, and that is unsustainable. It's attractive now after a recent correction. Outperforming most oil stocks.
merchandising/lodging
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Seasonally, it's a summer play: July 27-Nov.8 is the best time. And that happened this year. It had a parabolic run this year, and that is unsustainable. It's attractive now after a recent correction. Outperforming most oil stocks.
merchandising/lodging
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$37.840
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Saputo Inc.(SAP-T) 

November 23, 2018

Consumer staples are defensive, so it's outperformed the wider market. Seasonally, it shines Jan.16-June 14. Has had a mild, long-term trend of lower-lows and lower-highs, but momentum is now turning higher. Not a place for long-term capital appreciation. This is a first-half of the year story, really.
food processing
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Consumer staples are defensive, so it's outperformed the wider market. Seasonally, it shines Jan.16-June 14. Has had a mild, long-term trend of lower-lows and lower-highs, but momentum is now turning higher. Not a place for long-term capital appreciation. This is a first-half of the year story, really.
food processing
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$40.040
Owned Owned
Unknown

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WATCH
Apple(AAPL-Q) 

November 23, 2018

Had a parabolic trend earlier this year, which means it's unsustainable--which is what happened this fall. It sold off after its latest product launches. Since then, it's seen a parabolic trend lower, which is also unsustainable. It should be forming a bottom soon. Seasonally, it's June 12-Sept.24. Q4 is good for tech stocks.
electrical/electronic
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Had a parabolic trend earlier this year, which means it's unsustainable--which is what happened this fall. It sold off after its latest product launches. Since then, it's seen a parabolic trend lower, which is also unsustainable. It should be forming a bottom soon. Seasonally, it's June 12-Sept.24. Q4 is good for tech stocks.
electrical/electronic
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$172.290
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Now should be a good time for Canadian banks; it's not happening which is a little worrying. Seasonally, CIBC does well in the first-half of a year, Jan. 14 - Apr. 14. It's enjoyed higher highs and lows in recent years. CIBC has come down during it seasonal strength (before earnings) and has resisted its 200-day moving avergage. This is concerning for the long term. He doesn't know if next week's earnings will be a catalyst.
banks
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Now should be a good time for Canadian banks; it's not happening which is a little worrying. Seasonally, CIBC does well in the first-half of a year, Jan. 14 - Apr. 14. It's enjoyed higher highs and lows in recent years. CIBC has come down during it seasonal strength (before earnings) and has resisted its 200-day moving avergage. This is concerning for the long term. He doesn't know if next week's earnings will be a catalyst.
banks
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$113.680
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Metro Inc (A)(MRU-T) 

November 23, 2018

Seasonally, it does well Jan. 7- May 21, outperforming the market. Since 2016, it's been in a trading range topping at $46, but there's no sign it will break above that soon--the same goes with all the grocers. This sector should pick up this time of year. These cyclicals are around the bottom now.
food stores
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0 comments
Seasonally, it does well Jan. 7- May 21, outperforming the market. Since 2016, it's been in a trading range topping at $46, but there's no sign it will break above that soon--the same goes with all the grocers. This sector should pick up this time of year. These cyclicals are around the bottom now.
food stores
0 0 0 0 0
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Jon Vialoux

Research A, CastleMoore Inc....

Price Price
$44.970
Owned Owned
Unknown

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