Thoughts heading into October? Past history says volatile, but historically positive. Summer volatility tends to come to an end. Tend to find the bottoms. Load up on the most cyclical assets, as the next 6 months of the year tend to be the best for stocks. Look for signs of weakness to begin accumulating in sectors you want to be exposed to. Probably not at the low you want to be buying yet. Catalysts include Brexit, jobs report, earnings season. Market gapped lower yesterday, short-term double top. You don't want to just buy the dips. Need something to break out of the gap, and if we don't, we're going lower.

Costco's miss on earnings. Critical time for the consumer economy. He still sees a trend of higher highs, higher lows. Costco tends to do better in the latter half of the year.

Exiting period of seasonality for gold. Tremendous runup, overbought, now it's pulling back. Broke below trend line. Now a trend of lower lows, lower highs. Exited his gold positions. It's not an end to the long-term ride. Another seasonality starts in the new year.

Price of gold. Long-term basing pattern broke at $1375. If gold broke below $1400, that would be a good entry point. Volatility isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Could go up to $1800 rather quickly.

More cyclical, so tends to do well in this time ahead. Optimal holding is between October and February. Mixed picture on the technicals. Has found recent support at 200-day moving average. Can argue reverse head and shoulders, so if we break $7.50 (and he argues we have), it's positive ahead.

Trend of lower lows, lower highs. Wants to see signs of buy and demand. Still strongly underperforming the market. Best he can say is it's oversold, so you could find a bottom. But you have to be tactical. Seasonally positive all the way to February.

Fedex vs. UPS Fedex got clobbered based on past earnings, so they've diverged from UPS. Positive seasonality all the way to Thanksgiving. UPS has a trend of higher highs, higher lows, but Fedex is the reverse. He'd stay away from all transportation altogether because shipping metrics on the economy are pathetic. Better places to be.

UPS vs. Fedex Fedex got clobbered based on past earnings, so they've diverged from UPS. Positive seasonality all the way to Thanksgiving. UPS has a trend of higher highs, higher lows, but Fedex is the reverse. He'd stay away from all transportation altogether because shipping metrics on the economy are pathetic. Better places to be.

Holding firmly at major moving averages. Phenomenal run in the summer, now just resting. More defensive in the summer. Technology still has seasonal runway that can support it. Looking like it's topping here. Has started to break down below rising trend line. 200-day is a more opportune time to pick it up and ride it till it peaks in February.

Payment processors are a long-term hold. Have become the market darlings. Rolled over in September with the rest. Tremendously overbought. A mean reversion to the 200-day moving average would be a better time to pick it up, probably over the next few weeks. September to February is the optimal time to hold.

(A Top Pick Jul 31/19, Up 2%) Minor return, but success during this volatile period. Less correlated and sensitive to market gyrations. The low beta stocks can still be a hold during seasonal weakness for stocks.

(A Top Pick Jul 31/19, Down 5%) All the growth names have pulled back. Software stocks tend to be more defensive, so you can hold them during periods of stock weakness. Software is your new defensive play during the summer. July-November still has some seasonal runway, but the chart shows a head and shoulders pattern, so technically the trend is over.

(A Top Pick Jul 31/19, Up 0.4%) This is a way to lower volatility. A return of 2.15% per year, paid monthly. Hold it during volatility, sell it, and use the return to pick up your cyclicals during periods of seasonal strength.

Seasonal strength for REITs. Seasonality runs through the third quarter, but peaks around this time of year. Coincides with yields that find a low around this time of year. In the summer, you want to search for anything with a yield, like REITs, consumer staples, and utilities. You should take profits now.

Optimal period to hold is July - October. Seasonal strength is in third quarter. Could argue it's started to break down. A rather pronounced move lower. Double top suggests $4 lower if it doesn't hold at $23.43. Don't pursue right now.