Opinions by Ryan Bushell | StockChase
391
Ryan Bushell

V. P. & Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jan 2013

Leon Frazer and Associates


Opinions by Ryan Bushell



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2017-10-03

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Canadian Economy.The strength in the Canadian economy is one of the biggest surprises for financial markets. His outlook is fairly strong. It is on pretty solid footing. Oil prices are now back over $50, which is stabilizing things in Western Canada. There is continued infrastructure spending across the country. There are a lot more hiring signs around, so employment seems to be strong. Minimum wage increases in different provinces will affect things longer-term, putting pressure on businesses and earnings, which could be a problem for the stock market and some of the retail sectors. It probably also drives a fair amount of automation through some of those lower skilled jobs, and could sow the seeds of another employment downturn 3-5 years out. In the meantime, it is a good thing because they have got strong employment so those wage pressures will be pushed upwards through the whole system and should be good for the consumer economy, but eventually there is a limit to that.

Ryan Bushell

V. P. & Portfolio Manager, Leon Frazer and Associates

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-10-03

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Energy.With higher oil prices there is concern that US producers will tend to open the spigot. This week, the US added rigs for the 1st time in about 8 weeks, and prices became a bit soft. However, he is looking positively at the Brent price, which has moved up over $55 in backwardation, which typically means the stock market is getting tighter. Also, there are increased US exports, which is really needed to clear the inventory balance in the US, moving barrels from West to East. As long as the demand picture remains solid, he doesn’t think US shale can really do that much more at $50-$55, but if it gets much more above that, there could be some additional production come on.

Ryan Bushell

V. P. & Portfolio Manager, Leon Frazer and Associates

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-10-03

COMMENT
AutoCanada Inc. (ACQ-T)

One of the smaller companies he has. There are a lot of good things happening. He likes the long-term for the business generally. Servicing of automobiles gets more complex every year, and increasingly servicing gets done at dealerships. The majority of their business is in Alberta, but that has shrunk significantly. Today revenue out of Alberta is less than 50%. It still yields a little under 2%, a little low, but decent for the sector. There are better days ahead for them.

specialty stores
Ryan Bushell

V. P. & Portfolio Manager, Leon Frazer and Associates

Price: $23.550
Owned: Yes

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2017-10-03

PAST TOP PICK
Agrium (AGU-T)

(A Top Pick Nov 10/16. Up 5%.) He bought this after the merger was announced last September. This is now an agricultural conglomerate that you get to own in Cdn$, a great thing for both our economy and Canadian investors. A global leader.

chemicals
Ryan Bushell

V. P. & Portfolio Manager, Leon Frazer and Associates

Price: $133.540
Owned: Yes

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2017-10-03

PAST TOP PICK
Altagas Ltd (ALA-T)

(A Top Pick Nov 10/16. Down 5%.) Now trading at a 7.3% yield and looks like they’re going to increase the dividend in the 4th quarter. With stocks like this, high quality with sustainable dividend yields, you can keep buying into weakness. When the strength comes you own lots of it with a good yield. They are undergoing a major acquisition, and the market perceives it to be a funding gap on how they are going to fund the purchase price.

oil/gas
Ryan Bushell

V. P. & Portfolio Manager, Leon Frazer and Associates

Price: $28.590
Owned: Yes

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2017-10-03

TOP PICK
Altagas Ltd (ALA-T)

A bit decentralized as they operate in a lot of districts, California, BC, Alberta, Michigan, and now trying to acquire a utility provider in the Maryland-DC-Virginia area. Feels the company is misunderstood. Management explained “The market perceives a funding gap for the acquisition, but if we were selling assets right now, the regulator who has to approve the transaction would think that was presumptuous.”, meaning they would think they were getting ahead of themselves by purchasing this asset before the regulator said yes. They are just minding their Ps & Qs with the regulator and have a plan ready to go. Dividend yield of 7.3%. (Analysts’ price target is $33.50.)

oil/gas
Ryan Bushell

V. P. & Portfolio Manager, Leon Frazer and Associates

Price: $28.590
Owned: Yes

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2017-10-03

TOP PICK
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T)

He likes all the Canadian banks at these prices and they are all looking attractive. Canadian banks trade at almost twice the yield of the US banks and at about a 1.5 multiple discount. Dividend yield of 4%. (Analysts’ price target is $86.50.)

banks
Ryan Bushell

V. P. & Portfolio Manager, Leon Frazer and Associates

Price: $80.400
Owned: Yes

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2017-10-03

HOLD
Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG-T)

This has quality assets. Their problem has been management and their messaging to the capital markets. They lost a lot of trust when they did the equity issue last fall. At current levels, it is tremendously cheap relative to its peers and historical prices. Yields over 3%.

oil/gas
Ryan Bushell

V. P. & Portfolio Manager, Leon Frazer and Associates

Price: $9.940
Owned: Yes

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2017-10-03

TOP PICK
Cenovus Energy (CVE-T)

Likes the ConocoPhillips deal. It appears the market might be coming around on this finally. If you take the negative view, it is like they purchased more oil sands assets and deep basin, where they don’t really have expertise, and now they are going to have to sell assets into a bad market. However, those assets they are selling cash flow even at $45, and there is lots of money out there looking for those types of assets. Dividend yield of 1.6%. (Analysts’ price target is $13.50.)

oil/gas
Ryan Bushell

V. P. & Portfolio Manager, Leon Frazer and Associates

Price: $12.300
Owned: Yes

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2017-10-03

DON'T BUY
Canadian Western Bank (CWB-T)

This has had a great recovery with both the oil recovery and housing worries abatement. He wouldn’t look at this in relation to other Canadian banks. Has a yield of under 3%, and you can get Bank of Nova Scotia or Royal Bank that is closer to 4%.

banks
Ryan Bushell

V. P. & Portfolio Manager, Leon Frazer and Associates

Price: $33.950
Owned: Unknown

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2017-10-03

COMMENT
Enbridge (ENB-T)

Energy infrastructure is the largest over-weight in his portfolio, because production of both oil and natural gas in North America has doubled in the last 5-10 years. Not only has production doubled, but it is going completely in the opposite way that it used to. We built all these regasification terminals on the East and West Coasts to bring in LNG. We built all these oil offloading terminals on the Gulf Coast to take oil into the Midwest to refine it, and now oil is going the complete opposite way, as is natural gas for export. This creates a tremendous opportunity for these infrastructure companies. They are undertaking the largest capital project in their history with the line 3 replacement.

oil/gas pipelines
Ryan Bushell

V. P. & Portfolio Manager, Leon Frazer and Associates

Price: $52.410
Owned: Yes

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2017-10-03

HOLD
Inter Pipeline (IPL-T)

The yield is quite attractive. It has been hit recently and doesn’t think that makes a lot of sense. They have a lot of optionality in their pipeline system, where they can add volume if projects continue to be built out. The dividend is well covered, and they continue to increase it.

oil pipelines
Ryan Bushell

V. P. & Portfolio Manager, Leon Frazer and Associates

Price: $25.860
Owned: No

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2017-10-03

COMMENT
North West Company (NWC-T)

This is in retail, but in remote areas. It was once a very good dividend yielder, but was forced to cut their dividend. It is going to be a steady company, and one he would look at, but just not quite large enough or stable enough on a long-term basis. A decent company.

merchandising/lodging
Ryan Bushell

V. P. & Portfolio Manager, Leon Frazer and Associates

Price: $30.210
Owned: No

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2017-10-03

COMMENT
Pembina Pipeline Corp (PPL-T)

He recently purchased more shares, just before the merger was completed. The dividend increases is what is more exciting for him. There was a 12.5% dividend increase this year. A really well run-company, great assets in the Montney and the future is pretty bright.

pipelines
Ryan Bushell

V. P. & Portfolio Manager, Leon Frazer and Associates

Price: $44.170
Owned: Yes

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2017-10-03

WATCH
Rio Tinto (RIO-N)

As a bulk commodities miner, this is looking more interesting. The space has really perked up over the last 6 months. He is starting to see some signs of inflation and the things that are related to inflation. 2018 will be a key year as to whether we get the kind of recovery and move that we saw in the late 2007-2008 and 2010. He would be watching these types of companies.

other mines
Ryan Bushell

V. P. & Portfolio Manager, Leon Frazer and Associates

Price: $48.390
Owned: No

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