Opinions by James Telfser | StockChase
518
James Telfser

Partner & Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Sep 2012

Aventine Management Group
info@Aventine.ca
http://www.aventine.ca

518
James Telfser

Partner & Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Sep 2012

Aventine Management Group
info@Aventine.ca
http://www.aventine.ca


Opinions by James Telfser


Signal Opinion Expert Chart
N/A
General Market Comment 

January 12, 2017

Market. The VIX is still at record lows, so he thinks the current market condition is just a little bit of steam coming off. He’s been getting much more aggressive in his portfolios, and his cash standing is virtually at zero now. Was starting to see positive data on corporate profit, S&P 500 earnings and PMI data before Trump won the election, and it was nice to see that cloud of uncertainty removed. Fully expects some volatility around the inauguration, but is staying Long throughout that.

Market. The VIX is still at record lows, so he thinks the current market condition is just a little bit of steam coming off. He’s been getting much more aggressive in his portfolios, and his cash standing is virtually at zero now. Was starting to see positive data on corporate profit, S&P 500 earnings and PMI data before Trump won the election, and it was nice to see that cloud of uncertainty removed. Fully expects some volatility around the inauguration, but is staying Long throughout that.

Unknown
James Telfser

Partner & Portfolio Manager, Aventine Management ...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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COMMENT
Alaris Royalty(AD-T) 

January 12, 2017

Royalty plays. Great dividend yields, but doesn’t see a lot of reason to get constructive on these names. Sees better opportunity on dividend growth elsewhere.

Financial Services

Royalty plays. Great dividend yields, but doesn’t see a lot of reason to get constructive on these names. Sees better opportunity on dividend growth elsewhere.

Financial Services
James Telfser

Partner & Portfolio Manager, Aventine Management ...

PricePrice
$23.470
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Badger Daylighting(BAD-T) 

January 12, 2017

Great story and a well-run company. If you think about all the trends that are happening with oil and infrastructure spending, it is hard to say that this company is not going to be pretty active. They definitely have the fundamentals to back them. The problem he has always had is that they always trade at very lofty valuations. Part of that is because of ROC that they make from their truck. He looks around and sees a lot of trucks that are not theirs. They don’t have a high barrier to entry like they used to. Prefers other names, but wouldn’t be too worried given the turnaround, and there is more room for multiple expansion.

oil/gas

Great story and a well-run company. If you think about all the trends that are happening with oil and infrastructure spending, it is hard to say that this company is not going to be pretty active. They definitely have the fundamentals to back them. The problem he has always had is that they always trade at very lofty valuations. Part of that is because of ROC that they make from their truck. He looks around and sees a lot of trucks that are not theirs. They don’t have a high barrier to entry like they used to. Prefers other names, but wouldn’t be too worried given the turnaround, and there is more room for multiple expansion.

oil/gas
James Telfser

Partner & Portfolio Manager, Aventine Management ...

PricePrice
$31.600
Owned Owned
No

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WATCH
BlackBerry(BB-T) 

January 12, 2017

One of those “Hail Mary” stocks. You can see where the deep value is in this name and there are a lot of changes going on. Looking at their last quarter and some of the moves they’ve made over the last few quarters, it is definitely encouraging. But you really have to see that translate into numbers. He is still a little skeptical.

electrical/electronic

One of those “Hail Mary” stocks. You can see where the deep value is in this name and there are a lot of changes going on. Looking at their last quarter and some of the moves they’ve made over the last few quarters, it is definitely encouraging. But you really have to see that translate into numbers. He is still a little skeptical.

electrical/electronic
James Telfser

Partner & Portfolio Manager, Aventine Management ...

PricePrice
$9.480
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
BUY
Bombardier Inc (B)(BBD.B-T) 

January 12, 2017

(Market Call Minute.) As a trend follower, he would say buy this here and see what happens.

transportation equip & components

(Market Call Minute.) As a trend follower, he would say buy this here and see what happens.

transportation equip & components
James Telfser

Partner & Portfolio Manager, Aventine Management ...

PricePrice
$2.560
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD
Cott Corp(BCB-T) 

January 12, 2017

No longer just a soda manufacturer. They’ve gotten heavy into the coffee and water delivery business around offices, homes and shops. A high free cash flow business, and they’ve been able to roll up that sector, both in Canada and Europe, on very, very cheap multiples. They’ve put a lot of debt on the balance sheet. While they are generating a lot of free cash flow, it seems the narrative has changed over the last few months. Part of it has to do with the British pound decline. There is a question as to how long they are going to be able to service their debt properly and how long will it take. Sold his holdings, but may look to enter again once they de-lever the business a little.

food processing

No longer just a soda manufacturer. They’ve gotten heavy into the coffee and water delivery business around offices, homes and shops. A high free cash flow business, and they’ve been able to roll up that sector, both in Canada and Europe, on very, very cheap multiples. They’ve put a lot of debt on the balance sheet. While they are generating a lot of free cash flow, it seems the narrative has changed over the last few months. Part of it has to do with the British pound decline. There is a question as to how long they are going to be able to service their debt properly and how long will it take. Sold his holdings, but may look to enter again once they de-lever the business a little.

food processing
James Telfser

Partner & Portfolio Manager, Aventine Management ...

PricePrice
$14.590
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Bank of Nova Scotia(BNS-T) 

January 12, 2017

(Market Call Minute.) You can always buy Canadian banks, but he prefers US banks.

banks

(Market Call Minute.) You can always buy Canadian banks, but he prefers US banks.

banks
James Telfser

Partner & Portfolio Manager, Aventine Management ...

PricePrice
$77.200
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
CAE Inc(CAE-T) 

January 12, 2017

This has been a great turnaround story. A great business. He has exposure to the aerospace sector through another company, which he prefers. The chart on this looks great, and the valuation isn’t stretched by any means. If you don’t hold something in the aerospace sector, this would be a high-quality name to own. He doesn’t see a lot of risk in the near term.

transportation equip & components

This has been a great turnaround story. A great business. He has exposure to the aerospace sector through another company, which he prefers. The chart on this looks great, and the valuation isn’t stretched by any means. If you don’t hold something in the aerospace sector, this would be a high-quality name to own. He doesn’t see a lot of risk in the near term.

transportation equip & components
James Telfser

Partner & Portfolio Manager, Aventine Management ...

PricePrice
$18.660
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
COMMENT

This is in a bit of a decline. Media assets are not exactly thrilling assets to hold right now. There is not a lot of growth. Their dividend is pretty well covered, so it is pretty safe. You are just not going to get the multiple expansion. Think of this as just a dividend payer, and hope that earnings turn around. The dividend yield is going to keep a bit of a floor under the stock, so you don’t really have to worry about that. Hopefully the media cycle can turn around a little. He sees better income opportunities elsewhere. Dividend yield of 8.7% may be a little rich.

entertainment services

This is in a bit of a decline. Media assets are not exactly thrilling assets to hold right now. There is not a lot of growth. Their dividend is pretty well covered, so it is pretty safe. You are just not going to get the multiple expansion. Think of this as just a dividend payer, and hope that earnings turn around. The dividend yield is going to keep a bit of a floor under the stock, so you don’t really have to worry about that. Hopefully the media cycle can turn around a little. He sees better income opportunities elsewhere. Dividend yield of 8.7% may be a little rich.

entertainment services
James Telfser

Partner & Portfolio Manager, Aventine Management ...

PricePrice
$13.130
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
COMMENT

(Market Call Minute.) A long-time favourite, but he is no longer in it. Fundamentally it broke down. The 1st half is supposed to be their strongest, and it is not going to be.

Financial Services

(Market Call Minute.) A long-time favourite, but he is no longer in it. Fundamentally it broke down. The 1st half is supposed to be their strongest, and it is not going to be.

Financial Services
James Telfser

Partner & Portfolio Manager, Aventine Management ...

PricePrice
$10.220
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
BUY

(Market Call Minute.) You can’t bet against this company. One of these days they won’t find deals to do, but a very high quality company with lots of return on invested capital.

computer software/processing

(Market Call Minute.) You can’t bet against this company. One of these days they won’t find deals to do, but a very high quality company with lots of return on invested capital.

computer software/processing
James Telfser

Partner & Portfolio Manager, Aventine Management ...

PricePrice
$589.190
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
HOLD

An extremely interesting business. They do a lot of wholesale currency. Now they can get funds cheaper. They can go to the Fed or the central bank to get funds. Getting that kind of volume on currency may allow them to get some bigger clients. Just starting to prove the model out now. If you own, he would continue to Hold until you see the model prove out. He likes the business.

An extremely interesting business. They do a lot of wholesale currency. Now they can get funds cheaper. They can go to the Fed or the central bank to get funds. Getting that kind of volume on currency may allow them to get some bigger clients. Just starting to prove the model out now. If you own, he would continue to Hold until you see the model prove out. He likes the business.

0
James Telfser

Partner & Portfolio Manager, Aventine Management ...

PricePrice
$28.010
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
COMMENT

Of the 3 royalty businesses, this is the one that he would gravitate to if he were going to invest. It has a nice dividend yield which attracts investors. The one issue with these companies is finding good investments that are going to yield and feed that 10% dividend. In the last year, they have been divesting assets, but they have Mr. Lube as well as another real estate asset, which are good assets. He is on the sidelines until he sees something that they actually do. There are better places to get dividend growth.

other services

Of the 3 royalty businesses, this is the one that he would gravitate to if he were going to invest. It has a nice dividend yield which attracts investors. The one issue with these companies is finding good investments that are going to yield and feed that 10% dividend. In the last year, they have been divesting assets, but they have Mr. Lube as well as another real estate asset, which are good assets. He is on the sidelines until he sees something that they actually do. There are better places to get dividend growth.

other services
James Telfser

Partner & Portfolio Manager, Aventine Management ...

PricePrice
$2.590
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
COMMENT
ECN Capital(ECN-T) 

January 12, 2017

A recent spinoff from Element Financial. The stock has had a hard time getting anything going. However, the valuation of the business looks compelling and is something he is watching. It should improve if you believe in his thesis that the economy is improving in the US. This is a name that should do well in that environment. He is a bit cautious on this, but is following it.

Financial Services

A recent spinoff from Element Financial. The stock has had a hard time getting anything going. However, the valuation of the business looks compelling and is something he is watching. It should improve if you believe in his thesis that the economy is improving in the US. This is a name that should do well in that environment. He is a bit cautious on this, but is following it.

Financial Services
James Telfser

Partner & Portfolio Manager, Aventine Management ...

PricePrice
$3.210
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
HOLD
Knight Therapeutics(GUD-T) 

January 12, 2017

(Market Call Minute.) Great management team. Everybody loves this company. They have been executing and have been finding deals to do at a reasonable price. Probably good long term. Valuation is a little stretched though.

(Market Call Minute.) Great management team. Everybody loves this company. They have been executing and have been finding deals to do at a reasonable price. Probably good long term. Valuation is a little stretched though.

0
James Telfser

Partner & Portfolio Manager, Aventine Management ...

PricePrice
$10.370
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
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