Opinions by Alice Tsang | StockChase
251
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Apr 2011

Marquest Asset Management


Opinions by Alice Tsang


Signal Opinion Expert Chart

2013-09-13

BUY on WEAKNESS
Southern Pacific Resource (STP-T (Not List)

Rebounded significantly because of a very good update. Very strong team. Went into a heavy oil play, Senlac, to bring on production and were faced with a number of ramp up issues so the stock was severely punished. However, with yesterday’s update, it seems that they are starting to get back on track. Currently have 5 wells that are working so if they can continue to prove up all 12 wells, she believes stock will probably go back to the old range. Still a lot of risk in the story so she would wait for a pullback.

oil/gas
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $0.550
Owned: No

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2013-09-13

BUY
Suncor Energy Inc (SU-T)

Likes the story. Generating free cash flow and there is a lot more growth coming forward when they bottle (?) Firebag so she does see valuation going higher. Currently trading at about 5X cash flow. In a very strong oil environment, if you have a longer time horizon, she could see another 50% on this stock. (Host Comment: $42 is the near-term consensus looking out 12 months.)

integrated oils
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $37.350
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-13

PAST TOP PICK
Stillwater Mining Co. (SWC-N (Dead))

(A Top Pick August 31/12. Up 10.45%.) Sold her holdings at around the $15 level, because it had reached full valuation. However, when it touched down to about $10.50-$11, she bought it back. She is a big fan of the PGM space. Palladium as well as platinum has been outperforming copper and gold. This is still a Buy.

other mines
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $11.060
Owned: Yes

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2013-09-13

TOP PICK
Trinidad Drilling Ltd (TDG-T)

Has gone through a very heavy equipment build out in the last few years which is coming close to an end. Generating free cash flow and 2014 is going to be better. The new joint venture with Halliburton (HAL-N) will allow them to get into the global space. Now have contracts for Mexico and gives them opportunity to get into Saudi Arabia. Yield of 2% and feels there is a lot of room to increase distributions in the next 2 years.

oil/gas field services
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $10.000
Owned: Yes

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2013-09-13

BUY on WEAKNESS
Teck Resources Ltd. (B) (TECK.B-T)

Along with all the other base metal names, this rebounded very nicely. Over the long, long term, she thinks there is more upside to be had 1 to 3 years out. Very attractive buy slightly lower than its current level. Valuation is okay compared to its peers. Have done a great job of reducing debt so there is no a lot of risk.

precious metals
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $28.040
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-13

HOLD
Tourmaline Oil Corp (TOU-T)

Very well loved name and rightly so because they have one of the lowest costs in the sector. Still making money at current prices. However, this stock has always been expensive. If the view is positive on natural gas, then it will probably move up. However, AECO is currently trading at a huge discount compared to NYMEX and so in the upcoming quarter there may be a little bit of risk and disappointment on the cash flow front. Alternatively, Encana (ECA-T) would be an interesting gas play as they are looking at strategic alternatives to turn the company around. Trading roughly at about 4X cash flow and debt is reasonable at about 2X. There is talk about them eliminating their dividend and if that happens, this would be a case of Buy on Weakness.

oil/gas
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $42.750
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-13

BUY
Yamana Gold Inc. (YRI-T)

(Market Call Minute.) At $1300, they are still making a lot of money and generating free cash flow.

precious metals
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $10.840
Owned: Yes

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2013-06-21

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Gold. Drivers for gold is inflation, economy as well as fear factors. Hasn’t really seen the 3 factors at work over the last few years since it hit $1900. With the spike in interest rates, the cost of carry has gone up significantly. The fear is that if rates continue to rise and the economy and markets are doing better, what is the better pay off for gold investors and the holders of bullion. She thinks it would be more likely on the downside. She feels gold will be staying at around $1200. There is a seasonality trade but she is cautious on this metal.

Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2013-06-21

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Markets. Majority of the TSX is made up of resource stocks and aside from resources, we also have banks and pipelines, which have been very popular and have done very well. A lot of those stocks had reached technical inflection points where they where significantly overbought and valuation was more than fair so when all this is aligned and you have Bernanke indicating optimism on the economy front and yield tightening, it was a good time to take profits for investors. She views the pullback as a mild correction. On the resource side she feels there is still a little more downside to come. Copper is getting to a point where it is attractively valued. If it breaks the $3 point, that will create a very strong buying opportunity.

Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2013-06-21

TOP PICK
CASH (CASH)

10%-15% in cash would roughly be a good holding for a portfolio.

N/A
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $0.010
Owned: Yes

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2013-06-21

BUY
Conifex Timber Inc (CFF-T)

Likes the lumber industry. This company owns cutting rights to spruce timber and as well as a very attractive biomass project. Feels there are a lot of catalysts in this stock. Lumber prices have come off since Q1, largely due to the seasonal affect as well as news from China that they are less growthy. Over the long-term, she feels this is a fantastic holding. It is a slightly higher cost producer on the lumber side so she has adjusted the Q2 cash flow expectation somewhat. This would be a long-term Buy for her.

Forestry
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $7.560
Owned: Unknown

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2013-06-21

DON'T BUY
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF-N)

High cost producer needing $105 per ton in order to break even. At this time there are a lot more iron ore projects coming on and she would prefer a lower cost producer or a copper stock.

Mining
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $17.190
Owned: Unknown

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2013-06-21

BUY
Enerplus Corp (ERF-T)

(Market Call Minute.) This gives you exposure to gas as well as oil. Management has done a great job in their Marsalis as well as the Bakken area, so they are increasing the liquids play. They cut distribution and valuation is attractive. Gives you exposure to rising gas prices.

oil/gas
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $14.830
Owned: Unknown

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2013-06-21

TOP PICK
Essential Energy Services Ltd. (ESN-T)

Their current rigs are very suited for SAGD heavy oil drilling as well as some of the deep basin drilling. There is a lot of activity in this space right now so she expects utilization as well as day rates to increase over the next year. Trades at about 5X cash flow. Very clean balance sheet. Could be a takeout candidate. Dividend yield of about 4%.

oil/gas
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $2.680
Owned: Yes

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2013-06-21

BUY
Ithaca Energy Inc. (IAE-T (Dead))

Stock is cheap. Have lagged on their production guidance. Brought Athena on line a couple of years ago and the well behaviour disappointed the market. However, they are about to bring on Stella in 2014. There may be more ramp up issues that have to be faced. At a 1 to 2 times cash flow kind of valuation over the next year, 2014 earnings, she feels the stock justifies the downside risk. If Stella comes on, this could get back to the $2.25 range.

oil/gas
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $1.840
Owned: Unknown

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