Opinions by Alice Tsang | StockChase
251
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Apr 2011

Marquest Asset Management


Opinions by Alice Tsang


Signal Opinion Expert Chart
       

2013-09-13

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Resources. Feels there is a sense of calm in this space so she is sensing that we have hit the bottom in industrial metals in June/July. US has been performing very well and China and Europe also have been turning around. With this, she thinks demand is going to stay quite healthy, although you are going to have lots of supply coming on within copper and nickel space. We are at a point where we have lower volatility in this space and can start picking away at good stocks. Stocks are now so cheap that the pendulum has swung too far the other way.

Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2013-09-13

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Copper. In the short term, this year and next, there are supplies coming on. Copper has been depleting for a long time and it will be difficult for additional supplies to come on strongly. With stronger demand, we might be running into a deficit situation again, 3-5 years out. Currently trading at $3.20 and if we assume that we have a low copper price of $2.70-$3, a lot of companies are not going to be making money. However, when copper prices start to peek at about $3, copper levered companies can start generating cash flow. When we start seeing healthier copper prices, looking back it will seem current copper prices are very cheap.

Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2013-09-13

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Oil/Natural gas. Although China is slowing, you are still looking at a very strong power and energy demand. Longer-term, she feels oil has a chance to break out to $105 levels. That might put somewhat of a damper on economic fronts and she thinks we may have a longer way before getting to that point, maybe 2 years or so.

Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2013-09-13

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Gold. Expects it to go lower before going higher. Faces a few challenges, including a rising rate environment and Fed tapering. Consumer consumption as well as investment in the 2nd quarter of this year dropped about 12% as compared to 3% last year. Investment demand actually dropped 50% with consumer demand increasing about 60%. In the next few quarters, if you have less consumers coming into the market, she feels there will be a larger shortfall on the demand side. Because of this, she is very cautious on gold. We still don’t know where central banks interests are in terms of buying gold. She is very cautious on gold.

Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2013-09-13

HOLD
Bankers Petroleum (BNK-T (Dead))

Feels they are starting to turn around. In Albania and management went in with lots of expectations to recover an old oil field and subsequently found that some of the pipes and wells have a lot of erosion. They pretty well spent the last 2 years in repairing wells and are finally seeing a very good response. Stock is very cheap. Sitting on 6 to 8 billion barrels of oil, so she feels there is a lot of value in the stock.

oil/gas
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $3.790
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-13

TOP PICK
Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. (BXE-T)

Very impressive management team. Have been building a resource as well as production, pretty much organically. Through the years they have done very well. Lately, to add more confidence to the team, they’ve announced 2 JV deals that will help them fast track and develop some of the land. Roughly about 12 years drilling inventory and have about $300 million in JV now. Sees a lot more growth to come. Valuation is extremely attractive at about 3-4 times cash flow. Very conservative on the debt front. Can see the stock doubling from here. (Host comment: Street sentiment is that the stock will grow 40% in the next year.)

oil/gas
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $7.630
Owned: Yes

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2013-09-13

STRONG BUY
Conifex Timber Inc (CFF-T)

(Market Call Minute.) Have done a good job in optimizing the plant and there is better news to come.

Forestry
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $7.950
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-13

BUY
Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG-T)

Overall, she feels the debt coverage ratio is still fairly healthy. Thinks they have about 2X debt. Management had come to realize that there was concern, so they are looking to grow organically. Have a number of projects that can increase recoveries in the assets. Lots of inventory for years to come. 7.37% distribution.

oil/gas
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $37.590
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-13

COMMENT
Detour Gold (DGC-T)

Have started production. Feels that gold has to come down more before it goes up. Their average cash cost is about $800. If gold holds up above $1100-$1200 this is attractive.

precious metals
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $10.010
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-13

PARTIAL BUY
Enterprise Group (E-T)

Likes this. Valuation is very cheap. Company amalgamated a few different businesses and one of the most interesting one is trucks that heat pipes that go into the ground to prevent them from bending, which saves piping companies a lot of money. Demand for this is huge. Trading at very cheap valuations. If you are buying, stage your purchases with the hope that the stock comes down to $0.60. She could see this stock getting to $2. (Host comment: 2 analysts only, one showing $2 and the other $0.85.)

oil/gas
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $0.780
Owned: No

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2013-09-13

TOP PICK
Essential Energy Services Ltd. (ESN-T)

If you have a longer-term view, you could possibly see a double in the energy services’ space, because a lot of energy services stock has gone through a very tough 3-4 years. A lot have paid down debt and are close to completion in building their fleets. Generating free cash flow as well as very healthy margins, ranging from 20% to 30%. As a sector they are all very attractively valued as they hardly have any debt on their books. This is trading at about 4X cash flow and has a 4.43% dividend yield. Also, 2014 is going to be a very robust drilling year.

oil/gas
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $2.800
Owned: Yes

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2013-09-13

COMMENT
Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV-T)

Based on her outlook of gold, she would be cautious and would look for companies with lower valuations. Although this one has come down significantly, it is still trading at higher valuations than some of the gold producers. Based on her outlook of gold, she would be cautious and would look for companies with lower valuations. Although this one has come down significantly, it is still trading at higher valuations than some of the gold producers.

precious metals
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $44.170
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-13

BUY
Canyon Services Group (FRC-T (Dead))

(Market Call Minute.) Likes energy services. 2014 should be a good year.

oil/gas field services
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $11.970
Owned: Yes

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2013-09-13

BUY
Legacy Oil and Gas Inc. (LEG-T (Dead))

(Market Call Minute.) Very large portfolio. Have been doing a very good job in Turner Valley. Stock is very cheap at 2X cash flow.

oil/gas
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $6.560
Owned: Yes

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2013-09-13

BUY
Long Run Exploration (LRE-T (Dead))

Have purchased the old Galleon assets and have been doing a great job in the Montney area. Have a very large land package and also bought some Viking assets. Have been executing very well. The Montney position has very high liquid content. Likes the story. With the Galleon assets they own a lot of natural gas assets.

oil/gas
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $5.210
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-13

COMMENT
Lightstream Resources (LTS-T (Delisted)

13.1% dividend yield and she feels there is a chance that they might cut this because the capital program as well as the dividend comes out to about 130% of cash flow. Have a lot of debt on the books of about 3-3.5 times cash flow, which is high for her. If oil prices were to pull back, that payout ratio would be a lot more. However she doesn’t think the risk of a distribution cut is imminent and you might have a few more months, because management seems to believe that they can continue to use the line to fund operations.

oil/gas
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $7.310
Owned: No

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2013-09-13

PAST TOP PICK
Molycorp Inc (MCP-N (Now OTC))

(A Top Pick August 31/12. Down 41.80%.) This was a regretful choice because they had an SEC investigation, which she didn’t like, so she sold her holdings. In addition, rare earth prices are coming down dramatically. Also, have a very high debt level.

Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $6.480
Owned: No

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2013-09-13

HOLD
Major Drilling Group International Inc (MDI-T)

In the next 12 months or so, she thinks this might rebound from the current lower level. Valuations are quite cheap. Company has a very attractive balance sheet. However, about 30% of their major drilling business is coming from exploration on the Junior side. Stock has priced in somewhat with lower activities. 2.75% dividend and she doesn’t see any increases coming. (Host comment: Beta is 1.9 id est., 90% more volatile than the TSX.)

mining services
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $7.280
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-13

HOLD
Mart Resources Inc (MMT-T (Dead))

Operates in Nigeria, so there is obviously country risk. It is always cheap. Although she hasn’t looked at valuations for a while, it depends on the declines of the wells but these wells come on significantly strong.

oil/gas
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $1.430
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-13

BUY
Nevada Copper (NCU-T)

Recently had a permit on Pumpkin Hollow. Likes the story and the management team. The probable next step for the company would be to arrange funding for development of the underground resource. CapX is not stretched. Long-term, this is a great story.

Mining
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $2.290
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-13

DON'T BUY
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NDM-T)

Pretty hard to turn this one around. Very low grade gold/copper project and requires a very large CapX. Just discontinued their dividend.

precious metals
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $2.330
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-13

SELL
NovaGold Resources Inc (NG-T)

This is one of those projects that is lower in grade and requires very large spending capital. In the current environment, lots of the majors are cutting back on capital spending.

precious metals
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $2.890
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-13

DON'T BUY
New Gold Inc. (NGD-T)

Cheap, but she would hold off buying. The knocks in previous years have always been about growth projects so they went in and bought Blackwater and just recently, Rainy River. Both projects economics are not very attractive at $1300 gold. Because of a lack of growth profile, she would hold off. She is on the sidelines and wants to watch how the company executes.

precious metals
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $6.380
Owned: No

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2013-09-13

PAST TOP PICK
Prodigy Gold Inc (PDG-X (Dead))

(A Top Pick August 31/12. Up 54.84%.) This was acquired by Argonaut Gold (AR-T) so she sold her position because she was very cautious on gold.

Mining
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $0.960
Owned: No

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2013-09-13

HOLD
RB Energy (RBI-T (De-Liste)

(Market Call Minute.) Very good story. However, valuation is right up there. Roughly about 300 million if you include debt. When the project completely ramps they will generate about $30-$40 million so it is fairly valued at this point.

precious metals
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $0.475
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-13

PARTIAL SELL
Raging River Exploration (RRX-T)

Has done incredibly well. If you own, she would take some profits but this has always been a takeout play and the economics have been fantastic so she would go for the longer ride on the balance. They have a lot of drilling inventory. So it is not a 1 or 2 year story. The story will continue to do well. Technicals and valuations are topping their peers so she would take some profits. (Host Comment: 85% of the street has a Buy recommendation and the rest have a Hold. Consensus is north of $6 in the next 12 months.)

Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $5.440
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-13

COMMENT
San Gold Corporation (SGR.H-X (Delist)

At $1400-$1500 gold, they still have to develop their underground mine, which has been challenging. At current gold levels, investors are probably dumping the stock because prospects could get more difficult. You need gold prices to make a dramatic turn and she doesn’t expect this for the next 2 years anyway.

precious metals
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $0.160
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-13

HOLD
Semafo Inc (SMF-T)

Had been one of the great stories in the last 2-3 years however, they ran into a development issue because part of the ore they were working with was refractory so costs skyrocketed. In the last year they have discovered a very high-grade pot that they can actually use to blend with the current operations. This would increase the valuation and cash flow somewhat. 2% dividend.

precious metals
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $1.930
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-13

WATCH
Strategic Oil & Gas Ltd (SOG-X)

Likes this name quite well. Over the last 2-3 quarters, they have disappointed in terms of guidance. Very large land base and have only started putting pieces together. Over the longer-term, if execution turns out well, the stock will be rewarded with higher valuations. She is on the sideline and just watching their execution to see if management can deliver. (Host comment: Street consensus is that the stock will be $1.63 in the next 12 months.)

oil/gas
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $1.000
Owned: No

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2013-09-13

SELL
Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (SSL-T)

With the uncertainty of the gold space, she would tend to gravitate towards higher-quality names such as Franco-Nevada (FNV-T). The last couple of deals they have done have caused some investors to step back.

Mining
Alice Tsang

Portfolio Manager, Marquest Asset Management

Price: $5.710
Owned: Unknown

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