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Stock Opinions by Richard Fogler

COMMENT
They couldn’t finance their debt and went into bankruptcy but assets were worth $25 a share. He bought at $0.50 because he calculated it was worth $8.
investment companies / funds
HOLD
A Good company. When you look at market in the last few months it was ‘bla’ and stocks that use the stock market are also ‘bla’. Good dividend and an easy stock to own.
investment companies / funds
WAIT
The problem is that their costs are going up because of fuel. Economy is ok, but growth is not keeping pace with increasing cost of fuel. Also they have to pour money into their pension plan. The driver will be interest rates. If interest rates go up 1%, they can stop pouring money into pension plan.
Transportation
BUY
Likes the wireless a lot. They are all doing well. Canada is still behind the US in subscriber levels.
Cable
TOP PICK
Contrarian play. It’s a long-term (3-5 years) play. It is the largest oil tanker company in the world. Oil prices have nothing to do with their rates. What matters to them is the supply/demand balance and number of ships out there. New ships are coming on this year and next. Tangible book value of $65. He thinks it is a triple over 3 years.
Transportation & Environmental Services
TOP PICK
Record card member spending. Up 6% in the US. Up 20+% overseas. Credit card losses are collapsing. They customers are higher end consumers and pay off their bills normally. Earnings are booming.
investment companies / funds
TOP PICK
A new entry into the telephone business. Successful cable and local phone business. Introduced wireless business last year and subscribers are increasing (12.5k customer/month).
publishing / printing
COMMENT
China. Has been growing at 10.5% a year and believes this is going to fall back down to 7%-8% range and will have significant impact on Chinese demands for materials. 50% of demand for copper is going to China today. 100% of this demand in the last 6 months has been for inventory building and financial purposes and speculation. Inventory buildup and speculation is because banks have stopped lending to medium and small size businesses. Indications that speculation is stopping which could create real global reverberations.
Unknown
TOP PICK
Third largest real estate services company globally. Real estate brokerage, residential property managers (largest globally) and commercial property managers (2nd or 3rd largest globally.) 33% recurring revenue. Growing internally at 5%-6% a year. Can also do real estate “bolt on” acquisitions.
other services
TOP PICK
Does about half its business outside the US. Now stabilized. US government has sold its interest. Good management. Earned $0.50 on its core earning last year and is expected to earn more than that this year. Really cheap. Lots of growth possibilities.
banks
TOP PICK
Love the prospects. You get the train business for free and the aerospace business is booming.
transportation equip & components
DON'T BUY
Bought HBOS just before it went bankrupt in the credit crises. This got them into significant difficulty. Refocused. Good bank in retail banking and their insurance company are doing pretty well. HBOS is trying to get out of their mortgage problems and that is coming along. You better be a long-term investor on this one.
banks
BUY
Largest generic pharmaceutical company globally. Having a lot of trouble getting around $50. Great company and is not expensive. Earnings will come in around $5, trading at 10X earnings. Has a terrific outlook.
biotechnology / pharmaceutical
DON'T BUY
Large portion of demand is coming from China, Russia, Brazil and North America for auto related sectors and this area is not exactly booming. On a longer-term basis, he is reasonably positive, but on a short-term basis he is staying away because of what will be a problem from China. (See Comment on China.)
non-base metal mining
COMMENT
Having problems with their joint venture in Russia accessing vast oil reserves in the artic. TNK joint venture wants to do it but BP feel they have the technology and want to make a separate deal with state owned Rosneft. A tribunal has ruled against the share swap deal. Now in a stalemate.
integrated oils
Showing 31 to 45 of 47 entries