Opinions by James Hodgins | StockChase
880
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Oct 2010

Curvature Hedge Strategies


Opinions by James Hodgins


Signal Opinion Expert Chart

2010-10-07

TOP PICK
Garda World Security Corp. (GW-T (Dead))
Top Short A classic and successful “growth through acquisition” over past decade. Now at about 5X debt to EBITDA, a level where he doesn't think banks will fund any more funds for growth. Competitive business and margin for error is very small. (Short is roughly at $9.)
misc consumer products
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $9.120
Owned: Yes

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2010-10-07

TOP PICK
Liquidation World (LQW-T (Dead))
Believes consumers are trading down, looking for brand names at a reasonable price. New management from US with a similar type of business. Revamping all stores and same store sales growth in newer stores is roughly 20%. Looking for $10 million a year in EBITDA. Could easily be $2-$3 in 12 months.
specialty stores
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.920
Owned: Yes

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2010-10-07

TOP PICK
Molycorp Inc (MCP-N (Now OTC))
(Pairs Trade – Long this one and Short Avalon Rare Metals (AVL-T)). Thinks rare earth sector is in a bubble and will be trading much lower in 2 to 3 years. This company should be in full production next year while Avalon won't be in production for 4 or 5 years.
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $27.140
Owned: Yes

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2010-10-07

COMMENT
New Gold Inc. (NGD-T)
Many assets and a fantastic management team. Assets aren’t great but have significant leverage to gold prices. Issue in their Mexican operations that was inherited from a prior acquisition but thinks this is solvable.
precious metals
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $6.940
Owned: No

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2010-10-07

DON'T BUY
Painted Pony Energy (PONY-T)
Doesn't follow this closely, but in his quantitative strategy, he has a Short position in the name.
oil/gas
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $5.860
Owned: Yes

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2010-10-07

DON'T BUY
Questerre Energy (QEC-T)
Big resource in Utica Shale. Recent well results have not been positive. Talisman (TLM-T) says they are going to delay future testing and wells.
oil/gas
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.820
Owned: No

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2010-10-07

BUY
Reliable Energy (REL-X (Dead))
Bakken is a growing resource and Crescent Point (CPG-T) has been a serial acquirer of juniors in this area and holds a large amount of Reliable shares. Very attractive land packages and will grow production significantly over the next 6-12 months so could be an acquisition target.
oil/gas
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.380
Owned: Yes

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2010-10-07

DON'T BUY
Shore Gold Inc. (SGF-T)
Diamond project that will need hundreds of millions of dollars of CapX to bring it to bear. Doesn't see banks really ready to land on these types of projects any time soon. Good project.
precious metals
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.710
Owned: No

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2010-10-07

SELL
Southern Pacific Resource (STP-T (Not List)
Not been a fan of junior oil sands plays because it is such a scale business but this one has emerged as one of the better companies. However he is not a fan of oil at these prices. (He is Short the stock.)
oil/gas
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.200
Owned: Yes

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2010-10-07

HOLD
TorstarCorp (B) (TS.B-T)
Will be getting a nice chunk of change from their CTV stake, which essentially will clear up all their debt. Still a business that is in decline. Highly possible there could be a major increase in the dividend in the short run.
publishing/printing
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $12.820
Owned: No

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