Opinions by James Hodgins | StockChase
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James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Oct 2010

Curvature Hedge Strategies


Opinions by James Hodgins


Signal Opinion Expert Chart

2017-06-23

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Market. The US market is extremely overvalued. On a Price to Sales basis, it is more expensive than it was in 2000. That tells us that there is not a lot of expected return from here. He is not saying equities over the long-term can’t be good investments, but when you are entering at a point of such extreme overvaluation, like we are now, it is best to wait. Every 10 years there is at least one 30% drop-down in stocks, and we are now approaching 10 years in this bull market, and there hasn’t been much of a drawdown so far. We are well overdue for one. The extraordinary debt bubble that has been created since 2000, never really was sold. Debt to GDP ratios are extremely elevated. When that starts to unwind and we get to the other side of the credit cycle and liquidity is no longer being created into the economy, that is when you will see the big decline in equities. Any Long positions he has are special situations. He has a lot of Short positions.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-06-23

COMMENT
Badger Daylighting (BAD-T)

He doesn’t like the huge amount of management turn over. There are some questions around accounting and some of their franchisees. Has a very tiny Short position on this. There is more downside than upside on this.

oil/gas
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $25.920
Owned: Yes

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2017-06-23

TOP PICK
CASH (CASH)

For people who are comfortable Shorting, he would have no problem recommending Shorting a broader ETF of equity markets. Thinks we are in for about a 30% downdraft in equities over the next 12-18 months.

N/A
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.010
Owned: Yes

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2017-06-23

DON'T BUY
Callidus Capital Corp (CBL-T)

A high-risk lender. It is down a lot and offers a dividend yield, and they’ve been buying back tons and tons of stock. If there is any downturn in the economy, some of the protection that was offered on their loans from their parent company, has now expired. He would stay away.

Financial Services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $15.040
Owned: No

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2017-06-23

COMMENT
Concordia International Corp (CXR-T)

He is pessimistic on this. They recently hired another set of advisors to advise them on capital structure. That usually doesn’t end well for equity holders. Just had so much debt. The big UK acquisition they made really went south on them in a hurry. Expects debt holders are either going to want a massive equity dilution or for some kind of bankruptcy and restructuring. The equity is probably close to worthless.

Pharma & Healthcare
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.710
Owned: Unknown

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2017-06-23

COMMENT
EcoSynthetix Inc (ECO-T)

He is one of the largest shareholders in this. They now have 2 commercial mills up and running with their DuraBind products. They make the binding that goes into IKEA-like furniture. Not into IKEA yet, but there is a good chance they will be. IKEA has announced that they want all their bindings for furniture, flooring, etc. to be formaldehyde free by 2020. This company’s products are the best alternative out there. They have about 40% of their market cap in cash, so he sees very limited downside, but a lot of growth potential. There is a good chance they will be profitable by the end of the year.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $2.860
Owned: Yes

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2017-06-23

BUY
Supreme Pharmaceuticals Inc (FIRE-X)

Cannabis. They’ve had their cultivation license for a long time. There should be no problem. Seem to have a well-run operation. Management is fine. Once they get the sales license, there is some good upside in the stock. This is a reasonable time to be picking away at stocks like this.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.290
Owned: Yes

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2017-06-23

COMMENT
goeasy (GSY-T)

Subprime lending with an average duration of 3-6 months. Extremely high interest rates for people who can get loans from banks. He exited his position because the stock had such a huge run, and he thought it was getting fairly valued. There is still a lot of growth in the company. Because these are subprime loans and his views on Canadian housing, he would have a kind of negative 1-2 year view on this. He will be watching to see if the stock takes a plunge before he gets interested. He likes management.

merchandising/lodging
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $29.440
Owned: No

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2017-06-23

COMMENT
Home Capital Group (HCG-T)

There were some lax lending practices, and some prior relationships with mortgage brokers that had fudged the numbers. When the tide goes out on the Canadian housing market, there will be a lag factor of about 6 months on prices. When it goes, there will be a huge recession in Canada. He has Shorted this in the past.

investment companies/funds
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $18.610
Owned: No

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2017-06-23

COMMENT
Horizon North Logistics (HNL-T)

A maker of work camps for resource projects. Oil/gas was their biggest sector base, so it took a big decline. There are some infrastructure projects they can bid on, but there is a lot of competition. Prefers Macro Enterprises (MCR-X), where if you add up the cash and equipment it is worth about $3.

oil pipelines
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.340
Owned: Unknown

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2017-06-23

PAST TOP PICK
Jackpot Joy PL (JKPTF-5)

(A Top Pick March 29/16. Up 3%.) Online bingo. He still likes the company and owns a small amount.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $10.630
Owned: Yes

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2017-06-23

COMMENT
Greenspace Brands Inc (JTR-X)

He likes this a lot. They just reported earnings which were fine. This is not really an earnings story yet, it is a revenue growth story. Their strategy is to acquire organic food and beverage companies, and use their distribution relationships to gain shelf space in the organic food aisles.

food services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.570
Owned: Yes

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2017-06-23

TOP PICK
Klondex Mines Ltd (KDX-T)

He likes the gold sector, and thinks it will do well in the downturn. This company is the 4th Canadian domiciled company to enter the Russell 2000, so their investor base is going to increase dramatically. It has the most stable growth in the gold sector, and is trading at about a 20% discount. (Analysts’ price target is $6.13.)

precious metals
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $4.760
Owned: Yes

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2017-06-23

TOP PICK
Leucrotta Exploration Inc. (LXE-X)

He is quite bearish on the broader markets, but the sentiment in the energy sector in Canada has been so negative that he thinks it is undervalued. They have no debt and has 900 prime low-cost Montney drilling locations with significant infrastructure and only about 10% of it is dry gas. CEO owns about 30% of the stock. (Analysts’ price target is $3.25.)

oil/gas
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.850
Owned: Yes

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2017-06-23

PAST TOP PICK
Merus Labs International (MSL-T (Dead))

(A Top Pick March 29/16. Down 10%.) This is being taken over by an Italian private pharmaceutical company.

other services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.640
Owned: No

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2017-06-23

COMMENT
New Flyer Industries Inc. (NFI-T)

This has had a huge run. He is a little nervous about some of the Canadian companies that have big US businesses. The political environment is not that favourable, so he has a Short position on this.

income trust
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $55.760
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2017-06-23

COMMENT
Patient Home Monitoring (PHM-X)

This was taking over all the little sleep-aid companies in the US, and then ran into some issues, both with management and Medicare. Then it collapsed, but seemed to have turned around. They have some debt, but it is not a big problem. Sold off a couple of non-core businesses. Management has changed. He likes the new management team. Cash flow is growing again, so the debt is not a problem. He owns some of the debt, but not the equity.

other services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.475
Owned: Yes

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2017-06-23

COMMENT
Prometic Life Sciences Inc. (PLI-T)

This does blood plasma protein. It is something that has been very easy for them to get FDA approval for their treatments. However, revenues and cash flow just haven’t come as they promised in the past. Did a pretty dilutive equity raise recently, which didn’t go that well. He is Short this, and probably will stay Short until the stock from the equity deal gets cleaned up.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.780
Owned: Yes

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2017-06-23

COMMENT
TheScore Inc. (SCR-X)

As the growth slowed in the adoption of the app, the stock declined. However, the company still has plenty of cash and they are getting a big tax refund. Thinks they are going to be “break even” in the 3rd quarter this year. They’ve taken their user base of about 11 million people or so, and are starting to break into some really larger advertising accounts. Revenue growth has been quite nice, and he sees that continuing. They also have a good relation with Facebook (FB-Q) where they get a lot of traffic. Sees more upside than downside.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.185
Owned: Yes

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2017-06-23

DON'T BUY
Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ-T)

This doesn’t show up well on his screens. Earnings growth has really slowed, so he has a small Short on it. The railway ties are tied to oil/gas and infrastructure in Western Canada. He would stay away from this.

misc industrial products
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $43.740
Owned: Yes

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2017-06-23

COMMENT
StorageVault Canada (SVI-X)

Public storage. Fairly valued at this time. Management still has a lot of runway in terms of acquisitions.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $2.710
Owned: Unknown

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2017-06-23

PAST TOP PICK
Stillwater Mining Co. (SWC-N (Dead))

(A Top Pick March 29/16. Up 4%.) *Short* This was taken over by another company.

other mines
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $18.000
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2017-06-23

DON'T BUY
Yamana Gold Inc. (YRI-T)

There are concerns over the balance sheet as it has quite a bit of debt. They spun off a few mines into a new vehicle called Brio Gold, and got some cash in the door from that. Operationally, it has been an under performer for such a long period of time, and the stock has really tracked that. There are better places to be in gold. He is Short this against some of his Long positions. (See Top Picks.)

precious metals
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $3.530
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-12-22

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Market.The Dow Jones is within striking distance of $20,000. He typically focuses on small to mid-cap stocks, but does follow every index. The Dow is the oldest of the indices and most commonly followed by the public. However, it is only 30 stocks and is representative of the broader industrial economy. Since the election, stocks have been doing quite well. It wouldn’t surprise him if it hit $20,000, because sentiment around the US industrial economy is quite positive. Once Trump actually takes office, things are going to get a little harder. It’s easy to announce all these programs, but a little more difficult to implement them. From a seasonal perspective, he thinks there will be some reversion. There are a couple of drivers late in the year that typically have a major impact. January is usually a very good month for gold, and because they are so oversold and with tax loss selling, January could be a very nice month for the gold sector. Stocks that are really oversold that have good valuation and good fundamentals should do very well over the next 6 weeks. Tax loss selling is different this year because of the violent rotation of winners and losers late in the year.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2016-12-22

COMMENT
Alaris Royalty (AD-T)

Has a very small Short position, because their most recent quarter showed their growth had slowed down. He tends to invest in companies on the long side that have positive change, in short those that have negative change. Doesn’t think there is any problem with the dividend. A lot of their business is out west, and with oil prices increasing, this could see a bit of a rebound.

Financial Services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $23.700
Owned: Yes

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2016-12-22

HOLD
Avigilon Corp (AVO-T)

He has historically been short this and still has a tiny bit but has been covering it. They didn’t have very efficient use of capital. The main negative though, has been on the cost side, which seems to be under control now.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $12.260
Owned: Yes

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2016-12-22

COMMENT
Artis Real Estate Investment Trust (AX.UN-T)

A well-managed company, largely based in Western Canada. Real estate, particularly commercial real estate, in Western Canada has not done as well. That may come back as the energy market comes back, but this is an interest sensitive stock, and if the market feels rates will rise over the next year, which he thinks is the case, REITs generally will underperform. However, this one looks pretty cheap.

property mngmnt/investment
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $12.430
Owned: Unknown

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2016-12-22

COMMENT
Chorus Aviation Inc (CHR-T)

They have an agreement with Air Canada (AC-T), so it kind of precludes them from being a take-out candidate. Just did their 1st lease deal prior to a Fairfax investment with them. This is positive, as it diversifies them away from Air Canada. It is quite a competitive market, and the stock had a really nice run up over the last couple of weeks, so he sold his position.

Transportation & Environmental Services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $7.180
Owned: No

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2016-12-22

COMMENT
Clearwater Seafoods Inc.  (CLR-T)

He likes this quite a bit. It has been a victim of tax loss selling. They missed the last quarter, and said the next quarter is also going to be soft. They instituted a new clam boat, and it was so efficient that they actually pressured their own pricing, and margins came down. They are also stimulating demand and gaining customers, because of the lower prices. That price pressure is going to last only one more quarter. Heading into Q2 and the back half of next year, he is quite bullish on this. The company has the greatest quota for clams and mussels in Canada.

Financial Services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $11.240
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-12-22

COMMENT
Corby Spirit and Wine (B) (CSW.B-T)

This has been a core holding for his fund since inception. They have a very nice tendency to not only pay a regular dividend, but in years when they don’t make growth acquisitions, they typically also make a very nice special dividend at year-end. They made a nice growth acquisition this year. With their relationship with Pernod, they have very nice distributorship to the US and the UK.

breweries/beverages
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $20.125
Owned: Yes

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2016-12-22

COMMENT
Knight Therapeutics (GUD-T)

Jonathan Goodman, former founder and CEO of Paladin labs, sold Paladin to Endo Therapeutics in the US. Endo has since come under a lot of pressure, and this company possibly has the opportunity to buy back the Canadian assets at a much cheaper price than they sold it. Just did a recent $10 equity raise. Knight has about $5 a share in cash, so it has a lot of firepower to be picking up distressed assets from the Valeants of the world, Endo, and possibly even Concordia. He likes this quite a bit here.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $10.370
Owned: Unknown

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2016-12-22

COMMENT
Ithaca Energy Inc. (IAE-T (Dead))

This is a North Sea play. Their biggest field, Stella, is expected to come online in January. Assuming it comes online as planned, the stock looks very cheap, trading at about 4.5X debt adjusted cash flow. Its peers are trading more at 6-8 times. Expect there will be some re-rating once the Stella field comes online.

oil/gas
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.530
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-12-22

PAST TOP PICK
Innova Gaming Group (IGG-T (Dead))

(A Top Pick Dec 23/15. Up 4.94%.) This was spun out of Amaya Gaming. It does not depend on online gaming. They do video lottery terminals in both bingo halls in Ontario and Québec, and Legion halls in a number of US states. The stock is very cheap and he still likes this quite a bit.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.630
Owned: Yes

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2016-12-22

HOLD
InterRent REIT (IIP.UN-T)

This is a well-run company, but isn’t particularly cheap among the smaller cap REITs.

property mngmnt/investment
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $7.380
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-12-22

TOP PICK
Greenspace Brands Inc (JTR-X)

Everyone can see how the shelf space in the big Canadian grocery chains has been growing significantly for organic. This company is a distributor for organic brands, both into those grocery stores, and also into Starbucks (SBUX-Q). Thinks there is significant, significant upside, and has this pegged at something like 140% revenue growth next year. (Analysts’ price target is $2.08.)

food services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.190
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-12-22

COMMENT
Kelt Exploration (KEL-T)

This was founded by the former management team of Celtic Energy, that was sold a number of years ago, for a nice profit for all the investors. They have quite a nice position in the Montney. He likes this name. On a go forward basis, this has a ton of upside in their drill program.

oil/gas
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $6.690
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-12-22

COMMENT
MCAN Mortgage Corp (MKP-T)

Basically paying out all of its income as dividend, so you are not going to get growth, just dividend. Thinks the dividend is relatively safe as long as the Canadian housing market holds up. If you like growth in the sector, he likes Equity Financial (EQI-T). Their lending book growth was something like 178% last quarter.

finance/leasing
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $14.400
Owned: Unknown

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2016-12-22

TOP PICK
Merus Labs International (MSL-T (Dead))

This has been a Top Pick in the past, and he has been wrong, but with the end of tax loss selling there should be a change. They are getting the benefit of a technology transfer for manufacturing of one of their main drugs, Sintrom, from the US in US$ costs into Europe in Euro costs. That is going to take place over the next 2-3 quarters and will save them about $8 million a year. They can reinvest those savings. Their next targeted acquisitions are for drugs with an organic growth profile, something they have lacked in the past. Trading at 3X cash flow, and their closest competitor trades at 10X cash flow. There has been recent insider buying by both the CEO and a couple of board members. (Analysts’ price target is $1.84.)

other services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.080
Owned: Yes

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2016-12-22

DON'T BUY
Neptune Tech & Bioresource (NEPT-T)

One of those companies that has been on the cusp for nearly a decade. They make krill oil for omega-3 supplements. They don’t have anything particularly patented that other operators can’t also produce. The supplement market is highly competitive. He has a small Short position on this.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.300
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-12-22

PAST TOP PICK
Nevsun Resources (NSU-T)

(A Top Pick Dec 23/15. Up 22.39%.) Part of the recent gain is since the election. A base metal producer and developer. Their historical mine Bisha in Eritrea, did quite well. They then made an acquisition of a copper exploration play in Europe, so it has become a little riskier as they are going to spend most of their cash developing this new copper project. The upside is there if you think this procyclical rally in base metals will continue.

precious metals
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $4.260
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-12-22

COMMENT
Prometic Life Sciences Inc. (PLI-T)

Their main product is plasminogen, a kind of artificial blood plasma replacement. They’ve had great success in getting FDA approval, but not great success in delivering on revenues and cash flows. He has a Short on this, but it is starting to get down to levels where it is getting to be less attractive as a Short position.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.670
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-12-22

COMMENT
Polaris Minerals Corp. (PLS-T)

He likes this. Kind of a direct play on infrastructure spending in the US, but has not done as well recently. A lot of their business is in California. They produce cement and rock, and ship it from the west coast in Canada, down to California, which is actually cheaper than trucking it or by rail from the Northwestern US. If you think Mr. Trump’s infrastructure plan is going to move forward, and there are going to be all kinds of roads and bridges built, this is an interesting play.

other mines
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.250
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-12-22

TOP PICK
TheScore Inc. (SCR-X)

The CEO, who owns a significant amount of stock, has been purchasing even more recently. The end of tax loss selling plus insider buying and a cheap stock. You can’t find fast-growing app or software stocks that are trading at 1.5X sales. There is a significant amount of long term upside in this company. (Analysts’ price target is $0.55.)

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.215
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-12-22

COMMENT
Stella-Jones Inc. (SJ-T)

A name he had been Short but has now covered. Thinks it has an interesting future assuming all the infrastructure spending the government is talking about does occur. They do a lot of construction in camps out west, and thinks they will be a benefit of pipeline construction and infrastructure spending.

misc industrial products
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $44.150
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-12-22

COMMENT
Sandvine Corp. (SVC-T (Dead))

This provides software for deep packet inspection, allowing Cable Cos and Internet providers to either throttle back on certain types of packets and information, and to dial it up for others. They’ve had a bit of a rough year because of missed quarters. However, they have something like $1.40 a share in cash. The 4th quarter is typically their strongest, so he is considering purchasing this. Telcos spending seems to be seasonal and tends to peak in the 4th quarter. He sees a potential trade opportunity on the Long side.

computer software/processing
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $2.660
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-12-22

PAST TOP PICK
TeraGo Inc. (TGO-T)

(A Top Pick Dec 23/15. Down 11.76%.) They have 2 main businesses. 1.) A basic connectivity business for Internet services etc. into apartment and office buildings, and 2) a Data Centre type of business, where they host Cloud services, which is growing quite nicely. Took a hit because the original connectivity business had slowed more than expected, but thinks the growth in the data centre business on a go forward basis offsets that, and the stock is quite cheap. Likes the new CEO, so has been buying more recently.

Telecommunications
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $4.500
Owned: Yes

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2016-12-22

DON'T BUY
The Stars Group Inc (TSGI-T)

The rumoured takeover by the former CEO, Mr. Baazov has now officially gone away. He has a small Short position, and a somewhat negative view on the poker market. They have growth opportunities in expanding into sports betting and casinos, but those are pretty competitive markets, especially in London and Europe. This is fully valued.

Business Services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $19.140
Owned: Yes

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2016-12-22

SELL
Yamana Gold Inc. (YRI-T)

If you want to recognize the tax loss, tomorrow is the last day. This is not his favourite name in the gold space. However, he thinks it is oversold and getting to a valuation level that is somewhat attractive. They have constantly missed on the cost side of their production. He tends to like gold companies that are growing their ounce base, and this one is no longer in that position. He is short on this. If he held this, he would switch to Mag Silver (MAG-T).

precious metals
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $3.380
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Markets.  When volatility enters the market place for equities, it means you have increased dispersion.  Not all stocks are correlated in one direction or the other.  With market neutral investing you are on the right side of the market.  Until the last month it was pretty much a straight ride up except for the Brexit dip.  November 8th is a wild card and the Fed meeting in December is an even larger wild card.  Canadian foreign ownership limits on housing will definitely have an impact.  A housing slump in Canada could come from an increase in rates and a recession on the demand side.  Frankly we need a pullback on the housing market.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Banks.  The banking system here is more regulated than in the US.  We have the big five.  The risk is that consumer debt levels are at ratios where the US was in ‘05/’06.  There is more risk over the Canadian banks than the US ones.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.020
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

BUY
Aurora Cannabis (ACB-T)

His favourite in the space.  They are being permitted to build the largest grow op in the world.  You are going to see some significant growth.  There are lots of catalysts in the space.  These guys have the best growth potential.  They purchased a clinic in Ontario and they intend to be vertically integrated.  They are the first one to do that strategy.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $2.240
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

BUY
Altagas Ltd (ALA-T)

They made a large acquisition that he thinks will be accretive in the long term.  It makes their earnings more stable.  As stability of earnings increases, their ability increase dividends on a reliable basis also increases.

oil/gas
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $34.960
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

DON'T BUY
Avigilon Corp (AVO-T)

It is getting to the point where he will start covering his short position.  Management has not delivered on what they promised.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $8.400
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

TOP PICK
Corby Spirit and Wine (A) (CSW.A-T)

The dividend yield is 3%, but they pay special dividends each year.  Last year it made the yield a total of over 6% yield.  They have been growing through their wine business in Canada and just launched Wiser’s in the US.  He thinks their parent may take them out.

breweries/beverages
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $23.110
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

DON'T BUY
Concordia International Corp (CXR-T)

It is a call option on whether the debt holders will start declaring bankruptcy.  The strategy had a lot of merit.  They made a mistake by taking more debt for their UK acquisition when the financing was not fully lined up for it.  Brexit caused the company to decline, but the debt was in US$.  It is crushing the company.

Pharma & Healthcare
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $5.250
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

DON'T BUY
DirectCash Payments Inc (DCI-T (Dead))

In the process of being taken over.  He had been short when it was announced.  The ATM business is shrinking in Canada and around the world.  It is an arbitrage situation at this point.  He would not recommend buying more here.  It is not a great business and there are not good chances of another bid here.

other services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $19.010
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

TOP PICK
EcoSynthetix Inc (ECO-T)

They make an organic binding resin without the use of formaldehyde.  A lot of companies are demanding hardwood floors and furniture be made without formaldehyde. 

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $2.400
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

PAST TOP PICK
Equity Financial Holdings (EQI-T)

(Top Pick May 26/15, Up 5.84%) There was some activist involvement and it went bad and the stock fell to below book value.  Others in the space are between 2-3 times book value.  He has a short position.

Financial Services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $10.000
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

DON'T BUY
Firm Capital Mortgage Investment (FC-T)

A mortgage corp.  They invest in mortgages, both commercial and residential.  It is a very well run company that has a nice dividend.  There is a potential for them to be impacted by the new mortgage rules if the housing market slows down. 

Financial Services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $13.880
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

BUY
Knight Therapeutics (GUD-T)

There is $6 in cash so your down side is very limited.  The upside is that they make nicely accretive acquisitions. 

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $8.930
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

PAST TOP PICK
Innova Gaming Group (IGG-T (Dead))

(Top Pick May 26/15, Down 64.64%) You can be right with the fundamentals but if it is in the wrong hands you could be wrong.  Their growth in terms of number of units has been skyrocketing.  The fundamentals are fantastic.  It trades at 2 times cash flow.  He would look at buying more here.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.410
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

BUY
Greenspace Brands Inc (JTR-X)

They made two recent acquisitions and have good relationships with purchases at L-T and EMP-T.  He thinks their shelf space will continue and grow.

food services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.180
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

WATCH
Melcor Developments Ltd (MRD-T)

He has been short.  It is getting to a valuation where he is thinking about covering.  Their problem was they were based in Calgary.  It is starting to look interesting on a price to book basis.  He is not quite sold on it yet.  Their earnings are not going to turn around any time yet.  He would not buy it, but he is covering shorts. 

Developers (Real Estate)
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $12.800
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

TOP PICK
Merus Labs International (MSL-T (Dead))

They did not take on all the debt of some others.  It is in Europe.  When US drugs come off patent, it is a patent cliff.  In Europe it is different.  It tends to be about 30-40% because it is more highly regulated to begin with.  Their earnings are more stable.  He likes the management team who have been buying stock recently.  They changed from just buying legacy drugs to buying growth drugs.  He thinks this growth strategy will cause a re-rating of the stock.

other services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.260
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

DON'T BUY
Nevsun Resources (NSU-T)

They acquired a copper mine in Serbia.  He owned it because it was trading at cash for the longest time.  Now it is a development play and he does not like copper that much.  He got out, but would not short it.

precious metals
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $3.860
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

DON'T BUY
Prometic Life Sciences Inc. (PLI-T)

Blood plasma protein.  It is low risk in terms of getting approval by the FDA on their products.  But he has shorted it because it shows up poorly in one of his models in that it is expensive.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $3.210
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

SELL
Rogers Communcations (B) (RCI.B-T)

The quarter was fine.  The wireless side was fine and there is a windfall from the Blue Jays side.  He is concerned about the cable side.  They are hitting an inflexion point regarding cord cutting.  Stay away because the of the cable side.

Cable
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $53.690
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

BUY
TheScore Inc. (SCR-X)

The core business has slow growth but they got to a critical mass were the advertising growth is significant.  He is looking at purchasing it again.  The valuation is sustaining them.  Fantasy sports people love it. 

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.225
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

BUY
SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. (SNC-T)

He likes it.  They guided down but he thinks the intrinsic value related to the 407 and an activist investor will both benefit them.  At some point you will see SNC monetize their investment in the 407 and unlock value in it.  He thinks the stock is worth closer to $70.

contractors
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $52.680
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

WATCH
StorageVault Canada (SVI-X)

They are trying to roll up like Public Storage in the States.  Per capita, Canadians only occupy half the storage space that Americans do.  It could be a play on negative housing.  He has gotten out of it.  They will have to raise more money soon.  He may get back in again after that.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.240
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

PAST TOP PICK
TeraGo Inc. (TGO-T)

(Top Pick May 26/15, Down 20.96%) The legacy business is shrinking, but generating nice cash flow and the data center business has some upside in cloud services.  He still likes it.  There is a potential for an activist situation in this one.

Telecommunications
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $4.750
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

WEAK BUY
TSO3 Inc (TOS-T)

It has been a 10 year overnight success.  Sterilizing against super bugs is becoming a bigger and bigger issue.  The demand could be quite significant be the catalyst it needs.  It could be a takeover candidate as they become more native in hospitals.

medical services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $3.330
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

DON'T BUY
The Stars Group Inc (TSGI-T)

He had been short before these takeover rumours -- long positions before that.  They have taken on a lot of debt.  If growth comes through, then they will have the ability to pay down debt and the stock will be a winner, but he is not convinced there will be growth.  It is a good brand, but online poker is flat to down.

Business Services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $18.540
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

DON'T BUY
Vecima Networks Inc. (VCM-T)

It is a well run company.  He got out of it.  They paid out a lot of special dividends and the stock did well, but he got out because most of the catalysts are out of it.

Telecommunications
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $8.340
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-10-20

SHORT
Wajax Corp (WJX-T)

They are adamant they cannot cut the dividend.  He thinks they should because the cash flow does not cover it.  It is not on his list of safe dividend payers.  He is short this stock.

merchandising/lodging
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $15.050
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Market. This rally, in large measure, is featuring beaten up stocks coming back as well as Short coverings. You can see this both in the equity and the commodity futures markets. This is the fastest shift on record in terms of oil futures from a speculative perspective over the last 6 weeks. As the speculative short position has gone to a long position, both in equities and in commodities, we have seen the worst performing stocks and commodities over the last few years. Over the last 6-7 weeks in this rally, they have been the best performing companies. That is typically not a sign of a bull market. In a bull market, you want the leaders to lead. Another key factor is that companies who have large hedge funds and are most Long have underperformed companies that are most Short by about 70%. It reminds him of the summer and fall of 2007, when there was the quant crash. Thinks we are seeing a shift from a bull market to a bear market. The bigger problem is the debt situation globally. 

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

BUY on WEAKNESS
Alimentation Couche-Tard (A) (ATD.A-T)

An incredibly well run company. They really are experts at integrating acquisitions. They’ve had big tailwinds over the last 18-24 months, in that as the price of gasoline has fallen steadily, their margins increase and people spend more money on other stuff. Have also cross sold some of their food products. Trading at the high end of its valuation range, but on any pullback this is a core holding.

food stores
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $58.560
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

HOLD
Avigilon Corp (AVO-T)

Still has a small Short on this, but thinks most of the optimistic growth analysts’ projections are out of the stock. There are more realistic projections now.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $14.570
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

COMMENT
Bankers Petroleum (BNK-T (Dead))

Being acquired at $2.20 a share, but the stock price is at around $1.85. The difference is because there is very little visibility into the buyer, and their ability to come up with the cash is still in doubt. Too many moving parts.

oil/gas
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.850
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

PAST TOP PICK
Canam Group Inc. (CAM-T (Dead))

(A Top Pick March 25/15. Up 3.75%.) This was a play on market share in that a lot of their business was in the US. He still likes this.

metal fabricators
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $12.980
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

WATCH
Cipher Pharmeuticals (CPH-T)

A little bit early. They have built up their sales force pretty significantly over the last 6 months, so costs are higher and margins have come down quite a bit. That will continue over the next 2-3 quarters until the drugs start to gain traction. He would look to Buy once the new drug starts to gain traction.

Healthcare
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $6.100
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

COMMENT
Claude Resources (CRJ-T (Dead))

He likes this company. Expects there will be more takeovers of companies that have mines in Canada because the cost in Cdn$ is quite beneficial when you are mining gold and silver for US$.

precious metals
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.370
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

DON'T BUY
Concordia International Corp (CXR-T)

Took on roughly 7 turns of debt, i.e. 7X their annual EBITDA, to make their most recent acquisition. They are also seeing some problems in the US where they raised the price of their largest drug Donatel to something like 500%. That is likely to come under political pressure. Had been Short this, but it is getting to a level where it is more of a “stay away”.

Pharma & Healthcare
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $30.100
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

COMMENT
DirectCash Payments Inc (DCI-T (Dead))

Has a class action suit, but you will see that any time a stock has a big decline. He is Short this. Doesn’t think the dividend is sustainable. People are not using ATMs for cash much anymore. The company is taking on a lot of debt. Any time he sees a dividend that is north of 8%, that tells him it is probably not sustainable. Dividend yield of 12%.

other services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $12.300
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

COMMENT
EcoSynthetix Inc (ECO-T)

Manufactures an environmentally friendly synthetic wood product, i.e., it doesn’t have formaldehyde. There are a lot of companies that are looking to eco-synthetic products to replace older products that have formaldehyde. Trading below its cash. Have about $1.50 per share in cash on their balance sheet. He is still in the process of evaluating this.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.150
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

COMMENT
Fairfax Financial (FFH-T)

Likes this a lot. Has a lot of respect for management. The company has been cashed up to take advantage of the economic problems coming. Thinks it will be one of the safe haven Longs over the next 18-24 months.

insurance
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $714.000
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

BUY on WEAKNESS
Gibson Energy (GEI-T)

A little early to get back into the mid-streamers. Expects there will be some volume declines. This is a company he is going to be taking a look at. If he is right and the price of oil falls again, some of the smaller producers are going to have to go bankrupt. He would be a buyer on the next dip. A very well-run company. Once volumes come down to a base level, which he thinks they will in the summer, he expects the company will be a Buy. They won’t have a problem if oil prices go down, just if volumes go down.

pipelines
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $17.640
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

COMMENT
High Liner Foods (HLF-T)

He is Short a little on this and Long Clearwater Seafoods (CLR-T) on the other side. They”ve had a couple of poor quarters in that their margins are shrinking and the cost of seafood has gone up as well as having some negative currency impact.

Consumer Products
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $14.640
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

COMMENT
American Hotel Income Properties (HOT.UN-T)

He likes this a lot. All of their properties are in the US, and most of them are contracted with rail lines. They provide dark rooms for rail employees to sleep in. A very stable client base and very stable cash flows. Management did a really smart thing. When the Cdn$ fell below $.70, they allowed unit holders to get their dividends in either US or Cdn dollars.

investment companies/funds
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $10.430
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

STRONG BUY
Innova Gaming Group (IGG-T (Dead))

Ridiculously cheap. Stock trades at about 1.5X next year’s EBITDA. This has been dragged down by the whole Amaya (AYA-T) type of situation. They don’t do online gaming, they make video lottery terminals, mostly in bingo halls in Ontario and Québec and in lodges in the US. A portion of their gate goes to charity. OLG loves this company, and are planning to continue to roll it out. Thinks there is going to be about a 20% growth this year. They have now got approval to try it out in sports bars in Missouri. Should be trading at least 2 or 3 times where it is now.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.500
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

TOP PICK
Jackpot Joy PL (JKPTF-5)

This got caught up in the Amaya (AYA-T) selloff, although the insider trading situation has nothing to do with this company. They have effectively put all or part of the business up for sale, and when he does a “sum of the parts” analysis, he can’t get a scenario where it is going to be less than $16-$18.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $10.230
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

BUY on WEAKNESS
Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC-T)

They have a habit of finding huge outsized diamonds. The diamond market right now is in an oversupply situation, because of the mines in Russia. Doesn’t think that should last too much longer. He would wait for a pullback. Has owned this in the past.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $2.740
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

TOP PICK
Merus Labs International (MSL-T (Dead))

This owns a portfolio of drugs in Europe. Because the European market is already very highly regulated, they don’t have the same issues with pricing that others have. Very stable margins. They just raised $25 million at $1.90 through sub receipts. When that closes, they can be swapped for shares in the stock will go back to $1.90. There is the short term upside, but longer-term he loves the growth profile.

other services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.820
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

COMMENT
Neulion (NLN-T)

Does the live streaming of sports events. Stock took a big hit last summer when NHL announced they were switching. They are continuing to sign up new clients. Announced a share buyback. Stock has performed quite well in the last couple of months. Thinks it has growth prospects ahead.

communications/media
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.150
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

BUY
Premier Gold Mines (PG-T)

(Market Call Minute.) He likes this a lot. One of their main assets is in Canada, so there are good margins. There is a lot of growth here.

metal mines
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $3.250
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

COMMENT
Sherritt International Corp. (S-T)

(Market Call Minute.) Took on too much debt. He is Short this.

integrated mines
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.820
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

PAST TOP PICK
TheScore Inc. (SCR-X)

(A Top Pick March 25/15. Down 56.82%.) This has the 2nd leading sports app in North America, next to ESPN. They got caught up in the daily fantasy business, using their app users as a platform. Had believed business was going to do very well. Still likes it a lot. They can use the platform of app users for other products.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.270
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

SELL
Secure Energy Services (SES-T)

(Market Call Minute.) A very well-run company, but given his view on oil, this would be a Sell. He is looking to Short this.

oil/gas
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $8.240
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

TOP PICK
Stillwater Mining Co. (SWC-N (Dead))

*SHORT* This had bottomed at $5 in January, and has now doubled in 6 weeks for no real reason, other than its Short covering. The biggest usage for palladium is in automobiles. Auto inventories are at record highs relative to sales, so the demand for palladium is going to fall. This stock is very overvalued. Also, its mines are in the US and he feels the foreign currency is going to be a disadvantage to them. Other platinum/palladium mines are in South Africa that has a very weak currency.

other mines
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $10.910
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

COMMENT
Symbility Solutions (SY-X)

Sells workflow software into the insurance space. They lost their biggest customer about 2 years ago, but is now starting to turn the corner. Insurance is a very stable business, even in a bear market, so he thinks this will continue to do well.

Business Services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.280
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

PAST TOP PICK
TeraGo Inc. (TGO-T)

(A Top Pick March 25/15. Down 37 4%.) Provides high-speed Internet service as well as media storage for high-speed data and network virtualization. The storage business is growing quite fast. Ridiculously undervalued. Probably a really strong take over candidate.

Telecommunications
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $4.880
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2016-03-29

COMMENT
Canopy Growth Corp. (WEED-T)

There was a lot of hype around the marijuana stocks during the last election. However, they are pricing in a much higher usage of medical marijuana than actually takes place. Although medical marijuana will grow, the stock is pricing in growth that is unlikely to occur. He is looking at this from the Short side.

agriculture
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $2.550
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2015-12-23

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Markets. 2015 was another win for growth stocks. This probably has more to do with smaller caps versus larger caps. The larger cap growth names have held up pretty well, but if you look under the surface of the market, small-cap names, particularly in the commodity space in Canada, were terrible this year. As we near the end of tax loss selling, he expects we will see a pretty sharp bounce, which we are actually starting to see today. However, underlying fundamentals are still baseline negative. Today he wants to talk about the small-cap January effect, and will try to pick some of the more oversold names for a 6 week trade. Some of the small-cap names have been thrown out with the bathwater, and he has been picking up some names that have solid fundamentals and growth. This could include some that have a rollup acquisition strategy, where he thinks there are opportunities.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

Must be logged in to use chart

2015-12-23

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Gold? Thinks we are starting to see a bit of a turn in the US$, and that would be positive for the golds. His largest gold holding is, Tahoe (THO-T).

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

Must be logged in to use chart

2015-12-23

COMMENT
Badger Daylighting (BAD-T)

The issue they had this year was that when oil/gas exploration fell off so dramatically. A lot of their investors were in for the dividend yield, and it started to look like it would be dicey if they could keep the dividend where it was. Had been Short the name because he had thought the perception of the company was that it was safe because of their other business lines outside of oil and gas. Has covered his Shorts recently. If you think the energy rally is real, then he would take a look at it here. A solid management team. Valuation has come down to a level where it is reasonably attractive.

oil/gas
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $24.580
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2015-12-23

COMMENT
D-Box Technologies (DBO-T)

Tried to buy this about a year ago, but it is pretty illiquid. A lot of theatres have a section roped off where the seats shake and vibrate through this company’s technology. A lot of upside was ahead of the Star Wars release. There is growth here and with the Star Wars he expects their numbers will be pretty good this quarter. A little too small for him, but he is going to take another look at this.

Consumer Products
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.375
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2015-12-23

PAST TOP PICK
Equity Financial Holdings (EQI-T)

(A Top Pick Dec 22/14. Down 16.58%.) Still likes this. The whole space has done poorly. This one has probably hung in better than most of the others. They are not in Alberta. Actually overcapitalized now, so only has about 2 turns of debt compared to the average of about 7X debt to asset ratio. There is a lot of room to grow for this. He has been Short on other names, so is actually up in total.

Financial Services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $8.000
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2015-12-23

PAST TOP PICK
goeasy (GSY-T)

(A Top Pick Dec 22/14. Down 0.9%.) 2 business lines including Rent-A-Center stores and the bigger and faster growing part is financial. Picked up a lot of market share because Cash Store Financial went bankrupt and they were able to take over some of those locations. They do 3-6 months short term, very high interest lending. Still likes this.

merchandising/lodging
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $18.400
Owned: Yes

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2015-12-23

DON'T BUY
GuestLogix (GXI-T (Delisted)

Owned this a few years ago when it had some revenue momentum and were getting lots of contracts. Sold it when it seemed like the contracts they were signing weren’t delivering the type of profitability that management had expected. The company is up for sale, but there is debt and an investigation into their financing. He would stay away.

Business Services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.120
Owned: No

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2015-12-23

COMMENT
Home Capital Group (HCG-T)

On a 10-15 year basis, this has been a fantastic performer. Got a little overvalued when it was close to $50 and 3X BV. The ROE has fallen. Had an issue mid year where they fired a bunch of their mortgage brokers, and this is the main reason why this fell. Had been Short this on a valuation basis. Thinks the overhang is almost done. Covered most if not all of his short positions.

investment companies/funds
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $27.110
Owned: Unknown

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2015-12-23

TOP PICK
Innova Gaming Group (IGG-T (Dead))

A new management team came in. This company has nothing to do with online gambling. They manufacture video lottery terminals that get put into bingo halls, and are now doing a trial to put them in bars in Missouri. In about 30% of the business bingo halls in Ontario, and that is growing every year. OLG loves this product. It derives traffic and keeps people there longer, and they spend more money on food/alcohol.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.620
Owned: Yes

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2015-12-23

COMMENT
Jackpot Joy PL (JKPTF-5)

Got hit with a Short- Sellers report. Likes the online bingo market, and feels there were a lot of inaccuracies in that report, but this is going to overhang the stock for a while. (See Top Picks.)

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $9.140
Owned: No

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2015-12-23

COMMENT
Greenspace Brands Inc (JTR-X)

Acquiring Central Roast which has a lot of organic type products that they are getting into Canadian grocery stores, a real growth market. Management has a deep relationship with some of the big grocery chains in Canada. Thinks they are going to grow something like over 100% next year with this acquisition. On top of that there is north of 60% organic growth.

food services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.000
Owned: Yes

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2015-12-23

COMMENT
Kinross Gold (K-T)

Has been a bit of a disaster. Costs have gone up so much and finding higher grade projects is tougher and tougher.

precious metals
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $2.640
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2015-12-23

PAST TOP PICK
Leucrotta Exploration Inc. (LXE-X)

(A Top Pick Dec 22/14. Down 41.09%.) Had thought this was oversold from tax loss selling and it had a pretty good run into January. Thinks it will have a good run through January again. Low cost kind of development, which he likes. He would buy this for a trade again.

oil/gas
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.800
Owned: Yes

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2015-12-23

COMMENT
Mogo Finance Technology Inc. (MOGO-T)

A name where there was a lot of growth priced in on the IPO. The company is still growing, but not profitably yet. However, it is so oversold and we are starting to see the bounce. That is probably the end of tax loss selling and you could see a nice trade in it here.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $3.050
Owned: Unknown

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2015-12-23

COMMENT
Merus Labs International (MSL-T (Dead))

This is his preference in healthcare. On value versus growth, this is really a deep value kind of stock. Was trading at $3 not long ago, and thinks it could easily get back to that over the next year. Trading at about 4.5 or 5 times EBITDA.

other services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.980
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2015-12-23

TOP PICK
Nevsun Resources (NSU-T)

Base metals have not been a fabulous place to be and the stock declined quite sharply. Roughly 85% of the market cap of the company is in cash and 96% is in net working capital, so you are basically getting the mine for free. No debt. A very profitable, low cost mine. Right now they are producing mostly copper and some gold as a by-product for cash cost of roughly $1.30. Transitioning the mine to high grade zinc zone over the next year, and the supply/demand outlook for zinc is actually better than copper in his view. Feels a sharp relief rally will occur as tax loss selling peaks in the next few days. Dividend yield of 6.34%.

precious metals
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $3.660
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2015-12-23

COMMENT
NexGen Energy (NXE-T)

This will depend a lot on the sentiment in the uranium space. Has held up incredibly well. On his watch list to Buy. Recently did a financing at $0.64, which he did not participate in. Wants to see some more delineation of their resource.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.680
Owned: No

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2015-12-23

COMMENT
NYX Gaming Group Ltd (NYX-X)

Pretty cautious on the online gaming group. This is a kind of rollup of 2 companies out of Amaya (AYA-T), a software maker that drives casino games for Amaya and other companies. A very competitive space and they have disappointed on hitting their target. They have a revenue guarantee from Amaya that is backstopping it, which lasts about another 2 years. Once that guarantee comes off, he questions if there are other customers strong enough to hold up that end.

James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $2.610
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart
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