Opinions by James Hodgins | StockChase
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James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Oct 2010

Curvature Hedge Strategies


Opinions by James Hodgins


Signal Opinion Expert Chart

2010-10-07

COMMENT
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 
Natural gas prices. Shale revolution and horizontal drilling has made the question of price recovery open-ended. There are massive shale reserves in North America. Might be some shorter-term spikes but the supply is there to meet them. Expect we are in the range of $3-$7 longer-term.
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.020
Owned: Unknown

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2010-10-07

DON'T BUY
Arise Technologies Corporation (APV-T (Dead))
Has always liked management but it has been a serial disappointer. Had to do a massive dilution in the share count earlier this year. Will also be beholden to subsidies for green energy (solar energy) in Germany.
other services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.215
Owned: No

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2010-10-07

TOP PICK
Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (AVL-T)
Top Short (Pairs Trade – Long Molycorp (MCP-N) and Short this one.) Thinks rare earth sector is in a bubble and will be trading much lower in 2 to 3 years. This company won’t be in production for 4-5 years while Molycorp should be in full production next year.
metal mines
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $3.400
Owned: Yes

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2010-10-07

SELL
Bankers Petroleum (BNK-T (Dead))
Just cut production guidance and shares are trading down significantly. Likely indicative of a trend change in their operations. If you own, take profits. (He is Short the stock.)
oil/gas
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $7.100
Owned: Yes

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2010-10-07

BUY
Carfinco Financial Group (CFN-T (Dead))
Financing business of major automakers has essentially gone away so this is a potential acquisition target in addition to being able to grow their loan book organically with quite nice profitability.
Financial Services
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $5.810
Owned: Yes

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2010-10-07

DON'T BUY
Equinox MineralsLtd. (EQN-T (Dead))
Big resource in Africa where there is a lot of political risks. First Quantum (FM-T) has a stake in this company but doubt if they would be interested in taking it over right now as they have their own problems.
metal mines
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $5.660
Owned: No

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2010-10-07

TOP PICK
Garda World Security Corp. (GW-T (Dead))
Top Short A classic and successful “growth through acquisition” over past decade. Now at about 5X debt to EBITDA, a level where he doesn't think banks will fund any more funds for growth. Competitive business and margin for error is very small. (Short is roughly at $9.)
misc consumer products
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $9.120
Owned: Yes

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2010-10-07

TOP PICK
Liquidation World (LQW-T (Dead))
Believes consumers are trading down, looking for brand names at a reasonable price. New management from US with a similar type of business. Revamping all stores and same store sales growth in newer stores is roughly 20%. Looking for $10 million a year in EBITDA. Could easily be $2-$3 in 12 months.
specialty stores
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.920
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2010-10-07

TOP PICK
Molycorp Inc (MCP-N (Now OTC))
(Pairs Trade – Long this one and Short Avalon Rare Metals (AVL-T)). Thinks rare earth sector is in a bubble and will be trading much lower in 2 to 3 years. This company should be in full production next year while Avalon won't be in production for 4 or 5 years.
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $27.140
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2010-10-07

COMMENT
New Gold Inc. (NGD-T)
Many assets and a fantastic management team. Assets aren’t great but have significant leverage to gold prices. Issue in their Mexican operations that was inherited from a prior acquisition but thinks this is solvable.
precious metals
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $6.940
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2010-10-07

DON'T BUY
Painted Pony Energy (PONY-T)
Doesn't follow this closely, but in his quantitative strategy, he has a Short position in the name.
oil/gas
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $5.860
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2010-10-07

DON'T BUY
Questerre Energy (QEC-T)
Big resource in Utica Shale. Recent well results have not been positive. Talisman (TLM-T) says they are going to delay future testing and wells.
oil/gas
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.820
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2010-10-07

BUY
Reliable Energy (REL-X (Dead))
Bakken is a growing resource and Crescent Point (CPG-T) has been a serial acquirer of juniors in this area and holds a large amount of Reliable shares. Very attractive land packages and will grow production significantly over the next 6-12 months so could be an acquisition target.
oil/gas
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.380
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2010-10-07

DON'T BUY
Shore Gold Inc. (SGF-T)
Diamond project that will need hundreds of millions of dollars of CapX to bring it to bear. Doesn't see banks really ready to land on these types of projects any time soon. Good project.
precious metals
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $0.710
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2010-10-07

SELL
Southern Pacific Resource (STP-T (Not List)
Not been a fan of junior oil sands plays because it is such a scale business but this one has emerged as one of the better companies. However he is not a fan of oil at these prices. (He is Short the stock.)
oil/gas
James Hodgins

Chief Investment Officer, Curvature Hedge Strategies

Price: $1.200
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
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