Eric Nuttall
Member since: Mar '10
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager at
Ninepoint Partners
Ninepoint Partners
1846 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 21%) He sees a supply shortage in global oil. The call on oil is only going to grow. They have 60+ years of reserves, and they are ready to go down in the Gulf Coast. Free cash generation is positive.
(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 58%) It's been lagging in the past months. He has been adding to it. They have drilled high quality wells in the property they acquired from Cenovus. There is a good potential to increase free cashflow in the next couple years.
(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 43%) The oil fundamentals are stronger now than the start of the year. Looking at the multiple compression that happened in the sector, he expects the value of the stock to double once the macro environment normalizes.
A new name for them. It has sold off along with the other oil and gas companies, despite lower risk levels. They cut their dividend by 71%. They can triple dividend and still have free cashflow to grow production. (Analysts’ price target is $6.04)
Trading at a 25% free cashflow yield. They can increase their dividend next year. He expects it to be a consolidator to add more inventory depth. He sees up to 50% upside if oil prices rise. (Analysts’ price target is $3.25)
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COMMENT
COMMENT
August 6, 2020
We're on the cusp of a new bull market for oil? Once we emerge from the Covid destruction, we'll exit this year about 4% below prior conditions. It's all about supply. The last 5 years have revolved around US shale. But due to shutting of external sources of funding and investor apathy, shale companies are aiming to grow at most 5% a year. The world relies on US shale, so the future is very different from the past. Saudi remains with a budget deficit on the price of oil. We can get back to $60 oil next year.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
We're on the cusp of a new bull market for oil? Once we emerge from the Covid destruction, we'll exit this year about 4% below prior conditions. It's all about supply. The last 5 years have revolved around US shale. But due to shutting of external sources of funding and investor apathy, shale companies are aiming to grow at most 5% a year. The world relies on US shale, so the future is very different from the past. Saudi remains with a budget deficit on the price of oil. We can get back to $60 oil next year.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 6, 2020
The biggest opportunities are in Canadian small and mid cap names? Going forward, investors don't want growth of capital. They want dividends and share buybacks. Low debt levels and low corporate decline rates let them do this. Canada shines in this area. Already seeing capital flow back to Canada. Conditions in a few months will be tighter. His fund is 100% invested in Canada right now.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe biggest opportunities are in Canadian small and mid cap names? Going forward, investors don't want growth of capital. They want dividends and share buybacks. Low debt levels and low corporate decline rates let them do this. Canada shines in this area. Already seeing capital flow back to Canada. Conditions in a few months will be tighter. His fund is 100% invested in Canada right now.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 6, 2020
Right now, you want to focus on oil over gas, and in the small to mid cap space. He's always struggled with owning this. Highly leveraged. There are better opportunities. It's going to be a laggard. For now, you want to be in name brand companies.
Show full opinionHide full opinionRight now, you want to focus on oil over gas, and in the small to mid cap space. He's always struggled with owning this. Highly leveraged. There are better opportunities. It's going to be a laggard. For now, you want to be in name brand companies.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 6, 2020
Liked their ability to buy back shares from free cash flow. But then management decided to chase growth, so he divested. Decent gas exposure. Its recovery is still too low to attract investor interest. Better names to own.
Show full opinionHide full opinionLiked their ability to buy back shares from free cash flow. But then management decided to chase growth, so he divested. Decent gas exposure. Its recovery is still too low to attract investor interest. Better names to own.
BUY
BUY
August 6, 2020
It remains a top holding for him. The company is cheaply valued relative to asset quality and balance sheet strength. He thinks it's too cheap to last and the sector will probably consolidate. He expects it to be acquired at a meaningful premium.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt remains a top holding for him. The company is cheaply valued relative to asset quality and balance sheet strength. He thinks it's too cheap to last and the sector will probably consolidate. He expects it to be acquired at a meaningful premium.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 6, 2020
They recently declared bankruptcy. There is no equity value remaining in this company.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey recently declared bankruptcy. There is no equity value remaining in this company.
Energy
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 6, 2020
A small cap, medium heavy producer. Because they own older fields, operating costs are higher. Banks cut their lines by 30%. There is free cashflow and there is liquidity. However, he would look elsewhere.
Show full opinionHide full opinionA small cap, medium heavy producer. Because they own older fields, operating costs are higher. Banks cut their lines by 30%. There is free cashflow and there is liquidity. However, he would look elsewhere.
oil/gas
WATCH
WATCH
August 6, 2020
They pushed their debt to come to term in 2022. An ultra-high torque and leverage stock. If there is an oil shortage and oil price rises to $60, it can be a great play.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey pushed their debt to come to term in 2022. An ultra-high torque and leverage stock. If there is an oil shortage and oil price rises to $60, it can be a great play.
oil/gas
BUY
BUY
August 6, 2020
He just bought some more this morning. Because of the sell-off, you can buy stocks that have a potential to double. You get natural gas and liquid gas. The quality of assets, balance sheet strength and free cashflow is good.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe just bought some more this morning. Because of the sell-off, you can buy stocks that have a potential to double. You get natural gas and liquid gas. The quality of assets, balance sheet strength and free cashflow is good.
oil/gas
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
August 6, 2020
There was a fear that Q2 results were going to be bad. In his opinion, Q2 is irrelevant. Outlook for next year is positive. He thinks there are better opportunities but it is a good name too.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThere was a fear that Q2 results were going to be bad. In his opinion, Q2 is irrelevant. Outlook for next year is positive. He thinks there are better opportunities but it is a good name too.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 6, 2020
He wouldn't own this name. There are too many assets globally and it is over leveraged. It's hard to maintain focus and cost controls globally. He would prefer a more focused company.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe wouldn't own this name. There are too many assets globally and it is over leveraged. It's hard to maintain focus and cost controls globally. He would prefer a more focused company.
Healthcare
BUY
BUY
August 6, 2020
He is bullish on oil. There are 11 names in the fund, focusing on generating outsized returns. Average name has 40% free cashflow at $60 oil.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe is bullish on oil. There are 11 names in the fund, focusing on generating outsized returns. Average name has 40% free cashflow at $60 oil.
Energy
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 6, 2020
(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 21%) He sees a supply shortage in global oil. The call on oil is only going to grow. They have 60+ years of reserves, and they are ready to go down in the Gulf Coast. Free cash generation is positive.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 21%) He sees a supply shortage in global oil. The call on oil is only going to grow. They have 60+ years of reserves, and they are ready to go down in the Gulf Coast. Free cash generation is positive.
oil/gas
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 6, 2020
(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 58%) It's been lagging in the past months. He has been adding to it. They have drilled high quality wells in the property they acquired from Cenovus. There is a good potential to increase free cashflow in the next couple years.
(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 58%) It's been lagging in the past months. He has been adding to it. They have drilled high quality wells in the property they acquired from Cenovus. There is a good potential to increase free cashflow in the next couple years.
oil/gas
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
August 6, 2020
(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 43%) The oil fundamentals are stronger now than the start of the year. Looking at the multiple compression that happened in the sector, he expects the value of the stock to double once the macro environment normalizes.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 43%) The oil fundamentals are stronger now than the start of the year. Looking at the multiple compression that happened in the sector, he expects the value of the stock to double once the macro environment normalizes.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
August 6, 2020
He held it for a number of years. With the current backdrop, they are doing as well as they can. Management is good. They had to sell some of their assets for less than he thought it was worth. The valuation is compelling but there are opportunities in the near-term.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe held it for a number of years. With the current backdrop, they are doing as well as they can. Management is good. They had to sell some of their assets for less than he thought it was worth. The valuation is compelling but there are opportunities in the near-term.
oil/gas
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 6, 2020
A new name for them. It has sold off along with the other oil and gas companies, despite lower risk levels. They cut their dividend by 71%. They can triple dividend and still have free cashflow to grow production. (Analysts’ price target is $6.04)
Show full opinionHide full opinionA new name for them. It has sold off along with the other oil and gas companies, despite lower risk levels. They cut their dividend by 71%. They can triple dividend and still have free cashflow to grow production. (Analysts’ price target is $6.04)
oil/gas
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 6, 2020
Trading at a 25% free cashflow yield. They can increase their dividend next year. He expects it to be a consolidator to add more inventory depth. He sees up to 50% upside if oil prices rise. (Analysts’ price target is $3.25)
Show full opinionHide full opinionTrading at a 25% free cashflow yield. They can increase their dividend next year. He expects it to be a consolidator to add more inventory depth. He sees up to 50% upside if oil prices rise. (Analysts’ price target is $3.25)
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
August 6, 2020
You get good focus on bread and butter plays with low financial leverage. There is upside because of multiple compression. Balance sheet is strong and it is undervalued right now. (Analysts’ price target is $2.63)
Show full opinionHide full opinionYou get good focus on bread and butter plays with low financial leverage. There is upside because of multiple compression. Balance sheet is strong and it is undervalued right now. (Analysts’ price target is $2.63)
oil/gas
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 19, 2020
Market Outlook He thinks oil demand is back to almost 90% of pre-pandemic levels. Although he thinks it may not be quite that high, it is the path upwards that he likes. There was a 5 million barrel per day surplus over the past month, which he thinks is not as bad as the market thinks. Traffic is going back up in major metropolitan areas, and flying is showing an inflection as well. By the end of this year he thinks demand will be close to pre-pandemic levels. There are many energy stocks still down 60-70% so he thinks there is good support for a recovery in energy stock prices. The market is near not as loose as he thinks the markets believes.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMarket Outlook He thinks oil demand is back to almost 90% of pre-pandemic levels. Although he thinks it may not be quite that high, it is the path upwards that he likes. There was a 5 million barrel per day surplus over the past month, which he thinks is not as bad as the market thinks. Traffic is going back up in major metropolitan areas, and flying is showing an inflection as well. By the end of this year he thinks demand will be close to pre-pandemic levels. There are many energy stocks still down 60-70% so he thinks there is good support for a recovery in energy stock prices. The market is near not as loose as he thinks the markets believes.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 19, 2020
Down 95% since recommended? This is a volatile sector and his recommendations have changed over the past year. There were many bearish issues that caused the stock to decline. Under $60 WTI they do not generate enough cash flow. They also have $450 million debt repayment due in February 2021. He can't bring himself to buy this now. There are better opportunities out there.
Show full opinionHide full opinionDown 95% since recommended? This is a volatile sector and his recommendations have changed over the past year. There were many bearish issues that caused the stock to decline. Under $60 WTI they do not generate enough cash flow. They also have $450 million debt repayment due in February 2021. He can't bring himself to buy this now. There are better opportunities out there.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 19, 2020
It is regarded as lower risk, despite a slightly higher geopolitical risk. They are sitting on $300 million in cash. They are looking for an acquisition outside of their core, so he is a little uneasy on where they are going. There are better names to own first.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt is regarded as lower risk, despite a slightly higher geopolitical risk. They are sitting on $300 million in cash. They are looking for an acquisition outside of their core, so he is a little uneasy on where they are going. There are better names to own first.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 19, 2020
VET vs OVV? They are both stocks he would not own. OVV participated well on expected index buying in the US, but they are no longer able to attract US investors based on their share price. It is a non-starter for sure. VET cut the dividend and they changed management, but it will be a long road. They can't sell assets to help reduce debt and they can't raise the dividend. They are in far too many geographical areas and he thinks they have lost focus.
VET vs OVV? They are both stocks he would not own. OVV participated well on expected index buying in the US, but they are no longer able to attract US investors based on their share price. It is a non-starter for sure. VET cut the dividend and they changed management, but it will be a long road. They can't sell assets to help reduce debt and they can't raise the dividend. They are in far too many geographical areas and he thinks they have lost focus.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 19, 2020
VET vs OVV? They are both stocks he would not own. OVV participated well on expected index buying in the US, but they are no longer able to attract US investors based on their share price. It is a non-starter for sure. VET cut the dividend and they changed management, but it will be a long road. They can't sell assets to help reduce debt and they can't raise the dividend. They are in far too many geographical areas and he thinks they have lost focus.
VET vs OVV? They are both stocks he would not own. OVV participated well on expected index buying in the US, but they are no longer able to attract US investors based on their share price. It is a non-starter for sure. VET cut the dividend and they changed management, but it will be a long road. They can't sell assets to help reduce debt and they can't raise the dividend. They are in far too many geographical areas and he thinks they have lost focus.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 19, 2020
70% revenue from condensate? Oil prices has recently rallied due to OPEC agreement extensions and a recovery in demand. Associated natural gas production has begin to rise again and natural gas prices have fallen. He thinks a large oil sands producer using condensate may take advantage of this company and consider it as an acquisition target and a re-rate candidate.
Show full opinionHide full opinion70% revenue from condensate? Oil prices has recently rallied due to OPEC agreement extensions and a recovery in demand. Associated natural gas production has begin to rise again and natural gas prices have fallen. He thinks a large oil sands producer using condensate may take advantage of this company and consider it as an acquisition target and a re-rate candidate.
Energy
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
June 19, 2020
Speculative buy you thought? If you are bullish on oil, it can be a good buy. He sold it at $0.34 so he could buy others that did not have the same financial risk. He bought it back at $0.40 before the rally up. He sold it after making 100% in a week. There will be a time and a price that it will make sense, but he is not sharing when that will be again.
Show full opinionHide full opinionSpeculative buy you thought? If you are bullish on oil, it can be a good buy. He sold it at $0.34 so he could buy others that did not have the same financial risk. He bought it back at $0.40 before the rally up. He sold it after making 100% in a week. There will be a time and a price that it will make sense, but he is not sharing when that will be again.
oil/gas
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 19, 2020
(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 24%) Still one of only a dozen core holdings he has. They are sitting on a world-class asset. They are roughly 55% hedged on production this year at $59 oil. They really need about $44 oil to be successful. They are levered, but have refinanced and it is not due until 2024. He is a bull on oil, thinking we will get back to $50 by year end.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 24%) Still one of only a dozen core holdings he has. They are sitting on a world-class asset. They are roughly 55% hedged on production this year at $59 oil. They really need about $44 oil to be successful. They are levered, but have refinanced and it is not due until 2024. He is a bull on oil, thinking we will get back to $50 by year end.
oil/gas
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 19, 2020
(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 44%) It has been a roller-coaster ride and he is still one of the top three holders of the stock. When oil returns to $60, sometime next year they will be strong again. They could be a candidate for consolidation in the space. If you are bullish on condensate pricing, there could be some great upside here. He continues to hold it as a large core holding.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 44%) It has been a roller-coaster ride and he is still one of the top three holders of the stock. When oil returns to $60, sometime next year they will be strong again. They could be a candidate for consolidation in the space. If you are bullish on condensate pricing, there could be some great upside here. He continues to hold it as a large core holding.
oil/gas
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
June 19, 2020
(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 44%) They monetized assets last year and started this year with a good balance sheet. At $50 oil prices it trades at 2.8 times cash flow -- historically it traded as high as 8 times. He thinks oil will get back to these levels by end-2020. It remains a large holding in his fund.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Aug 30/19, Down 44%) They monetized assets last year and started this year with a good balance sheet. At $50 oil prices it trades at 2.8 times cash flow -- historically it traded as high as 8 times. He thinks oil will get back to these levels by end-2020. It remains a large holding in his fund.
oil/gas
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 19, 2020
It is tough to knock CNQ. The Saudis are rumoured to be divesting their holdings. They have lots of liquidity. He does not own it as it is so large within the energy index. He thinks he would do better owning names that are not already known.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt is tough to knock CNQ. The Saudis are rumoured to be divesting their holdings. They have lots of liquidity. He does not own it as it is so large within the energy index. He thinks he would do better owning names that are not already known.
oil/gas
HOLD
HOLD
June 19, 2020
This is a top name holding for him. Once the banks decide on subsidies for some of the companies, there should be some uncertainty that comes out of the share price. They are trading at an attractive level. At $50 or higher oil, the balance sheet is strong and their production decline rate is falling. They are capturing CO2 to work towards becoming net zero emitting.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThis is a top name holding for him. Once the banks decide on subsidies for some of the companies, there should be some uncertainty that comes out of the share price. They are trading at an attractive level. At $50 or higher oil, the balance sheet is strong and their production decline rate is falling. They are capturing CO2 to work towards becoming net zero emitting.
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 19, 2020
Average down? He has owned it a couple times in the past. He is not bullish on Canadian natural gas, so does not own it now. They are 60% in natural gas and there are summer pricing risk on the commodity. It will take time for a new COO to get set. At $50 oil it is 4 times cash flow -- he thinks there are even more enticing opportunities out there. He would not average down.
Show full opinionHide full opinionAverage down? He has owned it a couple times in the past. He is not bullish on Canadian natural gas, so does not own it now. They are 60% in natural gas and there are summer pricing risk on the commodity. It will take time for a new COO to get set. At $50 oil it is 4 times cash flow -- he thinks there are even more enticing opportunities out there. He would not average down.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 19, 2020
Light production? It struggles for relevance in the market as a medium to medium-light oil producer. They cut the dividend to zero to de-lever. They purchased old oil fields, but with the higher operating costs and higher risk for environmental liability he would not own this.
Show full opinionHide full opinionLight production? It struggles for relevance in the market as a medium to medium-light oil producer. They cut the dividend to zero to de-lever. They purchased old oil fields, but with the higher operating costs and higher risk for environmental liability he would not own this.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
June 19, 2020
Capital issues? He would avoid this as he owns no service companies right now. Producers have been marginal with cash flow to survive, but there has been no surplus cash flow to increase drilling activity. CEU sells chemicals to US producers and have been forced to cut prices on their product. He thinks the market is in a new normal, focusing on debt re-payment. This will place a longer term cap on activity levels.
Show full opinionHide full opinionCapital issues? He would avoid this as he owns no service companies right now. Producers have been marginal with cash flow to survive, but there has been no surplus cash flow to increase drilling activity. CEU sells chemicals to US producers and have been forced to cut prices on their product. He thinks the market is in a new normal, focusing on debt re-payment. This will place a longer term cap on activity levels.
oil/gas field services
WAIT
WAIT
June 19, 2020
They are the largest natural gas producer in North America. He is bearish on short term natural gas prices, so he would not be recommending it right now. He would rather own mid-cap oil companies right now.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey are the largest natural gas producer in North America. He is bearish on short term natural gas prices, so he would not be recommending it right now. He would rather own mid-cap oil companies right now.
oil/gas