Eric Nuttall
Member since: Mar '10
Partner & Senior Portfolio Manager at
Ninepoint Partners
Ninepoint Partners
1744 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
(A Top Pick Mar 08/19, Up 4%) A modest win. They sold and bought it back in December. One of two US names that could attract investor interest. He liked the acquisition at 4 times cash flow, which allowed them to begin paying a dividend. Their drilling in the Permian can grow by 10% a year.
(A Top Pick Mar 08/19, Down 22%) They stubbed their toe and he sold out about mid-year. Their inventory turned out not to be as deep as they had advertised. Within $50 oil prices they can generate 10% free cash flow going forward.
(A Top Pick Mar 08/19, Up 33%) There has been a massive buyer in the market for this stock. He sold out in December and just re-bought at around current price levels. It has direct exposure to heavy oil price strengthening. Crude by rail rates are increasing and is allowing heavy oil inventory to begin dropping. They are using their free cash flow to pay down debt rapidly. They have 68 years of production inventory. He thinks they will become a take out target by a large oil player soon. The stock price could go to $9-$10.
A new holding for them. It trades at 2.4 times cash flow with a 24% cash flow yield. A very good prospect for a potential acquisition. It needs $60 oil prices to generate that cash flow. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $3.25)
The balance sheet is better now that they have rolled out debt to 2027. It trades at 3.5 times cash flow and offers a 28% free cash flow yield. They are 50% hedged at $76 Canadian oil pricing. Good exposure to the Eagleford play as well along with Canadian heavy oil. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $2.88)
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COMMENT
COMMENT
February 12, 2020
Market Outlook They were the number 1 Energy Fund in the world according to Morningstar last year. Energy stocks are down 15% this month on the coronavirus fear. Supply of oil is falling faster than loss in demand due to China's reduced consumption, he believes. The second half of the year will begin a multi-year bull run for oil. OPEC is providing cover to move to another supply cut this year he says. Supply growth in the US is dropping sharply and he might expect to see a net decline in production there next year. This will be the first year in the last five years, where US supply growth will be less than total global demand growth -- this means barrels outside of the US will be in demand. A supply crunch is coming in the upcoming years he concludes.
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Market Outlook They were the number 1 Energy Fund in the world according to Morningstar last year. Energy stocks are down 15% this month on the coronavirus fear. Supply of oil is falling faster than loss in demand due to China's reduced consumption, he believes. The second half of the year will begin a multi-year bull run for oil. OPEC is providing cover to move to another supply cut this year he says. Supply growth in the US is dropping sharply and he might expect to see a net decline in production there next year. This will be the first year in the last five years, where US supply growth will be less than total global demand growth -- this means barrels outside of the US will be in demand. A supply crunch is coming in the upcoming years he concludes.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 12, 2020
A natural gas producer with a growing liquids portfolio. It is simply too small for investors and their debt at 5 times cash flow is just not competitive. He would not own this one.
Show full opinionHide full opinionA natural gas producer with a growing liquids portfolio. It is simply too small for investors and their debt at 5 times cash flow is just not competitive. He would not own this one.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 12, 2020
They are the poster child for the woes of the AECo market. They have debt to cash flow of 4 times. They are maintaining production. We are over 70% through winter and we have seen demand down 14% in North America this season. The outlook is bleak. Natural gas stocks are a play on weather and he does not see any prospects in this space at this time. He is looking towards Canadian oil plays instead.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey are the poster child for the woes of the AECo market. They have debt to cash flow of 4 times. They are maintaining production. We are over 70% through winter and we have seen demand down 14% in North America this season. The outlook is bleak. Natural gas stocks are a play on weather and he does not see any prospects in this space at this time. He is looking towards Canadian oil plays instead.
oil/gas
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 12, 2020
Free Cash Flows Several companies are posting great free cash flow -- up to 40% of market cap. Once we get past the Corona virus scare, global demand will grow again. We will see WTI go back to $60/bbl. Valuations will rise sharply. You don't have to be a believer in wild oil price increases.
Show full opinionHide full opinionFree Cash Flows Several companies are posting great free cash flow -- up to 40% of market cap. Once we get past the Corona virus scare, global demand will grow again. We will see WTI go back to $60/bbl. Valuations will rise sharply. You don't have to be a believer in wild oil price increases.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 12, 2020
TOG vs ARX vs WCP? He favours TOG and WCP over ARX presently. TOG has a 7.7% yield and trades only at 6% above the blow down value of their existing wells and has a strong balance sheet.
oil/gas
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 12, 2020
TOG vs ARX vs WCP? He favours TOG and WCP over ARX presently. TOG has a 7.7% yield and trades only at 6% above the blow down value of their existing wells and has a strong balance sheet.
oil/gas
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 12, 2020
TOG vs ARX vs WCP? He favours TOG and WCP over ARX presently. TOG has a 7.7% yield and trades only at 6% above the blow down value of their existing wells and has a strong balance sheet.
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
HOLD
HOLD
February 12, 2020
An incredibly well run company. He sold out last year after making a 35% profit. They have some natural gas exposure. They have a massive play in the Montney region where other large players are getting great results. He thinks their need to pay dividends will mean they take a measured move into developing this new play. Meanwhile they are paying a 9% yield, which he thinks is safe if there is reasonable price recovery in natural gas.
Show full opinionHide full opinionAn incredibly well run company. He sold out last year after making a 35% profit. They have some natural gas exposure. They have a massive play in the Montney region where other large players are getting great results. He thinks their need to pay dividends will mean they take a measured move into developing this new play. Meanwhile they are paying a 9% yield, which he thinks is safe if there is reasonable price recovery in natural gas.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 12, 2020
The stock trades at a premium multiple. Their balance sheet is not as strong as others. He is not keen on the stock compensation for senior management. He thinks there are better opportunities out there. He is not sure that management's decision to keep paying the dividend is not a wise strategy at the detriment of maintaining production. Yield 15%
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe stock trades at a premium multiple. Their balance sheet is not as strong as others. He is not keen on the stock compensation for senior management. He thinks there are better opportunities out there. He is not sure that management's decision to keep paying the dividend is not a wise strategy at the detriment of maintaining production. Yield 15%
oil/gas
BUY
BUY
February 12, 2020
A name he continues to own and has been buying on weakness. It has simply fallen off the radar screen for many investors. He thinks it trades at 2.7 times value to cash flow and only 87% of the blow down value of the existing wells. It has a 10% free cash flow yield.
Show full opinionHide full opinionA name he continues to own and has been buying on weakness. It has simply fallen off the radar screen for many investors. He thinks it trades at 2.7 times value to cash flow and only 87% of the blow down value of the existing wells. It has a 10% free cash flow yield.
oil/gas
BUY
BUY
February 12, 2020
It is trading at 3.2 times next year's cash flow. There are rumours that a large player in buying up stock. Asset quality and management quality create very compelling value.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt is trading at 3.2 times next year's cash flow. There are rumours that a large player in buying up stock. Asset quality and management quality create very compelling value.
oil/gas
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 12, 2020
(A Top Pick Mar 08/19, Up 4%) A modest win. They sold and bought it back in December. One of two US names that could attract investor interest. He liked the acquisition at 4 times cash flow, which allowed them to begin paying a dividend. Their drilling in the Permian can grow by 10% a year.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Mar 08/19, Up 4%) A modest win. They sold and bought it back in December. One of two US names that could attract investor interest. He liked the acquisition at 4 times cash flow, which allowed them to begin paying a dividend. Their drilling in the Permian can grow by 10% a year.
oil/gas
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 12, 2020
(A Top Pick Mar 08/19, Down 22%) They stubbed their toe and he sold out about mid-year. Their inventory turned out not to be as deep as they had advertised. Within $50 oil prices they can generate 10% free cash flow going forward.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Mar 08/19, Down 22%) They stubbed their toe and he sold out about mid-year. Their inventory turned out not to be as deep as they had advertised. Within $50 oil prices they can generate 10% free cash flow going forward.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 12, 2020
(A Top Pick Mar 08/19, Up 33%) There has been a massive buyer in the market for this stock. He sold out in December and just re-bought at around current price levels. It has direct exposure to heavy oil price strengthening. Crude by rail rates are increasing and is allowing heavy oil inventory to begin dropping. They are using their free cash flow to pay down debt rapidly. They have 68 years of production inventory. He thinks they will become a take out target by a large oil player soon. The stock price could go to $9-$10.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Mar 08/19, Up 33%) There has been a massive buyer in the market for this stock. He sold out in December and just re-bought at around current price levels. It has direct exposure to heavy oil price strengthening. Crude by rail rates are increasing and is allowing heavy oil inventory to begin dropping. They are using their free cash flow to pay down debt rapidly. They have 68 years of production inventory. He thinks they will become a take out target by a large oil player soon. The stock price could go to $9-$10.
oil/gas
SPECULATIVE BUY
SPECULATIVE BUY
February 12, 2020
A smaller cap stock, so he is a little leery. He also thinks they tried to roll out debt to 2027 that has created some headwind. If you believe in $60 this is a screaming buy, anything less than that it is questionable in its ability to generate positive cash flow. He would prefer MEG-T instead.
A smaller cap stock, so he is a little leery. He also thinks they tried to roll out debt to 2027 that has created some headwind. If you believe in $60 this is a screaming buy, anything less than that it is questionable in its ability to generate positive cash flow. He would prefer MEG-T instead.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 12, 2020
He would not bother with this one. They have had several spill issues and governance issues that really turn him off. There are way better plays out there he thinks.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe would not bother with this one. They have had several spill issues and governance issues that really turn him off. There are way better plays out there he thinks.
oil/gas
HOLD
HOLD
February 12, 2020
A much lower beta play on an oil price recovery. They need $55 oil prices to sustain their cash flows. He likes their low cost assets. Yield 7.5%
Show full opinionHide full opinionA much lower beta play on an oil price recovery. They need $55 oil prices to sustain their cash flows. He likes their low cost assets. Yield 7.5%
oil/gas
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 12, 2020
TOU is too high of a natural gas exposure for him. BIR is overspending their cash flow to fill a plant they invested in for the promise of free cash flow next year. If you believe the strip pricing next year, they will generate a 26% free cash flow yield. However, it is also natural gas related. He just thinks there are better buying opportunities from the over selling in the oil markets from the Corona virus.
TOU is too high of a natural gas exposure for him. BIR is overspending their cash flow to fill a plant they invested in for the promise of free cash flow next year. If you believe the strip pricing next year, they will generate a 26% free cash flow yield. However, it is also natural gas related. He just thinks there are better buying opportunities from the over selling in the oil markets from the Corona virus.
oil/gas
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 12, 2020
TOU is too high of a natural gas exposure for him. BIR is overspending their cash flow to fill a plant they invested in for the promise of free cash flow next year. If you believe the strip pricing next year, they will generate a 26% free cash flow yield. However, it is also natural gas related. He just thinks there are better buying opportunities from the over selling in the oil markets from the Corona virus.
TOU is too high of a natural gas exposure for him. BIR is overspending their cash flow to fill a plant they invested in for the promise of free cash flow next year. If you believe the strip pricing next year, they will generate a 26% free cash flow yield. However, it is also natural gas related. He just thinks there are better buying opportunities from the over selling in the oil markets from the Corona virus.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 12, 2020
They reported results yesterday, which were pretty much in line with expectations. The corporate decline rate is 19%, which is manageable. He likes the management team. However, with a low beta to oil price recovery, he is looking elsewhere.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey reported results yesterday, which were pretty much in line with expectations. The corporate decline rate is 19%, which is manageable. He likes the management team. However, with a low beta to oil price recovery, he is looking elsewhere.
HOLD
HOLD
February 12, 2020
The Corona virus is reeking havoc in the oil markets currently as Chinese oil demand is reportedly down. OPEC believes oil demand will still grow this year by 1 million barrels per day. If oil goes back to $60, the stock will be trading at 2 times cash flow and generate a 17% free cash flow yield. He expects they could continue to buy back shares and pay down debt.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe Corona virus is reeking havoc in the oil markets currently as Chinese oil demand is reportedly down. OPEC believes oil demand will still grow this year by 1 million barrels per day. If oil goes back to $60, the stock will be trading at 2 times cash flow and generate a 17% free cash flow yield. He expects they could continue to buy back shares and pay down debt.
oil/gas
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 12, 2020
A new holding for them. It trades at 2.4 times cash flow with a 24% cash flow yield. A very good prospect for a potential acquisition. It needs $60 oil prices to generate that cash flow. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $3.25)
Show full opinionHide full opinionA new holding for them. It trades at 2.4 times cash flow with a 24% cash flow yield. A very good prospect for a potential acquisition. It needs $60 oil prices to generate that cash flow. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $3.25)
oil/gas
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 12, 2020
The balance sheet is better now that they have rolled out debt to 2027. It trades at 3.5 times cash flow and offers a 28% free cash flow yield. They are 50% hedged at $76 Canadian oil pricing. Good exposure to the Eagleford play as well along with Canadian heavy oil. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $2.88)
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe balance sheet is better now that they have rolled out debt to 2027. It trades at 3.5 times cash flow and offers a 28% free cash flow yield. They are 50% hedged at $76 Canadian oil pricing. Good exposure to the Eagleford play as well along with Canadian heavy oil. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $2.88)
oil/gas
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 12, 2020
There is a base level of activity to just maintain production. The stock price is already demonstrating a poor drilling season outlook. They could privatize the company in 2.5 years on current cash flow. An outlook for $60 oil will lead to an uptick in drilling activity from here. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $2.89)
Show full opinionHide full opinionThere is a base level of activity to just maintain production. The stock price is already demonstrating a poor drilling season outlook. They could privatize the company in 2.5 years on current cash flow. An outlook for $60 oil will lead to an uptick in drilling activity from here. Yield 0% (Analysts’ price target is $2.89)
oil/gas field services
N/A
N/A
December 19, 2019
Market. We have seen a massive disconnect between oil and oil stocks. Oil rallied this year but you just starting to see oil stocks lift. The 'truce' between China and the US has taken the demand worry off the table. Investors on the sidelines thinking oil might be a little bit wobbly, last Friday saw the end of tax loss selling was the green light to go back into oil. The mid-cap space was the most abandoned. The real opportunity today is those mid-cap Canadian oil stocks. He is optimistic for 2020.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMarket. We have seen a massive disconnect between oil and oil stocks. Oil rallied this year but you just starting to see oil stocks lift. The 'truce' between China and the US has taken the demand worry off the table. Investors on the sidelines thinking oil might be a little bit wobbly, last Friday saw the end of tax loss selling was the green light to go back into oil. The mid-cap space was the most abandoned. The real opportunity today is those mid-cap Canadian oil stocks. He is optimistic for 2020.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 19, 2019
He is bullish on Albertan-based natural gas because we have declining production and supply, increased take away capacity and inventories are at a 10 year low. The winter will eventually come and then there is the prospect of depleting storage. A lot of Nat gas companies have hedged away their Alberta gas exposure. Pony still leaves him a little uncomfortable, however. He likes BRK-T, TOU-T and ARX-T. The balance sheet of PONY-T leaves him pause.
He is bullish on Albertan-based natural gas because we have declining production and supply, increased take away capacity and inventories are at a 10 year low. The winter will eventually come and then there is the prospect of depleting storage. A lot of Nat gas companies have hedged away their Alberta gas exposure. Pony still leaves him a little uncomfortable, however. He likes BRK-T, TOU-T and ARX-T. The balance sheet of PONY-T leaves him pause.
oil/gas
BUY
BUY
December 19, 2019
Dividend sustainability is at about $48 for all energy companies. They could pay a 6.8% dividend while keeping production flat, theoretically.
Show full opinionHide full opinionDividend sustainability is at about $48 for all energy companies. They could pay a 6.8% dividend while keeping production flat, theoretically.
Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 19, 2019
The shorts are willing to pay the costs of borrowing and the dividend is 13%. Dividend sustainability is not an issue but he thinks you are beating a dead horse.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe shorts are willing to pay the costs of borrowing and the dividend is 13%. Dividend sustainability is not an issue but he thinks you are beating a dead horse.
oil/gas
BUY
BUY
December 19, 2019
It's been a pretty decent winner. It may seem like you missed the rally, but these stocks got so beaten down. The rally, when compared to a 5 year chart, shows the upside potential. They have high quality assets, and a management team that is tried and tested; an extremely strong balance sheet and optimality on developing their asset with improved completion techniques.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt's been a pretty decent winner. It may seem like you missed the rally, but these stocks got so beaten down. The rally, when compared to a 5 year chart, shows the upside potential. They have high quality assets, and a management team that is tried and tested; an extremely strong balance sheet and optimality on developing their asset with improved completion techniques.
oil/gas
BUY
BUY
December 19, 2019
They were deleted from the index. It is a very high quality asset and company. They are not managing expectations as well as perhaps they could have. They are drilling wells with a 6 month payout. He likes it. He sees pretty good upside next year.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey were deleted from the index. It is a very high quality asset and company. They are not managing expectations as well as perhaps they could have. They are drilling wells with a 6 month payout. He likes it. He sees pretty good upside next year.
oil/gas
PARTIAL SELL
PARTIAL SELL
December 19, 2019
They want shareholders to vote to free up restricted cash to potentially buy back stock next year. The key challenge for them is liquidity. There are no sellers and few buyers. If you are looking to buy a small amount, they offer fairly good torque. It is one of the best horses to pick.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey want shareholders to vote to free up restricted cash to potentially buy back stock next year. The key challenge for them is liquidity. There are no sellers and few buyers. If you are looking to buy a small amount, they offer fairly good torque. It is one of the best horses to pick.
oil/gas
BUY
BUY
December 19, 2019
They are the number one target in Canada for M&A. There are a list of potential acquires where it makes a lot of sense. They have enormous tax pools. It is trading at a 29% free cash flow yield. They are over levered. He sees a 25% upside from here.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey are the number one target in Canada for M&A. There are a list of potential acquires where it makes a lot of sense. They have enormous tax pools. It is trading at a 29% free cash flow yield. They are over levered. He sees a 25% upside from here.
oil/gas
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 19, 2019
(A Top Pick Dec 14/18, Up 9%) He since repatriated all the money back to Canada. It is up about 30% because they just made an acquisition. They are monetizing the assets. Oil has gone up since they bought the asset. He still thinks there are better opportunities. He thinks valuations in Canada are lot more attractive.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Dec 14/18, Up 9%) He since repatriated all the money back to Canada. It is up about 30% because they just made an acquisition. They are monetizing the assets. Oil has gone up since they bought the asset. He still thinks there are better opportunities. He thinks valuations in Canada are lot more attractive.
oil/gas
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 19, 2019
(A Top Pick Dec 14/18, Up 12%) A pure play pernium. We were lied to in terms of inventory, well depth and productivity there. There are better opportunities now north of the boarder.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Dec 14/18, Up 12%) A pure play pernium. We were lied to in terms of inventory, well depth and productivity there. There are better opportunities now north of the boarder.
Energy
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
December 19, 2019
(A Top Pick Dec 14/18, Down 28%) It has fallen off the radar screen. Their balance sheet is not as precarious as people think.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Dec 14/18, Down 28%) It has fallen off the radar screen. Their balance sheet is not as precarious as people think.
oil/gas
BUY
BUY
December 19, 2019
It is a mid cap. Their debt to cash flow is one times, which is very low.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt is a mid cap. Their debt to cash flow is one times, which is very low.
oil/gas
SELL
SELL
December 19, 2019
There are other positions where he is more comfortable with management, the assets and the payout ratio. He prefers others. Buy TOG-T or WCP-T in tax loss selling.
oil/gas
BUY
BUY
December 19, 2019
You are seeing a rotation out of SU-T and CNQ-T and into CVE-T. This one offers you the best exposure to the improving backdrop. He thinks we are entering into a multi-year bull market for energy. There is still a dislocation in value between the price of stocks and where oil already is. This is a window of opportunity for companies like SU-T to go out and take advantage of it.
You are seeing a rotation out of SU-T and CNQ-T and into CVE-T. This one offers you the best exposure to the improving backdrop. He thinks we are entering into a multi-year bull market for energy. There is still a dislocation in value between the price of stocks and where oil already is. This is a window of opportunity for companies like SU-T to go out and take advantage of it.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
December 19, 2019
There are a couple of knocks in terms of leverage. They have more older well bores. Management don't own enough stock.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThere are a couple of knocks in terms of leverage. They have more older well bores. Management don't own enough stock.
oil/gas
BUY
BUY
December 19, 2019
He is not shy about taking a profit when he makes the easy money. It has a 12% free cash flow yield. He would like to see more inside ownership but it is a good way to get exposure to an increasing commodity price backdrop.
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