Stock Opinions by Douglas Kee - Stockchase Experts
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Douglas Kee @

On Stockchase since : Oct 2009

Chief Investment Officer at Leon Frazer & Associates

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Stock Opinions by Douglas Kee - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

March 13, 2019

The S&P 500 hit a new high with a quite a return year to date of 12 after a brutal December. The markets are fairly valued given earnings and inflation, though he's a little cautious. The global economy is slowing, including Canada's, and earnings have rolled over. In 2018, earnings were up over 20%, but he projects only 5-7%. But market valuations are better and interest rates are down. Things are okay, but he doesn't see much upside. He started 2019 holding 10% cash and slowly invested it in defensives in energy, insurance and consumer discretionary; he's usually fully invested. He's not a big tech investor. He looks for dividend growth, which is not FAANG. The Canadian banks are a core holding, instead. He expects them to perform better this year with dividend growth. Yes, he owns energy--three pipelines and four producers; all are modest holdings that pay dividends, including Suncor and CNQ. Companies can make decent money if WTI trades between $ - 65.
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The S&P 500 hit a new high with a quite a return year to date of 12 after a brutal December. The markets are fairly valued given earnings and inflation, though he's a little cautious. The global economy is slowing, including Canada's, and earnings have rolled over. In 2018, earnings were up over 20%, but he projects only 5-7%. But market valuations are better and interest rates are down. Things are okay, but he doesn't see much upside. He started 2019 holding 10% cash and slowly invested it in defensives in energy, insurance and consumer discretionary; he's usually fully invested. He's not a big tech investor. He looks for dividend growth, which is not FAANG. The Canadian banks are a core holding, instead. He expects them to perform better this year with dividend growth. Yes, he owns energy--three pipelines and four producers; all are modest holdings that pay dividends, including Suncor and CNQ. Companies can make decent money if WTI trades between $ - 65.
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Inter Pipeline(IPL-T) 

March 13, 2019

He owns other pipelines, like ENB. IPL is more midstream than Enbridge and other peers--a lower choice. IPL yields over 7% which is sutainable. Their last quarter was spotty; they had excess capacity in their pipelines (not full going into Alberta). Overall, a good company
oil pipelines
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He owns other pipelines, like ENB. IPL is more midstream than Enbridge and other peers--a lower choice. IPL yields over 7% which is sutainable. Their last quarter was spotty; they had excess capacity in their pipelines (not full going into Alberta). Overall, a good company
oil pipelines
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$21.810
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
All U.S. operations and pays U.S. dividends. They've done very well and continue to accumulate properties. Just did an equity issue and will invest that money. They have a partnership with an Alberta pension fund and CPP, so there's a good growth trajectory. His only concern is that industrial REITs are very popular in the States and WIR is cheaper than American industrial REITs. He's a happy holder.
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All U.S. operations and pays U.S. dividends. They've done very well and continue to accumulate properties. Just did an equity issue and will invest that money. They have a partnership with an Alberta pension fund and CPP, so there's a good growth trajectory. His only concern is that industrial REITs are very popular in the States and WIR is cheaper than American industrial REITs. He's a happy holder.
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$13.700
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Doesn't know this well. It pays a safe, decent yield. It ran up recently. One question is renewing their Air Canada deal later and renewals make investors jittery.
Transportation & Environmental Services
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Doesn't know this well. It pays a safe, decent yield. It ran up recently. One question is renewing their Air Canada deal later and renewals make investors jittery.
Transportation & Environmental Services
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$7.210
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
He follows it closely. They made a lot of money from distress housing in the States after 2008. They pay a reasonable dividend. But TCN has gone nowhere, because US housing hasn't gone anywhere either. People are still burnt from the Recession.
REAL ESTATE
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He follows it closely. They made a lot of money from distress housing in the States after 2008. They pay a reasonable dividend. But TCN has gone nowhere, because US housing hasn't gone anywhere either. People are still burnt from the Recession.
REAL ESTATE
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$11.440
Owned Owned
No

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WEAK BUY
Aecon Group Inc(ARE-T) 

March 13, 2019

3-5-year horizon, given Ontario government planning $30-billion infrastructure spending A good company that will do well in that time horizon. Caveat: Capex projects like the one Ontario is announcing take a long time to get going. Instead, look at an infrastructure's backlog of projects--buy when that backlog is going up.
contractors
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3-5-year horizon, given Ontario government planning $30-billion infrastructure spending A good company that will do well in that time horizon. Caveat: Capex projects like the one Ontario is announcing take a long time to get going. Instead, look at an infrastructure's backlog of projects--buy when that backlog is going up.
contractors
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$18.350
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Freehold Royalties(FRU-T) 

March 13, 2019

A good royalty company that pays over a 7% yield (safe), with a payout ratio over 60%. They carry no debt. The only problem with their model happens when their oil drillers don't drill, as they did last year. If this happens, collect the yield and wait.
oil/gas
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A good royalty company that pays over a 7% yield (safe), with a payout ratio over 60%. They carry no debt. The only problem with their model happens when their oil drillers don't drill, as they did last year. If this happens, collect the yield and wait.
oil/gas
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$8.680
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
He once owned it. They were good at growing assets and production, but they issued a lot of equity to do this. When oil prices rolled over, CPG got hurt; their debt levels went through the roof and got into a bind. New management is selling assets and cutting the dividend to deal with this problem. It'll be a struggle for them for a while. They have more assets they can sell, but buyers think they can get them cheaper.
oil/gas
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He once owned it. They were good at growing assets and production, but they issued a lot of equity to do this. When oil prices rolled over, CPG got hurt; their debt levels went through the roof and got into a bind. New management is selling assets and cutting the dividend to deal with this problem. It'll be a struggle for them for a while. They have more assets they can sell, but buyers think they can get them cheaper.
oil/gas
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$4.070
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Toronto Dominion(TD-T) 

March 13, 2019

(A Top Pick Mar 07/18, Up 3%) Doing okay like all the Canadian banks. He likes TD's recent 10% dividend increase. It surprised last quarter being on the downside, because their capital markets were a lot worse than the other banks'. Still likes it.
banks
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(A Top Pick Mar 07/18, Up 3%) Doing okay like all the Canadian banks. He likes TD's recent 10% dividend increase. It surprised last quarter being on the downside, because their capital markets were a lot worse than the other banks'. Still likes it.
banks
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$75.160
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 07/18, Up 27%) Benefitted from shipping more oil by train (and the lack of pipelines). Their system was overloaded, but they've since spent money on more trains, so volumes have risen, all wonderful.
Transportation
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(A Top Pick Mar 07/18, Up 27%) Benefitted from shipping more oil by train (and the lack of pipelines). Their system was overloaded, but they've since spent money on more trains, so volumes have risen, all wonderful.
Transportation
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$117.400
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Fortis Inc.(FTS-T) 

March 13, 2019

(A Top Pick Mar 07/18, Up 20%) A core holding for him. They pay a good dividend. They've bought good assets in the States. They're geographically diversified, so are no longer 100% Canadian, but 50/50 with America. Good balance sheet. They raise dividends 6-7% annually.
electrical utilities
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(A Top Pick Mar 07/18, Up 20%) A core holding for him. They pay a good dividend. They've bought good assets in the States. They're geographically diversified, so are no longer 100% Canadian, but 50/50 with America. Good balance sheet. They raise dividends 6-7% annually.
electrical utilities
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$48.810
Owned Owned
Yes

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SELL
He's look at it occasionally. Recent earnings have disappointed the market. Yields over 12%, which will likely be cut. Depending on your time horizon, you could weather this cut. If you can't, then sell now.
investment companies/funds
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He's look at it occasionally. Recent earnings have disappointed the market. Yields over 12%, which will likely be cut. Depending on your time horizon, you could weather this cut. If you can't, then sell now.
investment companies/funds
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$9.680
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Shawcor Ltd. (A)(SCL-T) 

March 13, 2019

He sold it 4 years ago. A great company and management, but it's related to energy prices. They are efficient at coating pipelines. If their backlog is rising, buy it, but when it is not (like now), don't.
oil/gas field services
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He sold it 4 years ago. A great company and management, but it's related to energy prices. They are efficient at coating pipelines. If their backlog is rising, buy it, but when it is not (like now), don't.
oil/gas field services
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$21.800
Owned Owned
No

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WEAK BUY
Enbridge(ENB-T) 

March 13, 2019

The recent pipeline delay will delay the project by 6-12 months. Crude by rail will offset this. This will hurt their furture earnings. ENB has paid down their debt through asset sales, so they're in good shape. They've been growing their dividend. His firm has owned this since the 1950s.
oil/gas pipelines
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The recent pipeline delay will delay the project by 6-12 months. Crude by rail will offset this. This will hurt their furture earnings. ENB has paid down their debt through asset sales, so they're in good shape. They've been growing their dividend. His firm has owned this since the 1950s.
oil/gas pipelines
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$49.110
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Dollarama Inc.(DOL-T) 

March 13, 2019

A growth company, adding stores. They've built their brand and are well-managed. However, they had a few quarters where same-store sales disappointed, so the stock got hit. But there's still room for them to grow in Canada. A decent place to put your money if you're long-term and don't need a big dividend.
Consumer Products
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A growth company, adding stores. They've built their brand and are well-managed. However, they had a few quarters where same-store sales disappointed, so the stock got hit. But there's still room for them to grow in Canada. A decent place to put your money if you're long-term and don't need a big dividend.
Consumer Products
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$35.320
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Husky Energy(HSE-T) 

March 13, 2019

He owns Suncor and CNQ in this space. Husky is well-managed with good long-term assets. He has nothing negative to say about it; he just prefers these two other oil companies.
oil/gas
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He owns Suncor and CNQ in this space. Husky is well-managed with good long-term assets. He has nothing negative to say about it; he just prefers these two other oil companies.
oil/gas
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$14.150
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Saputo Inc.(SAP-T) 

March 13, 2019

He watches it, watching defensive stocks. SAP has done well. They bought a UK company, Dairy Crest, and the market liked it. There'll be more acquisitions to come. The only problem is the commodity price of milk and cheeese, which is going down.
food processing
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He watches it, watching defensive stocks. SAP has done well. They bought a UK company, Dairy Crest, and the market liked it. There'll be more acquisitions to come. The only problem is the commodity price of milk and cheeese, which is going down.
food processing
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$44.430
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Telus Corp(T-T) 

March 13, 2019

He's long owned this. A good 7% dividend grower. The whole space is challenged by revenue growth by the wireless side. Telus has actually been expanding the data side. He likes it.
telephone utilities
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He's long owned this. A good 7% dividend grower. The whole space is challenged by revenue growth by the wireless side. Telus has actually been expanding the data side. He likes it.
telephone utilities
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$47.760
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Emera Inc(EMA-T) 

March 13, 2019

Yes. It's taken a backseat to Fortis, but they go back and forth. The problem is EMA makes acquisitions, then pays down debt as they are currently. They have a major construction business in Tampa, so they're investing back in the business. He owns both companies, both good dividend-payers, both good buyers in the States.
mngmnt/diversified
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Yes. It's taken a backseat to Fortis, but they go back and forth. The problem is EMA makes acquisitions, then pays down debt as they are currently. They have a major construction business in Tampa, so they're investing back in the business. He owns both companies, both good dividend-payers, both good buyers in the States.
mngmnt/diversified
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$49.090
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Magna Int'l. (A)(MG-T) 

March 13, 2019

He keeps watching it. Great balance sheet. They've been growing their dividend this cycle, but auto sales have rolled over. Magna is still making good money, but trading at 7-8x earnings because the market believes that the auto companies are rolling over; production and sales have rolled over. He's cautious about it. He may buy it 10-15% lower.
Automotive
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He keeps watching it. Great balance sheet. They've been growing their dividend this cycle, but auto sales have rolled over. Magna is still making good money, but trading at 7-8x earnings because the market believes that the auto companies are rolling over; production and sales have rolled over. He's cautious about it. He may buy it 10-15% lower.
Automotive
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$66.450
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Hydro One(H-T) 

March 13, 2019

He owns Fortis, Emera and NPI, so he has enough utilities. The business in Ontario is good with possibility of expansion. But the problems with the Ontario goverment scare him off. Good dividend, but weaker dividend growth than its peers.
electrical utilities
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He owns Fortis, Emera and NPI, so he has enough utilities. The business in Ontario is good with possibility of expansion. But the problems with the Ontario goverment scare him off. Good dividend, but weaker dividend growth than its peers.
electrical utilities
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$20.250
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
It was a high-flyer a few years ago. They've increase their dividend. The bus market has been challenged. Most of their clients are US cities which can't go into deficity, so that hits NFI's orders.
Automotive
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It was a high-flyer a few years ago. They've increase their dividend. The bus market has been challenged. Most of their clients are US cities which can't go into deficity, so that hits NFI's orders.
Automotive
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$31.950
Owned Owned
No

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TOP PICK
Fortis Inc.(FTS-T) 

March 13, 2019

Solid and diversified. A good dividend grower at 7% annually. They have $17 billion of capex over the next three years. Growth rate of 7%. (Analysts’ price target is $49.48)
electrical utilities
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Solid and diversified. A good dividend grower at 7% annually. They have $17 billion of capex over the next three years. Growth rate of 7%. (Analysts’ price target is $49.48)
electrical utilities
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$48.810
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
He picked the worst Canadian bank year to date. It's underperformed. Their capital markets side was worse than expected. There've been questions about their Mexico operations with changes in that banking environment. They are a good dividend grower and will do another one likely in Q3. The growth of their mortage bank is slowing, though still positive; delinquencies haven't risen. Their core business is domestic retail and what matters is what they do with that cash flow. They're investing in technology which has hurt margins. (Analysts’ price target is $79.17)
banks
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He picked the worst Canadian bank year to date. It's underperformed. Their capital markets side was worse than expected. There've been questions about their Mexico operations with changes in that banking environment. They are a good dividend grower and will do another one likely in Q3. The growth of their mortage bank is slowing, though still positive; delinquencies haven't risen. Their core business is domestic retail and what matters is what they do with that cash flow. They're investing in technology which has hurt margins. (Analysts’ price target is $79.17)
banks
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$72.760
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Not just retail, but they also have financial services and real estate. Well-managed and a good acquirer of assets like Mark's Work Warehouse with fine execution. This has underperformed the last six months due to weather, but they did buy a sportswear company for $1.1 billion. They'll do well with it. CT has increased its dividend.
specialty stores
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Not just retail, but they also have financial services and real estate. Well-managed and a good acquirer of assets like Mark's Work Warehouse with fine execution. This has underperformed the last six months due to weather, but they did buy a sportswear company for $1.1 billion. They'll do well with it. CT has increased its dividend.
specialty stores
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$146.080
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

December 18, 2018

Tomorrow's last rate decision by the U.S. Fed: It'll likely increase by 25 basis points. If Powell doesn't do it, it'll be a downer. What they'll likely do for 2019 is a wait-and-see approach, which is fine. Instead of 3-4, it'll likely be 1-2 hikes. We got a reprieve on today's markets, but we won't get a Santa Claus rally this year. Market sentiment is terrible. Earnings momentum has rollen over; it will go up in 2019, but at a lower rate than this year. Another question mark is the China-US trade war. Liquidity gets tight in December. Money is coming out of the stock market in December this year with few buyers this year.
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Tomorrow's last rate decision by the U.S. Fed: It'll likely increase by 25 basis points. If Powell doesn't do it, it'll be a downer. What they'll likely do for 2019 is a wait-and-see approach, which is fine. Instead of 3-4, it'll likely be 1-2 hikes. We got a reprieve on today's markets, but we won't get a Santa Claus rally this year. Market sentiment is terrible. Earnings momentum has rollen over; it will go up in 2019, but at a lower rate than this year. Another question mark is the China-US trade war. Liquidity gets tight in December. Money is coming out of the stock market in December this year with few buyers this year.
Unknown
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Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Manulife Financial(MFC-T) 

December 18, 2018

Increased their dividend by 20% this year, now above 5%. Interest rates went up--then down, which hurt the lifecos, MFC is doing a good job of selling their legacy businesses, which improves their outlook. Their traditional cash flow out of their Canadian business creates cash flow, and their Asian operation is good especially for long-term.
insurance
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Increased their dividend by 20% this year, now above 5%. Interest rates went up--then down, which hurt the lifecos, MFC is doing a good job of selling their legacy businesses, which improves their outlook. Their traditional cash flow out of their Canadian business creates cash flow, and their Asian operation is good especially for long-term.
insurance
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0 comments
Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$19.510
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Home Capital Group(HCG-T) 

December 18, 2018

They've come back from the worst and re-orgnized their businesses. But they will be challenged. The banks too as home sales decline and those prices are flat.
investment companies/funds
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0 comments
They've come back from the worst and re-orgnized their businesses. But they will be challenged. The banks too as home sales decline and those prices are flat.
investment companies/funds
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0 comments
Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$16.480
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Toronto Dominion(TD-T) 

December 18, 2018

He's long owned this and likes it. It's big in the U.S. Stick with it. He's not worried. TD increased their dividend by 9% this year and likely 8% next.
banks
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0 comments
He's long owned this and likes it. It's big in the U.S. Stick with it. He's not worried. TD increased their dividend by 9% this year and likely 8% next.
banks
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$68.630
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Intertape Polymer Group(ITP-T) 

December 18, 2018

They're in the midst of a capex program. Payout ratio is in the 80s. Coverage of the dividend will improve in coming years. It's too small for him to buy.
packaging/containers
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0 comments
They're in the midst of a capex program. Payout ratio is in the 80s. Coverage of the dividend will improve in coming years. It's too small for him to buy.
packaging/containers
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0 comments
Douglas Kee

Chief Inve, Leon Frazer & Associ...

Price Price
$15.650
Owned Owned
No

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