CIO & Portfolio Manager at Baskin Wealth Management
Member since: Sep '09 · 2703 Opinions
He hasn't owned mining companies in a very long time. Shocking to see what's happened to FM with that mine, as it's a great asset. Shows how risky it is to invest in foreign countries outside NA.
ABX knows how to allocate capital very well. If he were interested in a mining company, this would be the one, as the CEO certainly knows what to do. Eventually, the FM mine has to be up and running. If ABX can run it properly, there's a lot of value that can be created.
Small companies can't exist anymore in this new age of mining, oil/gas. We're going to see a lot of M&A.
He hasn't owned mining companies in a very long time. Shocking to see what's happened to FM with that mine, as it's a great asset. Shows how risky it is to invest in foreign countries outside NA.
ABX knows how to allocate capital very well. If he were interested in a mining company, this would be the one, as the CEO certainly knows what to do. Eventually, the FM mine has to be up and running. If ABX can run it properly, there's a lot of value that can be created.
Small companies can't exist anymore in this new age of mining, oil/gas. We're going to see a lot of M&A.
Two days in, and he wants to throw up because it's started off so lousy. He doesn't want it to go up as it did last year, because then we'd be into absolutely silly valuations again like 2021. 2023 was a terrific year, especially for the Magnificent stocks. But they were just recovering from a terrible 2022.
It's totally uncertain what it's going to do in 2024, no one knows. Interest rates are going to come down, as is inflation, and this will probably be good for stocks. But there's going to be something thrown at us that we can't prepare for.
He's going to spend most of his time thinking about the companies he owns, how they're going to get better in good times and bad, how they're going to allocate capital, and sticking with strong management. That's how a long-term investor thinks.
It depends. The great move from 0% to where they are today was fast, but where rates are right now is normal, they're not high. BOC will reduce rates before a lot of the refinancing pain happens in 2025-26. He's not a doom and gloomer.
The stocks that are doing poorly already reflect that in their prices such as office REITs and real estate companies, have already been beaten and battered. They're not going to do better until interest rates come down and that economy starts to turn.
It's all about the spread that people can make. No question, it's now more expensive to build. But if they can get higher prices for their projects, and immigration is exploding here in Canada, you still have to be bullish on real estate in Canada and NA long term. It's just a normal cycle with a bump in the road.
When clients start with him, he likes to start with about 30-33 names, each with about a 3% weighting. He wishes he knew which stock would do the best, and then he'd allocate more to it. But he doesn't. If things go well, he lets stocks run up to about 7-8% before trimming them back. If things get smaller, and he likes them, he buys more.
Don't focus just on dividend stocks just because you're a certain demographic or you like income. Don't just focus on growth names. Have a diversified portfolio of companies that will do well in lots of different environments.
He doesn't think a 5% weighting in a stock is crazy, it's very reasonable. If you have a lot of conviction in those companies, then that's where your weighting should be. Yield is around 7%. Won't reduce the dividend unless something really terrible happens. Extremely mature company, will grow with GDP plus or minus, highly levered.
Investors own for the dividend. He wouldn't overweight his portfolio with it, but makes sense for a certain demographic.
He doesn't think a 5% weighting in a stock is crazy, it's very reasonable. If you have a lot of conviction in those companies, then that's where your weighting should be. Yield is around 7%. Won't reduce the dividend unless something really terrible happens. Extremely mature company, will grow with GDP plus or minus, highly levered.
Investors own for the dividend. He wouldn't overweight his portfolio with it, but makes sense for a certain demographic.
Compounded revenues at 19% a year for the last 5 years, part organic and part acquisition. Loves this type of company. Recent acquisition of US roofing company gives it another vertical. In property management, restorations, home renovations. Not cheap and never will be. Quite attractive here.
Can't learn much from what happens from day-to-day stock moves. Stock's gone nowhere in a very long time. Their acquisitions have not worked out, execution issues, got interest rate move in 2022 completely wrong. New management trying to right the ship. A show-me story. Not the highest quality bank. He prefers RY, TD, and NA.
Stocks have been struggling since the start of the year. Banks had a nice runup in December, as everyone thought rates would start to come down in 2024. But rates have peaked up a bit in the last couple of days. You can't learn much from what happens from day-to-day stock moves. Better to focus on the quality of your asset.
More comfortable about banks than he was a few months ago, since central banks are going to start lowering interest rates across the globe sometime in 2024. This should take a lot of heat off the Canadian banks, though it will hurt earnings in the short term. It's better for the world economy that rates start to come down.
Canadian railroads have been the crushing outperforming sector going back many years. Better than the banks.
Doesn't like them, because he doesn't like paying to protect himself against currency movements and paying out extra fees. As a long-term investor, the currency won't make any difference over the long term.
The winners keep on winning. Greatest US bank. CEO has done a remarkable job. Benefited from the banking crisis last March. Companies with best balance sheets and management navigate tough times better and crush the competition. No reason this won't continue.
Bank earnings are hard to predict, but he's more bullish on the US economy. US consumers locked in mortgages, and so they're in a much stronger position than Canadian consumers. You should probably own US banks over Canadian.
Best-performing Canadian bank over last 10 years, right up there with RY. Wants to keep payout ratio at 50% or less. Raised dividend because earnings kept growing. 2024 won't see such earnings growth, with prudent loan loss provisions. Market's sniffing out better earnings for 2025. 10x PE, and dividend will keep growing.