Opinions by Keith Richards | StockChase
1456
Keith Richards

Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE May 2009

ValueTrend Wealth Management

1456
Keith Richards

Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE May 2009

ValueTrend Wealth Management


Opinions by Keith Richards


Signal Opinion Expert Chart
N/A
General Market Comment 

January 8, 2018

Market. We may be poised to return to more rational behaviour. In 2017, there were only 8 days that had more than a 1% corrective movement. Normal is closer to 40 days. You should have some wall of worry to climb, a staircase kind of look, and there was none last year. There were a lot of signs that there should've been a correction last year, but it never happened. An S&P 500 Index chart going back to 1980 showed the normal volatility up to about the late 1990s and there were plenty of corrections. From about mid-1990s, as the tech bubble took off, volatility evaporated. That resulted in a period of sideways followed by a strong market correction. This was followed by very low volatility in 2004-2008. A series of volatility followed by a correction. Even in the beginning, after the 2009 bottom, there was some pretty regular volatility. It then migrated into a period of no volatility from 2013 to 2016. In early 2016, there was a period of market volatility. We are in another one of these really low volatility periods. That usually means we usually head into a period of sideways chop or possibly a correction, but the very least we are going to get is a sideways chop. He thinks there is going to be some rotation into more value oriented sectors, some of the overlooked sectors like US banks, energy, some of the conglomerates, areas that everybody has been ignoring.

Market. We may be poised to return to more rational behaviour. In 2017, there were only 8 days that had more than a 1% corrective movement. Normal is closer to 40 days. You should have some wall of worry to climb, a staircase kind of look, and there was none last year. There were a lot of signs that there should've been a correction last year, but it never happened. An S&P 500 Index chart going back to 1980 showed the normal volatility up to about the late 1990s and there were plenty of corrections. From about mid-1990s, as the tech bubble took off, volatility evaporated. That resulted in a period of sideways followed by a strong market correction. This was followed by very low volatility in 2004-2008. A series of volatility followed by a correction. Even in the beginning, after the 2009 bottom, there was some pretty regular volatility. It then migrated into a period of no volatility from 2013 to 2016. In early 2016, there was a period of market volatility. We are in another one of these really low volatility periods. That usually means we usually head into a period of sideways chop or possibly a correction, but the very least we are going to get is a sideways chop. He thinks there is going to be some rotation into more value oriented sectors, some of the overlooked sectors like US banks, energy, some of the conglomerates, areas that everybody has been ignoring.

Unknown
Keith Richards

Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Ma...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

Must be logged in to use chart
N/A
General Market Comment 

January 8, 2018

Moving averages? There is Simple, Exponential and Weighted moving averages. Simple Moving Average is the most commonly used. On a 200-day moving average, it basically takes the average for the last 200 days, adds them up and divides by 200. Weighted basically takes the most recent days, and weights them more than the early days. Exponential is another version of a Weighted Moving Average that is more complicated, but basically further weights the most recent data. The problem with Exponential and Weighted moving averages is that it frontloads the Weighted moving average, so it is almost like having a shorter moving average. Simple is probably the easiest to understand and to use, and is also the most commonly followed.

Moving averages? There is Simple, Exponential and Weighted moving averages. Simple Moving Average is the most commonly used. On a 200-day moving average, it basically takes the average for the last 200 days, adds them up and divides by 200. Weighted basically takes the most recent days, and weights them more than the early days. Exponential is another version of a Weighted Moving Average that is more complicated, but basically further weights the most recent data. The problem with Exponential and Weighted moving averages is that it frontloads the Weighted moving average, so it is almost like having a shorter moving average. Simple is probably the easiest to understand and to use, and is also the most commonly followed.

Unknown
Keith Richards

Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Ma...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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COMMENT
Altagas Ltd(ALA-T) 

January 8, 2018

The chart shows it is approaching an old support level it bounced off of in 2015 several times. The chart is not showing too many signs of it wanting to break out. Recent highs have been progressively lower and the lows are progressively lower as well. It could go back down to the mid-$20. He looked at it recently, and it didn't interest him enough to buy it.

oil/gas

The chart shows it is approaching an old support level it bounced off of in 2015 several times. The chart is not showing too many signs of it wanting to break out. Recent highs have been progressively lower and the lows are progressively lower as well. It could go back down to the mid-$20. He looked at it recently, and it didn't interest him enough to buy it.

oil/gas
Keith Richards

Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Ma...

PricePrice
$29.050
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Applied Materials(AMAT-Q) 

January 8, 2018

Chart shows a long upward trend from 2016, and the stock is still on trend. It bounced off the trend line recently. The trend is still up, so if you can tolerate the volatility, you are probably okay.

electrical/electronic

Chart shows a long upward trend from 2016, and the stock is still on trend. It bounced off the trend line recently. The trend is still up, so if you can tolerate the volatility, you are probably okay.

electrical/electronic
Keith Richards

Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Ma...

PricePrice
$55.920
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Bank of America(BAC-N) 

January 8, 2018

He really likes the US banks. It’s one of the sectors that money is going to go into. The chart showed a break out in mid-2017, and perhaps has a little bit of a pullback coming. On any kind of a pullback, he would be all over this. This applies to all of the US banks. (See Top Picks.)

banks

He really likes the US banks. It’s one of the sectors that money is going to go into. The chart showed a break out in mid-2017, and perhaps has a little bit of a pullback coming. On any kind of a pullback, he would be all over this. This applies to all of the US banks. (See Top Picks.)

banks
Keith Richards

Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Ma...

PricePrice
$30.120
Owned Owned
Unknown

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TOP PICK

Has broken out of its mega long base that has been in place since 2015. This is a kind of way of owning infrastructure and properties. Also, Brookfield are money managers and manages assets. Feels they have some growth, and he loves the chart break out. He is looking at this as a 1-2 year hold at least. (Analysts' price target is $46.)

management/diversified

Has broken out of its mega long base that has been in place since 2015. This is a kind of way of owning infrastructure and properties. Also, Brookfield are money managers and manages assets. Feels they have some growth, and he loves the chart break out. He is looking at this as a 1-2 year hold at least. (Analysts' price target is $46.)

management/diversified
Keith Richards

Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Ma...

PricePrice
$54.060
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
B2Gold Corp.(BTO-T) 

January 8, 2018

Gold Stocks? He doesn't like gold miners or the way they look, and is neutral to somewhat bearish. There are 1,000 places he would rather be. The chart is showing a triangular type of consolidation. It could break out, but in order for that to happen, you need gold to bust $1350, and it is nowhere near that.

Golds

Gold Stocks? He doesn't like gold miners or the way they look, and is neutral to somewhat bearish. There are 1,000 places he would rather be. The chart is showing a triangular type of consolidation. It could break out, but in order for that to happen, you need gold to bust $1350, and it is nowhere near that.

Golds
Keith Richards

Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Ma...

PricePrice
$3.640
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY

He's been buying oil. It’s a sector that money is going to start rotating into, because it has to play catch-up. If something has been in a downtrend, he wants it to base and then break out. That really hasn't started yet on this stock. It’s still heading down. He’s been buying oil stocks that have been breaking out from a base.

oil/gas

He's been buying oil. It’s a sector that money is going to start rotating into, because it has to play catch-up. If something has been in a downtrend, he wants it to base and then break out. That really hasn't started yet on this stock. It’s still heading down. He’s been buying oil stocks that have been breaking out from a base.

oil/gas
Keith Richards

Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Ma...

PricePrice
$10.060
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Enbridge(ENB-T) 

January 8, 2018

Enbridge (ENB-T) or Enbridge Income Fund (ENF-T) for a 45-year-old? If he had to choose between the 2, he would probably select Enbridge (ENB-T) for the growth side and Enbridge Income (ENF-T) for the dividend.

oil/gas pipelines

Enbridge (ENB-T) or Enbridge Income Fund (ENF-T) for a 45-year-old? If he had to choose between the 2, he would probably select Enbridge (ENB-T) for the growth side and Enbridge Income (ENF-T) for the dividend.

oil/gas pipelines
Keith Richards

Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Ma...

PricePrice
$50.580
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD

Enbridge (ENB-T) or Enbridge Income Fund (ENF-T) for a 45-year-old? He holds this. It isn't really much of a growth stock. It looked okay for a while, then started rolling over in early 2017. For people just looking for the dividend, it has pretty good support at around $27, so your downside is not huge. If he had to choose between the 2, he would probably select Enbridge (ENB-T) for the growth side and Enbridge Income (ENF-T) for the dividend. Dividend yield of about 7.5%.

oil/gas

Enbridge (ENB-T) or Enbridge Income Fund (ENF-T) for a 45-year-old? He holds this. It isn't really much of a growth stock. It looked okay for a while, then started rolling over in early 2017. For people just looking for the dividend, it has pretty good support at around $27, so your downside is not huge. If he had to choose between the 2, he would probably select Enbridge (ENB-T) for the growth side and Enbridge Income (ENF-T) for the dividend. Dividend yield of about 7.5%.

oil/gas
Keith Richards

Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Ma...

PricePrice
$29.860
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Fairfax Financial(FFH-T) 

January 8, 2018

(A Top Pick Oct 31/17. Down 5%.) The stock was moving up, started to round over. This has India. Has insurance interests, which can be affected by the West Coast buyers. He’s at the point where he is trying to decide if this is a real breakdown or should he keep it. Watch this before buying if you are in new investor.

insurance

(A Top Pick Oct 31/17. Down 5%.) The stock was moving up, started to round over. This has India. Has insurance interests, which can be affected by the West Coast buyers. He’s at the point where he is trying to decide if this is a real breakdown or should he keep it. Watch this before buying if you are in new investor.

insurance
Keith Richards

Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Ma...

PricePrice
$647.760
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
General Electric(GE-N) 

January 8, 2018

Had owned this when it was trading somewhat in a pattern, but it broke support and he got out. It’s at the very, very early stages of "possibly basing", because it hasn't had enough time to build a base. You need a few months of sideways, upside, downside, choppy look on the chart, and then a break out before buying.

electrical/electronic

Had owned this when it was trading somewhat in a pattern, but it broke support and he got out. It’s at the very, very early stages of "possibly basing", because it hasn't had enough time to build a base. You need a few months of sideways, upside, downside, choppy look on the chart, and then a break out before buying.

electrical/electronic
Keith Richards

Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Ma...

PricePrice
$18.280
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
COMMENT

The chart shows this was in a downtrend from mid-2014. In late 2017, it broke out from a bit of a base, and looks very bullish from a technical perspective.

investment companies/funds

The chart shows this was in a downtrend from mid-2014. In late 2017, it broke out from a bit of a base, and looks very bullish from a technical perspective.

investment companies/funds
Keith Richards

Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Ma...

PricePrice
$4.100
Owned Owned
No

Must be logged in to use chart
BUY on WEAKNESS
Moody's Corp.(MCO-N) 

January 8, 2018

Chart shows this was moving sideways from early 2015 and then broke out in early 2017. It looks good. It’s probably due for some correction, but generally speaking the breakout is very bullish for the stock. If it pulled back at all, he would probably be all over it.

Financial Services

Chart shows this was moving sideways from early 2015 and then broke out in early 2017. It looks good. It’s probably due for some correction, but generally speaking the breakout is very bullish for the stock. If it pulled back at all, he would probably be all over it.

Financial Services
Keith Richards

Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Ma...

PricePrice
$155.070
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
COMMENT
Methanex Corp(MX-T) 

January 8, 2018

The real challenge is going to be the old highs. Going back to 2014, $80 was a point of resistance. From that time, it has been dropping, and testing under $80. Now there are stronger earnings, and it could break through its current high of about $78. If it breaks the 2014 high of $80, that would be extremely bullish.

chemicals

The real challenge is going to be the old highs. Going back to 2014, $80 was a point of resistance. From that time, it has been dropping, and testing under $80. Now there are stronger earnings, and it could break through its current high of about $78. If it breaks the 2014 high of $80, that would be extremely bullish.

chemicals
Keith Richards

Portfolio Manager, ValueTrend Wealth Ma...

PricePrice
$77.380
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
Showing 1 to 15 of 1,456 entries
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2 Comments

BeauRegard

March 20th 2015 at 9:57am

You should be honored to be named after one of the 'Glimmer twins' ;>)

Rogor

January 4th 2017 at 11:09pm

This is a really helpful resource. Thank you for putting it together. Nice work!


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