Opinions by Adam Thomas | StockChase
24
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Oct 2007

Qwest Fund Management
Suite 700744 - 4th Avenue S.W.Calgary, ALT2P 3T4
http://www.qwestfunds.com/


Opinions by Adam Thomas


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2017-11-20

COMMENT
Visa Inc. (V-N)

A US name and he leaves these to a colleague.  He knows his company likes the names.  A lot of investors are concerned about ecommerce, but he thinks it is a benefit of these companies.  They are transactions oriented.

other services
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $109.950
Owned: Unknown

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2017-11-16

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Market.  WHY-X put out a news release that suggested someone would buy their deposit in BC.  The company surged and was halted, then the deal fell apart.  You have to be careful about this.  He cannot believe the kinds of things that go on in this market. 

Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-11-13

DON'T BUY
Vanguard Industrials Index Fund ETF Shares (VIS-N)

When the economy is strong, cyclical sectors tend to outperform.  He thinks we are very late in the economic cycle.  It could end any time now.  You want to be underweight cyclical late in the cycle.  When the market is down and the bad news is priced in, then that is when to overweight these.  Don’t add to industrials right now.

E.T.F.'s
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $133.400
Owned: Unknown

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2017-05-29

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Educational Segment.  Demographics. You have two natural drivers of growth:  Growth from population growth and growth from productivity growth.  From the sum of the two we get about 1.3% growth in the world.  We have a growth problem, despite all the money being spent in the world.  We are in a low growth world.  The vast majority of the growth in the world is from China, India and Africa.  But China is near finished growing.  AFK-N and INDA-N are ETFs he likes.  Buy on pullbacks.

Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-05-29

DON'T BUY
Brookfield Renewable Energy (BEP.UN-T)

We are never going back to coal.  Everyone has moved off it, despite what Mr. Trump happens to say about it.  If it gets back down to the $39 area he might be tempted to play it, however.

Utilities
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $42.710
Owned: Unknown

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2017-05-29

DON'T BUY
First Asset Tech Giants CC ETF (TXF-T)

It is a great way to play the big techs, but now is not a great time to get in.  The covered calls mean that if markets go up a lot you may not participate properly.  He likes the ETF, but tech stocks are not a great place to be right now.

E.T.F.'s
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $15.150
Owned: Unknown

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2017-01-30

COMMENT
BMO US Put Write ETF. (ZPW-T)

It is priced in US$ so you have currency exposure.  Last year there was a lot of price decline due to currency fluctuation.  This ETF is not risk free.  If all the holdings in the ETF go down a lot there is a downside risk.  Liquidity is not an issue for this ETF.

E.T.F.'s
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $19.620
Owned: Unknown

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2013-09-16

DON'T BUY
China Gold International Resources (CGG-T)

Listed in Canada but operations are in the far east.  Is cautious because of high debt and accounting is weird.  If you are betting gold will go a lot higher it is a pretty decent bet but if not it can decline a lot.

precious metals
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $3.040
Owned: No

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2013-09-16

WATCH
Jean Coutu Group (PJC) (A) (PJC.A-T)

Potential take out candidate.  It would be Metro, most likely.  A very well run company.  With shippers taken out it will be the only guy left.  The take out premium has already been priced in.  He would wait.  Doesn’t like the risk / reward ratio.  It would make a lot of sense if PJC took out someone else.

department stores
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $18.200
Owned: Unknown

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2007-10-05

BUY
Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG-T)
Assets mainly based in Saskatchewan. Bakken is a huge resource play. Have about 200,000 acres. Recently purchased Innova (IXL-T) for a pretty hefty price but it has made them the dominant player in this 1.6 billion-resource play. Trust model is quite sustainable. Low payout ratio. 11% yield. 86% light oil.
oil/gas
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $21.450
Owned: No

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2007-10-05

TOP PICK
Cyries Energy Inc (CYS-T)
Undervalued story. Junior gas focused company with 70% gas in Alberta. Probably one of the best management teams in the patch. Has come down significantly from its highs. You now get it below NAV. Clean balance sheet. Could be a takeout candidate. Buy a little bit now and if Alberta does not implement the royalty review, buy more.
oil/gas
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $6.900
Owned: Yes

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2007-10-05

DON'T BUY
Diaz Resources Ltd (DZR-X (Dead))
Did quite poorly over the last couple of years. Have assets in Wilcox County, Texas and it has been tough slugging. Spent a lot of time/capital drilling big, expensive wells. Difficult to get to and difficult to drill. Asset base in Canada is in southeastern Alberta, which has been in decline.
oil/gas
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $0.400
Owned: Unknown

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2007-10-05

DON'T BUY
Diaz Resources Ltd (DZR-X (Dead))
Did quite poorly over the last couple of years. Have assets in Wilcox County, Texas and it has been tough slugging. Spent a lot of time/capital drilling big, expensive wells. Difficult to get to and difficult to drill. Asset base in Canada is in southeastern Alberta, which has been in decline.
oil/gas
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $0.400
Owned: Unknown

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2007-10-05

DON'T BUY
Falcon Oil & Gas (FO-X)
Would not be a buyer of this company. The Hungary deep gas has always played into cycles. Really deep, complicated stuff. There is a lot of stock outstanding on this company.
oil/gas
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $0.680
Owned: No

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2007-10-05

TOP PICK
Frontline Ltd (FRO-N)
A Norwegian company. Largest tanker company in the world. This is especially important to the yield hungry investor who has been playing the royalty trusts. Has about a 15% yield. Only trades at about 4X PE. Tanker stocks cash flow a significant amount of money. Try to pick it up closer to the $42 range.
Transportation
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $50.630
Owned: No

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2007-10-05

SELL
Obsidian Energy (OBE-T)
Would sell this one and get into Crescent Point (CPG.UN-T), which has a more sustainable model.
oil/gas
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $30.550
Owned: No

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2007-10-05

SELL
Petrominerales Ltd. (PMG-T (Dead))
Have been in Colombia for quite some time and have had pretty significant discoveries in the Llanos Basin. Stock has been running lately because they are drilling the Corcel 2 well, which should be down probably in the next 2, 3 weeks. Getting expensive at these levels and he would suggest you take some profits.
oil/gas
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $17.270
Owned: Yes

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2007-10-05

SELL
Perpetual Energy (PMT-T)
Would not be an owner of this one right now. He would look at an affiliated company Paramount Resources (POU-T). It doesn't pay a distribution, but is probably one of the stronger energy names.
oil/gas
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $7.840
Owned: No

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2007-10-05

BUY
Paramount Resources (POU-T)
One of the stronger energy names in the oil patch. Produce about 18,000 barrels and have about $150 million in cash. In a weaker Canadian market, it is a safer place to be.
oil/gas
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $17.690
Owned: Yes

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2007-10-05

SELL
PetroChina (PTR-N)
A subsidiary of the Chinese National Oil Company. Biggest and most profitable company in China. Very strong internationally. Essentially a duopoly in China and basically control the wholesale/retail market with Cinipaq. Stock is known to pull back hard, so would take some profits and buy back in the $150 range.
integrated oils
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $190.830
Owned: Yes

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2007-10-05

SELL
Prime West Energy Trust (PWI.UN-T)
Has been the subject of her recent takeover from Abu Dhabi’s Taqa. It is almost trading at the deal price. Holding it for the next couple of months will give you a limited distribution. There is a slight bit of deal risk because of Alberta’s royalty review. He suggests you take your profits and run.
investment companies/funds
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $26.290
Owned: No

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2007-10-05

BUY
Talisman Energy (TLM-T (Dead))
Has been a value trap. Trades at about 4.4X cash flow compared to the average of about 5.9. International focused and with the recent royalty review in Alberta this could be a breakout year for them. Sold about $1 billion of Canadian assets and have been buying back stock. Have some new, exciting permits in Peru and Colombia. Diversification is tremendous.
oil/gas
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $19.430
Owned: No

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2007-10-05

BUY
Tusk Energy (TSK-T)
As dropped down way below its intrinsic value and could be a takeout. Low multiple at 2.5X cash flow. Expect it will be gone in a next 5 to 6 months at a nice premium.
oil/gas
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $1.380
Owned: Yes

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2007-10-05

TOP PICK
Western Oil Sands Inc. (WTO-T)
Being acquired by Marathon (MRO-N). He is buying it for the sum of the parts of the valuation. Basically what you are getting with the Marathon take out is cash and about 33% of stock. You also get a junior international exploreco, Western Zagros in Kurdistan, where there are significant light oil deposits. Market is not fully valuing this company.
oil/gas
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager, Qwest Fund Management

Price: $38.450
Owned: Yes

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