Opinions by Adam Thomas | StockChase
23
Adam Thomas

Vice President & Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Oct 2007

Qwest Fund Management
Suite 700744 - 4th Avenue S.W.Calgary, ALT2P 3T4
http://www.qwestfunds.com/


Opinions by Adam Thomas



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Date Signal Chart Company Opinion
2013-09-16
WATCH

PJC.A-T

$18.200

Jean Coutu Group (PJC) (A)


Potential take out candidate.  It would be Metro, most likely.  A very well run company.  With shippers taken out it will be the only guy left.  The take out premium has already been priced in.  He would wait.  Doesn’t like the risk / reward ratio.  It would make a lot of sense if PJC took out someone else.

department stores
2007-10-05
TOP PICK

CYS-T

$6.900

Cyries Energy Inc


Undervalued story. Junior gas focused company with 70% gas in Alberta. Probably one of the best management teams in the patch. Has come down significantly from its highs. You now get it below NAV. Clean balance sheet. Could be a takeout candidate. Buy a little bit now and if Alberta does not implement the royalty review, buy more.
oil/gas
2007-10-05
TOP PICK

FRO-N

$50.630

Frontline Ltd


A Norwegian company. Largest tanker company in the world. This is especially important to the yield hungry investor who has been playing the royalty trusts. Has about a 15% yield. Only trades at about 4X PE. Tanker stocks cash flow a significant amount of money. Try to pick it up closer to the $42 range.
Transportation
2007-10-05
TOP PICK

WTO-T

$38.450

Western Oil Sands Inc.


Being acquired by Marathon (MRO-N). He is buying it for the sum of the parts of the valuation. Basically what you are getting with the Marathon take out is cash and about 33% of stock. You also get a junior international exploreco, Western Zagros in Kurdistan, where there are significant light oil deposits. Market is not fully valuing this company.
oil/gas
2007-10-05
SELL

OBE-T

$30.550

Obsidian Energy


Would sell this one and get into Crescent Point (CPG.UN-T), which has a more sustainable model.
oil/gas
2007-10-05
SELL

PMG-T (Dead)

$17.270

Petrominerales Ltd.


Have been in Colombia for quite some time and have had pretty significant discoveries in the Llanos Basin. Stock has been running lately because they are drilling the Corcel 2 well, which should be down probably in the next 2, 3 weeks. Getting expensive at these levels and he would suggest you take some profits.
oil/gas
2007-10-05
SELL

PMT-T

$7.840

Perpetual Energy


Would not be an owner of this one right now. He would look at an affiliated company Paramount Resources (POU-T). It doesn't pay a distribution, but is probably one of the stronger energy names.
oil/gas
2007-10-05
SELL

PTR-N

$190.830

PetroChina


A subsidiary of the Chinese National Oil Company. Biggest and most profitable company in China. Very strong internationally. Essentially a duopoly in China and basically control the wholesale/retail market with Cinipaq. Stock is known to pull back hard, so would take some profits and buy back in the $150 range.
integrated oils
2007-10-05
SELL

PWI.UN-T

$26.290

Prime West Energy Trust


Has been the subject of her recent takeover from Abu Dhabi’s Taqa. It is almost trading at the deal price. Holding it for the next couple of months will give you a limited distribution. There is a slight bit of deal risk because of Alberta’s royalty review. He suggests you take your profits and run.
investment companies/funds
2017-05-29
COMMENT

General Comment

N/A


Educational Segment.  Demographics. You have two natural drivers of growth:  Growth from population growth and growth from productivity growth.  From the sum of the two we get about 1.3% growth in the world.  We have a growth problem, despite all the money being spent in the world.  We are in a low growth world.  The vast majority of the growth in the world is from China, India and Africa.  But China is near finished growing.  AFK-N and INDA-N are ETFs he likes.  Buy on pullbacks.

GENERAL COMMENT
2017-11-16
COMMENT

General Comment

N/A


Market.  WHY-X put out a news release that suggested someone would buy their deposit in BC.  The company surged and was halted, then the deal fell apart.  You have to be careful about this.  He cannot believe the kinds of things that go on in this market. 

GENERAL COMMENT
2017-05-29
DON'T BUY

BEP.UN-T

$42.710

Brookfield Renewable Energy


We are never going back to coal.  Everyone has moved off it, despite what Mr. Trump happens to say about it.  If it gets back down to the $39 area he might be tempted to play it, however.

Utilities
2013-09-16
DON'T BUY

CGG-T

$3.040

China Gold International Resources


Listed in Canada but operations are in the far east.  Is cautious because of high debt and accounting is weird.  If you are betting gold will go a lot higher it is a pretty decent bet but if not it can decline a lot.

precious metals
2007-10-05
DON'T BUY

DZR-X (Dead)

$0.400

Diaz Resources Ltd


Did quite poorly over the last couple of years. Have assets in Wilcox County, Texas and it has been tough slugging. Spent a lot of time/capital drilling big, expensive wells. Difficult to get to and difficult to drill. Asset base in Canada is in southeastern Alberta, which has been in decline.
oil/gas
2007-10-05
DON'T BUY

DZR-X (Dead)

$0.400

Diaz Resources Ltd


Did quite poorly over the last couple of years. Have assets in Wilcox County, Texas and it has been tough slugging. Spent a lot of time/capital drilling big, expensive wells. Difficult to get to and difficult to drill. Asset base in Canada is in southeastern Alberta, which has been in decline.
oil/gas
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