Stock Opinions by Dennis da Silva - Stockchase Experts
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Dennis da Silva @

On Stockchase since : Apr 2007

Managing Director & Sr Portfolio Manager at Middlefield Capital Ltd.

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Stock Opinions by Dennis da Silva - Stockchase Experts

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HOLD
Crew Energy Inc.(CR-T) 

September 28, 2018

It is one of about a dozen companies that will benefit from a positive FID statement on a west coast LNG project. He thinks the announcement of such a project could be weeks away. The company has one of the largest Montney land holdings in BC and it is trying to monetize that into real cash flow to de-risk the asset. They have had to sell other assets to keep things going.

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It is one of about a dozen companies that will benefit from a positive FID statement on a west coast LNG project. He thinks the announcement of such a project could be weeks away. The company has one of the largest Montney land holdings in BC and it is trying to monetize that into real cash flow to de-risk the asset. They have had to sell other assets to keep things going.

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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.880
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD

He has always felt the crux of the issue was around the quality of management.  Serial issuer of stocks and acquisitions – they took it too long too far.  He thinks half of the 185,000 boed could be up for sale to help deleverage the balance sheet.  They have strong assets, but he wondered how many years of inventory were necessary.  The market has not given the new management team the benefit of the doubt.  It is at all time lows in terms of valuation.  

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He has always felt the crux of the issue was around the quality of management.  Serial issuer of stocks and acquisitions – they took it too long too far.  He thinks half of the 185,000 boed could be up for sale to help deleverage the balance sheet.  They have strong assets, but he wondered how many years of inventory were necessary.  The market has not given the new management team the benefit of the doubt.  It is at all time lows in terms of valuation.  

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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$8.220
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
Birchcliff Energy Ltd.(BIR-T) 

September 28, 2018

He likes this a hold for a positive FID announcement on a west coast LNG project.  They are a drier gas play than others with a solid balance sheet. (Analysts’ price target is $6.90)

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He likes this a hold for a positive FID announcement on a west coast LNG project.  They are a drier gas play than others with a solid balance sheet. (Analysts’ price target is $6.90)

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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$5.200
Owned Owned
Yes

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HOLD
Franco-Nevada Corp.(FNV-T) 

September 28, 2018

This company has traditionally been a core hold as it tends to have lower volatility.  However, as he has become more bullish on gold, he is looking for more torque in the actual E&P list of companies at this time.  He thinks $1100 per ounce is a floor for gold prices.  (Analysts’ price target is $109)  

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This company has traditionally been a core hold as it tends to have lower volatility.  However, as he has become more bullish on gold, he is looking for more torque in the actual E&P list of companies at this time.  He thinks $1100 per ounce is a floor for gold prices.  (Analysts’ price target is $109)  

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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$80.800
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY

This company is very leveraged (5 times debt-to-cash flow), which will limit its ability to develop capital projects.  He has stayed away and was not a fan of the various joint ventures and prefers to own companies that own their own infrastructure.  

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This company is very leveraged (5 times debt-to-cash flow), which will limit its ability to develop capital projects.  He has stayed away and was not a fan of the various joint ventures and prefers to own companies that own their own infrastructure.  

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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.350
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
Suncor Energy Inc(SU-T) 

September 28, 2018

This is a core senior holding for them.  Operationally, they are second to none and Fort Hills is progressing well.  Horizon is operating and creating free cash flow.  He loves getting the dividend and sees the assets providing a long term sustainable income stream.  

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This is a core senior holding for them.  Operationally, they are second to none and Fort Hills is progressing well.  Horizon is operating and creating free cash flow.  He loves getting the dividend and sees the assets providing a long term sustainable income stream.  

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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$49.980
Owned Owned
Yes

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HOLD
Painted Pony Energy(PONY-T) 

September 28, 2018

This is very leveraged to a positive FID LNG announcement on the west coast.  It had been on a dangerous trajectory for crazy growth, but it has reigned that it.  It is not in the top four natural gas holdings for them.  

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This is very leveraged to a positive FID LNG announcement on the west coast.  It had been on a dangerous trajectory for crazy growth, but it has reigned that it.  It is not in the top four natural gas holdings for them.  

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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$3.280
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
Blackbird Energy Inc(BBI-X) 

September 28, 2018

It is in the Montney region and is doing a good job de-risking their assets.  With some external capital, production could grow by mid-2020 to 10,000 boed from current levels near 4,000 boed.  

Energy
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It is in the Montney region and is doing a good job de-risking their assets.  With some external capital, production could grow by mid-2020 to 10,000 boed from current levels near 4,000 boed.  

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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$0.340
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Tourmaline Oil Corp(TOU-T) 

September 28, 2018

The second largest natural gas producer in Canada.  Half of its value is in the infrastructure it owns.  It has been a laggard in the market, but its stock is highly correlated to natural gas prices, which is not representative of the fact only 24% of their production is sold into the depressed AECO market.  Their liquids cut is up to 20%.  A good candidate to benefit from a LNG project announcement.  Yield 1.7%.  (Analysts’ price target is $29.44)

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The second largest natural gas producer in Canada.  Half of its value is in the infrastructure it owns.  It has been a laggard in the market, but its stock is highly correlated to natural gas prices, which is not representative of the fact only 24% of their production is sold into the depressed AECO market.  Their liquids cut is up to 20%.  A good candidate to benefit from a LNG project announcement.  Yield 1.7%.  (Analysts’ price target is $29.44)

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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$22.740
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Kelt Exploration(KEL-T) 

September 28, 2018

He respects how the company wants to create a strong asset base and then sell that off, rather than constantly be on the acquisition hunt. A high liquids content of up to 40%. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $12.08)

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He respects how the company wants to create a strong asset base and then sell that off, rather than constantly be on the acquisition hunt. A high liquids content of up to 40%. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $12.08)

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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$8.410
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Cardinal Energy Ltd(CJ-T) 

September 28, 2018

Underappreciated, he thinks, and is torqued to oil (80% of production). He thinks WTI will be sustained between $70-$80 per barrel. A great dividend yield.  Yield 8%. (Analysts’ price target is $6.75)

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Underappreciated, he thinks, and is torqued to oil (80% of production). He thinks WTI will be sustained between $70-$80 per barrel. A great dividend yield.  Yield 8%. (Analysts’ price target is $6.75)

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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$5.330
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Paramount Resources(POU-T) 

September 28, 2018

(A Top Pick September 15/17 Down 38%) This is the third version of this company, he suggests.  Now a 90,000 boed producer it has stagnated with a large natural gas position.  There is inconsistency in delivering economic results.  He likes their assets, but he has gone to the sidelines to wait for that consistency to develop.  They are trying to move their portfolio to include 45% liquids.

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(A Top Pick September 15/17 Down 38%) This is the third version of this company, he suggests.  Now a 90,000 boed producer it has stagnated with a large natural gas position.  There is inconsistency in delivering economic results.  He likes their assets, but he has gone to the sidelines to wait for that consistency to develop.  They are trying to move their portfolio to include 45% liquids.

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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$15.130
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Surge Energy Inc(SGY-T) 

September 28, 2018

(A Top Pick September 15/17 Up 36%) It has turned things by deleveraging and doing a key acquisition that the market liked.  He looks forward to seeing the company trade back to normal mulitples and looks forward to a 14% return.

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(A Top Pick September 15/17 Up 36%) It has turned things by deleveraging and doing a key acquisition that the market liked.  He looks forward to seeing the company trade back to normal mulitples and looks forward to a 14% return.

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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$2.650
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Atlantic Gold Corp(AGB-X) 

September 28, 2018

(A Top Pick September 15/17 Up 12%) The company was so cheap and was beginning new production with the mine done under a fixed contract, so it was very low risk.  Now the next phase will be doubling production by exploiting satellite deposits.  

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(A Top Pick September 15/17 Up 12%) The company was so cheap and was beginning new production with the mine done under a fixed contract, so it was very low risk.  Now the next phase will be doubling production by exploiting satellite deposits.  

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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.650
Owned Owned
Yes

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N/A
General Market Comment 

March 8, 2018

Market.  Trade threats from the US don’t worry him.  It is NAFTA and especially in the energy space.  It is a guess and he is waiting on the sidelines to see what language and body language we get.  Short term we go a bit to the sidelines.  In the long term you have to pay attention and be aware of what it means if something changes.  Oil has doubled since January of 2016.  The energy index is only up 8%.  In the S&P the commodity index is at multi decade lows.  We need to see a few quarters of results before the market accepts the new price of oil near $60.  OR-T is investing in the Yukon.  The reaction has not been too positive.  He thinks this will be attractive to seniors in the next few years.

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Market.  Trade threats from the US don’t worry him.  It is NAFTA and especially in the energy space.  It is a guess and he is waiting on the sidelines to see what language and body language we get.  Short term we go a bit to the sidelines.  In the long term you have to pay attention and be aware of what it means if something changes.  Oil has doubled since January of 2016.  The energy index is only up 8%.  In the S&P the commodity index is at multi decade lows.  We need to see a few quarters of results before the market accepts the new price of oil near $60.  OR-T is investing in the Yukon.  The reaction has not been too positive.  He thinks this will be attractive to seniors in the next few years.

Unknown
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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