Stock Opinions by Dennis da Silva - Stockchase Experts
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Dennis da Silva @

On Stockchase since : Apr 2007

Managing Director & Sr Portfolio Manager at Middlefield Capital Ltd.

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Stock Opinions by Dennis da Silva - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

January 9, 2019

Market Outlook Q4 was the worst for the resource sector since 2008. It is now setting us up for a good 2019. WCS differentials are likely unsustainable at these tight levels around $9. He expects the WCS discount to be $20-$25 US/bbl and light barrels to be discounted by $10-$15 US/bbl range. About 325,000 barrels per day is curtailed as part of the Alberta government policy -- about what the market is long in Canada right now. Then when Enbridge Line 3 comes on around later in the year it will also be supportive. The US dollar has come of its peaks and he thinks this will help gold prices -- he thinks gold will get to $1350 US/oz. This will be good for gold stocks in 2019.
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Market Outlook Q4 was the worst for the resource sector since 2008. It is now setting us up for a good 2019. WCS differentials are likely unsustainable at these tight levels around $9. He expects the WCS discount to be $20-$25 US/bbl and light barrels to be discounted by $10-$15 US/bbl range. About 325,000 barrels per day is curtailed as part of the Alberta government policy -- about what the market is long in Canada right now. Then when Enbridge Line 3 comes on around later in the year it will also be supportive. The US dollar has come of its peaks and he thinks this will help gold prices -- he thinks gold will get to $1350 US/oz. This will be good for gold stocks in 2019.
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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DON'T BUY
Their plans for an Alaskan mine development saw some life in November when the new Governor there showed he was more pro-development. Unfortunately the cost to develop in this region is so great and one of the partners dropped out last year. How do you finance it, especially when environmentalists are against it?
precious metals
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Their plans for an Alaskan mine development saw some life in November when the new Governor there showed he was more pro-development. Unfortunately the cost to develop in this region is so great and one of the partners dropped out last year. How do you finance it, especially when environmentalists are against it?
precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$0.870
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Painted Pony Energy(PONY-T) 

January 9, 2019

A BC station 2 gas producer -- right at the further point from markets. He is focusing on condensate rich producers instead that see prices linked more to oil prices. AECO prices yesterday were $1.13 /GJ.
oil/gas
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A BC station 2 gas producer -- right at the further point from markets. He is focusing on condensate rich producers instead that see prices linked more to oil prices. AECO prices yesterday were $1.13 /GJ.
oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.430
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
The only one he likes in this sector is Secure Energy Services. Companies are trying to figure out their activity levels and this will determine how equipment will move between Canada and the US. This is one he would not be buying right now.
oil/gas
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The only one he likes in this sector is Secure Energy Services. Companies are trying to figure out their activity levels and this will determine how equipment will move between Canada and the US. This is one he would not be buying right now.
oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$5.240
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Hudbay Minerals Inc.(HBM-T) 

January 9, 2019

Hudbay vs Teck. These are two different companies. Teck being more focused on coal, copper and zinc. Hudbay is more copper and zinc. He would prefer Teck. As these do not provide any yield, he does not stay on top of these ones. He would stay on the sidelines for these given the trade issues globally. The next Presidential election will likely help define the future -- it will be uncertain until then. China will continue to be a big consumer and supply is being curtailed at these low commodity prices. The inventory situation will be improving over time, but it is still too early.
precious metals
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Hudbay vs Teck. These are two different companies. Teck being more focused on coal, copper and zinc. Hudbay is more copper and zinc. He would prefer Teck. As these do not provide any yield, he does not stay on top of these ones. He would stay on the sidelines for these given the trade issues globally. The next Presidential election will likely help define the future -- it will be uncertain until then. China will continue to be a big consumer and supply is being curtailed at these low commodity prices. The inventory situation will be improving over time, but it is still too early.
precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$6.880
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Hudbay vs Teck. These are two different companies. Teck being more focused on coal, copper and zinc. Hudbay is more copper and zinc. He would prefer Teck. As these do not provide any yield, he does not stay on top of these ones. He would stay on the sidelines for these given the trade issues globally. The next Presidential election will likely help define the future -- it will be uncertain until then. China will continue to be a big consumer and supply is being curtailed at these low commodity prices. The inventory situation will be improving over time, but it is still too early.
precious metals
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Hudbay vs Teck. These are two different companies. Teck being more focused on coal, copper and zinc. Hudbay is more copper and zinc. He would prefer Teck. As these do not provide any yield, he does not stay on top of these ones. He would stay on the sidelines for these given the trade issues globally. The next Presidential election will likely help define the future -- it will be uncertain until then. China will continue to be a big consumer and supply is being curtailed at these low commodity prices. The inventory situation will be improving over time, but it is still too early.
precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$30.210
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Tahoe Resources(THO-T) 

January 9, 2019

They have had everything go wrong that could. Losing the social license in Guatemala for their silver mine and other issues. Pan American has come in being very opportunistic to give a relatively low-ball bid. There may be some value opportunities going forward, but he would prefer to not have to wait to see that develop. He sees better opportunities.
Mining
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They have had everything go wrong that could. Losing the social license in Guatemala for their silver mine and other issues. Pan American has come in being very opportunistic to give a relatively low-ball bid. There may be some value opportunities going forward, but he would prefer to not have to wait to see that develop. He sees better opportunities.
Mining
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$5.070
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Pan American Silver(PAAS-T) 

January 9, 2019

They have had everything go wrong that could. Losing the social license in Guatemala for their silver mine and other issues. Pan American has come in being very opportunistic to give a relatively low-ball bid. There may be some value opportunities going forward, but he would prefer to not have to wait to see that develop. He sees better opportunities.
precious metals
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They have had everything go wrong that could. Losing the social license in Guatemala for their silver mine and other issues. Pan American has come in being very opportunistic to give a relatively low-ball bid. There may be some value opportunities going forward, but he would prefer to not have to wait to see that develop. He sees better opportunities.
precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$20.400
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Yamana Gold Inc.(YRI-T) 

January 9, 2019

The company has wrestled with getting all their assets humming. He sees other operators that are more consistent. He would rather pay more for a consistent management team. He feels they are stuck in the mud.
precious metals
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The company has wrestled with getting all their assets humming. He sees other operators that are more consistent. He would rather pay more for a consistent management team. He feels they are stuck in the mud.
precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$3.280
Owned Owned
No

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WATCH
New Gold Inc.(NGD-T) 

January 9, 2019

A company that has struggled with large mines that take so long to get going. Rainy River has been their Achilles heel. They put out a good update, but one quarter does not make the mine. He wants to see several quarters of success. Patience is needed, but there is still significant risk for this project.
precious metals
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A company that has struggled with large mines that take so long to get going. Rainy River has been their Achilles heel. They put out a good update, but one quarter does not make the mine. He wants to see several quarters of success. Patience is needed, but there is still significant risk for this project.
precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.610
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Atlantic Gold Corp(AGB-X) 

January 9, 2019

(A Top Pick Mar 08/18, Down 7%) Compared to the gold space in general the result is not disappointing. A small starter, low cost mine in Nova Scotia that he expects may eventually become an acquisition target. He wants to see them develop the project carefully. He will continue to hold it.
precious metals
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(A Top Pick Mar 08/18, Down 7%) Compared to the gold space in general the result is not disappointing. A small starter, low cost mine in Nova Scotia that he expects may eventually become an acquisition target. He wants to see them develop the project carefully. He will continue to hold it.
precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.750
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Cardinal Energy Ltd(CJ-T) 

January 9, 2019

(A Top Pick Mar 08/18, Down 40%) Up to Q4 it was looking pretty good, but with differentials widening it got hammered. The stock price has not responded well since the differentials have tightened. He likes their low decline rate. They shut-in about 15% of their production. They did the prudent thing by cutting the dividend. He continues to hold it. Yield 5%.
oil/gas
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(A Top Pick Mar 08/18, Down 40%) Up to Q4 it was looking pretty good, but with differentials widening it got hammered. The stock price has not responded well since the differentials have tightened. He likes their low decline rate. They shut-in about 15% of their production. They did the prudent thing by cutting the dividend. He continues to hold it. Yield 5%.
oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$2.340
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Tourmaline Oil Corp(TOU-T) 

January 9, 2019

(A Top Pick Mar 08/18, Down 8%) One of the biggest gas producers in Canada. He is surprised it has been as stable as it has. It has done a good job with hedging and market diversification. Still a core holding.
oil/gas
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(A Top Pick Mar 08/18, Down 8%) One of the biggest gas producers in Canada. He is surprised it has been as stable as it has. It has done a good job with hedging and market diversification. Still a core holding.
oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$17.870
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Suncor Energy Inc(SU-T) 

January 9, 2019

A premiere holding in the Canadian energy space and a core holding. They are now over the big capex spend for the Fort Hills project and now should benefit from free cash-flow for the next few years. He likes where they are positioned. They are more expensive than others and he likes the growing dividend. You buy this and tuck it away.
integrated oils
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A premiere holding in the Canadian energy space and a core holding. They are now over the big capex spend for the Fort Hills project and now should benefit from free cash-flow for the next few years. He likes where they are positioned. They are more expensive than others and he likes the growing dividend. You buy this and tuck it away.
integrated oils
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$40.560
Owned Owned
Yes

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WAIT
Goldcorp Inc(G-T) 

January 9, 2019

The success of the 20/20/20 goals on cost reductions and production and cash flow growth will be the real test. They are trying to increase transparency of their strategy, now can they prove up on the execution? He would rather pay a little more for more consistency.
precious metals
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The success of the 20/20/20 goals on cost reductions and production and cash flow growth will be the real test. They are trying to increase transparency of their strategy, now can they prove up on the execution? He would rather pay a little more for more consistency.
precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$12.880
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
Torc Oil & Gas Ltd(TOG-T) 

January 9, 2019

The shares paid to CPP as a dividend is dilutive in a traditional sense, but it does preserve cash for other shareholders. It has light oil and is working on asset preservation. He has no issue with the share being paid. He will continue to hold.
oil/gas
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The shares paid to CPP as a dividend is dilutive in a traditional sense, but it does preserve cash for other shareholders. It has light oil and is working on asset preservation. He has no issue with the share being paid. He will continue to hold.
oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$4.730
Owned Owned
Yes

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SPECULATIVE BUY
Royal Nickel Corp (RNX-T) 

January 9, 2019

They have announced a gold find in Australia recently. He thinks it is very early days and they need to prove things up. He thinks investors are looking for this company to be acquired. He hopes they are successful, but views it as speculative at this point.
Mining
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They have announced a gold find in Australia recently. He thinks it is very early days and they need to prove things up. He thinks investors are looking for this company to be acquired. He hopes they are successful, but views it as speculative at this point.
Mining
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$0.470
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
Surge Energy Inc(SGY-T) 

January 9, 2019

He likes the dividend. They postponed a dividend increase late last year on the heels of a recent acquisition. It is too early to know if that decision will change. He is optimistic differentials will help their light oil production. He will continue to hold it. The dividend is sustainable he thinks.
oil/gas
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He likes the dividend. They postponed a dividend increase late last year on the heels of a recent acquisition. It is too early to know if that decision will change. He is optimistic differentials will help their light oil production. He will continue to hold it. The dividend is sustainable he thinks.
oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.530
Owned Owned
Yes

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HOLD
Argonaut Gold(AR-T) 

January 9, 2019

He has owned this in the past. He likes their approach to mining in Mexico. Growth requires relatively low capital expenditures. They have low costs (under $900 US/oz.) and are relatively low risk. Tougher regulations are likely ahead for them in Mexico.
Mining
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He has owned this in the past. He likes their approach to mining in Mexico. Growth requires relatively low capital expenditures. They have low costs (under $900 US/oz.) and are relatively low risk. Tougher regulations are likely ahead for them in Mexico.
Mining
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.660
Owned Owned
No

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TOP PICK
Enbridge(ENB-T) 

January 9, 2019

His favorite Canadian pick. They have cleaned up the corporate structure and likes the 10% dividend growth. They have over $7 billion in asset sales and this helps reduce leverage. It trades at a discount to its peer group. Line 3 will start filling in June and the US side will fill later this year. This should be a high-$50 stock. Yield 6.5%. (Analysts’ price target is $53.86)
oil/gas pipelines
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His favorite Canadian pick. They have cleaned up the corporate structure and likes the 10% dividend growth. They have over $7 billion in asset sales and this helps reduce leverage. It trades at a discount to its peer group. Line 3 will start filling in June and the US side will fill later this year. This should be a high-$50 stock. Yield 6.5%. (Analysts’ price target is $53.86)
oil/gas pipelines
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$45.700
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Kelt Exploration(KEL-T) 

January 9, 2019

A natural gas producer with liquids rich output. Management has a large holding. A core holding for him. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $8.80)
oil/gas
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A natural gas producer with liquids rich output. Management has a large holding. A core holding for him. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $8.80)
oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$5.080
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Harte Gold Corp(HRT-T) 

January 9, 2019

Ontario gold production. It has started small but expanded through satellite operations. He expects good growth going forward. Yield 0%.
Mining
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Ontario gold production. It has started small but expanded through satellite operations. He expects good growth going forward. Yield 0%.
Mining
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$0.420
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

September 28, 2018

Market. The S&P500 has been having the longest bull-run in its history.  It is hard for investors to focus on beaten down areas, like resource stocks, when everything else is doing well.  The US tax cuts and deregulation have contributed to a breath of fresh air to the market.  A strong US market should be good for base metals globally, as long as we can wade through the tariff issues.  With countries agreeing to reduce or eliminate Iranian imports, it should allow WTI to stay between $70-$80 per barrel.        

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Market. The S&P500 has been having the longest bull-run in its history.  It is hard for investors to focus on beaten down areas, like resource stocks, when everything else is doing well.  The US tax cuts and deregulation have contributed to a breath of fresh air to the market.  A strong US market should be good for base metals globally, as long as we can wade through the tariff issues.  With countries agreeing to reduce or eliminate Iranian imports, it should allow WTI to stay between $70-$80 per barrel.        

Unknown
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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BUY
Whitecap Resources(WCP-T) 

September 28, 2018

This is a name that is well held institutionally and in the retail market.  There may be some acquisition overhang that will ultimately be beneficial.  Management will do small acquisitions, but the big deals are likely done he thinks.  This company has an attractive payout ratio (near 80%) and so the dividend should be sustainable.  It has been a core holding of theirs for years.  

Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
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This is a name that is well held institutionally and in the retail market.  There may be some acquisition overhang that will ultimately be beneficial.  Management will do small acquisitions, but the big deals are likely done he thinks.  This company has an attractive payout ratio (near 80%) and so the dividend should be sustainable.  It has been a core holding of theirs for years.  

Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$7.840
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Tahoe Resources(THO-T) 

September 28, 2018

This is a name he has avoided due to the uncertainty of their Guatemala silver mine investment. Social license is a big issue for some of these countries. Half of their net asset value is in this country. He worries about the potential for public company conflict with the various levels of government there.

Mining
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This is a name he has avoided due to the uncertainty of their Guatemala silver mine investment. Social license is a big issue for some of these countries. Half of their net asset value is in this country. He worries about the potential for public company conflict with the various levels of government there.

Mining
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$3.570
Owned Owned
No

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WATCH
Alamos Gold Inc(AGI-T) 

September 28, 2018

It is an under-appreciated name that fell out of favour with a previous large Canadian acquisition that the market felt they over paid for.  He likes the geographic mix between Canada and Mexico.  He is watching for further developments.

precious metals
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It is an under-appreciated name that fell out of favour with a previous large Canadian acquisition that the market felt they over paid for.  He likes the geographic mix between Canada and Mexico.  He is watching for further developments.

precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$5.930
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Royal Nickel Corp (RNX-T) 

September 28, 2018

They were trying to sell their Australian gold assets and found gold in the process.  There is much talk of the Quebec nickel project that would require a $1 billion of investment.  They ran out of patience waiting for projects to be developed, so have not bought back into it.  

Mining
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They were trying to sell their Australian gold assets and found gold in the process.  There is much talk of the Quebec nickel project that would require a $1 billion of investment.  They ran out of patience waiting for projects to be developed, so have not bought back into it.  

Mining
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$0.890
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Hudbay Minerals Inc.(HBM-T) 

September 28, 2018

There is a more technical based CEO there now. The company has gone through good expansion and now they are focusing on permitting in the Arizona mine. It has been a lengthy process to get approvals and expects 2019 to see approval. He is generally very light on holding base metals, especially in the face of current trade disputes.

precious metals
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There is a more technical based CEO there now. The company has gone through good expansion and now they are focusing on permitting in the Arizona mine. It has been a lengthy process to get approvals and expects 2019 to see approval. He is generally very light on holding base metals, especially in the face of current trade disputes.

precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$6.540
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
Parex Resources Inc.(PXT-T) 

September 28, 2018

A Colombian oil producer that they own currently. The company recently put itself up for sale. He thinks this company feels some of the assets may have reached a maturity point, especially the Colombian assets. He thinks the company is under-valued by about $2-$3 per share and that is why they continue to hold it.

oil/gas
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A Colombian oil producer that they own currently. The company recently put itself up for sale. He thinks this company feels some of the assets may have reached a maturity point, especially the Colombian assets. He thinks the company is under-valued by about $2-$3 per share and that is why they continue to hold it.

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$21.950
Owned Owned
Yes

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HOLD
Trevali Mining Corp(TV-T) 

September 28, 2018

He has owned this periodically, especially when production started in Peru and New Brunswick.  Now they have diversified further into Africa.  It is the largest independent iron producer and the balance sheet is impeccable.  He also likes their leverage to zinc.  He also worries about the social license of a public company in some of these countries.  

Mining
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He has owned this periodically, especially when production started in Peru and New Brunswick.  Now they have diversified further into Africa.  It is the largest independent iron producer and the balance sheet is impeccable.  He also likes their leverage to zinc.  He also worries about the social license of a public company in some of these countries.  

Mining
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$0.730
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
Crew Energy Inc.(CR-T) 

September 28, 2018

It is one of about a dozen companies that will benefit from a positive FID statement on a west coast LNG project. He thinks the announcement of such a project could be weeks away. The company has one of the largest Montney land holdings in BC and it is trying to monetize that into real cash flow to de-risk the asset. They have had to sell other assets to keep things going.

oil/gas
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It is one of about a dozen companies that will benefit from a positive FID statement on a west coast LNG project. He thinks the announcement of such a project could be weeks away. The company has one of the largest Montney land holdings in BC and it is trying to monetize that into real cash flow to de-risk the asset. They have had to sell other assets to keep things going.

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.880
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD

He has always felt the crux of the issue was around the quality of management.  Serial issuer of stocks and acquisitions – they took it too long too far.  He thinks half of the 185,000 boed could be up for sale to help deleverage the balance sheet.  They have strong assets, but he wondered how many years of inventory were necessary.  The market has not given the new management team the benefit of the doubt.  It is at all time lows in terms of valuation.  

oil/gas
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He has always felt the crux of the issue was around the quality of management.  Serial issuer of stocks and acquisitions – they took it too long too far.  He thinks half of the 185,000 boed could be up for sale to help deleverage the balance sheet.  They have strong assets, but he wondered how many years of inventory were necessary.  The market has not given the new management team the benefit of the doubt.  It is at all time lows in terms of valuation.  

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$8.220
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
Birchcliff Energy Ltd.(BIR-T) 

September 28, 2018

He likes this a hold for a positive FID announcement on a west coast LNG project.  They are a drier gas play than others with a solid balance sheet. (Analysts’ price target is $6.90)

oil/gas
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He likes this a hold for a positive FID announcement on a west coast LNG project.  They are a drier gas play than others with a solid balance sheet. (Analysts’ price target is $6.90)

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$5.200
Owned Owned
Yes

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HOLD
Franco-Nevada Corp.(FNV-T) 

September 28, 2018

This company has traditionally been a core hold as it tends to have lower volatility.  However, as he has become more bullish on gold, he is looking for more torque in the actual E&P list of companies at this time.  He thinks $1100 per ounce is a floor for gold prices.  (Analysts’ price target is $109)  

precious metals
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This company has traditionally been a core hold as it tends to have lower volatility.  However, as he has become more bullish on gold, he is looking for more torque in the actual E&P list of companies at this time.  He thinks $1100 per ounce is a floor for gold prices.  (Analysts’ price target is $109)  

precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$80.800
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY

This company is very leveraged (5 times debt-to-cash flow), which will limit its ability to develop capital projects.  He has stayed away and was not a fan of the various joint ventures and prefers to own companies that own their own infrastructure.  

oil/gas
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This company is very leveraged (5 times debt-to-cash flow), which will limit its ability to develop capital projects.  He has stayed away and was not a fan of the various joint ventures and prefers to own companies that own their own infrastructure.  

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.350
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
Suncor Energy Inc(SU-T) 

September 28, 2018

This is a core senior holding for them.  Operationally, they are second to none and Fort Hills is progressing well.  Horizon is operating and creating free cash flow.  He loves getting the dividend and sees the assets providing a long term sustainable income stream.  

integrated oils
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This is a core senior holding for them.  Operationally, they are second to none and Fort Hills is progressing well.  Horizon is operating and creating free cash flow.  He loves getting the dividend and sees the assets providing a long term sustainable income stream.  

integrated oils
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$49.980
Owned Owned
Yes

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HOLD
Painted Pony Energy(PONY-T) 

September 28, 2018

This is very leveraged to a positive FID LNG announcement on the west coast.  It had been on a dangerous trajectory for crazy growth, but it has reigned that it.  It is not in the top four natural gas holdings for them.  

oil/gas
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This is very leveraged to a positive FID LNG announcement on the west coast.  It had been on a dangerous trajectory for crazy growth, but it has reigned that it.  It is not in the top four natural gas holdings for them.  

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$3.280
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
Blackbird Energy Inc(BBI-X) 

September 28, 2018

It is in the Montney region and is doing a good job de-risking their assets.  With some external capital, production could grow by mid-2020 to 10,000 boed from current levels near 4,000 boed.  

Energy
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It is in the Montney region and is doing a good job de-risking their assets.  With some external capital, production could grow by mid-2020 to 10,000 boed from current levels near 4,000 boed.  

Energy
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$0.340
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Tourmaline Oil Corp(TOU-T) 

September 28, 2018

The second largest natural gas producer in Canada.  Half of its value is in the infrastructure it owns.  It has been a laggard in the market, but its stock is highly correlated to natural gas prices, which is not representative of the fact only 24% of their production is sold into the depressed AECO market.  Their liquids cut is up to 20%.  A good candidate to benefit from a LNG project announcement.  Yield 1.7%.  (Analysts’ price target is $29.44)

oil/gas
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The second largest natural gas producer in Canada.  Half of its value is in the infrastructure it owns.  It has been a laggard in the market, but its stock is highly correlated to natural gas prices, which is not representative of the fact only 24% of their production is sold into the depressed AECO market.  Their liquids cut is up to 20%.  A good candidate to benefit from a LNG project announcement.  Yield 1.7%.  (Analysts’ price target is $29.44)

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$22.740
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Kelt Exploration(KEL-T) 

September 28, 2018

He respects how the company wants to create a strong asset base and then sell that off, rather than constantly be on the acquisition hunt. A high liquids content of up to 40%. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $12.08)

oil/gas
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He respects how the company wants to create a strong asset base and then sell that off, rather than constantly be on the acquisition hunt. A high liquids content of up to 40%. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $12.08)

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$8.410
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Cardinal Energy Ltd(CJ-T) 

September 28, 2018

Underappreciated, he thinks, and is torqued to oil (80% of production). He thinks WTI will be sustained between $70-$80 per barrel. A great dividend yield.  Yield 8%. (Analysts’ price target is $6.75)

oil/gas
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Underappreciated, he thinks, and is torqued to oil (80% of production). He thinks WTI will be sustained between $70-$80 per barrel. A great dividend yield.  Yield 8%. (Analysts’ price target is $6.75)

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$5.330
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Paramount Resources(POU-T) 

September 28, 2018

(A Top Pick September 15/17 Down 38%) This is the third version of this company, he suggests.  Now a 90,000 boed producer it has stagnated with a large natural gas position.  There is inconsistency in delivering economic results.  He likes their assets, but he has gone to the sidelines to wait for that consistency to develop.  They are trying to move their portfolio to include 45% liquids.

oil/gas
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(A Top Pick September 15/17 Down 38%) This is the third version of this company, he suggests.  Now a 90,000 boed producer it has stagnated with a large natural gas position.  There is inconsistency in delivering economic results.  He likes their assets, but he has gone to the sidelines to wait for that consistency to develop.  They are trying to move their portfolio to include 45% liquids.

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$15.130
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Surge Energy Inc(SGY-T) 

September 28, 2018

(A Top Pick September 15/17 Up 36%) It has turned things by deleveraging and doing a key acquisition that the market liked.  He looks forward to seeing the company trade back to normal mulitples and looks forward to a 14% return.

oil/gas
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(A Top Pick September 15/17 Up 36%) It has turned things by deleveraging and doing a key acquisition that the market liked.  He looks forward to seeing the company trade back to normal mulitples and looks forward to a 14% return.

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$2.650
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Atlantic Gold Corp(AGB-X) 

September 28, 2018

(A Top Pick September 15/17 Up 12%) The company was so cheap and was beginning new production with the mine done under a fixed contract, so it was very low risk.  Now the next phase will be doubling production by exploiting satellite deposits.  

precious metals
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(A Top Pick September 15/17 Up 12%) The company was so cheap and was beginning new production with the mine done under a fixed contract, so it was very low risk.  Now the next phase will be doubling production by exploiting satellite deposits.  

precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.650
Owned Owned
Yes

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N/A
General Market Comment 

March 8, 2018

Market.  Trade threats from the US don’t worry him.  It is NAFTA and especially in the energy space.  It is a guess and he is waiting on the sidelines to see what language and body language we get.  Short term we go a bit to the sidelines.  In the long term you have to pay attention and be aware of what it means if something changes.  Oil has doubled since January of 2016.  The energy index is only up 8%.  In the S&P the commodity index is at multi decade lows.  We need to see a few quarters of results before the market accepts the new price of oil near $60.  OR-T is investing in the Yukon.  The reaction has not been too positive.  He thinks this will be attractive to seniors in the next few years.

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Market.  Trade threats from the US don’t worry him.  It is NAFTA and especially in the energy space.  It is a guess and he is waiting on the sidelines to see what language and body language we get.  Short term we go a bit to the sidelines.  In the long term you have to pay attention and be aware of what it means if something changes.  Oil has doubled since January of 2016.  The energy index is only up 8%.  In the S&P the commodity index is at multi decade lows.  We need to see a few quarters of results before the market accepts the new price of oil near $60.  OR-T is investing in the Yukon.  The reaction has not been too positive.  He thinks this will be attractive to seniors in the next few years.

Unknown
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Apr 5/17, Down 6.73%)  It would have been terrible to be here in June of last year.  They under promise and over deliver.  This is a core way to dabble in energy.

oil/gas
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(A Top Pick Apr 5/17, Down 6.73%)  It would have been terrible to be here in June of last year.  They under promise and over deliver.  This is a core way to dabble in energy.

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$6.160
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Kirkland Lake Gold(KL-T) 

March 8, 2018

(A Top Pick Apr 5/17, Up 99.9%)  He took his proceeds and followed management into Kirkland Lake.  It is the people, not the companies that he follows.  He made a tidy return.

precious metals
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(A Top Pick Apr 5/17, Up 99.9%)  He took his proceeds and followed management into Kirkland Lake.  It is the people, not the companies that he follows.  He made a tidy return.

precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$20.160
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Kelt Exploration(KEL-T) 

March 8, 2018

(A Top Pick Apr 5/17, Down 8.80%)  It is viewed as a gas company.  It has outperformed, but it is still caught up a bit in being a gas company when in fact they have oil. 

oil/gas
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(A Top Pick Apr 5/17, Down 8.80%)  It is viewed as a gas company.  It has outperformed, but it is still caught up a bit in being a gas company when in fact they have oil. 

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$6.370
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK

A great little underappreciated story.  Nova Scotia.  It took three years to build.  It is dirt cheap.  They have two other satellite deposits that can expand the project.  They are going to explore them in order to discover resources to go on beyond 10 years.  (Analysts’ target: $2.46).

precious metals
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A great little underappreciated story.  Nova Scotia.  It took three years to build.  It is dirt cheap.  They have two other satellite deposits that can expand the project.  They are going to explore them in order to discover resources to go on beyond 10 years.  (Analysts’ target: $2.46).

precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.860
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK

Canadian oil producer.  10% yield that is sustainable.  It trades at a material discount to its average.  Cash flow per share has not gone down but the share price has.  You can’t stay this negative for long.  (Analysts’ target: $6.35).

oil/gas
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Canadian oil producer.  10% yield that is sustainable.  It trades at a material discount to its average.  Cash flow per share has not gone down but the share price has.  You can’t stay this negative for long.  (Analysts’ target: $6.35).

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$4.190
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK

Early 2012 it traded at the same level.  The production has gone up 9 times since then.  Earnings have gone up 5 times.  The stock is flat.  The company has created significant value. 80% of their growth has been organic.  (Analysts’ target: $27.14).

oil/gas
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Early 2012 it traded at the same level.  The production has gone up 9 times since then.  Earnings have gone up 5 times.  The stock is flat.  The company has created significant value. 80% of their growth has been organic.  (Analysts’ target: $27.14).

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$19.890
Owned Owned
Yes

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HOLD
Surge Energy Inc(SGY-T) 

March 8, 2018

Good management and their 5 year plant tries to balance sustainable dividend and capital investment.  It is not a well owned stock, almost 80% retail.  Through the down turn management have been able to demonstrate the sustainability of the business model.  Healthy growth and efficiently bringing debt down.  He looks for moderate capital appreciation. 

oil/gas
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Good management and their 5 year plant tries to balance sustainable dividend and capital investment.  It is not a well owned stock, almost 80% retail.  Through the down turn management have been able to demonstrate the sustainability of the business model.  Healthy growth and efficiently bringing debt down.  He looks for moderate capital appreciation. 

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.830
Owned Owned
Yes

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HOLD

He is seeing good things about the LNG project with Shell.  There is a feeling that it could be a project they move forward with this summer.  Drier gas is the lowest on the pedestal that investors are looking for. 

oil/gas
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0 comments

He is seeing good things about the LNG project with Shell.  There is a feeling that it could be a project they move forward with this summer.  Drier gas is the lowest on the pedestal that investors are looking for. 

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$2.950
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY

It is down big time.  You can see how the market feels.  They have a vast resource.  He has to take a short term trade on the believe that LNG will go forward. 

oil/gas
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It is down big time.  You can see how the market feels.  They have a vast resource.  He has to take a short term trade on the believe that LNG will go forward. 

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.910
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD

Every single name is at a 52 week or longer low.  This is a core holding if you are looking for yield in the energy space.  It has a good management team and track record.  They take some backlash for M&A activity.  He likes it for the long term.  You have to put the charts aside.

Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
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0 comments

Every single name is at a 52 week or longer low.  This is a core holding if you are looking for yield in the energy space.  It has a good management team and track record.  They take some backlash for M&A activity.  He likes it for the long term.  You have to put the charts aside.

Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$7.690
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Tahoe Resources(THO-T) 

March 8, 2018

Half of this company is a Guatemalan mine that went through social unrest and a shutdown.  People want to see how this starts again.  He used to own it but got out when it got a little pricier.  It took a 50% correction.  You will see a slow revaluation. 

Mining
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Half of this company is a Guatemalan mine that went through social unrest and a shutdown.  People want to see how this starts again.  He used to own it but got out when it got a little pricier.  It took a 50% correction.  You will see a slow revaluation. 

Mining
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$6.100
Owned Owned
No

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BUY

He continues to like the name.  It has been a frustrating trade. They did a big deal, acquiring some big mines in west Africa.  It is the largest non-senior producer of Zinc in the world.

Mining
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0 comments

He continues to like the name.  It has been a frustrating trade. They did a big deal, acquiring some big mines in west Africa.  It is the largest non-senior producer of Zinc in the world.

Mining
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$1.330
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Harte Gold Corp(HRT-T) 

March 8, 2018

They are mining gold in Ontario in the second half of this year.  He has been focusing on tiering his risk.  He likes producers and these guys will be in production in a year or two, perhaps by the end of this year.  At Canadian prices, Gold prices are tremendous.  There is visibility in their production. 

Mining
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They are mining gold in Ontario in the second half of this year.  He has been focusing on tiering his risk.  He likes producers and these guys will be in production in a year or two, perhaps by the end of this year.  At Canadian prices, Gold prices are tremendous.  There is visibility in their production. 

Mining
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$0.435
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY

The grand daddy of Columbian oil producers.  You get premium pricing, being outside of North America.  It is a goto name in the International space.  They will grow organically.

oil/gas
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The grand daddy of Columbian oil producers.  You get premium pricing, being outside of North America.  It is a goto name in the International space.  They will grow organically.

oil/gas
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$18.190
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY

They were a little bit light in revenue.  There is no issue that they can grow as companies build out their mines.  It can be sleepy and boring but he likes that.

precious metals
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They were a little bit light in revenue.  There is no issue that they can grow as companies build out their mines.  It can be sleepy and boring but he likes that.

precious metals
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Dennis da Silva

Managing D, Middlefield Capital ...

Price Price
$87.360
Owned Owned
Unknown

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