Opinions by Andrew Guy, CFA | StockChase
296
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Feb 2007

Sentry Select Capital Corp.
The Exchange Tower130 King Street West, Suite 2850Toronto, ONM5X 1A4
T: 416-861-8729 F: 416-364-1197 info@sentryselect.com
http://www.sentryselect.com/


Opinions by Andrew Guy, CFA



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Date Signal Chart Company Opinion
2009-09-04
COMMENT

AGU-T

$53.890

Agrium


Fertilizers. Well diversified. Shareholder friendly and increases their dividend. Very disciplined approach. Very strong return on capital. 0.23% dividend.
chemicals
2009-09-04
DON'T BUY

AIG-N

$40.050

American International Group


Very speculative. Have a huge insurance company that needs to break itself up. Has only kept going because of lifelines from the US government. The government has the right to convert its holdings into shares, which could reduce individual shareholders holdings.
insurance
2009-09-04
DON'T BUY

BAM.A-T

$23.280

Brookfield Asset Management (A)


Have a number of different assets in different fields. Recapitalized Brookfield Renewable Power Fund (BRC.UN-T) (formerly Great Lakes Hydro Fund) and have an opportunity to continue to build as part of their asset book. Very smart management. Trading around their NAV. Too expensive.
management/diversified
2009-09-04
COMMENT

BB-T

$84.400

BlackBerry


Significant challenges in that as it moves more into consumer focused it becomes more susceptible competition from new products coming out and could be more volatile. Generate very good returns on capital. Strong free cash flow. Would be more excited if they paid a dividend.
electrical/electronic
2009-09-04
PAST TOP PICK

DEO-N

$63.300

Diageo PLC


(A Top Pick Oct 14/08. Up 2.82%.) Largest liquor company globally. Very disciplined approach to return on capital. Paying down debt and increasing dividends.
food processing
2009-09-04
BUY

FTS-T

$25.190

Fortis Inc.


Regulated utility. In the last few years have done a great job of diversifying but into regulated businesses that they know very well. Stable, strong free cash flow. Good management.
electrical utilities
2009-09-04
DON'T BUY

LB-T

$38.320

Laurentian Bank


Regional bank based largely in Quebec. Has done a great job over the past few years of improving its returns on capital. Being a smaller regional bank, they are more susceptible to very focused economic situations. For a Quebec play he would prefer National Bank (NA-T).
banks
2009-09-04
DON'T BUY

MBT-T (Dead)

$32.870

Manitoba Telecom Services


Telco in Manitoba. Good job but growth is limited. Bought the old AT&T and are trying to compete against BCE (BCE-T) and Telus (T-T) in downtown Toronto. Tax losses allow them to pay a generous dividend of 8%. Comfortable that they can sustain the dividend but questions if they can grow it. Prefers Telus (T-T), Rogers (RCI.B-T) or even BCE (BCE-T).
telephone utilities
2009-09-04
COMMENT

MRK-N

$30.700

Merck & Company


Pharmaceutical. More disciplined approach so they've been generating very strong free cash flow. A couple of their strong drugs will be coming off patent in a couple of years. In the process of merging with Schering-Plough (SGP-N). If you were going to pick a name, he would prefer Abbott (ABT-N). 5% dividend yield.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
2009-09-04
BUY

MX-T

$20.470

Methanex Corp


Generates strong return on capital, shareholder friendly and focused on their particular niche. This makes it an attractive business from a bottom up point of view but methanol production is a cyclical product. You want to pick your timing very carefully. If you have a longer-term outlook such as 3 years, it could be attractive. Dividend of 3.46%.
chemicals
2009-09-04
DON'T BUY

PFE-N

$16.390

Pfizer Inc


Largest drug company globally. Very strong number of products but along with most of the big pharmaceutical companies there are a large number of drugs that come off patent. About 25% of their earnings comes from one drug, Lipitor and when it comes off patent it will have a big effect on their earnings. There are better places to be.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
2009-09-04
COMMENT

POT-T

$97.180

Potash Corp of Saskatchewan


Fertilizers. Good returns on capital and have strong balance sheets but are not dividend friendly. A seasonal play. Possibly November/December would be a better time to play.
integrated mines
2009-09-04
BUY

PPL-T

$15.140

Pembina Pipeline Corp


Generates strong return on capital, pay out strong dividends and have growth. 10.3% yield should be safe.
pipelines
2009-09-04
TOP PICK

PWF-T

$29.280

Power Financial Corp


Great history on dividends. Double digits, about 50% annual return on dividend growth. Allows you to participate in the recovery of the financial sector through the assets they own. Very well run.
finance/leasing
2009-09-04
TOP PICK

RY-T

$56.400

Royal Bank


This and Toronto Dominion (TD-T) (See Past Top Picks) are the 2 best managed Canadian banks. At this time, this one is the better pick because of the diversification of its assets and the strong management.
banks
2009-09-04
TOP PICK

SPGI-N

$29.100

S&P Global Inc


Very good long-term business. Double-digit return on capital. Consistent 10% a year dividend growth. Attractive level. Owns Business Week, a number of TV channels and publishes schoolbooks. Also owns S&P 500.
publishing/printing
2009-09-04
BUY

SU-T

$34.000

Suncor Energy Inc


An attractive play right now as you get a rebound in oil prices. PetroCan that they acquired is an attractive asset. They'll be able to take a lot of costs out of this.
integrated oils
2009-09-04
PAST TOP PICK

TD-T

$67.200

Toronto Dominion


(A Top Pick Oct 14/08. Up 18.27%.) This and Royal Bank (RY-T) are the 2 most consistent performers in Canadian banks. (See Top Picks.) Increased its dividend in the later part of last year. US assets have done very well.
banks
2009-09-04
PAST TOP PICK

TEVA-N

$51.160

Teva Pharmaceutical


(A Top Pick Oct 14/08. Up 23.38%.) World's largest generic drug company. Also have some branded drugs that are doing very well.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
2009-09-04
BUY

TRI-T

$34.260

Thomson Reuters Corp


Very strong balance sheet. Strong returns on capital over time. Steady increase of dividends. In a competitive sector but with the merger with Reuters last year it has ended up in a duopoly in information to the desktop.
publishing/printing
2009-09-04
HOLD

Y-T

$4.850

Yellow Media Inc


A business in transition and is in a difficult situation. Moving from Yellow Page books to online services. Declining advertising revenue has happened much quicker than they can ramp up online advertising. A lot of the bad news is built into the price. Have a proven balance sheet and a strong free cash flow. 16.6% yield.
communications/media
2009-04-17
COMMENT

General Comment

N/A


We are closer to the bottom of the cliff in the economy. The numbers are showing that the economy WILL turn around. We can expect an economic recover AT SOME POINT. The March lows were based on the prediction that the economy would fall off a cliff and the recover is a change in the prediction that it will recover and there wont be a depression. The November low could the low we will test. We will trade sideways for the next 3-6 months.
GENERAL COMMENT
2009-04-17
COMMENT

General Comment

N/A


Canadian Dollar : Probably pretty close to fair value. Comfortable at current value. Don’t see near term rebound in oil.
GENERAL COMMENT
2009-04-17
HOLD

AGF.B-T

$10.630

AGF Management (B)


(Market Call Minute) Questionable security behind some loans. Stock has run up on the expected sale of the company. Doesn’t think it is going to happen.
investment companies/funds
2009-04-17
BUY

AGU-T

$48.960

Agrium


No doubt they will benefit going forward. Likes their business. People are shorting AGU against CF. Could see a significant rebound if economy rebounds.
chemicals
2009-04-17
WAIT

BB-T

$83.350

BlackBerry


One of the best Canadian companies, creating a global market place for the use of smart phones. Concern is that what they have done is now to compete with Nokia an Apple on the consumer side of business and make it hard to make same returns. Fashion business does not work so well for Rim. Once you change to iPhone it is hard to switch back to RIM, but strength of business is how it ties back into business. When businesses start to hire again it will be strong for RIM.
electrical/electronic
2009-04-17
DON'T BUY

BBD.B-T

$3.640

Bombardier Inc (B)


Aerospace business will remain grounded for some time. Lot of value to trains, etc. Doesn’t see a turn-around in Aerospace business any time soon. ‘C’ series is starting to get orders. Don’t have to wait until 2013 when they deliver first ‘C’ series for stock to take off. Travel business is not strong. Risk is losing backlog.
transportation equip & components
2009-04-17
PAST TOP PICK

BCE-T

$26.070

BCE Inc.


(Top Pick Apr 08/08 Down 24%) Failure of takeover was perhaps the best thing that could have happened to it. 6 months or so of the private equity guys pouring through the balance sheets, looking to reduce costs was all a good thing. Valuation-wise he is a little cautious but long time you have a company that can grow dividends.
telephone utilities
2009-04-17
BUY

BMO-T

$40.410

Bank of Montreal


(Market Call Minute) Not first choice of banks – see Top Picks.
banks
2009-04-17
WAIT

CAT-N

$32.290

Caterpillar


(Market Call Minute) Excellent company and could come back in the long term. Will benefit as we come out of current economic cycle.
machinery
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