Opinions by Andrew Guy, CFA | StockChase
296
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Feb 2007

Sentry Select Capital Corp.
The Exchange Tower130 King Street West, Suite 2850Toronto, ONM5X 1A4
T: 416-861-8729 F: 416-364-1197 info@sentryselect.com
http://www.sentryselect.com/


Opinions by Andrew Guy, CFA


Signal Opinion Expert Chart

2009-09-04

COMMENT
Agrium (AGU-T)
Fertilizers. Well diversified. Shareholder friendly and increases their dividend. Very disciplined approach. Very strong return on capital. 0.23% dividend.
chemicals
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $53.890
Owned: Unknown

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2009-09-04

DON'T BUY
American International Group (AIG-N)
Very speculative. Have a huge insurance company that needs to break itself up. Has only kept going because of lifelines from the US government. The government has the right to convert its holdings into shares, which could reduce individual shareholders holdings.
insurance
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $40.050
Owned: No

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2009-09-04

DON'T BUY
Brookfield Asset Management (A) (BAM.A-T)
Have a number of different assets in different fields. Recapitalized Brookfield Renewable Power Fund (BRC.UN-T) (formerly Great Lakes Hydro Fund) and have an opportunity to continue to build as part of their asset book. Very smart management. Trading around their NAV. Too expensive.
management/diversified
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $23.280
Owned: Unknown

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2009-09-04

COMMENT
BlackBerry (BB-T)
Significant challenges in that as it moves more into consumer focused it becomes more susceptible competition from new products coming out and could be more volatile. Generate very good returns on capital. Strong free cash flow. Would be more excited if they paid a dividend.
electrical/electronic
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $84.400
Owned: Unknown

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2009-09-04

PAST TOP PICK
Diageo PLC (DEO-N)
(A Top Pick Oct 14/08. Up 2.82%.) Largest liquor company globally. Very disciplined approach to return on capital. Paying down debt and increasing dividends.
food processing
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $63.300
Owned: Yes

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2009-09-04

BUY
Fortis Inc. (FTS-T)
Regulated utility. In the last few years have done a great job of diversifying but into regulated businesses that they know very well. Stable, strong free cash flow. Good management.
electrical utilities
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $25.190
Owned: Unknown

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2009-09-04

DON'T BUY
Laurentian Bank (LB-T)
Regional bank based largely in Quebec. Has done a great job over the past few years of improving its returns on capital. Being a smaller regional bank, they are more susceptible to very focused economic situations. For a Quebec play he would prefer National Bank (NA-T).
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $38.320
Owned: Unknown

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2009-09-04

DON'T BUY
Manitoba Telecom Services (MBT-T (Dead))
Telco in Manitoba. Good job but growth is limited. Bought the old AT&T and are trying to compete against BCE (BCE-T) and Telus (T-T) in downtown Toronto. Tax losses allow them to pay a generous dividend of 8%. Comfortable that they can sustain the dividend but questions if they can grow it. Prefers Telus (T-T), Rogers (RCI.B-T) or even BCE (BCE-T).
telephone utilities
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $32.870
Owned: No

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2009-09-04

COMMENT
Merck & Company (MRK-N)
Pharmaceutical. More disciplined approach so they've been generating very strong free cash flow. A couple of their strong drugs will be coming off patent in a couple of years. In the process of merging with Schering-Plough (SGP-N). If you were going to pick a name, he would prefer Abbott (ABT-N). 5% dividend yield.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $30.700
Owned: Unknown

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2009-09-04

BUY
Methanex Corp (MX-T)
Generates strong return on capital, shareholder friendly and focused on their particular niche. This makes it an attractive business from a bottom up point of view but methanol production is a cyclical product. You want to pick your timing very carefully. If you have a longer-term outlook such as 3 years, it could be attractive. Dividend of 3.46%.
chemicals
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $20.470
Owned: Unknown

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2009-09-04

DON'T BUY
Pfizer Inc (PFE-N)
Largest drug company globally. Very strong number of products but along with most of the big pharmaceutical companies there are a large number of drugs that come off patent. About 25% of their earnings comes from one drug, Lipitor and when it comes off patent it will have a big effect on their earnings. There are better places to be.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $16.390
Owned: Unknown

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2009-09-04

COMMENT
Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (POT-T)
Fertilizers. Good returns on capital and have strong balance sheets but are not dividend friendly. A seasonal play. Possibly November/December would be a better time to play.
integrated mines
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $97.180
Owned: Unknown

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2009-09-04

BUY
Pembina Pipeline Corp (PPL-T)
Generates strong return on capital, pay out strong dividends and have growth. 10.3% yield should be safe.
pipelines
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $15.140
Owned: Yes

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2009-09-04

TOP PICK
Power Financial Corp (PWF-T)
Great history on dividends. Double digits, about 50% annual return on dividend growth. Allows you to participate in the recovery of the financial sector through the assets they own. Very well run.
finance/leasing
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $29.280
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-09-04

TOP PICK
Royal Bank (RY-T)
This and Toronto Dominion (TD-T) (See Past Top Picks) are the 2 best managed Canadian banks. At this time, this one is the better pick because of the diversification of its assets and the strong management.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $56.400
Owned: Yes

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2009-09-04

TOP PICK
S&P Global Inc (SPGI-N)
Very good long-term business. Double-digit return on capital. Consistent 10% a year dividend growth. Attractive level. Owns Business Week, a number of TV channels and publishes schoolbooks. Also owns S&P 500.
publishing/printing
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $29.100
Owned: Yes

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2009-09-04

BUY
Suncor Energy Inc (SU-T)
An attractive play right now as you get a rebound in oil prices. PetroCan that they acquired is an attractive asset. They'll be able to take a lot of costs out of this.
integrated oils
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $34.000
Owned: Unknown

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2009-09-04

PAST TOP PICK
Toronto Dominion (TD-T)
(A Top Pick Oct 14/08. Up 18.27%.) This and Royal Bank (RY-T) are the 2 most consistent performers in Canadian banks. (See Top Picks.) Increased its dividend in the later part of last year. US assets have done very well.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $67.200
Owned: Yes

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2009-09-04

PAST TOP PICK
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA-N)
(A Top Pick Oct 14/08. Up 23.38%.) World's largest generic drug company. Also have some branded drugs that are doing very well.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $51.160
Owned: Yes

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2009-09-04

BUY
Thomson Reuters Corp (TRI-T)
Very strong balance sheet. Strong returns on capital over time. Steady increase of dividends. In a competitive sector but with the merger with Reuters last year it has ended up in a duopoly in information to the desktop.
publishing/printing
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $34.260
Owned: Unknown

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2009-09-04

HOLD
Yellow Media Inc (Y-T)
A business in transition and is in a difficult situation. Moving from Yellow Page books to online services. Declining advertising revenue has happened much quicker than they can ramp up online advertising. A lot of the bad news is built into the price. Have a proven balance sheet and a strong free cash flow. 16.6% yield.
communications/media
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $4.850
Owned: Unknown

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2009-04-17

COMMENT
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 
We are closer to the bottom of the cliff in the economy. The numbers are showing that the economy WILL turn around. We can expect an economic recover AT SOME POINT. The March lows were based on the prediction that the economy would fall off a cliff and the recover is a change in the prediction that it will recover and there wont be a depression. The November low could the low we will test. We will trade sideways for the next 3-6 months.
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $0.020
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-04-17

COMMENT
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 
Canadian Dollar : Probably pretty close to fair value. Comfortable at current value. Don’t see near term rebound in oil.
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $0.020
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-04-17

HOLD
AGF Management (B) (AGF.B-T)
(Market Call Minute) Questionable security behind some loans. Stock has run up on the expected sale of the company. Doesn’t think it is going to happen.
investment companies/funds
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $10.630
Owned: Unknown

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2009-04-17

BUY
Agrium (AGU-T)
No doubt they will benefit going forward. Likes their business. People are shorting AGU against CF. Could see a significant rebound if economy rebounds.
chemicals
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $48.960
Owned: Unknown

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2009-04-17

WAIT
BlackBerry (BB-T)
One of the best Canadian companies, creating a global market place for the use of smart phones. Concern is that what they have done is now to compete with Nokia an Apple on the consumer side of business and make it hard to make same returns. Fashion business does not work so well for Rim. Once you change to iPhone it is hard to switch back to RIM, but strength of business is how it ties back into business. When businesses start to hire again it will be strong for RIM.
electrical/electronic
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $83.350
Owned: Unknown

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2009-04-17

DON'T BUY
Bombardier Inc (B) (BBD.B-T)
Aerospace business will remain grounded for some time. Lot of value to trains, etc. Doesn’t see a turn-around in Aerospace business any time soon. ‘C’ series is starting to get orders. Don’t have to wait until 2013 when they deliver first ‘C’ series for stock to take off. Travel business is not strong. Risk is losing backlog.
transportation equip & components
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $3.640
Owned: Unknown

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2009-04-17

PAST TOP PICK
BCE Inc. (BCE-T)
(Top Pick Apr 08/08 Down 24%) Failure of takeover was perhaps the best thing that could have happened to it. 6 months or so of the private equity guys pouring through the balance sheets, looking to reduce costs was all a good thing. Valuation-wise he is a little cautious but long time you have a company that can grow dividends.
telephone utilities
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $26.070
Owned: Yes

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2009-04-17

BUY
Bank of Montreal (BMO-T)
(Market Call Minute) Not first choice of banks – see Top Picks.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $40.410
Owned: Unknown

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2009-04-17

WAIT
Caterpillar (CAT-N)
(Market Call Minute) Excellent company and could come back in the long term. Will benefit as we come out of current economic cycle.
machinery
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $32.290
Owned: Unknown

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2009-04-17

TOP PICK
Diageo PLC (DEO-N)
Bought brands from Seagram’s. We drink in good times and in bad. Strong discipline on cost reductions and share money with shareholders and increased dividends. Some of their brands are the cheaper ones if you move down to cheaper brands.
food processing
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $47.260
Owned: Yes

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2009-04-17

BUY
Enbridge (ENB-T)
His choice over BA.UN-T. Long term record of steady returns, debt to equity position is kept under control. Management has shown discipline through various cycles.
oil/gas pipelines
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $37.310
Owned: Unknown

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2009-04-17

VAGUE
HBP Global Gold Bull+ ETF (HGU-T)
Gold is an important part of any portfolio and is a good protector of value. There is enough gold bugs out there that will drive up the price of gold whenever there are inflation talks out there. This is a day-to-day speculative play. There is probably some more downside on the price.
E.T.F.'s
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $8.830
Owned: Unknown

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2009-04-17

BUY
HBP S&P 500 Bear+ ETF (HSD-T)
Going down because market is going up and this is how they play. Could test 50 day moving average in the short term so there is upside potential within next month or two.
E.T.F.'s
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $27.960
Owned: Unknown

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2009-04-17

WAIT
Kraft Heinz Company (KHC-Q)
Doesn’t see any risk on dividend being ‘sliced’. Signs they may turn the company around. Interesting in picking them up. Thinks they will be in a position to meet the lower expectations for the May 9’th announcements. Might want to wait until after that announcement but after the announcement you may buy at a higher price.
food processing
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $22.670
Owned: Unknown

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2009-04-17

BUY on WEAKNESS
Manulife Financial (MFC-T)
Was oversold when it was in the $10 range. Full of pessimism. Rebound takes it back into line. Thinks it will trade sideways and you could pick it up on weakness. Don’t wait for it to hit $10. Could go back to $15-$17. Favourite play in the insurance space, but Sunlife might be a better play short term.
insurance
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $20.810
Owned: No

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2009-04-17

BUY
Power Financial Corp (PWF-T)
Excellence in quality of management. Increase dividend and share increase in earnings with shareholders. You get share in holdings in Europe. Biggest shareholder in Total in France.
finance/leasing
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $23.410
Owned: Unknown

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2009-04-17

WAIT
Rogers Communcations (B) (RCI.B-T)
This sector has done relatively well during the downturn and you don’t expect these companies to do well on the rebound and they had a CEO succession. Telus numbers impacted RCI. Bell numbers would show that Good Telus numbers were self-inflicted.
Cable
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $27.700
Owned: Unknown

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2009-04-17

TOP PICK
Royal Bank (RY-T)
Strongest bank based on valuation. Low as it has been relative to peers in 5-10 years. Dividend is safe. Write down on good will is signal that they are a strong company. Best fixed income debts out of any of the Canadian banks.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $43.150
Owned: Yes

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2009-04-17

PAST TOP PICK
Smart REIT (SRU.UN-T)
(Top Pick Apr 08/08 Down 44%) Buy it for the quality of the company, the fact that you are the Walmart landlord in Canada. Not much downside. Would buy for company and not for dividend.
investment companies/funds
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $10.150
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-04-17

BUY
Suncor Energy Inc (SU-T)
Likes the company fundamentally and long term. Acquisition will really add some value long term. Short term will be a sideways move until Petrocan deal closes in 3-6 months.
integrated oils
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $31.300
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-04-17

TOP PICK
Sysco Corp (SYY-N)
Serve food to fast food and other restaurants. Disciplined on costs. Margins are consistent +/- 6%, generate high returns on capital. Increase dividend consistently.
wholesale distributors
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $22.920
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-04-17

PAST TOP PICK
Toronto Dominion (TD-T)
(Top Pick Apr 08/08 Down 19%) will continue raising dividends, still good pick.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $49.690
Owned: Yes

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2009-04-17

BUY
Toyota (TM-N)
Validations are done differently in Japan. Good company.
Automotive
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $77.140
Owned: Unknown

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2009-04-17

BUY
TransCanada Corp (TRP-T)
(Market Call Minute) Beneficiary of Mackenzie pipeline if it ever gets built (Believes it will). Beneficiary of economic recovery and good dividend.
oil/gas pipelines
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $30.150
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-04-17

DON'T BUY
Tata Motors Ltd. (TTM-N)
This car makes smart car look like a mid-sized car and people are not confident in driving it on North American Highways. Prefers Toyota.
Automotive
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $7.220
Owned: Unknown

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2009-02-04

COMMENT
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 
Bank Preferreds: Rank higher than common shares in the hierarchy of paying out in case of an issue. New ones being issued now are called perpetual and the price does not change because of the high interest rates. Over the longer term, he would prefer common shares, which gives you potential for a rising dividend.
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $0.020
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-02-04

DON'T BUY
American International Group (AIG-N)
Difficult one. US government has provided a lot of money to it. Any benefits they get from selling off bits and pieces of the business will likely go back to the government. Also think they will lose some of the best parts of the business.
insurance
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $1.030
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-02-04

BUY
Armtec Infrastructure (ARF-T (Dead))
Produce culvert pipes and things for bridges and roads. Very good way to play the infrastructure story. 12.25% yield should be safe. Good management.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $17.640
Owned: Unknown

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2009-02-04

DON'T BUY
Bank of America (BAC-N)
Will be a challenging time for them for the next 6 months. One need a better understanding of the valuations and understand how US will be putting a floor under the financial sector.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $4.700
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-02-04

BUY
BlackBerry (BB-T)
(Market Call Minute.) Short term probably a Buy but as they move into consumer businesses, the nature of the business is changing.
electrical/electronic
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $69.100
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-02-04

PAST TOP PICK
BCE Inc. (BCE-T)
(A Top Pick Feb 6/08. Down 26.7%.) Had believed the deal was going to go through. Going forward, it's a stronger company. If you are looking for a long-term dividend growth company valuations are not bad on this. Hold.
telephone utilities
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $24.900
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-02-04

COMMENT
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T)
Two-year outlook is probably good for any of the Canadian banks. The challenge and risk with this bank is their Latin American exposure. (See Top Picks.)
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $29.720
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-02-04

BUY
CRH PLC (CRH-N)
Manufactures cement, concrete products, aggregates. Will benefit from governments spending. Better balance sheet and evaluation than Cemex (CX-N).
contractors
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $23.510
Owned: Unknown

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2009-02-04

DON'T BUY
Cemex SA (CX-N)
Will be a long-term beneficiary of spending being done by governments. Challenge in the near term is their highly levered balance sheets. Would prefer CRH (CRH-N), which has a better balance sheet and good valuation.
cement/concrete
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $8.280
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-02-04

HOLD
General Electric (GE-N)
Good proxy for the US economy. Expects recovery will not happen until the 2nd half of this year. Will probably trade sideways with potential of negative headlines because of their financial arm and the impact on their dividend and their AAA rating.
electrical/electronic
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $11.260
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-02-04

COMMENT
Intact Financial (IFC-T)
Largest property/casualty insurer in Canada. ING globally had some balance sheet challenges. Selling ING Canada was a way for them to raise $1.5 billion. Very well run operation. Because of the economy, there may be questions if they can get the same rates.
insurance
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $28.820
Owned: Unknown

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2009-02-04

BUY
Laurentian Bank (LB-T)
(Market Call Minute.) Would prefer the bigger cap Canadian banks given their better diversification. They have done a very good job in improving their results.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $28.220
Owned: Unknown

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2009-02-04

COMMENT
3M Co. (MMM-N)
Very strong management team. Disciplined approach to reinventing their business regularly. Grown its dividends steadily.
mngmnt/diversified
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $50.840
Owned: Unknown

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2009-02-04

HOLD
Metro Inc (A) (MRU-T)
Really likes this one. Has surprised over the years. Very shareholder friendly. Very disciplined management. Trading in line with the industry average at about 13X PE.
food stores
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $38.700
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-02-04

WAIT
Morgan Stanley (MS-N)
As a banker and being in the financial investment side and tied to economic recovery, you can wait until May or June before looking at this one.
investment companies/funds
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $22.010
Owned: Unknown

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2009-02-04

HOLD
Saputo Inc. (SAP-T)
(Market Call Minute.) Difficult one. Earnings are just coming out which may change the story. Longer-term it is a Buy but in the short term it is a Hold.
food processing
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $18.750
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-02-04

PAST TOP PICK
Smart REIT (SRU.UN-T)
(A Top Pick Feb 6/08. Down 47%.) Their tenant Wal-Mart is one of the strongest retail names in North America and he was surprised that this has not done better. Still a Buy.
investment companies/funds
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $11.090
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-02-04

COMMENT
Suncor Energy Inc (SU-T)
Have done a great job building their oil sands capacity. They will continue to be a very strong player in the oil sands. The challenge with the oil sands companies is the high capital costs and getting financing. If you're a long-term buyer this is probably a good time. Probably volatile over the next 6 months.
integrated oils
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $24.300
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-02-04

TOP PICK
Sysco Corp (SYY-N)
World's largest food service company. Very diverse client base with about 150,000 clients including Wendy's. Disciplined management. Very stable gross margins. Use cash flow to buy back shares and grow dividends.
wholesale distributors
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $23.970
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-02-04

TOP PICK
Toronto Dominion (TD-T)
(A Top Pick Feb 6/08. Down 38%.) Excellent management with a very disciplined approach on managing. Very well positioned to take part in a recovery. US business is potentially in great shape with more deposits than loans.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $38.740
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-02-04

TOP PICK
Thomson Reuters Corp (TRI-T)
People look at this as being very tied to equity markets. Thomson and Reuters gives significant amounts of synergy. Legal software should do well.
publishing/printing
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $30.600
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-02-04

DON'T BUY
TorstarCorp (B) (TS.B-T)
2 businesses. Harlequin romances have had challenges over the last few years but seems to be turning around. Toronto Star has the largest newspaper circulation. This is a far more challenging business. Balance sheet is somewhat stretched.
publishing/printing
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $7.830
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-02-04

COMMENT
Unilever NV (UN-N)
Well positioned on a global basis. Focused their product line on growth. Very long history of paying their dividends so presume it is safe. Payout ratio is less than 50%.
food processing
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $21.970
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-02-04

BUY
Visa Inc. (V-N)
(Market Call Minute.) Expecting a recovery in the US economy in the second half of the year.
other services
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $49.130
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

COMMENT
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 
Canadian Banks Preferred Shares: Banks have issued a lot of preferred shares partially as a response to the global issues that we have seen lately. Relatively cheaper money for the banks as opposed to new common issue. The risk is capital depreciation on your investment.
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $0.020
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

COMMENT
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 
Oil: $40 to $55 would be a reasonable price he would expect in the short-term. There had been far too much of a spike on the upside at $140 but the recent $36 range was too low.
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $0.020
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

DON'T BUY
AGF Management (B) (AGF.B-T)
Mutual funds are very market sensitive so you don't want to own one until you know the market is going up. This one has some challenges. They were lending a lot of money against the purchase of mutual funds. It has been a headache but they will probably do okay with it.
investment companies/funds
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $10.480
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

SELL
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD-Q)
(Market Call Minute.) Company has missed every product cycle. Acquired ATI and still are missing the cycles. Following further behind its competitors.
electrical/electronic
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $2.780
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

COMMENT
Aecon Group Inc (ARE-T)
The problem with the infrastructure spending is that it takes a long time and benefits are probably more than a year out.
contractors
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $10.990
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

BUY
Bell Aliant (BA-T (Dead))
The assets that were spun into this from BCE, excluded the wireless, which is where all the growth in the telecom space is. Its regional nature means less competition but wireless and cable is having an impact. A decent yield play. Not a homerun but a decent single.
Utilities
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $25.410
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

DON'T BUY
Bombardier Inc (B) (BBD.B-T)
Trains and infrastructure products are doing very well and will benefit from governments' infrastructure stimuli. Aerospace side has been hurt by the economy, which is what the market has been focusing on. Wait for a better outlook on the economy.
transportation equip & components
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $4.760
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

TOP PICK
BCE Inc. (BCE-T)
(A Top Pick Dec 27/07. Down 36%.) New strategy cut a ton of costs and a lot of management layers. Earnings numbers will offset some of the slowdown in wire line business. Looking for stronger earnings growth than the market is expecting.
telephone utilities
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $24.210
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

TOP PICK
Bank of Montreal (BMO-T)
Likes Canadian banks. This one has been more heavily impacted. Bank with a 10% capital and a 8.5%-9% yield and trading at 8X earnings, is a fairly attractive place to put your money.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $34.660
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

BUY
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T)
(Market Call Minute.) Very strong capital ratios. Dividends are safe. Expecting a turnaround in the next little while.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $55.110
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

SELL
Deutsche Bank AG (DB-N)
(Market Call Minute.) High-end investment bank and doesn't have the same capital position as Canadian banks.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $38.080
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

WATCH
Dow Chemical (DOW-N Merged)
Pullout by Kuwait on the expected takeover of Rohm & Haas Co. Some clarity is needed as to whether they pay the full $78 financing, selling some assets there will be some volatility in the short-term. Longer-term an excellent company. 10.6% dividend.
chemicals
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $16.050
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

COMMENT
Manulife Financial (MFC-T)
Difficult to examine all the moving parts of insurance companies. If you don't expect an improvement in the credit cycle or a rebound in the equity markets, then you get flat earnings.
insurance
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $24.110
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

BUY
National Bank of Canada (NA-T)
(Market Call Minute.) Any of the Canadian banks are Buys and this one is not a bad name.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $34.000
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

DON'T BUY
Nova Chemicals Corp. (NCX-T)
A frustrating name. Essentially 2 businesses with polyethylene being good but styrenics has never really paid off. We prefer others.
chemicals
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $7.220
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

COMMENT
SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. (SNC-T)
Infrastructure can take a long time to put in place and it could be 6 to 9 months before they benefit. Engineering should be good for them but it’s trading at a very high valuation at 16X next year's earnings.
contractors
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $38.600
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

PAST TOP PICK
Smart REIT (SRU.UN-T)
(A Top Pick Dec 27/07. Down 42%.) 12% yield is safe. Wal-Mart is the anchor for the bulk of their malls. Still very well positioned. Still a Buy.
investment companies/funds
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $12.450
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

PAST TOP PICK
Toronto Dominion (TD-T)
(A Top Pick Dec 27/07. Down 30%.) Still likes. Quality management. Strong retail focus. One of the few banks that grew its dividends. Still a Buy.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $46.560
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

DON'T BUY
Teck Resources Ltd. (B) (TECK.B-T)
Took on a large debt to acquire Fording Coal. A fine line whether they will be able to skate through their bank lines. Depends on your call on zinc, metallurgical coal and their other commodities. Inherently a call on the Asian economies. Risky.
precious metals
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $8.190
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

TOP PICK
Thomson Reuters Corp (TRI-T)
Great free cash flow company. A much better balanced company than it was. Another way to play this is to take out the ADR (Thomson Reuters PLC (TRIN-Q)) listed in the US, which gives you about a 20% discount to the Canadian price.
publishing/printing
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $35.340
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

BUY
Textron Inc (TXT-N)
(Market Call Minute.) Will benefit from government spending initiatives. Largely a military spending and high-tech infrastructure.
mngmnt/diversified
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $16.040
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2009-01-06

BUY
Yellow Media Inc (Y-T)
Have regularly beat numbers. Probably one of the best management teams in Canada. Challenge is that they are in the midst of a transition from print to an online model.
communications/media
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $6.950
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

DON'T BUY
Agrium (AGU-T)
Commodities are off and could continue to fall because Chinese allowed export of fertilizer for the first time in a long time. Very strong balance sheet. Nice stable business but there are issues with credit for farmers and about half their business is retail stores. Bad weather has made it difficult for US farmers to get their crops off.
chemicals
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $36.070
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

DON'T BUY
Artis Real Estate Investment Trust (AX.UN-T)
This has always been one of his favourite income trusts on the REIT side. Very well managed. If you are concerned about a slowing economy in Western Canada, it is probably a little too early to buy.
property mngmnt/investment
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $7.930
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

BUY
Bank of America (BAC-N)
Increasing their stake in the Chinese Construction Bank, the 3rd largest bank in China, was a bit of a surprise. Hasn't seen anything to suggest that the government is upset about this. Acquisition of Merrill Lynch will hopefully provide them with counter cyclical strength as well as some good opportunities. Next 3 months you might be able to get it cheaper but this is a good opportunity.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $13.060
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

BUY
BCE Inc. (BCE-T)
His view is that the deal is going to go through at $42.75 on Dec 12. Doesn't understand why it continues to trade at this attractive discount. If the deal fails, you still end up with a much stronger company and management team. He is continuing to Buy.
telephone utilities
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $36.500
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

COMMENT
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T)
Just came out with a write down but expect other banks will follow suit. Banks’ years are at the end of October so they are getting ready to report 4th quarter numbers. Likes this one. Have a very strong management team. Excellent global exposure and focus on costs. Concerned with their exposure to Latin America and Mexico.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $35.240
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

COMMENT
CitiGroup (C-N)
A lot of headline risks. Stock could be cheaper over the next 2 months. If you own, you could Sell and then buy it back later but you could miss the risk of a turnaround.
insurance
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $6.400
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

BUY
Canadian Oil Sands (COS-T (Acquired)
Very oil levered. Oil sands production tends to be higher cost but it is well managed. It really comes down to your call on oil. Looking globally, the best reserves continue to be in the oil sands. This should continue to do very well.
oil/gas
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $22.750
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

DON'T BUY
Cemex SA (CX-N)
Mexican cement company. Very consolidated industry. There are issues in Europe as they questioned the pricing. With governments putting in infrastructure spending, most of it requires cement. This is not the name you would want, as its balance sheet is very stretched. Generates good free cash flow, but most of it goes to the banks for the next couple of years.
cement/concrete
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $4.580
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

BUY
General Electric (GE-N)
Company has recently reiterated that the dividend is safe. Have also positioned themselves to get some capital from the US government. Very well managed and very strong balance sheet. Very well-positioned to come out of this cycle.
electrical/electronic
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $14.450
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

PAST TOP PICK
H&R Real Estate Inv Trust (HR.UN-T)
(A Top Pick Nov 2/07. Down 68%.) Picked it expecting they would get financing for the construction of the Bow in Calgary. Better opportunities considering the risk, so Sell.
property mngmnt/investment
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $6.050
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

DON'T BUY
LuLulemon Athletica (LLL-T (Dead))
(Market Call Minute.) High multiple niche player and will have a hard time continuing to grow as consumer purchases slow down.
clothing stores
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $9.220
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

BUY
Manulife Financial (MFC-T)
Best way to own insurance companies is to buy them for the long-term 3, 5, 10 year outlook. They should continue to grow on a slow and steady basis. Could be some volatility in the next 3 months.
insurance
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $20.970
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

PAST TOP PICK
Methanex Corp (MX-T)
(A Top Pick Nov 2/07. Down 50%.) Excellent, well-managed company. Strong franchise and generating lots of free cash flow. The challenge: it is in the commodities business. Very strong/sustainable dividend. Still a Buy.
chemicals
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $12.080
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

STRONG BUY
Seaspan Corp. (SSW-N)
Have liked this company for a number of years. Leases container ships on a long-term, fixed cost basis with clients paying for fuel. Very conservative management team. Cash on their balance sheet to buy ships 3 to 5 years out. 23% yield.
Transportation
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $7.010
Owned: Yes

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

TOP PICK
Toronto Dominion (TD-T)
(A Top Pick Nov 2/07. Down 23%.) Best positioned of the Canadian banks. Excellent management. Very disciplined approach in running the business. The most retail of the banks. Building a very strong franchise in Northeast US.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $49.930
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

TOP PICK
Teva Pharmaceutical (TEVA-N)
World's leading generic drug manufacturer. Buying Barr Laboratories, which will broaden its product range and increase its strength. Generic drugs are a solution to a lot of the problems that are facing the global health industry.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $41.800
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

DON'T BUY
Toyota (TM-N)
(Market Call Minute.) Would avoid the auto industry. Balance sheets are stretched and autos are not selling.
Automotive
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $59.760
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

TOP PICK
Thomson Reuters Corp (TRI-T)
Becoming a dominant player in providing information to the financial markets, lawyers and accountants. Inexpensive stock.
publishing/printing
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $27.230
Owned: No

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

SELL
Visa Inc. (V-N)
(Market Call Minute.) He would Sell in the short-term and Buy in the long-term.
other services
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $51.580
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-11-19

BUY
Yellow Media Inc (Y-T)
(Market Call Minute.) One of the best players in that industry. Great management team.
communications/media
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $6.850
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-10-14

COMMENT
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 
Key is to watch what happens in the bond market. TED spread narrowed in which suggests some liquidity in the markets, but there’s still along way to go. This is the kind of market where everything looks like it has great value, but they stay disciplined and look at companies with lots of free cash flow, strong balance sheets and leaders in their industry. They have been picking away over the last couple of weeks.
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $0.020
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-10-14

COMMENT
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 
Last week was as close to a capitulation as you are going to get, because there was a big spike in volumes – a final sell-off, big panic by governments to try to solve problems, we were no longer complacent – our finance minister had to admit something was going wrong in the world. He things we had the capitulation last week, but that doesn’t mean things will go straight up. We will trade sideways for a while.
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $0.020
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-10-14

DON'T BUY
Agrium (AGU-T)
50% of its results from selling agricultural products throughout North America, not just pot ash. Retail business will help it do well through all the cycles. Starting to look more favorably at this from a valuation point of view but don’t count on it going back up where it was before.
chemicals
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $46.780
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-10-14

BUY
Boeing (BA-N)
Great company that had a lot of problems in recent days because of concerns over financing of the jets. The new planes that people are producing are more fuel efficient, cleaner and if you are concerned about higher oil prices, airlines still need to get rid of older planes.
Transportation
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $45.070
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-10-14

BUY
Bank of America (BAC-N)
Made a couple of very attractive acquisitions and going forward you are going to get a banking system that looks a lot more like the Canadian system. Bank of America is going to be one of the surviving 5 or 6. Don’t buy this if you think the US is headed for a depression, which he doesn’t feel.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $26.530
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-10-14

DON'T BUY
Bank of Montreal (BMO-T)
Over 7% yield last week. Potentially this can grow at twice the rate of a bond. This would not be his first choice for a bank, but banks are very attractively priced and will be laughing in a couple of years.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $42.080
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-10-14

DON'T BUY
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T)
Is interesting because it is te Canadian bank that is the most international. Not a very large exposure into the United States. But you will see some weakening in Mexico and Latin America. These will make it do more poorly than other Canadian Banks, though.
banks
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $44.500
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart

2008-10-14

BUY
Canadian National R.R. (CNR-T)
Excellent company, revolutionized train transportation in North America. Lowest cost producer, lots of free cash flow. Will trade in a range up to $60 for a while but will be worth a lot more than that longer term.
Transportation
Andrew Guy, CFA

Portfolio Manager, Sentry Select Capital Corp.

Price: $49.050
Owned: Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
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