Michael Decter
Member since: Nov '06
President & CEO at
Lawrence Decter Investment Counsel
Lawrence Decter Investment Counsel
1272 Opinions
Latest Top Picks
(A Top Pick Oct 02/19, Up 32%) A Winnipeg success story in auto body shops. It branched out across Canada, then into the U.S., yet there's still room to grow.
(A Top Pick Oct 02/19, Up 45%) There's room to own both this and Disney, which has worked out well for him. The quality of content on both streamers is phenomenal and they're global.
(A Top Pick Oct 02/19, Up 7%) They reported today and miss expectations. It's a big global company. There's global demand for their medical devices; in Asia, for instance, there's rising heart disease. So, Medtronic can fulfill this demand.
TD his other big bank holding, but JPM has outperformed it. It's held up. They've invested tens of billions in technology. A better management culture than its peers, like Citi. He doesn't expect a US recession. (Analysts’ price target is $139.27)
A good acquirer and integrator and have a good position in hip and knee replacement. They're aiming for 1,000 robotic installations worldwide, now at 850. They took a drop in their last purchase but they've bounced back. (Analysts’ price target is $232.92)
Signal
Opinion
Expert
Chart
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 18, 2020
It's surprising how well markets have held up given all the uncertainty: who the Democratic nominee will be and the election's outcome, the Canadian minority government and several minority provincial ones, like BC. BC's premier is in the crosshairs, because the gasline project there is under fire. Then, there's the coronavirus and its worldwide impact. All these factors may tip us into slow growth or even recession. Recalling SARS, that lasted from November through May. Maybe that's the timeline for the coronavirus. Can we buy dips? Looking at Air Canada, the price hasn't dipped because capacity is high, given the Airbus 737 Max ban. He doesn't know how long the virus will last.
Show full opinionHide full opinion
It's surprising how well markets have held up given all the uncertainty: who the Democratic nominee will be and the election's outcome, the Canadian minority government and several minority provincial ones, like BC. BC's premier is in the crosshairs, because the gasline project there is under fire. Then, there's the coronavirus and its worldwide impact. All these factors may tip us into slow growth or even recession. Recalling SARS, that lasted from November through May. Maybe that's the timeline for the coronavirus. Can we buy dips? Looking at Air Canada, the price hasn't dipped because capacity is high, given the Airbus 737 Max ban. He doesn't know how long the virus will last.
BUY
BUY
February 18, 2020
He just bought a lot of this and likes tech, especially those that grow by acquiring like OTEX. It's been good at finding additional products to include in their packages. He likes this for the long-haul. Tech is a safe space in the coming 12-18 months. Canadian tech is cheaper than the U.S. FAANGs, though he owns Netflix and Disney.
He just bought a lot of this and likes tech, especially those that grow by acquiring like OTEX. It's been good at finding additional products to include in their packages. He likes this for the long-haul. Tech is a safe space in the coming 12-18 months. Canadian tech is cheaper than the U.S. FAANGs, though he owns Netflix and Disney.
computer software/processing
HOLD
HOLD
February 18, 2020
He's long owned this. They run diagnostic imaging centres in the U.S. They charge half what hospitals do, which is attracting businesses. AKU has one big competitor in the U.S. that is twice the size of AKU. He believes the competitor will one day buy AKU. He'll wait 18 months for this take-out to happen.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe's long owned this. They run diagnostic imaging centres in the U.S. They charge half what hospitals do, which is attracting businesses. AKU has one big competitor in the U.S. that is twice the size of AKU. He believes the competitor will one day buy AKU. He'll wait 18 months for this take-out to happen.
medical services
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 18, 2020
Disappointing. If one chemical was working, another wouldn't. He got worn out by disappointment and sold. CHE is tied to the pulp and paper industry which has had a rough ride. Rail shutdowns won't help. Not sure if they can sustain their dividend. Pays a 14% dividend.
Show full opinionHide full opinionDisappointing. If one chemical was working, another wouldn't. He got worn out by disappointment and sold. CHE is tied to the pulp and paper industry which has had a rough ride. Rail shutdowns won't help. Not sure if they can sustain their dividend. Pays a 14% dividend.
chemicals
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 18, 2020
(A Top Pick Oct 02/19, Up 32%) A Winnipeg success story in auto body shops. It branched out across Canada, then into the U.S., yet there's still room to grow.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Oct 02/19, Up 32%) A Winnipeg success story in auto body shops. It branched out across Canada, then into the U.S., yet there's still room to grow.
other services
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 18, 2020
(A Top Pick Oct 02/19, Up 45%) There's room to own both this and Disney, which has worked out well for him. The quality of content on both streamers is phenomenal and they're global.
(A Top Pick Oct 02/19, Up 45%) There's room to own both this and Disney, which has worked out well for him. The quality of content on both streamers is phenomenal and they're global.
Unknown
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
February 18, 2020
(A Top Pick Oct 02/19, Up 7%) They reported today and miss expectations. It's a big global company. There's global demand for their medical devices; in Asia, for instance, there's rising heart disease. So, Medtronic can fulfill this demand.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Oct 02/19, Up 7%) They reported today and miss expectations. It's a big global company. There's global demand for their medical devices; in Asia, for instance, there's rising heart disease. So, Medtronic can fulfill this demand.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
PARTIAL BUY
PARTIAL BUY
February 18, 2020
They've re-focussed internationally beyond Canada, and they can expand existing pipelines, which are a little easier (getting permission) to build than brand-new ones. He's added to this recently. You can nibble into it now over, say, three weeks in three tranches.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey've re-focussed internationally beyond Canada, and they can expand existing pipelines, which are a little easier (getting permission) to build than brand-new ones. He's added to this recently. You can nibble into it now over, say, three weeks in three tranches.
oil/gas pipelines
BUY
BUY
February 18, 2020
He's long owned them. Their business of taking care of all the shipping paperwork (logistics) for a business is spot on. Their long-term return has been fantastic and they have a long way to go still. They benefit from the chaos in trading now (i.e. Trump's tariffs).
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe's long owned them. Their business of taking care of all the shipping paperwork (logistics) for a business is spot on. Their long-term return has been fantastic and they have a long way to go still. They benefit from the chaos in trading now (i.e. Trump's tariffs).
computer software/processing
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 18, 2020
The problem with this sector is divestment by pensions, for example, though Husky is in the top tier of companies.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThe problem with this sector is divestment by pensions, for example, though Husky is in the top tier of companies.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
February 18, 2020
They're definitely in China, but he doesn't know their exposure now. The really challenge is an aging population and a system that doesn't manage chronic diseases well. Be careful with Manulife, but also all insurers.
Show full opinionHide full opinionThey're definitely in China, but he doesn't know their exposure now. The really challenge is an aging population and a system that doesn't manage chronic diseases well. Be careful with Manulife, but also all insurers.
insurance
WATCH
WATCH
February 18, 2020
Refunding of tariffs It's on his shortlist as he watches the forestry group. The tariffs refund are definitely good. He wants to see longer-term stability in housing starts first. Reason is that a lot of housing are steel and concrete condos, not wooden houses. The whole sector is under a cloud, though bottoming now. He'd watch this another quarter.
Show full opinionHide full opinionRefunding of tariffs It's on his shortlist as he watches the forestry group. The tariffs refund are definitely good. He wants to see longer-term stability in housing starts first. Reason is that a lot of housing are steel and concrete condos, not wooden houses. The whole sector is under a cloud, though bottoming now. He'd watch this another quarter.
west coast forestry
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 18, 2020
He doesn't own much oil--too uncertainty. But royalty companies have some advantages and FRU is a good company. If you expect a rebound in energy stocks (he doubts it), FRU isn't a bad way to play. The dividend is relatively secure.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe doesn't own much oil--too uncertainty. But royalty companies have some advantages and FRU is a good company. If you expect a rebound in energy stocks (he doubts it), FRU isn't a bad way to play. The dividend is relatively secure.
oil/gas
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
February 18, 2020
He has a positive outlook on this. He's had a great run on it. It may be toppy now, but he expects it to be higher this year, but could dip by then. Wait for a drop to get in.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe has a positive outlook on this. He's had a great run on it. It may be toppy now, but he expects it to be higher this year, but could dip by then. Wait for a drop to get in.
computer software/processing
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 18, 2020
TD his other big bank holding, but JPM has outperformed it. It's held up. They've invested tens of billions in technology. A better management culture than its peers, like Citi. He doesn't expect a US recession. (Analysts’ price target is $139.27)
Financial Services
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 18, 2020
A good acquirer and integrator and have a good position in hip and knee replacement. They're aiming for 1,000 robotic installations worldwide, now at 850. They took a drop in their last purchase but they've bounced back. (Analysts’ price target is $232.92)
Show full opinionHide full opinionA good acquirer and integrator and have a good position in hip and knee replacement. They're aiming for 1,000 robotic installations worldwide, now at 850. They took a drop in their last purchase but they've bounced back. (Analysts’ price target is $232.92)
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
February 18, 2020
They're a tech company, not financial, and strong in tech. You can still get in now. They're fantastic at claims processing. They have a big edge over Mastercard. Visa won't be hurt by fintech. (Analysts’ price target is $226.31)
They're a tech company, not financial, and strong in tech. You can still get in now. They're fantastic at claims processing. They have a big edge over Mastercard. Visa won't be hurt by fintech. (Analysts’ price target is $226.31)
other services
BUY
BUY
February 18, 2020
It's his biggest bank holding, which he considers a North American bank. All Canadian banks have suffered from low interest rates; they're rangebound. But he's sticking with this, because the US economy is still sound where TD has half its business. TD acquired US companies at a good price. 18 months from now, TD will be much higher. He also like JPM.
It's his biggest bank holding, which he considers a North American bank. All Canadian banks have suffered from low interest rates; they're rangebound. But he's sticking with this, because the US economy is still sound where TD has half its business. TD acquired US companies at a good price. 18 months from now, TD will be much higher. He also like JPM.
banks
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 18, 2020
Mutual funds There are so many of them that he comment or recommend a particular one, but generally a mutual fund gives you diversity and you're protected from downside by a particular stock. To see if those running the fund are thoughtful, check their long-term performance. The negative is that mutual fund charge a high fee (an MER of 2-2.5%). That's why ETFs are popular. But an active manager will choose the better-performing stocks and ignore the weaker ones. Also look at what's held in the mutual fund: do you know these companies?
Show full opinionHide full opinionMutual funds There are so many of them that he comment or recommend a particular one, but generally a mutual fund gives you diversity and you're protected from downside by a particular stock. To see if those running the fund are thoughtful, check their long-term performance. The negative is that mutual fund charge a high fee (an MER of 2-2.5%). That's why ETFs are popular. But an active manager will choose the better-performing stocks and ignore the weaker ones. Also look at what's held in the mutual fund: do you know these companies?
WEAK BUY
WEAK BUY
February 18, 2020
It's gone sideways with the meatless burger and a brilliant ad campaign, but competitors have caught up a lot. He owns a little only. It doesn't trade in big volumes though. He'd still buy it. They have good locations in places like airports. Pays a good dividend. A long-term investment. Also, A&W is conscious of ESG and has made green initiatives to attract younger customers and investors.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt's gone sideways with the meatless burger and a brilliant ad campaign, but competitors have caught up a lot. He owns a little only. It doesn't trade in big volumes though. He'd still buy it. They have good locations in places like airports. Pays a good dividend. A long-term investment. Also, A&W is conscious of ESG and has made green initiatives to attract younger customers and investors.
investment companies/funds
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 12, 2019
It's the 9th inning for the markets with a rotation into stocks. Trump may or may not be impeached, with perhaps a blunted impact. A US-China trade deal appears likely before the end of the year. Brexit has been kicked down the road. The markets have had a great run, but there remains a lot of cash on the sidelines. After tax-loss selling, he expects some buying back in of stocks that have done well. It won't be a flat-out Santa Claus Rally, and investors will be happy if levels remain this high. But volatility is gone. Economic data will be crucial. If Hong Kong became Tiennamen Square, there will be a very negative reaction in markets and trade talks. January may see some selling and volatility.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt's the 9th inning for the markets with a rotation into stocks. Trump may or may not be impeached, with perhaps a blunted impact. A US-China trade deal appears likely before the end of the year. Brexit has been kicked down the road. The markets have had a great run, but there remains a lot of cash on the sidelines. After tax-loss selling, he expects some buying back in of stocks that have done well. It won't be a flat-out Santa Claus Rally, and investors will be happy if levels remain this high. But volatility is gone. Economic data will be crucial. If Hong Kong became Tiennamen Square, there will be a very negative reaction in markets and trade talks. January may see some selling and volatility.
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
November 12, 2019
For TFSA? It's had a great run, but buy on a pullback, likely in January. Good to own.
Show full opinionHide full opinionFor TFSA? It's had a great run, but buy on a pullback, likely in January. Good to own.
food services
BUY
BUY
November 12, 2019
Utilities vs. financials as utilities sell off, but during low interest rates He's been seeing risk-on and -off trades of only short duration. AQN is his 5th-largest holding. You can step into American banks now, like JP Morgan, but it's perfectly fine to own both utilities and financials. He still likes AQN. Pension funds are moving away from fossil fuels into renewables; those funds like yield and established companies like AQN or Northland Power. Don't worry about the recent modest decline in AQN.
Show full opinionHide full opinionUtilities vs. financials as utilities sell off, but during low interest rates He's been seeing risk-on and -off trades of only short duration. AQN is his 5th-largest holding. You can step into American banks now, like JP Morgan, but it's perfectly fine to own both utilities and financials. He still likes AQN. Pension funds are moving away from fossil fuels into renewables; those funds like yield and established companies like AQN or Northland Power. Don't worry about the recent modest decline in AQN.
electrical utilities
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 12, 2019
It was his largest holding for many years, but he didn't count on that route from north Alberta being blocked off. IPL has sold some assets. He now owns some Pembina and Keyera. IPL is a little risky until the fate of the oil sands is decided; if that oil doesn't get to market, then IPL is vulnerable.
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt was his largest holding for many years, but he didn't count on that route from north Alberta being blocked off. IPL has sold some assets. He now owns some Pembina and Keyera. IPL is a little risky until the fate of the oil sands is decided; if that oil doesn't get to market, then IPL is vulnerable.
oil pipelines
BUY
BUY
November 12, 2019
He sold his shares, which he regrets. It's a stock you buy and never look at again. That said, competitors like Tim Horton's are getting busy. Starbucks are good at nudging up prices, but no they can't grow at a spectactular rate. SBUX is safe.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe sold his shares, which he regrets. It's a stock you buy and never look at again. That said, competitors like Tim Horton's are getting busy. Starbucks are good at nudging up prices, but no they can't grow at a spectactular rate. SBUX is safe.
food services
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 12, 2019
He used to own them for a long time, but later they ran into various headwinds and disappointed. They steadily grew, then volatility set in a few years ago. That volatility triggered his sell. He hasn't looked at it lately.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe used to own them for a long time, but later they ran into various headwinds and disappointed. They steadily grew, then volatility set in a few years ago. That volatility triggered his sell. He hasn't looked at it lately.
packaging/containers
STRONG BUY
STRONG BUY
November 12, 2019
A big holding for him. BAM is the top Brookfield stock and has phenomenally grown in recent years. There's even more room to grow in real estate, infrastructure and private equity. They are alternate investments for folks like pension funds which appeal to them because these funds are more than super-safe bonds. A core holding.
A big holding for him. BAM is the top Brookfield stock and has phenomenally grown in recent years. There's even more room to grow in real estate, infrastructure and private equity. They are alternate investments for folks like pension funds which appeal to them because these funds are more than super-safe bonds. A core holding.
management/diversified
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 12, 2019
(A Top Pick Apr 15/19, Down 24%) Sold it. He was convinced print media would come back and it didn't. It was a mistake.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Apr 15/19, Down 24%) Sold it. He was convinced print media would come back and it didn't. It was a mistake.
entertainment services
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 12, 2019
(A Top Pick Apr 15/19, Up 33%) The Chinese are keen on brands, and Apple is superb with branding. He hung onto it, not selling as it rose. Apple's vast cash is a hedge if there's any downturn.
Show full opinionHide full opinion(A Top Pick Apr 15/19, Up 33%) The Chinese are keen on brands, and Apple is superb with branding. He hung onto it, not selling as it rose. Apple's vast cash is a hedge if there's any downturn.
electrical/electronic
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
November 12, 2019
(A Top Pick Apr 15/19, Up 30%) It's become a consolidator (which he prefers to a roll-up), because being a consolidator gives Boyd a platform for acquisitions and reduces overall costs. Boyd is a go-to to consolidate tens of thousands of auto body shops. They will expand to the U.S. as a stock, which is okay to hold in an RRSP but not a taxable account.
(A Top Pick Apr 15/19, Up 30%) It's become a consolidator (which he prefers to a roll-up), because being a consolidator gives Boyd a platform for acquisitions and reduces overall costs. Boyd is a go-to to consolidate tens of thousands of auto body shops. They will expand to the U.S. as a stock, which is okay to hold in an RRSP but not a taxable account.
other services
BUY
BUY
November 12, 2019
Likes it. It's hit some resistance with analyst downgrades. A solid company with leadership in advertising, namely Beyond Meat. They can grow with their franchise structure. Brilliant to open at Toronto's airport next to Starbucks. He sees growth in market share. Also, boomers stay loyal to their brands as they age.
Show full opinionHide full opinionLikes it. It's hit some resistance with analyst downgrades. A solid company with leadership in advertising, namely Beyond Meat. They can grow with their franchise structure. Brilliant to open at Toronto's airport next to Starbucks. He sees growth in market share. Also, boomers stay loyal to their brands as they age.
investment companies/funds
BUY
BUY
November 12, 2019
He owns PWF instead, which pays a slightly higher dividend. POW is a solid company that's grown for a long time. The generation that's inherited that company may lack the drive of the founder but they are operating steadily. Worth holding onto, a buy-and-hold.
He owns PWF instead, which pays a slightly higher dividend. POW is a solid company that's grown for a long time. The generation that's inherited that company may lack the drive of the founder but they are operating steadily. Worth holding onto, a buy-and-hold.
mngmnt/diversified
COMMENT
COMMENT
November 12, 2019
Will we see a repeat of the sharp December 2018 pullback? Possibly, but unlikely. There'd have to be a combination of forces that spook the market, like the trade deal, Brexit, etc. If there was a pullback, it would be weaker than Dec. 2018. He expects a calm Christmas.
Will we see a repeat of the sharp December 2018 pullback? Possibly, but unlikely. There'd have to be a combination of forces that spook the market, like the trade deal, Brexit, etc. If there was a pullback, it would be weaker than Dec. 2018. He expects a calm Christmas.
WATCH
WATCH
November 12, 2019
He's watching it. GC has come off, but he's uncertain why. Wait and see. A hold if he already owned it.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe's watching it. GC has come off, but he's uncertain why. Wait and see. A hold if he already owned it.
entertainment services
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 12, 2019
He owned it. SJ is coming back into range and had a decent quarter. He likes their fundamental business, but the replacement cycles can vary a lot. He'll wait a quarter or two.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe owned it. SJ is coming back into range and had a decent quarter. He likes their fundamental business, but the replacement cycles can vary a lot. He'll wait a quarter or two.
misc industrial products
PARTIAL SELL
PARTIAL SELL
November 12, 2019
Start selling it off gradually. ALA may go higher, but take profits a bit.
Show full opinionHide full opinionStart selling it off gradually. ALA may go higher, but take profits a bit.
oil/gas
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
November 12, 2019
High dividends scare him. VET's is 14%. Maybe energy ticks up so you can own this. But maybe don't buy this because the dividend is so high. There are so many moving parts to energy stocks--Saudi Aramco will suck up a lot of capital. Also, institutional investors don't want to own fossil fuels.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHigh dividends scare him. VET's is 14%. Maybe energy ticks up so you can own this. But maybe don't buy this because the dividend is so high. There are so many moving parts to energy stocks--Saudi Aramco will suck up a lot of capital. Also, institutional investors don't want to own fossil fuels.
oil/gas
STRONG BUY
STRONG BUY
November 12, 2019
Pays a 4.05% dividend. A terrific company. They're buying back stock steadily which will eventually increase the stock price. They're paying off a big acquisition quickly. A definite buy, but they face the headwind of a challenging time for Canadian oil. His top choice in Canadian energy.
Show full opinionHide full opinionPays a 4.05% dividend. A terrific company. They're buying back stock steadily which will eventually increase the stock price. They're paying off a big acquisition quickly. A definite buy, but they face the headwind of a challenging time for Canadian oil. His top choice in Canadian energy.
oil/gas
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
November 12, 2019
A consolidator in storage--building and acquiring storage companies. Demographics help SVI as again boomers move out of their old houses and have to store their stuff. He's long owned this. Has huge growth ahead. (Analysts’ price target is $3.54)
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